Poltergust
Member
knowing*
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BREXIT MAFIA | Pro-Having Our Lynch And Pro-Eating It
- Thread starter cabot
- Start date
It was something he said prior (again, don't remember what. I'd have to go back and check) combined with insisting that gorlak was town.
I mean, it sounds weird, but nothing prevents the "you voted XXXX" line from being just a restatement of "you're aligned with town/scum", and cabot just not returning kk's flag upon Ouro being targeted because he's a miller and that's what should happen.
In the end I do think we're not doing much more than discussing flavor here because it's just a matter of deciding what we think Cabot would do. If this is going to be a problem we might as well lynch Ouro now I guess. But I'm pretty sure about Kalor being scum
In the end I do think we're not doing much more than discussing flavor here because it's just a matter of deciding what we think Cabot would do. If this is going to be a problem we might as well lynch Ouro now I guess. But I'm pretty sure about Kalor being scum
Poltergust
Member
I mean, it sounds weird, but nothing prevents the "you voted XXXX" line from being just a restatement of "you're aligned with town/scum", and cabot just not returning kk's flag upon Ouro being targeted because he's a miller and that's what should happen.
In the end I do think we're not doing much more than discussing flavor here because it's just a matter of deciding what we think Cabot would do. If this is going to be a problem we might as well lynch Ouro now I guess. But I'm pretty sure about Kalor being scum
However, kingkitty gave his flag to CCS who then kept it, despite being neutral. That's because he voted Remain.
So, I'm convinced that it's based on how someone voted, not with how they are aligned. Extrapolating from that, I don't think that a person's alignment is a necessary indicator of how they voted, and vice versa.
If you'll allow me to do some flavor talk here, maybe what separates town from scum is not how they voted, but what they want out of Brexit.
I mean, how else can we explain that CCS is neutral despite voting Remain? If there was a 1:1 correlation between votes and alignment, then he should've either been scum or have not cast a vote at all, but neither of those are true.
Ok, but if you're right that just pushes the idea that we should ignore flavor and focus on everything else, no? Either way this conversation is not of any practical use.
Poltergust
Member
How is it not? There is still the issue of Ouro's Miller claim vs. kingkitty's role.
This is why I want kingkitty to speak up and offer his thoughts on the matter.
I've been fairly neutral on Splinter throughout the game although I would probably be leaning more towards him being town. Nothing has stuck as being suspicous.
For people who I think are likely to be scum / the neutral partner:
Poltergust
Ouro (Not so much for scum but I keep thinking that he might be the neutral partner, even if that's unlikely)
Spoiled Milk
Why do you keep saying 5 scum
Poltergust
Member
5 scum? With there being 2 neutrals I can't imagine the scum count being above 3.
Also, kingkitty's role is basically a "vote cop". CCS's role was a role cop. The chances of there being a 3rd cop in this game (or at least a town-aligned one) for alignment is so low given these circumstances.
3 standard and the 2 Remain 'neutral' voters. Five total. Of course if we lynch the 3 standard and win you won't see me complaining.
CCS was a one shot, KK was a one correct shot. While unlikely, it is certainly possible.
When? He's made some good points today. More than anyone else I think.
And where are we now
Spoiled Milk
Banned
I've been really busy and can offer some reads tonight (PST). I want to read most of this thread again with fresh eyes and have everything in context.
Poltergust
Member
A possible Ouro lynch, perhaps?
Honestly, after we lynched CCS I was having trouble figuring out what we should do from there, but my deduction earlier has given me a clear way forward.
Even if you are not scum (which I find unlikely at this point), I really don't think this uncertainty looming over you, your role, and how voting works can be resolved until you get lynched. This contradiction needs an explanation.
What on earth is this?
Ouro's role stuff is an intriguing thing we should investigate, but Kalor/Splinter should be the one to go today.
Poltergust
Member
I know we're on a time limit here, but we can tackle both situations at once.
I'd prefer primarily going after Ouro, though, because there's only one choice there and we can gleam more info from Kalor and *Splinter going into tomorrow.
As much as I don't want to be lynched, this is some really bad reasoning. Ouro has very little to do with me/Kalor.
Poltergust
Member
I mean, we can only lynch one person a day. If we do have to focus on one thing only, I'd still prefer pursuing Ouro, but if you guys so wish I can yield that for now as long as we will revisit it later.
Got home from work and hooked up my brain to Gorlak's posts. I didn't just skim Gorlak's posts, I became Gorlak. From these skimmings, I tried to make a tally of the notable shades, minor or major, of all the people. I ignored shadings that I felt were meaningless. Or I missed a shading or two completely because I was busy eating chipotle.
