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[Timu]

Suicide Squad is going to do in 1 weekend as much as GB in 4 weeks, Sony needs to take lessons from Warner's marketing department.

That's pretty hilarious...and sad, lol.

 

[kurahador]

Casual movie goers are more critical on superhero movies now.

 

[Dash_Riprock]

Casual movie goers are more critical on superhero movies now.

Moviegoers are more critical about all films now. Good, Hollywood can't trick us into watching shit anymore. Not when more than half the audience warns their friends about it on Facebook and Twitter.

 

[dabig2]

BvS previously had the worst Friday-to-Saturday drop for a superhero film at 38%. Mid 30's for Suicide Squad would be considerably worse for a number of reasons not even tied to the percentage value:

1) BvS opened on Good Friday, which is a much stronger day for the box office than a random Friday in August. Meaning, films in general see higher increases on a Saturday in August than the Saturday following Good Friday.
2) The previews share for BvS was higher than for Suicide Squad, so for it to have a bigger decline today means that business from Friday proper fell off a cliff, roughly 20% if mid 30's holds. That's a massive, alarming decline.
3) The most viewed segment of the Olympics is the opening ceremony, so if there was to be a negative impact on BO, it would have been felt yesterday. Admittedly though, this year's opening ceremonies were the lowest viewed in 24 years.

Nah, mid 30s (which I am taking as something in the $34-36M range) would be horrible.

Even the upper end of that range would be a 20% drop from Friday proper. You'd have to start looking at stuff like The Fault in Our Stars to find drops larger than that.

BvS was only down 6% on Saturday from Friday proper, and that was a pretty poor hold for a superhero film. Last year, Ant-Man increased 20% on its first Saturday over Friday proper. Guardians increased 16% in the August before that.

Good info. Thanks guys. And yeah, that sounds pretty bad. Can't believe that WoM may screw this movie over worse than BvS. I haven't seen it yet, but I know people that have that I trust and they didn't seem to hate the movie (unlike that droll mess BvS).

So if Saturday is such a big drop, then I guess Sunday's estimate will be revised down too. Monday actuals should be intriguing to say the least.

 

[Sibersk Esto]

I guess everybody on the "was going to see it anyway" train peaked early.

 

[vinnygambini]

Nah, mid 30s (which I am taking as something in the $34-36M range) would be horrible.

Even the upper end of that range would be a 20% drop from Friday proper. You'd have to start looking at stuff like The Fault in Our Stars to find drops larger than that.

BvS was only down 6% on Saturday from Friday proper, and that was a pretty poor hold for a superhero film. Last year, Ant-Man increased 20% on its first Saturday over Friday proper. Guardians increased 16% in the August before that.

Hmm, well then.

Seems to me that BvS & Suicide Squad (or the DC films slate currently) are acting like Twilight films. Initial rush from the fans day 1 and then complete collapse.

 

[Dash_Riprock]

Hmm, well then.

Seems to me that BvS & Suicide Squad (or the DC films slate currently) are acting like Twilight films. Initial rush from the fans day 1 and then complete collapse.

I guess everybody on the "was going to see it anyway" train peaked early.

This may actually be what happened, and what happened with BvS:

All the hardcore DC fans see it midnight/opening day, along with a ton of casuals swayed by the excellent marketing campaign.

Yet while the fans (obviously) love it and defend/ignore its flaws, casuals who are not emotionally invested and thus far more critical either hate it or just don't like enough to recommend, resulting in a Friday to Saturday drop and culminating in a 2nd weekend collapse as other casuals are told by their friends to not bother.

 

[Frosty Droid]

The quote says $750-800M for those interested.

It's an individual from the industry (or analyst, it's not quite clear). At this point, they are just throwing darts to which number is the break-even point.

What is the basis for this assumption if you don't know the identity of the source? The Hollywood Reporter isn't a fan blog and Kim Masters isn't a hack. There are standards for anonymous sourcing in journalism. You don't that run that quote if it's a wild guess.

 

[Ahasverus]

I don't believe it. I'm not rooting for the movie at all, I think its success sends the wrong message, but the wom is clearly, astoundingly more positive than BvS's and it's actually hitting some different demographic buttons. Something went on with those calculations.

 

[BronsonLee]

BLAME T-MOBILE

 

[kswiston]

Rth is never THAT far off. It's early, but if he's saying mid-30s, best case scenario will be $2-3M higher than that, which would still be a bad drop.

A BvS level drop from Friday proper would give you a Saturday just under $42M. Ideally, a superhero film with decent WOM would at least stay flat on Saturday, even if it didn't get the 10-20% Marvel bump.


I was expecting $42-45M myself. Not up to $10M lower than that.

 

[vinnygambini]

What is the basis for this assumption if you don't know the identity of the source? The Hollywood Reporter isn't a fan blog and Kim Masters isn't a hack. There are standards for anonymous sourcing in journalism. You don't that run that quote if it's a wild guess.

It's an industry vet blankly stating his opinion about break-even status.

This is not Hollywood Reporter's opinion or stated as such in the article.

