Support NeoGAF

[Fireblend]

That's a good analysis Flame. I do agree that Splinter is also a good candidate (which is why he's last in my neutral reads).

Of course, Ouro isn't in the discussion above, but their actions speak for themself...

Are you implying something positive or something negative for Ouro here? Because I absolutely can't read him

 

[Fireblend]

Zeemumu, since you're here. Do you think the other neutral should come forward?

 

[zeemumu]

I think they should since they habe nothing left to lose but if I was neutral I'd stay hidden out of spite because I have nothing left to lose.

 

[Flame_AC]

That's a good analysis Flame. I do agree that Splinter is also a good candidate (which is why he's last in my neutral reads).



Are you implying something positive or something negative for Ouro here? Because I absolutely can't read him

More positive than neutral, but not by that much. If we can get the neutral to come forward for a joint win, then we can run the numbers game and see how many days we have left and how many right/wrong choices we can make.

 

[Fireblend]

I think they should since they habe nothing left to lose but if I was neutral I'd stay hidden out of spite because I have nothing left to lose.

Why out of spite? And they do have something to lose: the game.

If they stay hidden there's a chance they'll be mislynched by town, or targeted for a night kill by scum.

If they out themselves that won't happen because town doesn't want to waste time lynching neutrals, and scum don't want to waste time killing them either.

 

[Ourobolus]

More positive than neutral, but not by that much. If we can get the neutral to come forward for a joint win, then we can run the numbers game and see how many days we have left and how many right/wrong choices we can make.

Well there's 9 players left. If we're assuming 1 scum left, then we have

7 Town
1 Neutral
1 Scum

Neutral doesn't care who wins.

Town mislynches and scum doesn't NK the neutral:
D6 - 7-1-1
D7 - 5-1-1
D8 - 3-1-1
D9 - 1-1-1 (and then it's basically down to whomever the neutral sides with)

 

[zeemumu]

Why out of spite? And they do have something to lose: the game.

If they stay hidden there's a chance they'll be mislynched by town, or targeted for a night kill by scum.

If they out themselves that won't happen because town doesn't want to waste time lynching neutrals, and scum don't want to waste time killing them either.

Well you did lynch their partner

 

[Fireblend]

Well you did lynch their partner

Because of a shitty play. CCS can still win the game if the other neutral survives, it's a faction win not a personal one. And the best way to do that is by coming forward.

 

[Ourobolus]

Well you did lynch their partner

Right but now that we know their win condition, them claiming should be fine. Worst case there is a counterclaim, but scum would be pretty dumb to do that (and town has literally no reason to do it) since they would be lynched either today or tomorrow.

 

[Poltergust]

Thoughts on zeemumu, Polter?

I don't really know, but I do find it interesting how Kalor named him as one of his checks. It could've been a lie, of course, but we can still try to extrapolate something out of that. Would Kalor name one of the members of the scum team to make them look better to town?

Personally, based on how scum has played so far, I don't think that's what actually happened, but the possibility is there.

 

[zeemumu]

Because of a shitty play. CCS can still win the game if the other neutral survives, it's a faction win not a personal one. And the best way to do that is by coming forward.

There's a better strategy that benefits everyone and until they decide to reveal themselves I'm gonna assume they figured it out

 

[Flame_AC]

Well there's 9 players left. If we're assuming 1 scum left, then we have

7 Town
1 Neutral
1 Scum

Neutral doesn't care who wins.

Town mislynches and scum doesn't NK the neutral:
D6 - 7-1-1
D7 - 5-1-1
D8 - 3-1-1
D9 - 1-1-1 (and then it's basically down to whomever the neutral sides with)

3 Days isn't the worst thing in the world.

If 2 scum somehow:

D6: 6-1-2
D7: 4-1-2
D8: 2-1-2

Do y'all think the neutral might auto-side with scum based on the wording of the scum win condition?

"You win if your team equal or outnumber all players." Remain could be considered a team?

 

[Fireblend]

I don't really know, but I do find it interesting how Kalor named him as one of his checks. It could've been a lie, of course, but we can still try to extrapolate something out of that. Would Kalor name one of the members of the scum team to make them look better to town?