Now my percentages could be completely wrong, and gave terrible reads. But maybe not? I give it a 50/50. Anyways,
Based on my download of Gorlak, these people might not be on the same team (60 percent):
Ouro -
Gorlak advocated for his miller death, and thought it was necessary to kill the miller at some point. Although Gorlak ultimately backed off from voting for Ouro, I think you have to understand WTF is with the thought process here if they're both scum. Knowing Gorlak has to do some risky move in Day 3 in order to survive, Ouro fake claims miller at the end of Day 1.
Now I'm not 100 percent sure, but if scum *couldn't* chat before the start of Day 1, there could be real miscommunication. Scum Ouro for some goddamn reason wanted to miller claim, and then only learned about Gorlak's terrible role during Night 1. However, if that was the case, wouldn't it be better to not plant the seed of doubt against the miller claim, including saying that we might have to revisit this issue later? Why make it harder for the team when Gorlak has to put his neck on the line the very next day phase?
Anyways, maybe not same team.
59 percent:
Flame_AC -
Just pure, consistent shade from Gorlak, and of course choosing to battle him in Day 3's thunderdome. Maybe too consistent.
The bold vibe inside me won't ignore the possibility that this was all part of the plan. The scumbros knew Day 3 was gonna be shit, but in order to spin this into a better possibility, they decided to pit another scumbro against Gorlak. Whoever dies, the other will automatically get cleared by town. Of course Flame_AC could actually be scum with a useful ability, which would be a real waste. And of course this means scum is willing to take a 100 percent chance of sacrificing one of their own on Day 3, instead of a 50/50 chance.
But maybe that's too bold. For now I'll stick with the less fun rationale that Flame_AC and Gorlak are not on the same team.
53 percent:
Spoiled Milk - I feel ok putting him at a stable 53 percent.
51.5 percent:
Poltergust - Gorlak gave him a scum read on Day 2, along with flame_ac. If flame_ac actually was scum, then I might peg Poltergust at around 77 percent chance of not being the same team as scum. If Poltergust flipped scum, I'd put flame_ac at around 86 percent chance. I don't think scumGorlak would put two other scummates (and only those two) as his top two scum.
Zeemumu - On Day 1 according to Gorlak's reads, zeemumu was only second to flame_ac in terms of scummy. So same percentage deal as Poltergust in terms of zeemumu or flame_ac possibly flipping scum.
50.12 percent:
Kawl and Fireblend - idk I think there was enough shading by Gorlak to give me pause. Both of them were put down as an "uneasy" by Gorlak on Day 2, which I think is interesting if they were both scum. I can't imagine scum being more than 3-4 tops. For a fake read list, wouldn't it be better to spread the reads of your scummates? Not put at least a majority of your squad in the not-so-charitable "uneasy" read? I dunno, maybe that's just me. But my vibes tell me if Kawl flips scum, Fireblend isn't on the same team, and vice versa.
Among people who I don't think got enough of a bruising shade, I'm fine with Kalor dying today. But I won't vote for him until later in the day phase in order to avoid turbo and Ouro hitting everyone with a bagel gun.
Now my percentages could be completely wrong, and gave terrible reads. But maybe not? I give it a 50/50. Anyways,
Based on my download of Gorlak, these people might not be on the same team (60 percent):
Ouro -
Gorlak advocated for his miller death, and thought it was necessary to kill the miller at some point. Although Gorlak ultimately backed off from voting for Ouro, I think you have to understand WTF is with the thought process here if they're both scum. Knowing Gorlak has to do some risky move in Day 3 in order to survive, Ouro fake claims miller at the end of Day 1.
Now I'm not 100 percent sure, but if scum *couldn't* chat before the start of Day 1, there could be real miscommunication. Scum Ouro for some goddamn reason wanted to miller claim, and then only learned about Gorlak's terrible role during Night 1. However, if that was the case, wouldn't it be better to not plant the seed of doubt against the miller claim, including saying that we might have to revisit this issue later? Why make it harder for the team when Gorlak has to put his neck on the line the very next day phase?
Anyways, maybe not same team.
59 percent:
Flame_AC -
Just pure, consistent shade from Gorlak, and of course choosing to battle him in Day 3's thunderdome. Maybe too consistent.
The bold vibe inside me won't ignore the possibility that this was all part of the plan. The scumbros knew Day 3 was gonna be shit, but in order to spin this into a better possibility, they decided to pit another scumbro against Gorlak. Whoever dies, the other will automatically get cleared by town. Of course Flame_AC could actually be scum with a useful ability, which would be a real waste. And of course this means scum is willing to take a 100 percent chance of sacrificing one of their own on Day 3, instead of a 50/50 chance.
