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[MorisUkunRasik]

Udonis Haslem back in practice.

LEAGUE ON NOTICE

Selling my Kleenex stock as I speak!

 

[KingGondo]

Thought this article was pretty interesting/revealing:

I had sorted on defensive efficiency (points allowed per 100 possessions) on this page, and wasn't surprised to see the usual suspects leading the league...

Defensive Efficiency (thru Sunday's games)
1...Chicago 97.4
2...Boston 97.5
3...Orlando 99.0
4...Miami 99.6
5...Milwaukee 100.1
6...San Antonio 100.8
7...New Orleans 100.9
8...LA Lakers 102.2
9...Memphis 102.4
10...Philadelphia 102.5

That list gives you the top contenders in the East (the first four), the two Western dynasty teams (no introduction needed), and the two recent super-surgers in each conference (Memphis and Philadelphia).

Then, it struck me that it basically presented them in that order. East, then West.

San Antonio has the #1 defensive efficiency in the West this year? I would have been 100% certain that wasn't the case before looking. Their defense supposedly took a big step backward this season. They've allegedly sacrificed defense more scoring. Their new guys aren't ideally suited to Coach Gregg Popovich's defensive schematics. We've all heard the reasons. San Antonio is supposed to be dominating this year in spite of its defense rather than because of it.

But, there it is in numbers and ellipses. San Antonio has the best defense in the West!

I thought it interesting that the Eastern powers clustered like that. It's been fairly obvious over the past several weeks that there are several really bad teams in the East. Cleveland was a joke for quite a long time. Toronto has been Cleveland the past month. Washington often plays down at that same level. New Jersey has struggled badly. Detroit either did or didn't have a mutiny. That's A LOT of bad teams!

I looked up the strength of schedule numbers from Jeff Sagarin over at USA Today.

There are 30 teams in the league. Check out these schedule difficulty ranks through Sunday's action...

30...Miami
29...Orlando
28...Boston
27...Atlanta
26...Chicago

There are your top five seeds in the East this year barring a miracle or two. And, there are your top four teams in defensive efficiency in slightly altered order. Chicago looks to have truly earned "best in the East" defensively because they had the most difficult schedule of the group through Sunday (though it might change by the time you link to that page since they played Washington Monday night).

Maybe the Spurs and Lakers are even better than their overall rankings suggest. The Eastern teams get a lot of games against horrible offenses. Let's keep moving down the strength of schedule listing...

25...LA Lakers
24...San Antonio

So much for that theory. The Lakers and Spurs haven't had it as easy as the Eastern powers. But, they've had it more easy than the other Western contenders. I won't run through everyone. Next on the list are four more teams from the East. Phoenix has played the third easiest schedule in the West, Dallas fourth.

It doesn't look like any conclusions you'd draw from the defensive efficiency ratings would be too warped. But, it's worth remembering that many of the Eastern powers have a chance to inflate their stats a bit vs. soft schedules. I've read a lot of web stories and forum commentary on the Heat. I don't think I recall anyone pointing out they've played the easiest schedule in the league so far.

And, if you're a fan of the West, the Spurs and Lakers have had it easier than everyone else to this point in a way that might matter down the road.

Let's look for combinations of defense and schedule strength...

Best defenses vs. schedules ranking in the top half of difficulty:
Milwaukee 100.1 vs. 8th rated schedule
New Orleans 100.9 vs. 12th rated schedule
Memphis 102.4 vs. 13th rated schedule
Oklahoma City 104.9 vs. 4th rated schedule

OKC is about to get better too if Kendrick Perkins can get healthy.

Milwaukee is off the radar this year, but "Fear the Deer" still works if you're an opposing offense. Then we have three Western teams who will make the playoff brackets more defense-orientated than it might have seemed at first.

At the very least, as you ponder various issues from this point forward, remember that the Eastern powers are enjoying easier schedules than everyone else is playing.

I had no idea we've had the 4th most difficult schedule in the league thus far, maybe our defense isn't as atrocious as I thought it was?

http://hoopdata.com/blogengine/post/2011/03/01/Schedules-Influencing-Stat-Rankings.aspx

tl;dr: The East is extremely weak except for the top 5 teams, which inflates the best teams' defensive stats; the Lakers and Spurs have had the easiest schedules in the West.

 

[thekad]

I don't have a car

What is there to drive to?

 

[SephCast]

Udonis Haslem back in practice.

LEAGUE ON NOTICE

The real question, will Haslem take Bosh's clutch 3 taking job?

