There is no question that GTA will have immersive multiplayer. It seems to me (bring it on, GAFfers) that the vast majority of time spent on multiplayer is spent on military-style FPS (games with a clear balance that makes sense) or on sports multiplayer (again, balanced in a way that makes sense). Tomb Raider is trying to do this with Scavenger vs. Survivor (or something like that), other games have tried it, but none has succeeded in a mass-market way like military shooters, space shooters, and sports games. I think that 80% or more of multiplayer hours are spent on these games, and think that other games with multiplayer are facing an uphill battle to attract players in the same way that Call of Duty or FIFA has.
With that said, while I think GTA will definitely have multiplayer, I don't think it has a prayer of approaching the 25 million monthly active uniques Activision claimed in July 2012. GTA has always been primarily a single player experience, and the addition of multiplayer is unlikely to feel as familiar to multiplayer addicts as Call of Duty feels, since the game is likely to pit gang vs. gang instead of army vs. army. So my belief is that the first 15 million in sales are a lock, but that the next 10 million will require attracting people addicted to FIFA and CoD multiplayer; I think that is more of a challenge.
For the record, your post was thoughtful and logical, and I appreciate the dialogue.