Personally, based on how scum has played so far, I don't think that's what actually happened, but the possibility is there.

Why if he was gonna flip scum? I still think those "checks" should be disregarded entirely. Zeemumu already feels scummy enough to me without taking whatever 8D-chess Kalor might have been playing into account.

 

[zeemumu]

I don't really know, but I do find it interesting how Kalor named him as one of his checks. It could've been a lie, of course, but we can still try to extrapolate something out of that. Would Kalor name one of the members of the scum team to make them look better to town?

Personally, based on how scum has played so far, I don't think that's what actually happened, but the possibility is there.

Hah! I told you, fireblend

 

[Ourobolus]

3 Days isn't the worst thing in the world.

If 2 scum somehow:

D6: 6-1-2
D7: 4-1-2
D8: 2-1-2

Do y'all think the neutral might auto-side with scum based on the wording of the scum win condition?

"You win if your team equal or outnumber all players." Remain could be considered a team?

That's pretty standard language for a scum wincon.

CCS's wincon is "You win if you or your partner survives until the end of the game." They don't care who the victor is, but with scum being 2 down already, town is closer to winning than scum is, so it would behoove them to side with town at the moment.

 

[Poltergust]

Why out of spite? And they do have something to lose: the game.

If they stay hidden there's a chance they'll be mislynched by town, or targeted for a night kill by scum.

If they out themselves that won't happen because town doesn't want to waste time lynching neutrals, and scum don't want to waste time killing them either.

Why wouldn't scum kill the neutral if they have powers that can help town? According to the win condition shown in the scum posts we've seen, the win condition for them is to get to half the total vote, not to outnumber/match the number of townspeople.

That said, I would still implore the neutral to help us.

 

[Fireblend]

There's a better strategy that benefits everyone and until they decide to reveal themselves I'm gonna assume they figured it out

I literally don't see any reason why a town aligned player wouldn't share this "better strategy" at this time.

 

[Flame_AC]

I literally don't see any reason why a town aligned player wouldn't share this "better strategy" at this time.

Agreed, I thought it sounded weird, just wanted to see if someone else noticed too.

What is this better strategy?

 

[Fireblend]

Why wouldn't scum kill the neutral if they have powers that can help town? According to the win condition shown in the scum posts we've seen, the win condition for them is to get to half the total vote, not to outnumber/match the number of townspeople.

That said, I would still implore the neutral to help us.

Because neutral can win with them. They'd much rather kill a town player whose only wincon is lynching all of them than a neutral that doesn't really care as long as they survive

 

[zeemumu]

I literally don't see any reason why a town aligned player wouldn't share this "better strategy" at this time.

Because it relies on others not knowing what it is unless they want to die and take a scum with them

 

[Poltergust]

Why if he was gonna flip scum? I still think those "checks" should be disregarded entirely. Zeemumu already feels scummy enough to me without taking whatever 8D-chess Kalor might have been playing into account.

I mean, I'm all for trying to determine a scum player's motives for saying certain things. I guess you don't think that's a good strategy in this instance, though.

 

[Ourobolus]

Because it relies on others not knowing what it is unless they want to die and take a scum with them

...what

 

[Fireblend]

I mean, I'm all for trying to determine a scum player's motives for saying certain things. I guess you don't think that's a good strategy in this instance, though.

I mean, be my guest, but I really don't think there's anything there. You and even zeemumu seem to disagree, so have at it

 

[Flame_AC]

Because it relies on others not knowing what it is unless they want to die and take a scum with them

What are you getting at?

 

[*Splinter]

Why zeemumu over Polter? Zee is just kinda...here, but Polter went balls-to-the-wall trying to link Kalor and me together yesterday for like, no reason whatsoever

Spoiler

other than that as a claimed miller they won't NK me so I need to be lynched

Exactly.

Until Polter tried to link you and Kalor so strongly, he at least looked (to me) like someone trying to figure out the game. Whereas Zee has been coasting in the background, only really piping up when he starts getting mentions. Even when I asked him for a clarification on something yesterday I got a vague/evasive responsive, as if even he wasn't sure why he had posted it.

