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[donny2112]

What is NPD?: NPD is one of the main retail tracking firms in the U.S., and also about the only one who specifically goes into detail on video games sales. This thread is to predict what the NPD hardware sales will be for the most recent month. NPD months are defined here, from jvm.
What do I win?: Bragging rights. We also keep track of predictions over the year and have an annual contest using "points." Still just bragging rights, but Sales-Agers have fun seeing how well we can do with it. See here for details on the point calculations.

Prediction entries must be in and finalized by 8 p.m. EDT on Monday, May 12th. Format use is required if you want your entry counted.

NPD Coverage: April 6-May 3, 2014 (4 weeks, March was 5 weeks)
NPD Release: Thursday, May 15th @ 4 p.m. EDT (thread posted ~6:30 p.m. EDT)

Format:
Note: PS3 and WIU will only be counted for unit results and cardinal order bonus. They are not included for point results.

[360]
[3DS]
[PS3]
[PS4]
[WIU]
[XB1]

Good/Bad Formatting

Good              Bad
[PS4] 300K       [PS4] 300 thousand
[PS4] 300,000    [PS4] 300.000
[PS4] 300000     [PS4] - 300000

Potential hardware impacting events in April:
PS4 supply constraints are ended

March's Results - thanks to Aquamarine and various angles

Real sales:

[360] 111K
[3DS] 159K
[PS3] 67K
[PS4] 371K
[WIU] 70K
[XB1] 311K

March 2013 NPD thread
April 2013 NPD thread

NPD Prediction Thread Archive

 

[SwiftDeath]

[PS4] 265k
[XB1] 170k
[3DS] 115k
[360] 85k
[PS3] 60k
[WIU] 55k

 

[shwimpy]

retailers priced the xbox one back to the msrp for the majority of the month right? it'll probably be a bloodbath.

 

[theprodigy]

Isn't there technically a day left?
brb buying a bunch of 360s to throw all of you off

 

[HomerSimpson-Man]

Man, a month flew by already. 2014 feels so fast to me.

 

[HooYaH]

Vita+Slim: 20k

 

[sjagolinzer]

[360] 99K
[3DS] 123K
[PS3] 57K
[PS4] 289K
[WIU] 69K
[XB1] 173K

 

[Jamix012]

[PS4] 269k
[XB1] 189k
[3DS] 134k
[360] 98k
[PS3] 51k
[WIU] 53k

 

[Duxxy3]

[PS4] 280k
[XB1] 160k
[3DS] 120k
[360] 105k
[PS3] 85k
[WIU] 60k

edit: bonus figures

[Wii] 30k
[PSP] 3k
[VITA] 8k

 

[robo]

Gonna have a go for the first time.

[360] 107k
[3DS] 165k
[PS3] 56k
[PS4] 267k
[WIU] 49k
[XB1] 143k

 

[CMojicaAce]

Damn, predictions already? Feels like only yesterday the NPD results for March came in!

 

[Hoo-doo]

I have a feeling XB1 is going to drop off huge.

Maybe titanfall hype will keep them afloat, but hype for that game already seems completely gone.

 

[freefornow]

[PS4] 315k
[XB1] 238k
[3DS] 135k
[360] 110k
[PS3] 81k
[WIU] 53k

 

[noobie]

[360] 80K
[3DS] 135K
[PS3] 55K
[PS4] 270K
[WIU] 65K
[XB1] 165K

 

[travisbickle]

[360] 115K
[3DS] 145K
[PS3] 55K
[PS4] 361K
[WIU] 65K
[XB1] 174K


Thought process: PS4 shipped the same as last month practically sold out again, XB1 is keeping in touching distance with aggressive pricing. 360 most popular last gen console, wiiu is wiiu.

 

[Tagg9]

[360] 98K
[3DS] 119K
[PS3] 74K
[PS4] 313K
[WIU] 55K
[XB1] 160K

 

[dreamghost]

[360] 75K
[3DS] 133K
[PS3] 53K
[PS4] 290K
[WIU] 65K
[XB1] 145K

 

[pieatorium]

[360] 90K
[3DS] 120K
[PS3] 50K
[PS4] 300K
[WIU] 50K
[XB1] 225K

 

[BigDug13]

Man, a month flew by already. 2014 feels so fast to me.

That's because the actual results don't happen until week 3 and the prediction thread starts up 2 weeks later. Makes it seem like "1 month" has passed within a 2 week period.

 

[andy_lhc]

[360] 90k
[3DS] 133k
[PS3] 60k
[PS4] 300k
[WIU] 58k
[XB1] 200k

 

[Undead]

[360] 82k
[3DS] 99k
[PS3] 65k
[PS4] 365k
[WIU] 54k
[XB1] 276k

 

[shinra-bansho]

[PS4] 275K
[XB1] 205K
[3DS] 90K
[360] 58K
[WIU] 42K
[PS3] 37K

 

[Zero-Crescent]

[360] 60k
[3DS] 80k
[PS3] 35k
[WIU] 40k
[XB1] 157k
[PS4] 187k

 

[michaelius]

[PS4] 290K
[XB1] 220K
[3DS] 115K
[360] 80K
[WIU] 50K
[PS3] 45K

 

[Canis lupus]

[360] 80k
[3DS] 100k
[PS3] 60k
[PS4] 240k
[WIU] 65k
[XB1] 160k
[VITA] 14k

 

[Hoo-doo]

[360] 75K
[3DS] 90K
[PS3] 50K
[PS4] 310K
[WIU] 30K
[XB1] 170K

 

[1st Course]

[360] 60K
[3DS] 85K
[PS3] 45K
[PS4] 270K
[WIU] 70K
[XB1] 160K

 

[RamzaIsCool]

[360] 120k
[3DS] 130k
[PS3] 70k
[PS4] 300k
[WIU] 60k
[XB1] 190k

 

[Mory Dunz]

So does April normally decrease from March across the board usually?