 

[Jeff-DSA]

What is there to drive to?

It's safe to be outside of cars and buildings in the Salt Lake City area.

 

[charsace]

Portland must regret not going after Conley. I loved his game coming out of college and always believed he was the leader of Ohio state when he was there and now his game is finally translating to the NBA. They are letting him control the offense in memphis and now good things are happening.

Could have been a blazer. To bad the blazers overrated their talent.

 

[reilo]

Thought this article was pretty interesting/revealing:

I had no idea we've had the 4th most difficult schedule in the league thus far, maybe our defense isn't as atrocious as I thought it was?

http://hoopdata.com/blogengine/post/2011/03/01/Schedules-Influencing-Stat-Rankings.aspx

tl;dr: The East is extremely weak except for the top 5 teams, which inflates the best teams' defensive stats; the Lakers and Spurs have had the easiest schedules in the West.

Hollinger's SOS is quite different:

http://espn.go.com/nba/hollinger/powerrankings/_/sort/sos

Portland must regret not going after Conley. I loved his game coming out of college and always believed he was the leader of Ohio state when he was there and now his game is finally translating to the NBA. They are letting him control the offense in memphis and now good things are happening.

Could have been a blazer. To bad the blazers overrated their talent.

What idiotic bullshit are you on now? Have we not had this discussion already where I proved you to be a complete fool in regards to this subject?

 

[Black Mamba]

Thought this article was pretty interesting/revealing:

I had no idea we've had the 4th most difficult schedule in the league thus far, maybe our defense isn't as atrocious as I thought it was?

http://hoopdata.com/blogengine/post/2011/03/01/Schedules-Influencing-Stat-Rankings.aspx

tl;dr: The East is extremely weak except for the top 5 teams, which inflates the best teams' defensive stats; the Lakers and Spurs have had the easiest schedules in the West.

Ranking order is stupid. The Lakers, Spurs, and Mavs will end up with the easiest Western schedules out west at season's end, too.

For obvious reasons.

Also, according to Hollinger's rankings, Philly has had the 2nd easiest, now.

But all but about 6 teams are between .49 and .51 SoS. Not much of a difference.

At this point, # of home/away games and b2b left are more indicative than pure SoS.

 

[Herpes Reasons]

Hollinger's SOS is quite different:

http://espn.go.com/nba/hollinger/powerrankings/_/sort/sos

What idiotic bullshit are you on now? Have we not had this discussion already where I proved you to be a complete fool in regards to this subject?

only that subject?

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

Jazz bring Marcus Cousins up from the D-League apparently, be scared Raptors.

 

[reilo]

only that subject?

He claimed a month ago that Portland overvalued their players and that they were too afraid to trade away their players. He claimed that they didn't want to include LaMarcus in an Amare deal. To prove his point, he linked to a rumor that stated Portland offered LaMarcus for Amare.

 

[charsace]

Hollinger's SOS is quite different:

http://espn.go.com/nba/hollinger/powerrankings/_/sort/sos

What idiotic bullshit are you on now? Have we not had this discussion already where I proved you to be a complete fool in regards to this subject?

There were rumors of memphis wanting Outlaw and Fernandez, but the blazers at the time thought it was too much talent.

Spoiler

(lololololololololololololololololololol)

 

[SephCast]

Jazz bring Marcus Cousins up from the D-League apparently, be scared Raptors.

Is he DeMarcus' Cousin?

 

[ph33nix]

I'm listening to a replay of Wilbon yesterday on 790.

This guy is getting out of control.

 

[KingGondo]

Hollinger's SOS is quite different:

http://espn.go.com/nba/hollinger/powerrankings/_/sort/sos

I usually hate Hollinger, but I choose to agree with him now.

But all but about 6 teams are between .49 and .51 SoS. Not much of a difference.

At this point, # of home/away games and b2b left are more indicative than pure SoS.

True, it just seems to me that the top teams in the East have had much more of a chance to "fatten up" on weak competition than the teams in the West. Chicago's intra-division competition is terrible in particular.

The only truly terrible teams in the West are Minnesota & Sacramento, while the East has Cleveland, Toronto, Washington, Detroit, New Jersey, Milwaukee, and Charlotte (and the Pacers are only 1 1/2 games ahead of the Bobkittens).

 

[reilo]

There were rumors of memphis wanting Outlaw and Fernandez, but the blazers at the time thought it was too much talent.

