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[Violence Jack]

Friday Studio Estimates:

1) Suicide Squad - $65.1M
2) Jason Bourne - $6.6M (-71%) - $87M total
3) Bad Moms - $4.5M (-53%) - $41M total
4) The Secret Life of Pets (-41%) - $3.3M - $311M total
5) Star Trek Beyond - $2.6M (-61%) - $120M total
6) Nine Lives - $2.4M
7) Lights Out - $1.9M (-46%) - $51M total
8) Nerve - $1.6M (-50%) - $24M total
9) Ice Age: Collision Course - $1.2M (-64%) - $50M total
10) Finding Dory - $500k (-58%) - $472M total

Ghostbusters is currently listed at $135k for Friday, but that is likely a typo by BOM. I doubt it fell over 95% this weekend.

I absolutely believe it.

 

[wesleyshark]

Poor Star Trek

Ugh.

 

[HeySeuss]

Eh, I liked SS. I think people expect too much sometimes. It certainly had its issues, but I thought it was a fun and entertaining movie. Harley stole theshow though, she was great. Will Smith played the same character that he plays in every other movie he's been in.

I really enjoyed Diablo too. I thought he probably had the best arch or all of them.

 

[kswiston]

After this weekend, the domestic Top 10 for 2016 will consist of 5 talking animal movies and 5 superhero movies.

 

[kurahador]

After this weekend, the domestic Top 10 for 2016 will consist of 5 talking animal movies and 5 superhero movies.

 

[Schlorgan]

Poor Star Trek

Ugh.

It'll probably do pretty well in China with almost no competition. It doesn't open there until next month, though.

 

[Count Dookkake]

Scoff all you want, but Ghostbusters has at last given girls pyrrhic role models.

 

[Affeinvasion]

Poor Star Trek

Ugh.

It was probably the best star trek movie in decades and this is coming from the guy who really disliked the last two. Even the cringe worthy scene couldn't ruin it for me.

 

[kswiston]

If Suicide Squad can top BvS domestically, BvS will finish the year in the #9 or #10 spot.

Edit: However that will allow WB to point out that each DCEU film does better than the last.

 

[CaviarMeths]

BvS started dropping like a rock by its first Sunday. 10 days is usually when you can start making decent projections, but we should know in the next couple of days how SS is doing compared to BvS.

Star Trek deserved better. =/

 

[kswiston]

Box Office Mojo fixed Ghostbusters. #9 at $1.3M, down 55% from last week

 

[Schlorgan]

Star Trek deserved better. =/

A fun, solid summer sci-fi action/adventure movie isn't worth seeing as much as an aggressively mediocre comic book movie with a good marketing campaign. That's the takeaway here.

 

[pestul]

Poor Star Trek

Ugh.

I know it would be difficult, but they really need to do a Trek in the $100-120M range. $185M + marketing is so bloody hard to recoup unless you have a smash hit.

 

[alfredofroylan]

Box Office Mojo fixed Ghostbusters. #9 at $1.3M, down 55% from last week

Suicide Squad is going to do in 1 weekend as much as GB in 4 weeks, Sony needs to take lessons from Warner's marketing department.

 

[Dash_Riprock]

After 1 day, Suicide Squad is already the third biggest live action opening for the summer, about $700k behind X-Men Apocalypse's entire 3-day weekend take. It will become the second biggest live action film of the summer after Monday or Tuesday (4-5 days in release). This summer has been terrible outside of Civil War and the two big animated films.




That International total seems sort of front loaded with $33M on Friday vs ~$21M on Thursday and $9M (from fewer markets) on Wednesday.

BvS made $89M on its first Friday after making $48M on Wed/Thurs.

SS isn't coming out in China right?

 

[UberTag]

After this weekend, the domestic Top 10 for 2016 will consist of 5 talking animal movies and 5 superhero movies.

When do we get our talking animal superhero movie?

 

[Obliterator]

Harley bringing in the girls. I think that gender ratio is better than pretty much every major superhero film released. The least skewed Marvel films were just shy of 60% male.

Yeah that's really impressive. I think a lot of girls / women are interested in seeing this because of her.

 

[Kenzodielocke]

Yeah that's really impressive. I think a lot of girls / women are interested in seeing this because of her.

Gives me hope for Wonder Woman.

 

[BumRush]

Suicide Squad is going to do in 1 weekend as much as GB in 4 weeks, Sony needs to take lessons from Warner's marketing department.

