LegendofJoe said:
You make some good points here, however I think you are discounting the amount of potential allies Jon, Sansa, Arya, and Bran have available to them. Jon is the Lord Commander of the Night's Watch. While this is not the same as being the head of a great House it is still a powerful position of leadership, with the possible advantage of having the wildlings at his side. He also has a budding friendship with Stannis who, while subdued and defeated, is nonetheless the lord of Storm's End. The possible blood relationship with Dany should be considered as well.
Problem is, his friendship with Stannis puts him at odds with the Seven Kingdoms, which at the moment are mostly in Lannister control. Plus they may get a more antagonistic relationship as things go along. If you take him just as the Lord Commander of the NW and outside Stannis influence, remember that he's down in numbers, has almost zero support of the Realm, and most of his best/most loyal/most honorable men are dead or missing (Mormont, Benjen, Halfhand, Noye).
For now Jon's only thoughts are maintaining and rebuilding the missing parts of the Wall and preparing for the Others while weaving around the drama Stannis is causing by being on the Wall.
He has few allies left.
Sansa has even more potential allies than Jon. At the moment she is garnering the love and devotion of Littlefinger, and we all know how capable he is. With the storyline being set down in Feast it would not be surprising at all if she ends up having the entire Vale at her disposal. Arya, on the otherhand, is a complete wildcard. I have no idea where she will end up or what kind of allies/friends she will have available to her. However, the simple fact that she is in Bravos sets her up for many interesting possibilities.
I disagree with the first line; people seem to like her, but they're all convinced she's Littlefinger's daughter and a bastard. And the Vale is turning on Littlefinger. Littlefinger is gaining his allies, but for the most part Sansa is alone with him and Robert though she seems to be finding a friend in Robert Baratheon's bastard daughter.
Plus the entire realm thinks she's the new Kingslayer. The only support she might get would be from the Blackfish and Edmure, but they have their own issues which I'll note below.
Last but not least is the all-powerful warg Bran. He has the Reeds at his side, which I have a strong feeling are going to be playing a big role in the 6th and 7th books. His supernatural talents could also draw allies to him from many various places. After all his ability to control the bodies of animals and people, as well as see through the eyes of weirwoods, could make him highly valuable to any military campaign. And let's not forget the small fact that Bran is the rightful lord of Winterfell.
You make a good point about Bran becoming powerful in another way, but he's still an 8-9 year old boy who's supposedly dead and is a cripple. He'll find no allies south of the wall. Despite him being lord of Winterfell in all but recognized title, I think he will concentrate more on what's happening in the North.
When he does declare himself, which I don't think he ever will, he will likely remain a warg and some sort of shaman, but not a lord.
Alternatively he may decide to still become lord of winterfell, and fight for it (remember Winterfell is the new Harrenhal - Bolton believes he has a claim to it, Tyrion has a claim to it and Littlefinger as well). If so, I would be happy, but he's still a little boy.
Moreover, I think you were too quick to dismiss Edmure and the Blackfish. While their armies are, for the most part, crushed they are still nonetheless the lords of the Riverlands. And with the way things are going for the Lannisters and Freys they definitely won't be out of the picture for long. So in total that leaves the Starks 4 out of the 7 major houses as potential allies. Their adversaries, the Lannisters and Iron Islanders, cannot possibly stand against their combined forces. The Vale is the key though, if they fight for the Starks the game of thrones will be over for the Lannisters and Tyrells (if it isn't already).
I don't want to dismiss them, but I feel like they're in a 300 situation. Everything south and north of the Neck are enemies with them. The Freys, their nearest neighbors, have not only openly declared war with them, but have wanted to wipe Riverrun from the map for the last 90 years. Now that they have the support of the crown, it could happen.
Edmure is captive and has basically become a Lannister yes-man. And if by some bizarre chance his "wife" is pregnant, then that's another claim to Riverrun. (Please excuse some ignorance on this part, I'm still working my way through a re-read of FFC and I barely understood the political machinations going on in the Riverlands in my first readthrough).
The Blackfish is rallying the north right now and I feel he could be a powerful ally to the children at some point, but one of their few. But at the same time, I wonder who might ally with the Blackfish: the Mormonts and Umbers are still around, despite them losing a child/warrior each at the Red Wedding the older ones are around and rode beside the Blackfish in the war against Tywin. I think Blackfish could be the one to help fight off the Ironmen, but in doing so he'd still be at war with Bolton as well.
God damn the North is dangerous right now, just as the south is starting to clean up.
That also reminds me of something interesting: if something were to happen to Edmure, technically wouldn't the Stark kids have a claim to Rivverun? And Robin/Robert? Imagine if they could crush the Freys and truly control the north, but not from the neck up, from the trident up. King in the North indeed.
Admittedly, I am ignoring the impact of the Others and Dany, but we don't know enough about where the chips will fall there to draw any conclusions at this time. I hope this will change by the time we finish reading Dance though. Regardless, I am incredibly excited to see where Martin decides to takes things. It's going to be an awesome ride.
The Others and Dany will change a lot. Dany will rally some to her cause (Dorne, possibly the Iron men and maybe the Starks/Blackfish?) and may divide the war into two battles instead of half a dozen.
The Others on the other hand will unite the people who survive Dany's war, I believe.