To be fair though, Polter trying to chain lynch you off of Kalor before he even flipped was scummy as fuck, so like I said I have no problem lynching him first.

Right now this just feels a bit easy, so maybe I'm just second guessing myself...

I don't really know, but I do find it interesting how Kalor named him as one of his checks. It could've been a lie, of course, but we can still try to extrapolate something out of that. Would Kalor name one of the members of the scum team to make them look better to town?

Personally, based on how scum has played so far, I don't think that's what actually happened, but the possibility is there.

Actually this is an interesting point. Kalor claimed as close to his real role as he could because it's safer. It's not unlikely that he also claimed his real targets in case he had been tracked on any night. So... slightly less chance that Zeemumu is scum, but I'm not going to take that too seriously because blah blah WIFOM.

 

[zeemumu]

What are you getting at?

Well as an alternative, the neutral can claim town and let a scum claim neutral, forcing the scum to work around killing the other neutral to avoid outing their inside man. Provided they don't accidentally kill the neutral it works out a lot better for the neutral, especially if they make it to final 3.

 

[Ourobolus]

Exactly. Whereas Zee has been coasting in the background, only really piping up when he starts getting mentions.

This is basically Kawl, too.

 

[Ourobolus]

Well as an alternative, the neutral can claim town and let a scum claim neutral, forcing the scum to work around killing the other neutral to avoid outing their inside man. Provided they don't accidentally kill the neutral it works out a lot better for the neutral, especially if they make it to final 3.

This makes literally no sense. They don't need to survive until D9 or whatever, they just need to make it to the end. If there's 1 scum left and we lynch them today, then surprise, the neutral wins today!

 

[Fireblend]

lol Splinter you have all the ammo you need to nail Zeemumu in this page and here you are talking about how he's been vague and evasive in prior days.

Well as an alternative, the neutral can claim town and let a scum claim neutral, forcing the scum to work around killing the other neutral to avoid outing their inside man. Provided they don't accidentally kill the neutral it works out a lot better for the neutral, especially if they make it to final 3.

This is the most convoluted plan ever. How is it a better strategy than securing their survival by just coming forward. This is the sort of plan that scum comes up with when they're against the wall and about to lose.

 

[zeemumu]

Sure they could just claim neutral outright, but that doesn't slow down the scum to make them more careful and there's no possible safety. The benefits are small but there are more

 

[*Splinter]

Why wouldn't scum kill the neutral if they have powers that can help town? According to the win condition shown in the scum posts we've seen, the win condition for them is to get to half the total vote, not to outnumber/match the number of townspeople.

That said, I would still implore the neutral to help us.

From scum's POV, having the neutral alive brings lylo forward by half a day (since the neutral will vote with scum on the final day). They need to kill town to end the game as soon as possible, and it's unlikely the neutral's power is THAT dangerous to scum (especially as there are still unclaimed Townies running around which are more likely to be a threat).

From town's POV, we push lylo back half a day by lynching a neutral, but at the same time we waste a full day on the lynch, so it's a net loss.

So it's in both team's interests to leave the neutral alive, weird as that sounds.

 

[Fireblend]

Sure they could just claim neutral outright, but that doesn't slow down the scum to make them more careful and there's no possible safety. The benefits are small but there are more

...what?

 

[zeemumu]

...what?

I'm assuming they don't know who it is either

 

[Ourobolus]

Sure they could just claim neutral outright, but that doesn't slow down the scum to make them more careful and there's no possible safety. The benefits are small but there are more

What? There are literally no downsides to claiming. Town AND Scum don't have an interest in killing the neutral.

Let's do the math.

Claiming: 0% chance they get killed
Keeps quiet: Nonzero chance they get killed

gee i wonder

 

[*Splinter]

This is basically Kawl, too.

True. I don't know why I haven't been considering him as much. I guess I feel like Zeemumu (and Milk!) have been less contributive when they do post, whereas Kawl just doesn't post enough (and activity is still a shit indicator of alignment).

lol Splinter you have all the ammo you need to nail Zeemumu in this page and here you are talking about how he's been vague and evasive in prior days.

Eh disagree. These theories are wrong but not scummy.