But maybe that's too bold. For now I'll stick with the less fun rationale that Flame_AC and Gorlak are not on the same team.
53 percent:
Spoiled Milk - I feel ok putting him at a stable 53 percent.
51.5 percent:
Poltergust - Gorlak gave him a scum read on Day 2, along with flame_ac. If flame_ac actually was scum, then I might peg Poltergust at around 77 percent chance of not being the same team as scum. If Poltergust flipped scum, I'd put flame_ac at around 86 percent chance. I don't think scumGorlak would put two other scummates (and only those two) as his top two scum.
Zeemumu - On Day 1 according to Gorlak's reads, zeemumu was only second to flame_ac in terms of scummy. So same percentage deal as Poltergust in terms of zeemumu or flame_ac possibly flipping scum.
50.12 percent:
Kawl and Fireblend - idk I think there was enough shading by Gorlak to give me pause. Both of them were put down as an "uneasy" by Gorlak on Day 2, which I think is interesting if they were both scum. I can't imagine scum being more than 3-4 tops. For a fake read list, wouldn't it be better to spread the reads of your scummates? Not put at least a majority of your squad in the not-so-charitable "uneasy" read? I dunno, maybe that's just me. But my vibes tell me if Kawl flips scum, Fireblend isn't on the same team, and vice versa.
Among people who I don't think got enough of a bruising shade, I'm fine with Kalor dying today. But I won't vote for him until later in the day phase in order to avoid turbo and Ouro hitting everyone with a bagel gun.
On this whole flavor issue
I would totally be down to instantly destroying Ouro in a pool of lava if this was still Day 2, but it's Day 5 and I'm a little more hesitant just because I can't give much confidence that Ouro and Gorlak are on the same scum team. So that's a bummer.
I'll have to think over this mechanics issue though. I'm going to drink some diet coke.
I would totally be down to instantly destroying Ouro in a pool of lava if this was still Day 2, but it's Day 5 and I'm a little more hesitant just because I can't give much confidence that Ouro and Gorlak are on the same scum team. So that's a bummer.
I'll have to think over this mechanics issue though. I'm going to drink some diet coke.
you were always my favorite feline royalty
Poltergust
Member
Er... why?
Ok, finally back home.
kingkitty's post reminded me that scum doesn't have day chat, which...I'm not used to in Gafia and completely forgot about. So I went back and looked at D1 and Gorlak's interactions (with currently alive people):
Mentioned/Talked to Gorlak:
Fireblend
Ourobolus
Splinter
kingkitty
Poltergust
Gorlak's posts:
Ourobolus - questioned him after mentioned by Ouro
Fireblend - questioned him after mentioned by Fire
Kalor - mentioned
Flame_AC - mentioned, responded to, voted for
Poltergust - mentioned
Spoiled Milk - mentioned
Splinter - unprompted questions, actual discussion
Kawl - mentioned
zeemumu - mentioned
Of all of these, Gorlak interacted with *Splinter the most - they actually had a discussion before Gorlak disappeared.
kingkitty's post reminded me that scum doesn't have day chat, which...I'm not used to in Gafia and completely forgot about. So I went back and looked at D1 and Gorlak's interactions (with currently alive people):
Mentioned/Talked to Gorlak:
Fireblend
Ourobolus
Splinter
kingkitty
Poltergust
Gorlak's posts:
Ourobolus - questioned him after mentioned by Ouro
Fireblend - questioned him after mentioned by Fire
Kalor - mentioned
Flame_AC - mentioned, responded to, voted for
Poltergust - mentioned
Spoiled Milk - mentioned
Splinter - unprompted questions, actual discussion
Kawl - mentioned
zeemumu - mentioned
Of all of these, Gorlak interacted with *Splinter the most - they actually had a discussion before Gorlak disappeared.
Here we are in the prime of the thunderdome, in all likelihood a bunch of the game can be figured out from the last 24 hours of that day. I tried all day to make my case but admittedly, I was in a horrible position. This was one of Poltergust's posts, where they can find no good reason to vote for me in place of Gorlak. Fastforward something like 12 hours, Gorlak makes one post apologizing and then the next post admits to lying about being a vanilla townie. Here's Gorlak's post (edited to important bits) for reference:
Wow. How does this convince Poltergust that Gorlak is not the correct lynch for the day? Gorlak's last sentence plays up town believing CCS' information but then also that reinforces why Gorlak should be lynched. CCS, scum though they might be, was attempting to buy credibility with town by handing us all a member of the scum team. CCS had previously talked about how they have the entire role PM, so at this point Gorlak knew that his jig was up if CCS decided to give up a little bit more of Gorlak's info. Gorlak naturally threw some shade at CCS by questioning their motives in revealing him.