Spoiler

(lololololololololololololololololololol)

Is this like the time you said that Portland didn't want to give up LaMarcus for Amare, and then linked to an article that said Portland offered LaMarcus for Amare and the Suns turned it down?

Good going there, chump. Maybe you should quit sniffing your own asshole.

 

[charsace]

Is this like the time you said that Portland didn't want to give up LaMarcus for Amare, and then linked to an article that said Portland offered LaMarcus for Amare and the Suns turned it down?

Good going there, chump. Maybe you should quit sniffing your own asshole.

The suns wanted more and Portalnd weren't willing to give up any guys. What's the point of stockpiling prospects if you aren't going to trade them for top players or better prospects? Portland seems to be ok with being alright and having a ton of guys that sit around and complain for more playing time.

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

Marcus Cousins scouting report:


http://www.ridiculousupside.com/2011/3/8/2038122/utah-jazz-marcus-cousin-d-league-austin-toros


That's right, the Spurs tried to sign him but didn't have roster space. Future hall of famer confirmed.

 

[reilo]

The suns wanted more and Portalnd weren't willing to give up any guys. What's the point of stockpiling prospects if you aren't going to trade them for top players or better prospects? Portland seems to be ok with being alright and having a ton of guys that sit around and complain for more playing time.

Guys that Portland has traded/let go in the past three seasons:

Sergio, Blake, Outlaw, Joel, Dante, Jarrett Jack, Bayless, Webster, LaFrentz, Frye, various first round picks.

Guys that Portland has gotten in return in the past three seasons for a combination of all of those above:

Miller, Wallace, Camby, Matthews

So, please, enlighten me, guy, who should have Portland gotten instead?

 

[Rodeo Clown]

Martell Webster fucking sucks and I hate David Kahn.

 

[Jeff-DSA]

Look reilo, you guys could have Dwight Howard, Deron Williams, Ray Allen, and Lebron if you would have just let Fernandez and Batum go.

 

[reilo]

Martell Webster fucking sucks and I hate David Kahn.

As far as I'm concerned, Portland has turned dirt into gold with some of those moves the past three years.

 

[Gigglepoo]

I'm listening to a replay of Wilbon yesterday on 790.

This guy is getting out of control.

Link? I can't trust Wilbon because he's way too close to players and coaches, but he's still entertaining.

 

[KingGondo]

Is he DeMarcus' Cousin?

I lol'd slightly at this.

 

[reilo]

True story: charsace said Portland was stupid for trading future all-star Jerryd Bayless for a first round pick.

That first round pick helped Portland land Gerald. But of course, that's somehow Portland overvaluing their talent.

 

[Black Mamba]

The only truly terrible teams in the West are Minnesota & Sacramento, while the East has Cleveland, Toronto, Washington, Detroit, New Jersey, Milwaukee, and Charlotte (and the Pacers are only 1 1/2 games ahead of the Bobkittens).

No doubt. East is a weaker conference.

Since we'll all agree the top 4 in each conference are close to the same tier, then the difference in conferences for those teams amounts to somewhere between 6-12 games switching from good to bad competition, I'd imagine.

The ranking of the top teams doesn't matter, only the actual SoS number would. The Spurs or Celtics should end up with the easiest SoS because they don't play themselves (Those 6-12 games might drop SAS below Boston, chicago, Miami)

sidenote: After this trip, LAL will have played 30 home and 37 road games and probably close to .500 SoS. 4 game trip will swing them from top 5 easiest to one of the hardest overall. Just goes to show you how close they all are.

 

[Rodeo Clown]

I went and checked some David Kahn quotes from June.

"He's an amazing athlete, with a proficiency to make three-pointers, so from a spacing standpoint on offense, the two kids will help us immediately. Martell is a solid defender, he's had to guard some of the best players in the league already and Martell has done his part to hold his own, and so our defense also improved with those two players," Kahn said.

"I'm very happy with Martell, he has started in this league for part of several seasons, the statistics are that when he plays a significant amount of time 30 plus minutes, his shot making goes up, his scoring goes up, he probably relaxes a little bit when he's playing steady minutes," Kahn added.

I won't even get into the logic of "Check his stats when he plays a lot of minutes." This dude barely plays because he's hurt all the damn time. What a horrible trade that was.

 

[charsace]

True story: charsace said Portland was stupid for trading future all-star Jerryd Bayless for a first round pick.

That first round pick helped Portland land Gerald. But of course, that's somehow Portland overvaluing their talent.

Crash is probably one concussion away from retirement.

You guys stunted Bayless' development by not playing him and developing him into a dumb direction.