Furthermore many analysts mentioned BvS needed at minimum $800M to break-even on a reported budget of $250M

So you are telling me, despite the lower reported budget difference of $75M ($175M for Suicide Squad), the break-even status is the same as BvS?

http://variety.com/2016/film/news/wb-batman-v-superman-faces-high-expectations-1201729887/

 

[Obliterator]

Wow so SS is dropping massively huh? I guess I shouldn't be surprised but I really am. I thought it was going to hold better from what I've seen on social media but I guess the people liking / defending it are much louder than those that aren't liking it

 

[PhoncipleBone]

So my $110-125 Guess is gonna be true? After Friday, I was expecting that to be blown away.

Now to see how big this thing can tank. And if the 2nd day is that big of a drop, could we get a new record 2nd weekend drop?

 

[Slayven]

So my $110-125 Guess is gonna be true? After Friday, I was expecting that to be blown away.

Now to see how big this thing can tank. And if the 2nd day is that big of a drop, could we get a new record 2nd weekend drop?

Treat yourself to the Divergent boxset

 

[PhoncipleBone]

Treat yourself to the Divergent boxset

I would rather send money to fund Vampire Academy 2.

 

[vinnygambini]

Treat yourself to the Divergent boxset

The best gift one can get

 

[kswiston]

Now to see how big this thing can tank. And if the 2nd day is that big of a drop, could we get a new record 2nd weekend drop?

For comic book films or in general? Sticking to 3000+ venue releases, I don't think anything is topping Friday the 13th and its 80.4% second weekend drop any time soon.


The comic book record is Hellboy 2 at 70.7%. If you don't want to count that as a superhero film there's good old Hulk 2003 at 69.7%

If the Saturday early estimates hold, Suicide Squad does have a shot at being one of those rare films that makes more than half of its weekend take on Friday.

 

[3N16MA]

That drop is horrendous. 140-150 was just a dream.

WB PR dude is going to have his work cut out. Considering their estimates were 125M, I'm assuming they will play up that number.

I didn't think it could have worse legs than BvS. WB must be shitting themselves.

 

[Freeza Under The Shower]

Treat yourself to the Divergent boxset

so would that be a duology, trilogy, or quadrology? Or three seasons and a movie?

edit: wowowoh, people didn't like Hellboy 2? But..but... but..I... I don't understand. It was pretty much a perfect comic book movie, as far as I remember.
*looks up BO*
OH come on! Really? 160 on 85 mill?
Somebody need to teach Del Toro how to do marketing.

 

[vinnygambini]

WB PR dude is going to have his work cut out.

"We achieved our biggest hit of the summer since Tarzan! We are extremely pleased"

 

[Ross61]

Dunno, could grow legs like Tarzan. The diversity of this movie will definitely play into that.

 

[Kenzodielocke]

I didn't think it could have worse legs than BvS. WB must be shitting themselves.

Good, as they should.

Make good movies for once. Thanks.

 

[BronsonLee]

Dunno, could grow legs like Tarzan. The diversity of this movie will definitely play into that.

Do you know how fucking insane this would sound like 3 months ago

We all had Tarzan pegged as Bomba Extreme, but dem abs kept it goin

 

[Branduil]

Dunno, could grow legs like Tarzan. The diversity of this movie will definitely play into that.

You're not going to have any kind of legs if your movie is dropping like BvS after its first day.

 

[3N16MA]

Dunno, could grow legs like Tarzan. The diversity of this movie will definitely play into that.

Tarzan actually surprised from its very first day and continued to hold pretty strong. SS is looking for one massive drop on its second day which doesn't play well for the rest of its run.

It could hold steady and muster better legs than BvS. Things just don't look good if that number holds.

 

[Obliterator]

Man if this things collapses how it's looking and won't even muster BvS legs WB needs to take a loooooong look at the DCU and wonder how the fuck they are going to salvage this thing

 

[3N16MA]

Good, as they should.

Make good movies for once. Thanks.

Haven't seen SS yet but MoS and BvS are nothing special. Both films have potential and a strong cast but they both end up being mediocre.

 

[Freeza Under The Shower]

Dunno, could grow legs like Tarzan. The diversity of this movie will definitely play into that.

Not enough abs to create legs of moist.

*puts up 'no teenage sons allowed' sign on theatre showing Tarzan*

M O I S T

 

[Kenzodielocke]

Haven't seen SS yet but MoS and BvS are nothing special. Both films have potential and a strong cast but they both end up being mediocre.

You know, I really like the ideas in MoS and BvS, both lack execution though. Because I am DC biased, I kinda like them, but they're not good movies.

 

[BronsonLee]

For what it's worth, I enjoyed Squad way more than MoS and BvS. And I saw both of those in advance at fancy pre-screenings!

 

[Ross61]

Man if this things collapses how it's looking and won't even muster BvS legs WB needs to take a loooooong look at the DCU and wonder how the fuck they are going to salvage this thing

Trust their directors to make a good movies without their interference.

 

[kswiston]

Dunno, could grow legs like Tarzan. The diversity of this movie will definitely play into that.