Poltergust is all aboard the Gorlak train of thought and quickly changes their vote to me, funny how a good reason to lynch me magically appeared. Poltergust knew that regardless of the way the thunderdome went, CCS was going to die next due to the red flag from KK. Also of note is that Poltergust is attempting to minimize the importance of determining exactly what Gorlak's role is. I feel like Poltergust is just wanting to hope that I get lynched, y'all move onto CCS the next day and hopefully by then the heat on Gorlak has died down. Out of all the people that went and switched their vote to me, Poltergust and Kalor are the most blatant attempts at saving Gorlak. At this point Poltergust is trying to swing the vote around to me as we approach the day end, along with backslashbunny (total townie though). As others have talked about, scum was likely very confident that I would be the one lynched until the bitter end. The real red flag for me in all this is the unwillingness to go somewhere unexpected or otherwise unique in their scum hunting. We can see in the bolded that Poltergust is just making some general statement about their being lost, but instead I see it as not really wanting to volunteer a thought about the situation that might shine negatively on Gorlak.
I remember something I learned in an earlier game, a safe conversation is a somewhat useless conversation that looks important. Speculating on the death of Zipped, while potentially interesting, is just a ruse for Poltergust to stay part of the conversation. (In all likelihood scum was shooting for PR's or just trying to sow chaos by picking a suspicious candidate).
Here we are again "Now what?". Poltergust didn't want to volunteer anything or potentially steer the conversation even though we have plenty of stuff to go on now.
And perhaps the worst part and the post that gave me the bad vibes about Poltergust. We're like 5 days in now and the best list we can muster includes zeemumu and Spoiled Milk? As I talked about in my list zeemumu and Spoiled milk are just coasting players. Spoiled Milk was one of the Day 1 contenders (alongside me), and putting them on a scum list at this point seems to be just an easy pick to fill in a list. Zeemumu is just a pick a couple of other people have made in order to blend in with everyone else's thoughts.
I don't believe the bolded for a second. In a vote where it was looking to be me until the last minute or so, no way all of scum decided to just vote their teammate and put them in vote contention, they would have been better off doing nothing than trying to inflate their teammate's vote count. Gorlak didn't even need to be a bus for the day to work out for them, if Gorlak claimed a neutral party with ability to thunderdome from the beginning I would be dead and Gorlak would almost certainly still be alive.
The CCS turbo day was a complete waste to get any real information from. It lasted 3 hours! Reading into people's inaction/action that day was pointless. Once CCS floated the threat of revealing the town doctor the easiest play for any scum/neutral member to make is to turbo CCS under the guise of protecting the doctor. In all honesty the doctor, who did great by the way, is unlikely to really pose too much more of a threat to them. It's unlikely the doctor would strike successfully more than once and a smart scum team will pick targets who won't be targeted.
Also, out of Ouro/Kalor/Splinter I'd pick Kalor in a heartbeat, but your posts have led me to go for you instead. I'll still take a Kalor lynch today, but I think you're a better choice and we'll get a whole bunch from your lynch.
Vote: Poltergust
YesNOnoNOYes
Member
DAY 5 CURRENT VOTE TALLY:
Kalor (2)
Fireblend 1315
Flame_AC 1321 1479
Kawl_USC 1371
Poltergust (2)
Ourobolus 1424
Flame_AC 1479
Ourobolus (1)
Poltergust 1414
Kawl_USC (0):Ourobolus 1309 1424
No active vote for Day 5: *Splinter, backslashbunny, Kalor, kingkitty, Spoiled Milk, zeemumu
Day 5 Postcount: *Splinter 16, backslashbunny 15, Fireblend 21, Flame_AC 14, Kalor 3, Kawl_USC 11, kingkitty 7, Ourobolus 53, Poltergust 40, Spoiled Milk 2, zeemumu 4
Day 5 ends:
Automated vote tally here
6 votes for majority
Kalor (2)
Fireblend 1315
Kawl_USC 1371
Poltergust (2)
Ourobolus 1424
Flame_AC 1479
Ourobolus (1)
Poltergust 1414
Kawl_USC (0):
No active vote for Day 5: *Splinter, backslashbunny, Kalor, kingkitty, Spoiled Milk, zeemumu
Day 5 Postcount: *Splinter 16, backslashbunny 15, Fireblend 21, Flame_AC 14, Kalor 3, Kawl_USC 11, kingkitty 7, Ourobolus 53, Poltergust 40, Spoiled Milk 2, zeemumu 4
Day 5 ends:
Automated vote tally here
6 votes for majority
Poltergust
Member
Flame_AC, my reasoning for voting you over Gorlak was based on the premise that neither of you guys were scum. Like, I was so certain that scum was not involved during that day that Gorlak's reveal completely took me by surprise. Outside of a passing thought, I never considered that Gorlak actually was scum (instead of neutral or town) because I didn't think they would have any reason to expose themselves like that.