 

[Black Mamba]

Finally, someone is shutting up the advanced people on Miami Heat's record in close games, claimed to be a "fluke."

Although APBRmetrics teaches us that all teams' records in close games regress toward .500, at a certain point it becomes statistically unlikely that the Heat's "true" probability of winning those types of games is as good as a coin flip.

Using the binomial distribution, the probability of a true .500 team going 5-13 or worse in a given set of 18 games is just 4.8%. In other words, if our initial hypothesis was that Miami is still a true .500 team who simply suffered a spate of colossally bad luck in close games, we now have enough evidence to reject that hypothesis. The alternate hypothesis -- that the Heat are something less than a true .500 team in close games -- seems far more likely.

How much less, though? Well, using the Empirical Rule, there's a 68% chance that Miami's true "close game skill" falls between a 3-15 record and a 7-11 one, and a 95% chance it falls between 1-17 and 9-9.

Of course, you may want to use Bayes' Theorem to inform Miami's expected skill level with additional information (in which case their .844 record in non-close games would come into play). But if you only look at the evidence from close games this season, it is statistically improbable that the Heat's true ability to come out on top is even .500 when the score is tight.

 

[jordan0386]

My brain hurts.

 

[KingGondo]

No doubt. East is a weaker conference.

It will all even out for the most part, but if you get lucky you can really benefit from a weak division. OKC has already played the Spurs 3 times, the Mavs 3 times, plus the Bulls, Czzz, and Magic twice each, which probably accounts for the disparity. Thankfully our schedule really eases up for the next month, we'll probably finish with 52-54 wins.

And before I forget, hey reilo:

James Harden since OKC traded Jeff Green: 18.2 ppg, 51 percent from the field and most importantly, 31.5 minutes per game.

 

[giri]

The suns wanted more and Portalnd weren't willing to give up any guys. What's the point of stockpiling prospects if you aren't going to trade them for top players or better prospects? Portland seems to be ok with being alright and having a ton of guys that sit around and complain for more playing time.

Conleys still a bum and over paid.

 

[numble]

Get out of here Daryl Morey.

 

[Black Mamba]

My brain hurts.

Put it this way. There's some evidence that says close games (within 5 points IIRC) are coin flips or 50/50. I have issues with the methodology, but it's pretty well accepted (and for most cases, I agree).

But for a team to go 5-13 in such games is highly unlikely if it really was a coin flip. If you flipped a coin 20 times, it would come up heads 5 or less times just 4% of the time. So this could be one of those times but it's not likely.

 

[The Frankman]

There's a great article on basketball metrics and their hidden flaws/search for a decent one that I want to post but I'll wait for Sharp to come around. As one of the few guys who posts here from MLB-GAF (where sabermetrics have much more weight) I want him to weigh in on it...

 

[reilo]

You guys stunted Bayless' development by not playing him and developing him into a dumb direction.

MPG

POR: 17.9
NOH: 13.5
TOR: 20.3

STATS

POR: 8.5PPG, 2.3APG, 41FG%
NOH: 4.5PPG, 2.5APG, 35FG%
TOR: 8.5PPG, 3.7APG, 41FG%

Oh yeah. Totally stunted. All of Portland's fault. Totally.

 

[giri]

Is it just me, or do the Blazers play more back-to-backs than any other team? Who thought it would be a good idea to make them play @Orlando and @Miami on consecutive nights? That's brutal.

Several teams have copped that (suns included).

 

[Black Mamba]

It will all even out for the most part, but if you get lucky you can really benefit from a weak division. OKC has already played the Spurs 3 times, the Mavs 3 times, plus the Bulls, Czzz, and Magic twice each, which probably accounts for the disparity. Thankfully our schedule really eases up for the next month, we'll probably finish with 52-54 wins.

There's only a difference of 4 games among a conference (30 games opp conference, 16 in division, 6 teams in conference x4 games + 4 teams in conf x 3).

Dallas and LA play each other 3. So do OKC and LAL. and OKC and SAS. and on and on.

I doubt any team got lucky where they play 3 vs the top 4 teams (not including themselves) and played 4 against the bottom 4.

For the most part, I'd say every team has the same schedule (minus themselves) within a conference.

 

[diehard]

Bayless was a scrub. Portland overvalues Batum though.

 

[reilo]

And before I forget, hey reilo:

Harden played well for 5 games? The black Andrea Bargnani, confirmed.

