Support NeoGAF

[Syphon Filter]

Lets Go Heat! Lets Go Heat!

Good job Indy.

shame on them,they are suppose to be indy fans.

 

[Tragicomedy]

You have "the mean" confused. Miami doesn't average 19 more points than Indiana does. If both teams regress to the mean in the second half, Miami wins by 5-7. If Miami regresses and Indiana plays well (what I thought would happen) Indiana wins. If Miami regresses and Indiana completely craps the bed, Indiana gets blown out.

For your hypothetical situation to occur, you must believe the mean has the Pacers outscoring the Heat by 7 points in an average half, since they were down 14. That hasn't happened on average this season and certainly not this series. You are no math magician.

And your second point is laughably obvious. "Hey, guys, if Miami plays poorly and Indiana plays well, guess who will win?" No shit, Sherlock. Too bad your prediction ended up being as busted as Kobe Achilles.

 

[Pimpwerx]

 

[RockTurtle]

I missed the game today. i couldnt bear to watch from nervousness. someone give me the lowdown.

 

[Spinluck]

edit: beaten

Perfect.

 

[Vahagn]

Are you stupid? Miami won the second half by 4. That's 8 if extended for the whole game.

They both regressed to the mean in the 2nd half. The problem for Indiana is Indiana couldn't afford a regression. At all. Do you understand? Indy not regressing and miami regressing was probably not enough for Indy to win even, let alone both.

Indy had to be better in the 2nd half than the first to win. That wasn't happened. Miami playing below their mean was enough to win.

Wow ok. Half this damn thread is defining regressing to the mean differently and all acting like they know what they're talking about.

 

[Pimpwerx]

I missed the game today. i couldnt bear to watch from nervousness. someone give me the lowdown.

Udonis Haslem rubbed his sweaty dick all over Indiana's face. PEACE.

 

[PBY]

Wow ok. Half this damn thread is defining regressing to the mean differently and all acting like they know what they're talking about.

Stahp plz

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

I missed the game today. i couldnt bear to watch from nervousness. someone give me the lowdown.

Father Time forgot to slow down Wade and Haslem

Paul George remembered that he's not good at scoring.

 

[Tragicomedy]

Wow ok. Half this damn thread is defining regressing to the mean differently and all acting like they know what they're talking about.

You certainly don't.

 

[Black Mamba]

Wow ok. Half this damn thread is defining regressing to the mean differently and all acting like they know what they're talking about.

Do you know what it means?

It means you start approaching your mean in the long run. If your average game is 100 and you score 60 in the first half, regressing to the mean does not mean scoring 40, it means scoring closer to 50 in the 2nd half.

If Miami regressed perfectly to their mean in the 2nd half, they'd have scored 122 or so for the game.

 

[Cloudy]

.

 

[Psychological Intellect]

Wow ok. Half this damn thread is defining regressing to the mean differently and all acting like they know what they're talking about.

oh vag

With the talent on this team, they can get a PG via the draft. All they need is a guy who can actually dribble and hit 3s. If Granger can play, why not keep him? George is a 2 not a 3

george is 6'10'' with limited handles.

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

George is a 2 not a 3

First ever 6'10 SG.

 

[Cloudy]

They need to trade granger for a big pg upgrade or like 2 quality bench players. It's their only hope.

With the talent on this team, they can get a PG via the draft. All they need is a guy who can actually dribble and hit 3s. If Granger can play, why not keep him? Not like you have to pay George big money anytime soon and he's a 2 not a 3.

Just seems dumb to trade away a physical allstar SF with LeBron in your conference

 

[Pimpwerx]

First ever 6'10 SG.

Second? Durant clearly could be one too. He's certainly better at the SCORING part than PG is. PEACE.

 

[Cloudy]

george is 6'10'' with limited handles.

He is so slight though. I feel a healthy Granger gives them a good chance vs. Miami

 

[I am Michael Bolton]

Happy that the Pacers lost. They're type of ball doesn't deserve to become successful.

 

[Pimpwerx]

@CoupNBA
Hibbert just said he couldn't offer help on LeBron in post because Andersen/Haslem were so deep in weakside corner. So, Heat plan worked.

Wait...Birdman Anderson? Does not compute. Am I the only one here? PEACE.