This was also the reason why I brought up the idea of trying a No Lynch vote that day. I figured that if Gorlak was a neutral Thunderdomer then a No Lynch would still result in him dying while also protecting against a possible town vs. town situation.
It was, unfortunately, faulty reasoning on my part because the fact that the Gorlak only had three days to set up a Thunderdome completely flew over my head. With the piece of extra information, the possibility of Gorlak being scum shot up, but I didn't catch onto that until the next day.
This was also the reason why I brought up the idea of trying a No Lynch vote that day. I figured that if Gorlak was a neutral Thunderdomer then a No Lynch would still result in him dying while also protecting against a possible town vs. town situation.
It was, unfortunately, faulty reasoning on my part because the fact that the Gorlak only had three days to set up a Thunderdome completely flew over my head. With the piece of extra information, the possibility of Gorlak being scum shot up, but I didn't catch onto that until the next day.
There was one post from Polter that really stood out to me yesterday:
The CCS vote was such a done deal, so it's weird that he attached his vote to my argument, and even worse that his post doesn't even really follow on from mine. He's just agreeing for the sake it? I got a really bad feeling from this post.
On the other hand, I thought it was interesting how Kawl overreacted after Polter applied the lightest of pressure today:
I at least feel they aren't BOTH scum.
If there weren't any neutrals I'd agree that 4 is probably correct, but with there being 2 of them that can swing either way, I'm more inclined to think 3. Once we lynch 3 of them we'll see what happens!
Can you walk me through why you don't think both kalor and polter could be scum?
Those two remain my top scum reads, so I'm not upset with how this day is preceding.
I'll admit that side of the equation is the hardest part to define, but Polter's been all over the place and Kalor is barely existing, it's hard for me to imagine they're on the same team. In general the last two scum I think are within those four, it's just the way I broke them out makes the most sense in my head.
Spoiled Milk
Banned
Why aren't people voting for me? I'm clearly being avoidant and making promises I don't keep.
(Reads tonight, I had stuff to do.)
(Reads tonight, I had stuff to do.)
YesNOnoNOYes
Member
(HAPPY BIRTHDAY BUNNY!!!!! 🎂🎉🎊🎈🎆🎇💖❤💓💝
Happy Birthday!
Cause inactive town/nullish isn't as much value of a lynch compared to someone else.
I've been going back and forth on claiming. Based on previous comments I know people will be skeptical of it but at this point I may as well get it off my chest.
I'm Jeremy Hunt, vanilla cop. So I am able to investigate players and find out if they are ordinary town or not. Scum appear as vanilla so it's more a tool of verifying some people's claims. At this stage of the game I don't think that it is particularly useful hence why I'm okay with claiming. I won't say my targets for now as I don't want to out people unnecessarily. If you want to verify this and lynch me, go ahead. I'd prefer not to be lynched obviously but in a game where we have a cop that checks votes and a neutral 1-shot cop, I could see why someone might see this role as unlikely.
I'm Jeremy Hunt, vanilla cop. So I am able to investigate players and find out if they are ordinary town or not. Scum appear as vanilla so it's more a tool of verifying some people's claims. At this stage of the game I don't think that it is particularly useful hence why I'm okay with claiming. I won't say my targets for now as I don't want to out people unnecessarily. If you want to verify this and lynch me, go ahead. I'd prefer not to be lynched obviously but in a game where we have a cop that checks votes and a neutral 1-shot cop, I could see why someone might see this role as unlikely.
Spoiled Milk
Banned
Vote: Kalor
Poltergust
Member
Kalor, you should've mentioned this earlier before I went on that spiel about Ouro's Miller claim.
If Kalor is telling the truth, then the contradiction is resolved. Ouro would show up as a vanilla townie. That said, I still find it hard to believe there are three cop roles in this game.
If Kalor is telling the truth, then the contradiction is resolved. Ouro would show up as a vanilla townie. That said, I still find it hard to believe there are three cop roles in this game.
How does my role have anything to do with a Vanilla Cop
is this real life
Poltergust
Member
Because Kalor said that in addition to confirming a vanilla role, it will also return vanilla for scum. This means that alignment actually affects what Kalor gets back when he checks on someone.
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