The point - Why The Xbox Is Losing

le.phat

Member
Gamespot's Danny Owdor gives his perspective on Microsoft's strategy, and why he feels they are betting on the wrong horses.

I feel he's right on the money on the way he subcatagorizes gamers, and why Microsoft's gamble cost them the house.

click!
 
a witty way to comment on something.... but for most people MS backtracking was a good thing and we would rather have that then what we had back in June... I also agree about the Hardcore/Softcore
 
Pretty spot on. Hardcore/softcore/casual brackets is the best terminology I've seen anyone come up with for these three distinct markets and he's 100% right that the software market follows in the wake of the hardcore.

Best thing I've seen on Gamespot in a long time.
 
There is no doubt 'where your friends' at is a much more influential factor than exclusive games, especially when the big hitters are available on all platforms and mostly multiplayer focused. 'Hardcore' audience sets the pace and seed the growth of an install base.
 
a witty way to comment on something.... but for most people MS backtracking was a good thing and we would rather have that then what we had back in June... I also agree about the Hardcore/Softcore

What's this 'we' talk? They've killed everything different and interesting about the machine and now have two choices of vanilla to pick from.
 
What's this 'we' talk? They've killed everything different and interesting about the machine and now have two choices of vanilla to pick from.

I fail to see how having the main differentiator between game consoles be the exclusive games is a bad thing.
 
What's this 'we' talk? They've killed everything different and interesting about the machine and now have two choices of vanilla to pick from.

The market dictates what they want not the company. Microsoft must be getting their asses kicked in the preorder department so they have had to concede to what the market demands. The hardcore gamers are the tip of the spear but they are the first ones in. The hardcore wait online at midnight to get their launch systems and when their less hardcore friends pick up a system they buy what their hardcore buddies bought. Microsoft was/is losing the hardcore segment at a rapid clip and they're fucking themselves. These reversals have definitely helped. The last thing needed for them to completely right the ship is a Kinectless SKU at 100$ less.
 
I love this, for lack of a better word, "British" or "European" style of video-prose.

There is something very unique about the combination of the pacing, how close they snip the commentary parts together, and the level of wit employed that makes it seem like a higher form of commentary than say the Jimquisition (which, before anyone jumps on me, I adore and watch regularly).

As for the content, he is spot on. I don't like the idea of the hardcore tooting our own horns about how much we matter to the console wars, but his hypothesis' logic appears sound.
 
The market dictates what they want not the company. Microsoft must be getting their asses kicked in the preorder department so they have had to concede to what the market demands. The hardcore gamers are the tip of the spear but they are the first ones in. The hardcore wait online at midnight to get their launch systems and when their less hardcore friends pick up a system they buy what their hardcore buddies bought. Microsoft was/is losing the hardcore segment at a rapid clip and they're fucking themselves. These reversals have definitely helped. The last thing needed for them to completely right the ship is a Kinectless SKU at 100$ less.

Yup, as I have said many times, MS comes out at the same price as PS4, I cancel my PS4 preorder immediately and switch. MS listening to consumers was a good thing, now just get the price down.
 
Its an OK example if you take last gen into consideration but you go back a bit further, it's not exactly the case. The hardcore are super obnoxious, flip floppy and easy to divide as the PS2/GC/XB gen showed. The PS2 was a very much softcore focused machine and sold on DVD multimedia capability at launch as much as its videogames (And the PS2 launch wasn't exactly videogame paradise. If anything, it was really offputting to the hardcore with how mediocre it was and most hardcore jumped in during 2001 when GTA 3 and MGS 2 launched since most of them had the Dreamcast anyway and could stick it out). Once the XB and GC entered the market though, there was a bit more of a war for mindshare with the hardcore with XB throwing it's lot in on bringing the PC experience to the living room which resonated with some gamers while the GC relied on Nintendo branding to attract in hardcore gamers. It started dividing hardcore gamers into going different roads, flip flopping and leading consumers to different places but that Softcore mass that Sony built up with the PS2 stayed solid throughout the system life because of it's multimedia capability.

There's nothing essentially wrong with targeting the softcore since it succeeded with the PS2. Especially when the hardcore base can split at any time if they see something they like and then flip flop like Mitt Romney in a gymnasium full of banana peels. But they are the loudest and it's hard to ignore them before launch.
 
Very good point and very well made.

4-1 ratio of pre-orders will matter when casuals want to buy a console that thier pals are playing.
 
Because exclusive content is a thing of the past and we now live with 'timed exclusives'.

That's true of third party stuff. But there's still the first party stuff.