 

[EGM1966]

First try :

[PS4] 285k
[XB1] 200k
[3DS] 105k
[360] 95k
[PS3] 55k
[WIU] 45k

 

[S¡mon]

[360] 89K
[3DS] 127K
[PS3] 54K
[PS4] 297K
[WIU] 56K
[XB1] 187K

XB1 will see the biggest drop compared to last month: no big title launching and price increased again back to $499.

 

[sacrificengineer]

[360] 95K
[3DS] 130K
[PS3] 45K
[PS4] 280K
[WIU] 50K
[XB1] 205K

 

[jryi]

So does April normally decrease from March across the board usually?

Has there been anything normal about this cycle yet?

OK, just speaking from new-gen perspective: I guess there were no significant new releases, and the post-Titanfall/Infamous slump may slow down sales. I'm not going to make a prediction of my own, as I couldn't handle the humiliation, but I'd bet that both PS4 and Xbox One are going to drop a bit. Xbox One probably more so.

These are my favorite threads, BTW. With Aquamarine and Abdiel (among others) explaining the inner workings of retails, I'm really learning a lot.

 

[michaelius]

So does April normally decrease from March across the board usually?

Yes - february/march is tax return time in USA and March was 5 weeks month while April is 4 weeks ( so 20% less sales without even adjusting for other trends)

 

[Chobel]

[PS4] 235k
[XB1] 151k
[3DS] 121k
[360] 68k
[PS3] 43k
[WIU] 57k

 

[Culex]

[PS4] 215k
[XB1] 155k
[3DS] 103k
[360] 49k
[PS3] 40k
[WIU] 40k

 

[Loris146]

[PS4] 285k
[XB1] 180k
[3DS] 125k
[360] 80k
[PS3] 50k
[WIU] 60k

 

[kadotsu]

[PS4] 220k
[XB1] 98k
[3DS] 90k
[360] 70k
[PS3] 22k
[WIU] 20k

 

[Man-is-Obsolete]

[PS4] 300k
[XB1] 150k
[3DS] 100k
[360] 75k
[PS3] 60k
[WIU] 55k

Feel like everything will be down this month with the Xbone just falling a lot. People expect a discount on the Xbone now. It being back at MSRP hurts.

 

[prag16]

[PS4] 240k
[XB1] 145k
[3DS] 125k
[360] 70k
[WIU] 55k
[PS3] 45k

EDIT: Analysis: With discounts/bundles less prevalent, I expect XB1 to fall off a cliff. I expect a big drop for PS3 as well since we're past some of that flood of purchases from those who had to wait due to early supply constraints.

I'd be somewhat surprised if PS4 tops 300k. I'd be a little more surprised if xbone tops 200k. Wii U.. nothing launched. Maybe a few people bought due to Kart/Smash hype.

 

[Graphics Horse]

[PS4] 271k
[XB1] 141k
[3DS] 135k
[360] 88k
[WIU] 57k
[PS3] 55k

Copied the first 3 from January numbers. PS4 could be a lot lower, but it's hard to tell.

 

[Chobel]

[PS4] 271k
[XB1] 141k
[3DS] 97k
[360] 88k
[WIU] 57k
[PS3] 55k

LOL.

 

[1.21Gigawatts]

[360] 110K
[3DS] 150K
[PS3] 60K
[PS4] 280K
[WIU] 80K
[XB1] 150K

 

[Majmun]

Was the PS4 readily availabe everywhere in NA?

 

[Insane Metal]

[PS4] 242k
[XB1] 145k
[3DS] 130k
[360] 120k
[PS3] 78k
[WIU] 60k

 

[astrogamer]

[XB1] 200k
[PS4] 260k
[360] 100k
[PS3] 60k
[3DS] 130k
[WiiU] 72k

 

[Massa]

Vita+Slim: 20k

The Vita slim comes out next week. The old model was out of stock everywhere throughout April, I'd expect lower numbers than March.

 

[Skeff]

[360] 95K
[3DS] 125K
[PS3] 55K
[PS4] 301K
[WIU] 45K
[XB1] 175K

Everything lower for the 4 week month, but XB1 to drop off more severely.

 

[ascii42]

[360] 85K
[3DS] 111K
[PS3] 55K
[PS4] 292K
[WIU] 45K
[XB1] 165K

 

[Prototype Viktor]

[PS4] 292k
[XB1] 110k
[3DS] 133k
[360] 110k
[PS3] 65k
[WIU] 78k