They're entirely different films with very different tones...but I do agree with you that the marketing department for SS knocked this one out of the park.

 

[jett]

After this weekend, the domestic Top 10 for 2016 will consist of 5 talking animal movies and 5 superhero movies.

Kung Fu Panda 3 had superhero talking animals and yet underperformed. I guess science went too far.

 

[cackhyena]

Holy shit at that Bourne drop.

 

[CassidyIzABeast]

Bourne and Trek....yeesh

 

[Deleted member 1235]

did anyone see bfg? Loved that book as a kid so I really wanted it to be good

 

[kswiston]

SS isn't coming out in China right?

It doesnt look likely.


So, Wachie posted an article in the other thread about the quoted $175M budget being after reshoots (which were $22M). I think that rumored $800M break even point is definitely overstated.

 

[vinnygambini]

It doesnt look likely.


So, Wachie posted an article in the other thread about the quoted $175M budget being after reshoots (which were $22M). I think that rumored $800M break even point is definitely overstated.

$650-700M should be fine for break-even point.

Duno where $800M is coming from.

 

[Discotheque]

Yeah that's really impressive. I think a lot of girls / women are interested in seeing this because of her.

I wonder how wonder woman plays out as well

 

[kswiston]

$650-700M should be fine for break-even point.

Duno where $800M is coming from.

One of the trades citing "insider" rumors. If $175M films needed anything close to $800M to break even, we would have stopped getting a lot of series a long time ago.

 

[UberTag]

did anyone see bfg? Loved that book as a kid so I really wanted it to be good

This seems to be the year of little kids and their giant CGI companion movies. From The BFG to Pete's Dragon to A Monster Calls... and despite all of these films being made nobody decided to put together a live-action version of The Iron Giant. I'm disappointed.

 

[rekameohs]

This seems to be the year of little kids and their giant CGI companion movies. From The BFG to Pete's Dragon to A Monster Calls... and despite all of these films being made nobody decided to put together a live-action version of The Iron Giant. I'm disappointed.

Eh, don't mess with The Iron Giant. It's great as it is; don't need any more.

 

[vinnygambini]

One of the trades citing "insider" rumors. If $175M films needed anything close to $800M to break even, we would have stopped getting a lot of series a long time ago.

Yeah, unless Will Smith has a first dollar gross deal (which wouldn't even be included for break-even point to begin with for production), I doubt that the $800M suggested has any weight.

 

[Baleoce]

It was probably the best star trek movie in decades and this is coming from the guy who really disliked the last two. Even the cringe worthy scene couldn't ruin it for me.

Yeah I feel the same.

 

[3N16MA]

One of the trades citing "insider" rumors. If $175M films needed anything close to $800M to break even, we would have stopped getting a lot of series a long time ago.

Wasn't there some report that the budget went over 200M? Can't keep up with all the rumors about this film.

 

[broncobuster]

I wonder how wonder woman plays out as well

Production and reception of Wonder Woman as whole will be interesting to follow. Thus far the budget tossed around is $100mil, or at least starting at that. Depending on WB's course correct strategy, wouldn't be surprised if they'll order reshoots. Although it's tricky with Gal Gadot filming Justice League now. Nine or ten months til then. Before that, there's the Harry Potter spin-off that can cause larger shakeups at WB if and when it fails to attract audiences.

 

[Leeness]

This seems to be the year of little kids and their giant CGI companion movies. From The BFG to Pete's Dragon to A Monster Calls... and despite all of these films being made nobody decided to put together a live-action version of The Iron Giant. I'm disappointed.

Monster Calls is going to be amazing. The writer of the book did the screenplay, and the book is one of the best things I've ever read. <3

Looking forward to watching the SS box office over the next few days.

Tentatively looking forward to WW. I will see it to support superhero women, but hope it's not hot garbage like all other DCU movies so far...

 

[Frosty Droid]

One of the trades citing "insider" rumors. If $175M films needed anything close to $800M to break even, we would have stopped getting a lot of series a long time ago.

That was Kim Masters at The Hollywood Reporter, not Umberto Gonzalez or some rando on Reddit.

 

[Biggest-Geek-Ever]

I'll go ahead and cross post here, too

Rth on BOT is saying Suicide Squad is looking at mid 30's for today, which would be horrendous drop of ~45%.

 

[CaviarMeths]

Holy shit at that Bourne drop.

Friday to Friday drops like that are actually pretty normal these days with Thursday previews starting earlier and earlier. Don't forget that those preview numbers are included in the first Friday.

