Are we doing box office predictions for BvS?
I think BvS doing a billion would be a disappointment. Batman was pretty huge with the Nolan movies, and this is his return to the big screen after 4 years. I know the popular opinion amongst the GAF minority is to hate on TDKR, but it's considered a great movie by general critical and populist metrics. The entire trilogy has a lot of goodwill so Batman is coming from as big of a high as possible. Granted, part of the TDK trilogys success is to do with that particular universe Nolan created, but it no doubt did a lot for Batman's box office power in general. Though I guess we're going to see how true that is with this movie. And while Man of Steel wasn't huge at the box office, it still did respectably. It performed really well on home video if I remember correctly too.
I don't think there's any reason to hold Man of Steel's gross against this movie however, as Superman may not be a huge superhero, but he carries with him legacy. That's pretty important in the context of this movie. I've always thought the movies leading to the Avengers didn't really mean anything except Iron Man/Iron Man 2. The Avengers movies still treat Iron Man as the central character, and Avengers doing so well is more a testament to it becoming a must see blockbuster movie. A couple of movies grossing $400 million doesn't do much for that, especially when you're looking at a $1.5 billion movie in 2012. It also explains why Iron Man 3 was so successful with a gross that wasn't far from Avengers itself. He was pretty much the central piece, and the other superheroes essentially turned it into a huge must see movie. I feel that happens with or without the build up of Thor or Captain America. BvS will support that belief once it finishes that run, but I imagine the conversation will then change to the fact that Batman and Superman were already big superheroes in the first place so its success should have been expected.
I think the fact that I feel me saying BvS doing a billion would be a disappointment is a little unfair, since a lot of people on GAF have been saying it wasn't even going to reach that in the past on here. That line of conversation has definitely changed a little however as more people are becoming less ignorant of the box office in general. I'm aware of that, but I'm obviously talking about my own point of view here. $1 billion has always felt like an easy lock to me since the movie was announced, and an underperformance of sorts. To me, it was always a matter of how high above a billion it could go. That's really what it comes down to.
Batman carries the bulk of the box office power, but the additional weight provided with Superman, and the context of their first movie together, should help make this movie a must see production. It actually helps that this movie also has Wonder Woman, which I didn't even expect a couple years ago. That's an added bonus I think. It brings it closer to being a Justice League movie rather than just a Batman and Superman one. Not a huge difference, but one that is still slightly important. They remain uncontested for almost an entire month too, which I always thought was a very smart move by Warner Bros.
I think $600 million overseas with an additional $150 million in China would be a pretty safe guess (for overseas, since for China, that's pretty good). That's $750 million without domestic. $400 million domestic should be happening no matter what. Basically, I think $1 billion is an easy lock, and it's kind of a pointless guess. Around $1.2 billion feels like a safe estimate for this movie. If you were to be conservative, I think that's around where you'd fall.
But I consider $600 million overseas and $400 million domestic an under performance. Of course, that's just me. I've explained why I feel like that above. $150 million in China is the only good performance there. It should really squeeze out $700 million overseas without China however, and about $500-600 domestic in my eyes. That would be more along the lines of it doing good.
So around $1.4-1.5 billion wouldn't be a surprise to me. That would fall in line with my expectations.
To me, the real surprise, and whether it actually over performs is whether it's able to get above that mark, and by how much. I realise that using an Avengers comparison isn't exact, since this movie only has Batman, Superman, and Wonder Woman, but Batman and Superman being in a movie for the first time is a pretty big deal in itself. They carry most of the weight even if it's Justice League.
I feel Justice League would obviously be bigger on the first go around, but only by so much. Flash and Green Lantern only make so much of a difference to the ensemble, and the larger impact of having Batman and Superman in the movie, now with Wonder Woman, is still present with BvS. It's also smarter to do it this way really. The more important thing is introducing Batman, since he's easily the most popular superhero. Avengers without Iron Man flops. You've got to build up the big superheroes, and since Superman is established, it's more important to introduce this new Batman to audiences as the TDK trilogy needs to be distanced.
The only real thing holding this movie back is that Marvel is very much the popular choice amongst general audiences. This interconnected universe with multiple superheroes is kind of their thing really. Being the first one to do things does matter, and people tend to follow trends. That's why marketing is what it is, and why it works so well. I don't think that should be too much of a barrier however.
Having said that, around $1.4 billion would be this movie performing to my expectations for it. $1 billion would be an underperformance. Below $1 billion is a definite disappointment. Above $1.5 billion is it going beyond expectations, and genuinely surprising me. Not too much, since I think it has a genuine shot at that if it's received well, but still a surprise. For it to do that however, it needs to do really well overseas and in China, which I feel is a lot easier said than done. Domestic will likely be good, if not great for this movie.
