The past few pages of this thread are depressing. Instead of a discussion of Game 3 and whether the Heat can turn it around, we've got a bunch of insecure haters salivating at the chance to jump on LeBron.
Let's see if we can shed some light on this asinine discussion. It's true that the West is much deeper and tougher than the East and the Heat had a relatively easy road to the Finals this year. While the Spurs were pushed to the limit by an 8 seed that would have home court advantage in the East, the Heat barely broke a sweat in the first round by a bottom-feeder that only made the playoffs because they got out-tanked by other tankers. That pattern mostly continued until The Finals.
Still, just because the East is weak, it doesn't necessarily follow that the Heat wouldn't make it out of the West. The Heat had the 5th best record, but it's clear that they were saving themselves for the playoffs. They dropped 5 of their last 6 games after their seed was secured and rested Wade for 1/3 of the season. During the regular season and on paper, they match up well with the best of the West, sporting a 20-10 record. It's all hypothetical, but on paper, the Spurs are the only West team that you might favor against the Heat in a 7 game series due to their depth, athleticism, and ball movement. The Clippers, Rockets, and Mavericks don't play defense well enough to hang with the Heat. The Grizzlies and Warriors don't play offense well enough (similar to the Bulls out east). The Thunder and Blazers are better balanced, but are both like weaker versions of the Heat at full strength.
Add it up and the Heat are probably one of the top 3 teams in the league, if not top 2. I could see the Thunder beating them at their own game for a game or two, with Westbrook's crazy speed, Durant's crazy accuracy, and Ibaka down low. The Grizzlies might beat them once if they could make it an ugly game. Besides that, the Spurs are the only team out west that would give the Heat a problem. So it really doesn't matter that the Heat play in a weaker conference. There is no statistical evidence that extra rest or "rust" affects playoff performance. The only thing that matters is which team is better constructed, coached, healthier, and matches up better. Strength or weakness of other teams in your conference is not a factor in a teams' overall quality.
With that out of the way, the Spurs have played better so far and are up 2-1 because they are deeper, better coached, and match up better. Compared to last years' Finals, the Spurs are mostly the same, but their role players are better. The Heat, on the other hand, are thinner (no Mike Miller, regression by Battier and Bird Man) and rely on LeBron as much as the Cavs ever did. Bosh is mostly a 3 and D role player. Wade has lost a step and still scores, but not at a sufficient rate. Ray Allen is about the same: clutch shooting and poor defense. Chalmers and Cole have been bad. As stated above, they are still in the top 3 despite these facts because of LeBron. LeBron scores around the basket at an astronomical rate and is well above league average from outside the paint too. This is in spite of the fact he has one the leagues' highest usage rates, which usually hurts efficiency. The Heat succeed based upon LeBron's brilliance, hot stretches by Wade, great athleticism, and clutch shooting by LeBron, Bosh, Allen, and Rashard Lewis.
Those strengths have been enough to cover for their weaknesses up until the Finals, but thus far, it hasn't worked against the Spurs. Their athleticism and ball movement is wearing down the Heat. LeBron has done all he can, but the Heat have lessened the damage somewhat with Kawahi's defense. The rest of the series will be about whether the Heat can slow down the Spurs and get more consistent production from players not named LeBron. They have in years past, but maybe not with this squad.
Can't wait for Game 4!