Edit: Or wait, did Bourne have Thursday previews? Yikes if no...

 

[Ross61]

Production and reception of Wonder Woman as whole will be interesting to follow. Thus far the budget tossed around is $100mil, or at least starting at that. Depending on WB's course correct strategy, wouldn't be surprised if they'll order reshoots. Although it's tricky with Gal Gadot filming Justice League now. Nine or ten months til then. Before that, there's the Harry Potter spin-off that can cause larger shakeups at WB if and when it fails to attract audiences.

Reshoot scare definitely coming and it would be normal for a movie like this. Word from Faraci's makes it seem like the studio is happy with the tone tho.

 

[vinnygambini]

That was Kim Masters at The Hollywood Reporter, not Umberto Gonzalez or some rando on Reddit.

The quote says $750-800M for those interested.

It's an individual from the industry (or analyst, it's not quite clear). At this point, they are just throwing darts to which number is the break-even point.

 

[Anth0ny]

I'll go ahead and cross post here, too

Told y'all

Not even waiting a week for the crazy drops. Next week will be a 98% drop at LEAST

 

[mreddie]

Friday Studio Estimates:

2) Jason Bourne - $6.6M (-71%) - $87M total
3) Bad Moms - $4.5M (-53%) - $41M total
5) Star Trek Beyond - $2.6M (-61%) - $120M total
6) Nine Lives - $2.4M
8) Nerve - $1.6M (-50%) - $24M total
9) Ghostbusters - $1.3M (-55%) - $113M total
10) Ice Age: Collision Course - $1.2M (-64%) - $50M total

 

[dabig2]

I'll go ahead and cross post here, too

Any comparisons to other films to get some sort of frame of reference? Did the previews frontload this movie a lot?

Also, do the Olympics historically have an effect on movies at the BO?

 

[Biggest-Geek-Ever]

Any comparisons to other films to get some sort of frame of reference? Did the previews frontload this movie a lot?

Also, do the Olympics historically have an effect on movies at the BO?

BvS previously had the worst Friday-to-Saturday drop for a superhero film at 38%. Mid 30's for Suicide Squad would be considerably worse for a number of reasons not even tied to the percentage value:

1) BvS opened on Good Friday, which is a much stronger day for the box office than a random Friday in August. Meaning, films in general see higher increases on a Saturday in August than the Saturday following Good Friday.
2) The previews share for BvS was higher than for Suicide Squad, so for it to have a bigger decline today means that business from Friday proper fell off a cliff, roughly 20% if mid 30's holds. That's a massive, alarming decline.
3) The most viewed segment of the Olympics is the opening ceremony, so if there was to be a negative impact on BO, it would have been felt yesterday. Admittedly though, this year's opening ceremonies were the lowest viewed in 24 years.

 

[kswiston]

Mid 30s would be hilariously bad coming off a $65M first day. Time to downgrade that opening to $125M!

 

[Biggest-Geek-Ever]

Mid 30s would be hilariously bad coming off a $65M first day. Time to downgrade that opening to $125M!

I guess we have our answer as to what will be the first $200-299M film of the year.

That Saturday number is so bad I'm not even sure Suicide Squad will cross $250M.

 

[CaviarMeths]

I can't believe that number. Word of mouth seems fairly neutral. What would cause such an alarming drop?

There has to be a mistake somewhere.

 

[vinnygambini]

Mid 30s would be hilariously bad coming off a $65M first day. Time to downgrade that opening to $125M!

True Friday was what, $45M?

It's not bad per se, but definitely a worrying trend.

If it's $125M OW, it's definitely not reaching $300M domestically.

 

[kswiston]

True Friday was what, $45M?

It's not bad per se, but definitely a worrying trend.

If it's $125M OW, it's definitely not reaching $300M domestically.

Nah, mid 30s (which I am taking as something in the $34-36M range) would be horrible.

Even the upper end of that range would be a 20% drop from Friday proper. You'd have to start looking at stuff like The Fault in Our Stars to find drops larger than that.

BvS was only down 6% on Saturday from Friday proper, and that was a pretty poor hold for a superhero film. Last year, Ant-Man increased 20% on its first Saturday over Friday proper. Guardians increased 16% in the August before that.

 

[Dash_Riprock]

I'll go ahead and cross post here, too

Welp, so much for WoM being better than BvS.

 

[Log4Girlz]

Fyi T Mobile gave tons of free tix for fri SS