And to me that's usually the cream of the crop. With some notable exceptions like Bioshock, Mass Effect, Skyrim etc., third party stuff just doesn't come close to games like Gears, Halo, Uncharted, The Last of Us, Zelda etc.
 
Pre DRM start/reversal if the XB1 was same price as PS4/no needed Kinect? I would have bought XB1 day 1.

Now post all the Bs + backtracking of the BS? XB1 would have to be basically 100$ for me to give a fuck.


TOO LITTLE TOO LATE
 
There is no doubt 'where you friends' at is a much more influential factor than exclusive games, especially when the big hitters are multiplayer focused. 'Hardcore' audience sets the pace and seed the growth of an install base.

You got it....In a vacuum, there is not really a huge amount of us hardcore gamers...not enough to support an entire console generation...

However, the next adopter after the hardcore.....the "softcore gamer" as he so aptly puts it is not just a much larger amount of customers for a platform, they are loyal and they willing to follow the recommendations of the hardcore pretty closely. Moreover, unlike many hardcore gamers, the softcore gamer tends to buy just one console platform per generation.

They make a decision based on the recommendations of the hardcore and what all their other friends are playing. They also tend to be much less bound to a console brand than the hardcore console warrior. He makes a great point PS4 is winning the preorder war right now which means softcore will probably have more friends and hardcore gamers pointing him/her towards PS4.

Bottom line is, YOU HAVE TO WIN THE HARDCORE FIRST TO GET THE BIGGER FISH DOWN THE LINE......This rule has been true since, like, forever and It is so ironic Microsoft is currently struggling with this theory when it was they who were the beneficiaries of the PS2 refugees migration over to 360 because of a great gaming platform and Xbox Live.

Being former PlayStation customers, it is almost unthinkable to me Microsoft would risk losing these softcore Xbox 360 customers (worth Billion$, surely) to the PS4.......Microsoft should be moving heaven and earth to prevent this from happening!!!

These are people who were perfectly happy with the PS2 and some of them probably have an affinity for the PlayStation platform anyway.....Sony has been astute with this and its probably no accident they have been tugging the PS2 nostalga strings since february.......the PS4 even looks like a fucking PS2 slim!!

At any rate....I said it before and I'll say it again, this is BY FAR the most entertaining console war I have ever followed and I have been following it since the Super Fami/PC Engine/Megadrive days!!!
 
If that's the answer why did the PS3 not do as well as previous Soby consoles and why is the WiiU in dire straits?

Wii U is in dire straits because it's too expensive for what it is, the branding is confusing, lack of software, and Nintendo was trying to regain a market that loathes them and will continue to do so.
 
If that's the answer why did the PS3 not do as well as previous Soby consoles and why is the WiiU in dire straits?

PS3 launched way too expensive. Wii U is lacking the major first party franchises. It needs a Zelda, a major Mario game, a Metroid, Mario kart, Pokemon etc. If it had two or three of those already it would be selling better. But it also has the problem of being too expensive for its target market and brand confusing as many think its just a Wii add on.
 
Even though Sony has superior first party devs, cheaper online, more powerful GPU, better RAM, less paywalls, Instant Game Collection and etc. With casuals none of that matters, it all comes down to initial price, both systems are pretty much identical with the next games like COD, Assassins Creed and Watchdogs. Sony wins simply because they have undercut MS for pretty much a similar nextgen system to play your next COD, FIFA on.
 
If that's the answer why did the PS3 not do as well as previous Sony consoles and why is the WiiU in dire straits?

Price and late start are what killed its chances of dominating - what's your point?

Hell, nobody's saying first party games will instantly sell, but it's just that the games are the best factor in crafting a game console's identity. Wii U is dead in the water because its appeal falls into first party alone (it's the differentiator; lacking third party games is even worse than not having any first party games at all), and it hardly got any first party support in its first year to begin with.

I'd like, when deciding what to buy, to think to myself "Well this one has the Last of Us and this one had Halo. What do I want to play?" Not "Well this one has a million arbitrary restrictions and this one doesn't shit on my rights as a consumer."
 
Agree on almost all points. I've always said the reason the 360 took off so fast was it focused on online and by the time some started buying consoles a year later a few of their friends already had 360 groups and games. I think if they launched side by side, even with the $599 price tag of the PS3 it may have been a different story because the Playstation brand was so strong.

They need to keep Kinect (IMO of course) and drop the price to match Sony's. I think it would be a great deal for this. I personally have hopes that Kinect will be a lot better, even if it's not utilized for the games I will mostly play, when the kid and fiance and I play, it was awesome while just 3 people sitting around a TV with a controller in their hand feels less so. I also live in Pacific NW so it rains a lot, indoor activities are a must.