Tarzan went up 12% on Saturday (not counting Thursday previews), and had a holiday Monday. Also, if you are talking about audience diversity, that actually works against a film's legs. Old white people (Tarzan's bread and butter) are the least likely demographic to show up opening day.

 

[Dash_Riprock]

Man if this things collapses how it's looking and won't even muster BvS legs WB needs to take a loooooong look at the DCU and wonder how the fuck they are going to salvage this thing

I bet this causes them to interfere with WW's production even more and turn it into yet another badly edited mess.

Its a vicious cycle at this point

 

[Timu]

For what it's worth, I enjoyed Squad way more than MoS and BvS. And I saw both of those in advance at fancy pre-screenings!

I can understand BvS, that was so disappointing.

 

[3N16MA]

For what it's worth, I enjoyed Squad way more than MoS and BvS. And I saw both of those in advance at fancy pre-screenings!

So far I have walked away from two DCEU films feeling like there was so much wasted potential. Iconic characters being wasted on middling films and a subpar director.

 

[ezekial45]

I've never seen self-sabotage on this kind of scale. It really bums me out. WB really needs to get their act together. They can't squander this kind of talent and resources over and over again.

 

[vinnygambini]

We all had Tarzan pegged as Bomba Extreme, but dem abs kept it goin

And the V

 

[kswiston]

There's no way that WB was targeting more than $250M domestic on this film prior to the past month or two (unless they are crazy), so despite the expectations roller coaster, the final domestic tally will still be solid. This isn't Green Lantern.

 

[ryan299]

Man if this things collapses how it's looking and won't even muster BvS legs WB needs to take a loooooong look at the DCU and wonder how the fuck they are going to salvage this thing

They're going to have to replace the current people in charge. Two out of three of their biggest movies this year would have performed terrible.


I don't think Fantastic Beasts is going to perform as well as they think.

 

[BronsonLee]

I can understand BvS, that was so disappointing.

So far I have walked away from two DCEU films feeling like there was so much wasted potential. Iconic characters being wasted on middling films and a subpar director.

I loved 300, but the bloom's been off the rose with Snyder for me for a while.

And the V

You're in the film?!

There's no way that WB was targeting more than $250M domestic on this film prior to the past month or two (unless they are crazy), so despite the expectations roller coaster, the final domestic tally will still be solid. This isn't Green Lantern.

Pretty much. Critic stuff is whatever (I personally feel they're going a bit too hard in the paint on it to make an example like they did with BvS), but WB knows that people will go in on Harley/Deadshot and the Squad concept now.

 

[banktree]

so would that be a duology, trilogy, or quadrology? Or three seasons and a movie?

edit: wowowoh, people didn't like Hellboy 2? But..but... but..I... I don't understand. It was pretty much a perfect comic book movie, as far as I remember.
*looks up BO*
OH come on! Really? 160 on 85 mill?
Somebody need to teach Del Toro how to do marketing.

Someone needed to teach the studio not to release the week before The Dark Knight.

 

[Obliterator]

There's no way that WB was targeting more than $250M domestic on this film prior to the past month or two (unless they are crazy), so despite the expectations roller coaster, the final domestic tally will still be solid. This isn't Green Lantern.

No doubt I just wonder how much damage they are doing to the overall brand with this string of misfires. People are going to be more and more skeptical of them going forward if general audiences are not enjoying these films.

I don't think it's over, but if WW drops the ball in quality as well....man I'm not sure what a turn out for JL will be

 

[vinnygambini]

You're in the film?!

http://www.emilywrites.co.nz/i-saw-tarzan-and-this-is-my-review-after-some-wines/

 

[Nesotenso]

I am gonna catch a matinee tomorrow for suicide squad.

 

[Plasticine]

Do you know how fucking insane this would sound like 3 months ago

We all had Tarzan pegged as Bomba Extreme, but dem abs kept it goin

Monday morning WB will start holding meetings to figure out how to build a Tarzan Cinematic Universe to replace the DCEU.

 

[3N16MA]

There's no way that WB was targeting more than $250M domestic on this film prior to the past month or two (unless they are crazy), so despite the expectations roller coaster, the final domestic tally will still be solid. This isn't Green Lantern.

They will be kicking themselves at the potential for more after that opening day if the Saturday number holds.

They don't have a problem bringing people to the theater to see their films. These OD and OW numbers prove that people actually will spend money to watch DCEU films. However they're wasting this demand by sending out films that are being shit on.

 

[BronsonLee]

http://www.emilywrites.co.nz/i-saw-tarzan-and-this-is-my-review-after-some-wines/

The fuck

Monday morning WB will start holding meetings to figure out how to build a Tarzan Cinematic Universe to replace the DCEU.

Ayer Wins Again

 

[Escape Goat]

Poor Star Trek

Ugh.

I just saw it and thought it was crap. I think Im done with this Trek.

 

[ViewtifulJC]

There's no way that WB was targeting more than $250M domestic on this film prior to the past month or two (unless they are crazy), so despite the expectations roller coaster, the final domestic tally will still be solid. This isn't Green Lantern.

reminds me of Captain America 3 got hyped up for Age of Ultron numbers that weekend, then it only did Iron Man 3 numbers...even though the last CA did like $95m OW