 

[Black Mamba]

There's a great article on basketball metrics and their hidden flaws/search for a decent one that I want to post but I'll wait for Sharp to come around. as one of the few guys who posts here from MLB-GAF (where sabermetrics have much more weight) I want him to read this. It's a real good read.

Is the article by Phil Birnbaum. Thanks to my background in stats, I'm a basketball advanced metrics junkie.

 

[charsace]

Conleys still a bum and over paid.

Not from what I've seen. It took years, but they are letting him run the team now. Going to the olympics is the best thing that happened to Gay. He's realized that he should focus on what he's best at and let the other guys do what they do. Conley's value has always been his ability to run a team and distribute the rock. He's getting to do those things this season.

In past season they had him camping the 3pt line. He's one of the best ball handlers and also one of the fastest with the ball in his hands in the world and they had him camping the 3pt line? If memphis would have used him like this from the start instead of having guys like Lowery there standing against him the team would have been better off.

 

[The Frankman]

Is the article by Phil Birnbaum. Thanks to my background in stats, I'm a basketball advanced metrics junkie.

Nope, though it does fingerpoint to his article.

 

[DCX]

Finally, someone is shutting up the advanced people on Miami Heat's record in close games, claimed to be a "fluke."

...smh. Listen, i'm not a fan of the use of best worst team or worst best team in the league. I deal with numbers. Fact.
Right now it's fact that they are shitty in close game situations.
Right now it's fact that the Knicks are a .500 ish team.
Right now it's fact we are 2-2 against said Heat.

What does this mean in reality? We are playing up to our par. We beat good teams, even out with loses against Cleveland and we are who we say we are.

Miami? 40+ wins, two of the top 15 closers in the game. Three all-stars two all NBA players. We already won crusade and they are one of the worst closing teams in the NBA. In the same league as Cleveland, NJ and Minnesota. Something about that is alarming to me and due for concern coming to playoff time where everything is magnified and where close games are the rule.

It isn't a fluke that Miami is shitty in close games. We all knew this would be an issue. One ball, two alpha dogs. Deal with it.


DCX

 

[Black Mamba]

Chris Broussard
Nuggets and George Karl just agreed to contract extension of at least 3 years, sources say.

.

 

[Jeff-DSA]

Now that the cancer is gone, George Karl is ready to extend, I see.

 

[Black Mamba]

...smh. Listen, i'm not a fan of the use of best worst team or worst best team in the league. I deal with numbers. Fact.
Right now it's fact that they are shitty in close game situations.
Right now it's fact that the Knicks are a .500 ish team.
Right now it's fact we are 2-2 against said Heat.

What does this mean in reality? We are playing up to our par. We beat good teams, even out with loses against Cleveland and we are who we say we are.

Miami? 40+ wins, two of the top 15 closers in the game. Three all-stars two all NBA players. We already won crusade and they are one of the worst closing teams in the NBA. In the same league as Cleveland, NJ and Minnesota. Something about that is alarming to me and due for concern coming to playoff time where everything is magnified and where close games are the rule.

It isn't a fluke that Miami is shitty in close games. We all knew this would be an issue. One ball, two alpha dogs. Deal with it.


DCX

I...I don't understand why you smh at me. What I posted is agreeing with you.

 

[diehard]

Now that the cancer is gone, George Karl is ready to extend, I see.

Melo's smile emits deadly radiation. True story.

 

[marathonfool]

I went and checked some David Kahn quotes from June.

I won't even get into the logic of "Check his stats when he plays a lot of minutes." This dude barely plays because he's hurt all the damn time. What a horrible trade that was.

I would take Webster back in a heart beat for Babbitt. Babbitt is like a younger, shorter, weaker, and bad shooting Troy Murphy. I have no idea what the Blazers saw in him.

 

[giri]

Not from what I've seen. It took years, but they are letting him run the team now. Going to the olympics is the best thing that happened to Gay. He's realized that he should focus on what he's best at and let the other guys do what they do. Conley's value has always been his ability to run a team and distribute the rock. He's getting to do those things this season.

In past season they had him camping the 3pt line. He's one of the best ball handlers and also one of the fastest with the ball in his hands in the world and they had him camping the 3pt line? If memphis would have used him like this from the start instead of having guys like Lowery there standing against him the team would have been better off.

Meh, i see a lot of his stats as empty stats for the most part. I rarely see him create in the offense, and most of his points come in transition. The scoring in transition thing isn't bad, but a lot of the O really doesn't come from him, it still comes from Gay/z-bo.

But i stopped watching grizz games earlier this year, so maybe he's changed.