I think a $399 w/ Kinect would do quite well next to a $399 PS4. A lot of gamers are parents now and while I still personally will play most on my PS4 I'd easily scoop up a $399 XB1 w/ Kinect for "everybody".
 
Its an OK example if you take last gen into consideration but you go back a bit further, it's not exactly the case. The hardcore are super obnoxious, flip floppy and easy to divide as the PS2/GC/XB gen showed. The PS2 was a very much softcore focused machine and sold on DVD multimedia capability at launch as much as its videogames (And the PS2 launch wasn't exactly videogame paradise. If anything, it was really offputting to the hardcore with how mediocre it was and most hardcore jumped in during 2001 when GTA 3 and MGS 2 launched since most of them had the Dreamcast anyway and could stick it out). Once the XB and GC entered the market though, there was a bit more of a war for mindshare with the hardcore with XB throwing it's lot in on bringing the PC experience to the living room which resonated with some gamers while the GC relied on Nintendo branding to attract in hardcore gamers. It started dividing hardcore gamers into going different roads, flip flopping and leading consumers to different places but that Softcore mass that Sony built up with the PS2 stayed solid throughout the system life because of it's multimedia capability.

I think you're wearing rose-tinted glasses looking back at that generation.
 
What amazes me most is how the gaming press have failed to notice this problem all along. From the first day of the Xbox One reveal when Microsoft focused on TV and Kinect shit, so much of the gaming press defended it by saying "this event really wasn't for us, the hardcore".

My first reaction was "well who the fuck do you think was tuning into the unveiling of a new Xbox"? Soccer moms tuning into Spike TV, or logging onto Xbox.com that day to get the first look at the hardware?

No, the people who tuned in to the XB1 reveal were the absolute hardcore. So why the hell Microsoft thought it would be brilliant to focus on TV first that day I'll never understand.

As he points out in the video, and this has been kinda known for a long time now because I clearly remember Microsoft themselves stating this when the 360 launched. The hardcore are the leaders of the console war. If you hook them first you get their friends to follow, and this is a very real thing. Many of my own friends ended up buying a 360 after I did, even though they had previously been PS2 fans. Because I had it first, and I liked it, they bought it too.

That is why the first year of these new consoles is so important.
 
PS3 launched way too expensive. Wii U is lacking the major first party franchises. It needs a Zelda, a major Mario game, a Metroid, Mario kart, Pokemon etc. If it had two or three of those already it would be selling better. But it also has the problem of being too expensive for its target market and brand confusing as many think its just a Wii add on.

It should have reclaimed most of that market share though once the price became competitive. I agree the WiiU over stepped its bounds price wise but at least they have committed to the idea of have you interact with games on so differently.


Price and late start are what killed its chances of dominating - what's your point?

Hell, nobody's saying first party games will instantly sell, but it's just that the games are the best factor in crafting a game console's identity. Wii U is dead in the water because its appeal falls into first party alone (it's the differentiator; lacking third party games is even worse than not having any first party games at all), and it hardly got any first party support in its first year to begin with.

I'd like, when deciding what to buy, to think to myself "Well this one has the Last of Us and this one had Halo. What do I want to play?" Not "Well this one has a million arbitrary restrictions and this one doesn't shit on my rights as a consumer."

Things are going digital and I feel MS was putting place things that helped both consumers and publishers/developers.

I don't want the same experiences I know what those are. I want what the future has to offer, and maybe that wasn't what the One was going to be but I'm willing to go on that ride to find out.
 
The Xbox One still has unique selling points such as its own exclusive games coming at launch as well as the future along with other features (such as kinect).

There has been many changes about the Xbox One but I don't get how the changes have completely changed what the gaming console itself will have in terms of features outside of the DRM switch and if anything, the people who are staying with physical media next gen got more features in comparison to what was originally set for them.

The PS3 had a hard time during its first few years but it wasn't solely due to its price. Other factors such as no compelling games played a role too. So far, it looks like the Xbox One won't have that "no compelling games" problem if the E3 awards are anything to go by. There's still many people that will be getting an Xbox One for its exclusives and there's still many people who aren't going to be buying a next gen console in 2013/2014 too. A greater number of people doesn't equal automatic "word of mouth buzz", especially if that greater number of people have nothing interesting to actually talk about. I mean, this summer the PS3 has gotten more buzz than the Xbox 360 in the NA (even though the latter has sold more) mainly due to it having more attention grabbing exclusives this year. I can see things being similar for the next gen consoles -- but early on. It being early on can make the momentum change with still a ton of time left in the gen.