 

[fertygo]

Happy that the Pacers lost. They're type of ball doesn't deserve to become successful.

And team from collusion is?

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

He is so slight though. I feel a healthy Granger gives them a good chance vs. Miami

Did you black out through the entire Knicks series? Melo isn't thin.

 

[Ninja Scooter]

I just watched Matt Damon Miami Heat Michael Douglas from behind.

 

[Cipherr]

I ain't even happy. That was some shameful shit to close game two, I'm still salty about that loss mane.

 

[Vahagn]

Do you know what it means?

It means you start approaching your mean in the long run. If your average game is 100 and you score 60 in the first half, regressing to the mean does not mean scoring 40, it means scoring closer to 50 in the 2nd half.

If Miami regressed perfectly to their mean in the 2nd half, they'd have scored 122 or so for the game.

Thank you. So tell homeboy who thinks a team that shot 50% in one half and then shoots 30% in the second half is regression to the mean is wrong. It's not. It's crapping the bed.

If Indiana shot 43% in the second half instead of like 30% they would have regressed to the mean. But they crapped the bed. I thought they'd play well because they'd shoot around 42-43% and get some more opportunities due to Miami regression-to-the-mean TO's. Instead Miami didn't commit their average half of TO's and Indiana shot horribly, they didn't just regress to the mean. That's why they got blown the fuck out despite Miami regressing pretty hard themselves.


Edit: I never said Miami would score 30 or 35 in the second half. I thought 40-45 would be the case. I just thought Indiana wouls carve into the lead with average shooting and 6 or 7 Miami TO's

 

[Cloudy]

Did you black out through the entire Knicks series? Melo isn't thin.

I don't think he bothered Melo that much though. Knicks lost cos no one else could score

 

[I am Michael Bolton]

And team from collusion is?

Team from collusion? What do you mean?

 

[Psychological Intellect]

lionel hollins: i ain't even mad

 

[Pimpwerx]

Team from collusion? What do you mean?

He doesn't know what the word collusion means. If he does, he's not even pretending to apply it properly. PEACE.

 

[fertygo]

George is ideal SF for todays NBA, the hell you smoking.. konex
Most wing that have "perfect size" have build like him.

Team from collusion? What do you mean?

Nvm, just forget it.

He doesn't know what the word collusion means. If he does, he's not even pretending to apply it properly. PEACE.

You're right Mr. better poster.

 

[Pimpwerx]

George is ideal SF for todays NBA, the hell you smoking.. konex
Most wing that have "perfect size" have build like him.

I'm assuming the "perfect size" and "ideal SF" is one Lebron James. I think I'd take the Bron prototype over the defective George model any day.

You're right Mr. better poster.

Not trying to be snarky, but that word collusion has been misapplied to the Heat from day1. Say what you will about how the team was formed, but collusion is simply the wrong term. The only reason people like Cuban ever used it was intentionally to portray the signings as sinister. It's FREE agency. There's absolutely nothing sinister about it. Hence, collusion is a stupid term to use. PEACE.

 

[DY_nasty]

I admit it. Vahagn is my alt.

May I be absolved of all my sins so that my team can draft Wiggins next year.

So say we all.

 

[perfectchaos007]

Thread title living up to its name

 

[Vahagn]

Mamba that's why I said "I don't know If you're joking"

Indianas performance in the second half wasn't their average half. It was an abysmal shooting half. They shot 30% and didnt come close to hitting their home game point production for a half.

 

[Psychological Intellect]

Mamba that's why I said "I don't know If you're joking"

Indianas performance in the second half wasn't their average half. It was an abysmal shooting half. They shot 30% and didnt come close to hitting their home game point production for a half.

but they regressed to the mean


and we need to talk about how bosh is killing the 3 ball in the playoffs.

 

[I am Michael Bolton]

He doesn't know what the word collusion means. If he does, he's not even pretending to apply it properly. PEACE.

Ok. I thought I was the only one...

 

[Vahagn]

but they regressed to the mean


and we need to talk about how bosh is killing the 3 ball in the playoffs.

Indiana at @ home averages 44% shooting and 97 points a game. They shot 30% and scored 40 points. That's not the mean for a half dude.