 

[Fireblend]

Are you trying to say you're neutral or something from all this and that's why you have this elaborate plan?

Otherwise ionno.

They could also be scum not so subtly telegraphing their "plan" to bring the neutral to their side, which would be a pretty terrible plan, but yes, you're not missing anything, he's talking nonsense.

 

[zeemumu]

Are you trying to say you're neutral or something from all this and that's why you have this elaborate plan?

Otherwise ionno.

Nah, that's actually too convoluted, even for me

 

[Poltergust]

Sure they could just claim neutral outright, but that doesn't slow down the scum to make them more careful and there's no possible safety. The benefits are small but there are more

Careful how? I wouldn't see the point of claiming neutral if they didn't have anything that could help town.

Helping town = Being more likely to lynch scum = Game ends

 

[Ourobolus]

Milk and Kawl are the only two that haven't checked in, right

 

[Fireblend]

I guess a town could claim neutral in hopes of staying safe til the end. Not as good though because if it's 1:1 town to scum, scum wins

What? No, this makes no sense. Town has no reason to claim anything other than town right now. We find scum and we lynch them, we win. No need for crazy gambits at this time - staying alive isn't winning.

 

[*Splinter]

The only other thing I can think of is neutral aligning with town, waiting for a scum to claim to ensure one scum is safe, and then going NO I'M NEUTRAL YOU'RE OBVS SCUM and then lynching the scum, but that would require us to actually believe the second guy and I don't know it sounds complicated.

I guess a town could claim neutral in hopes of staying safe til the end. Not as good though because if it's 1:1 town to scum, scum wins.

This whole convo isn't really that productive though, tbh.

If town claims neutral the real neutral would likely counterclaim, leading to two mislynches in a row and massively increasing the chances of a scum win.

The convo might be productive if it encourages the neutral to claim, although I agree that shouldn't be our priority right now.

 

[zeemumu]

I forgot kawl existed

 

[*Splinter]

I forgot kawl existed

Happens to the best of us

 

[zeemumu]

Fire can you explain to me one more time why you suspect me?

 

[Fireblend]

I think Splinter's reasoning is on point; you've been coasting and non-committal for the entire duration of the game so far. Scum usually doesn't want to talk much or provide new ideas or commit to something because if they flip that can compromise their teammates or help town in other ways, so it's usual for at least some scum members to stay on the sidelines to avoid providing information that can later be contradicted.

And I do think your weird defense of the neutral not coming forward is indicative or something, at the very least not understanding their win conditions very well, but worst case scenario you *are* scum trying to signal the neutral not to do something that benefits them and town and gets town closer to a win.

 

[zeemumu]

I think Splinter's reasoning is on point; you've been coasting and non-committal for the entire duration of the game so far. Scum usually doesn't want to talk much or provide new ideas or commit to something because if they flip that can compromise their teammates or help town in other ways, so it's usual for at least some scum members to stay on the sidelines to avoid providing information that can later be contradicted.

And I do think your weird defense of the neutral not coming forward is indicative or something, at the very least not understanding their win conditions very well, but worst case scenario you *are* scum trying to signal the neutral not to do something that benefits them and town and gets town closer to a win.

Both of those sound like terrible scum tact though

 

[Flame_AC]

Both of those sound like terrible scum tact though

That's what makes them think you're scummy.

I have a great(?) idea. Mass roleclaim, force the neutral out and make the last of the scum team burn whatever roleclaim they have and see if it stands up to a bit of scrutiny.

 

[Fireblend]

Both of those sound like terrible scum tact though

For what it's worth both things are pretty bad play if you are town too IMO

Who're you voting for today? Agree with Flame's post?

 

[Ourobolus]

That's what makes them think you're scummy.

I have a great(?) idea. Mass roleclaim, force the neutral out and make the last of the scum team burn whatever roleclaim they have and see if it stands up to a bit of scrutiny.

ok i'll go first

 

[zeemumu]

For what it's worth both things are pretty bad play if you are town too IMO

Who're you voting for today? Agree with Flame's post?

They do tell me a lot based on responses, though.


Probably milk or splinter. They were my original suspicions. Moreso milk