While the current momentum shift in the PS3 is good, it's not going to matter much since this gen is pretty much over. There won't be any long term impact from it. If the Xbox One gets a similar momentum shift (at least in NA) during 2014, then it will definitely have a long term impact since the gen will have many years left obviously.

And as I've said in previous threads, the Xbox One will get a price drop before it has a SKU without kinect. MS putting the kinect in every box gives it a much better position for support and with all of the money MS put into it, they aren't going to want to change the current position that next gen kinect is in. At least not any time soon.

The only thing that I really agreed with is his description of 3 types of gamers.
 
It should have reclaimed most of that market share though once the price became competitive. I agree the WiiU over stepped its bounds price wise but at least they have committed to the idea of have you interact with games on so differently.
But... it did. The PS3 and 360 have been neck and neck for years now. It'll probably surpass it next year thanks to its new exclusives, too.

Hell, even this gen the two biggest factors to consider now between a 360 or PS3 is what your friends have and what games you want to play. What's wrong with that?
 
It's all about early momentum and price.

If the Xbone was announced just like it is now, I think things would be a lot more close. Even with the steeper (?) price tag.

After the complete disaster that was the console announcement and a lot of mixed messages and bad PR, it should take a lot of time to overcome that even with recent changes.

The Xbone will start behind, but it can crawl back into parity with the PS4 as the gen gets going.
 
What amazes me most is how the gaming press have failed to notice this problem all along. From the first day of the Xbox One reveal when Microsoft focused on TV and Kinect shit, so much of the gaming press defended it by saying "this event really wasn't for us, the hardcore".

My first reaction was "well who the fuck do you think was tuning into the unveiling of a new Xbox"? Soccer moms tuning into Spike TV, or logging onto Xbox.com that day to get the first look at the hardware?

No, the people who tuned in to the XB1 reveal were the absolute hardcore. So why the hell Microsoft thought it would be brilliant to focus on TV first that day I'll never understand.

As he points out in the video, and this has been kinda known for a long time now because I clearly remember Microsoft themselves stating this when the 360 launched. The hardcore are the leaders of the console war. If you hook them first you get their friends to follow, and this is a very real thing. Many of my own friends ended up buying a 360 after I did, even though they had previously been PS2 fans. Because I had it first, and I liked it, they bought it too.

That is why the first year of these new consoles is so important.

Exactly the bolded. If they wanted to talk to the audience they were after at that point, should have been on one of those morning talk shows or at something like CES. The rest of the world is not going to take the time out of their day to tune in to an internet event about the successor to a video game box.
 
Nailed it. Anyone who doesn't believe they are cutting Kinect out of the package if sales are disappointing is kidding themselves.

They need to get to that 399 price-point as fast as humanly possible, and that dumb camera will be an anchor around their necks.
 
I fail to see how having the main differentiator between game consoles be the exclusive games is a bad thing.

You simply may not be in a good position to appreciate it. For someone who has plenty of disposable income and can easily afford to buy every console and each of its prized exclusives, I'd love to see a more substantial type of differentiation.

I'll give you an example. People seem to be really excited about Oculus Rift -- not because of it's exclusive games, but because it provides an entirely new experience. Many of them still want "conventional" games to complement the VR experience, but they welcome the variety.

For me, it's the same way with consoles. I'm not saying I necessarily wanted Microsoft's "innovations," but for me exclusives aren't a very meaningful differentiator. Unfortunately (for me), I'm probably in the minority.
 
What are you doing!? You....you can't do that. And I thought we were friends...

lol

Like somebody else in the thread said, it's a choice between two different flavors of vanilla now, for better or worse. The people I game with on a regular basis are on Xbox One, so I'm going with that.

Besides, all of the PS4's compelling software wont be out until 2014, I'm fine to play all of my multiplayer/third party titles on Xbox One. PS4 will be my SP box, XO for everything else.
 
The market dictates what they want not the company. Microsoft must be getting their asses kicked in the preorder department so they have had to concede to what the market demands. The hardcore gamers are the tip of the spear but they are the first ones in. The hardcore wait online at midnight to get their launch systems and when their less hardcore friends pick up a system they buy what their hardcore buddies bought. Microsoft was/is losing the hardcore segment at a rapid clip and they're fucking themselves. These reversals have definitely helped. The last thing needed for them to completely right the ship is a Kinectless SKU at 100$ less.

No. Just no.
 
MS isn't going to "lose" this gen, they have too much money to cover up their mistakes.
They definitely aren't going to "win" though. Sony has this gen in the fucking bag.
 
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