Had Indiana shot 43% and scored 49-51 points that would be regression to the mean. FFS

 

[I am Michael Bolton]

but they regressed to the mean


and we need to talk about how bosh is killing the 3 ball in the playoffs.

Bosh is really impressive. Proud of how he's really turned the tide from two years ago.

 

[Psychological Intellect]

Indiana at @ home averages 44% shooting and 97 points a game. They shot 30% and scored 40 points. That's not the mean for a half dude.

Had Indiana shot 43% and scored 49-51 points that would be regression to the mean. FFS

nah indiana regressed to about their average.

but what i mean to say is

Spoiler

kobe

 

[I am Michael Bolton]

nah indiana regressed to about their average.

but what i mean to say is

Spoiler

kobe

 

[Black Mamba]

Thank you. So tell homeboy who thinks a team that shot 50% in one half and then shoots 30% in the second half is regression to the mean is wrong. It's not. It's crapping the bed.

If Indiana shot 43% in the second half instead of like 30% they would have regressed to the mean. But they crapped the bed. I thought they'd play well because they'd shoot around 42-43% and get some more opportunities due to Miami regression-to-the-mean TO's. Instead Miami didn't commit their average half of TO's and Indiana shot horribly, they didn't just regress to the mean. That's why they got blown the fuck out despite Miami regressing pretty hard themselves.


Edit: I never said Miami would score 30 or 35 in the second half. I thought 40-45 would be the case. I just thought Indiana wouls carve into the lead with average shooting and 6 or 7 Miami TO's

Fg% is irrelevant. Indiana scored 40 points in the 2nd half. It would have been more if they didnt wave the white flag. Lets say 44. That's exactly where I'd say their mean is this matchup.

And I never said you said that. I said Miami needs to score 35 to guarantee victory and I dared you to bet me they'd score under that. You didn't.

And again Miami only won the second half by 4 and most of the time it was around the halftime lead.

 

[Syphon Filter]

nah indiana regressed to about their average.

but what i mean to say is

Spoiler

kobe

trolol

 

[I am Michael Bolton]

trolol

I'm surprised you're in such good spirits being a Pacers fan and all. Or did you expect them to lose?

 

[Black Mamba]

Indiana at @ home averages 44% shooting and 97 points a game. They shot 30% and scored 40 points. That's not the mean for a half dude.

Had Indiana shot 43% and scored 49-51 points that would be regression to the mean. FFS

Indiana doesn't play Miami on average. Saying Indiana scored 97 on average is stupid when they're not playing an average team.

 

[Syphon Filter]

I'm surprised you're in such good spirits being a Pacers fan and all. Or did you expect them to lose?

; )

 

[Vahagn]

Indiana doesn't play Miami on average. Saying Indiana scored 97 on average is stupid when they're not playing an average team.

Uh, they're averaging over 97 a game this series. It's not stupid because it's consistent with their other averages. 102 (OT), 97 and 96.

You're acting like they're averaging 85-88.

Not to mention it makes sense they'd score more at home on average anyway as teams tend to do that.

Edit: and FG% is irrelevant lol. Ok whatever. When you're discussing regression to the mean in basketball offense, shooting % is definitely part of the issue.

 

[Psychological Intellect]

lol craig

 

[I am Michael Bolton]

; )

I know that feeling. Being a fan of the Trailblazers isn't easy.

 

[Pimpwerx]

Uh, they're averaging over 97 a game this series. It's not stupid because it's consistent with their other averages. 102 (OT), 97 and 96.

You're acting like they're averaging 85-88.

Postseason? I believe they're averaging 90.6 ppg. Regression to the...nah. PEACE.

 

[Psychological Intellect]

I know that feeling. Being a fan of the Trailblazers isn't easy.

future looks pretty good if you draft well and get some good role players + decent bench.

you want to keep LaMarcus Aldridge?

 

[I am Michael Bolton]

future looks pretty good if you draft well and get some good role players + decent bench.

you want to keep LaMarcus Aldridge?

It's going to be a difficult decision. Dude is a great player but personally I don't see the team being able to go anywhere with him. May be better to see if we can trade him for some nice draft picks or expiring contracts and then try to go after some FA's. Would definitely hate to give him up though. Though we only have him for two more seasons so it may be best to just ride it out.