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Canada Poligaf - The Wrath of Harperland

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E

elty

Member
Wynne tried too hard, and it sounds very unconvincing.

Hudak is probably the best performer, but he just look like those selling pyramid scheme/preaching cult.

Horwath is irrelevant.

Again, Liberal deserved to be cleansed so all of their bad blood can be washed away - while PC should just get rid of Tim Hudek and their extremism. Sounds like mission impossible.

But hey, there is E3, Ontario Election AND World Cup next week!!!
 
F

Fuzzy

I would bang a hot farmer!
A co-worker told me a funny story that happened this weekend. He was talking with his local PC candidate east of Toronto and the topic of Hudak's likability came up. He told me that the candidate went off on how he felt about Hudak before my co-worker even had a chance to say anything. He said what we all already know, the Ontario PC party will be a lot better off once he's replaced. He said it was funny about how upfront the candidate was with his dislike for him. :lol
 
Y

You Are Viewtiful

Member
TV Ontario post-debate panel agrees Hudak>=Horwath>

It seems if you are a left-winger you'll say Horwath wins, if you're right winger you'll say Hudak wins, if you're a Liberal you'll pile on people for saying like it is lol
 
E

equippedwithtowel

Member
You Are Viewtiful said:
TV Ontario post-debate panel agrees Hudak>=Horwath>

It seems if you are a left-winger you'll say Horwath wins, if you're right winger you'll say Hudak wins, if you're a Liberal you'll pile on people for saying like it is lol
Click to expand...

Anyone who though Horvath won after that closing statement is deep in the bubble. The ONDP platform could fit on a napkin.
 
Y

You Are Viewtiful

Member
Uploaded http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toron...lant-scandal-jobs-take-centre-stage-1.2663757

equippedwithtowel said:
Anyone who though Horvath won after that closing statement is deep in the bubble. The ONDP platform could fit on a napkin.
Click to expand...

Heh, personally me and my family stopped listening after Hudak started talking about hopes and dreams. What did she say? I didn't hear anyone mention it in the post-debate panel.

edit: my preferred news source (Globe & Mail) which is usually anti-NDP says Wynne performance was poor, Hudak and Horwath good.. Let's set aside win and lose, what angle are people in here coming from where Wynne comes out of this debate convincing people to vote for her? Even in the "extended soapbox" view, Wynne spent most the time apologizing or fact checking the other two, she did not lay out her vision for the province.
 
E

equippedwithtowel

Member
You Are Viewtiful said:
Uploaded http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toron...lant-scandal-jobs-take-centre-stage-1.2663757



Heh, personally me and my family stopped listening after Hudak started talking about hopes and dreams. What did she say? I didn't hear anyone mention it in the post-debate panel.

edit: my preferred news source (Globe & Mail) which is usually anti-NDP says Wynne performance was poor, Hudak and Horwath good.. Let's set aside win and lose, what angle are people in here coming from where Wynne comes out of this debate convincing people to vote for her? Even in the "extended soapbox" view, Wynne spent most the time apologizing or fact checking the other two, she did not lay out her vision for the province.
Click to expand...

She fumbled transit and her closing statment, I'm woking off the second half. Wynne's vision was acceptably clear, and I'm not picking a best joint presser.
 
Y

You Are Viewtiful

Member
equippedwithtowel said:
She fumbled transit and her closing statment, I'm woking off the second half. Wynne's vision was acceptably clear, and I'm not picking a best joint presser.
Click to expand...

I don't recall there being a transit question. There was a question about how to make driving in rural Ontario more affordable and confirming that rural money won't go to Toronto. Horawth said she would cut 15% in autoinsurance and she won't take $4 billion bus replacement programme meant for rural Ontario and put it in the Torontonian Eglinton LRT (which Wynne did). Where was the fumble?
 
Y

You Are Viewtiful

Member
Interesting Ipsos flash poll on the debate

http://www.ipsos-na.com/news-polls/pressrelease.aspx?id=6523#.U46h_gNDvkk.twitter

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Who did you think will "win"

32% Wynne, 24% Hudak, 17% Horwath

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Who "won" the debate?

36% Hudak, 27% Wynne, 26% Horwath

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Impressions

Horwath - 54% improved impression, 15% worse impression (net score +39)
Hudak - 40% improved impression, 34% worse impression (net score +6)
Wynne - 24% improved impression, 43% worse impression (net score -19)

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Style and substance

  • Four in ten (36%, +6) believe that Tim Hudak offered the best ideas and policies in the debate, while Horwath (31%, +7) is in second position and Wynne trails (28%, -3) in third. Four percent (4%, -11) don’t know.
  • Four in ten (37%, + 9) believe that Tim Hudak sounded and acted the most like a Premier, tied with Kathleen Wynne (37%, -5) but well ahead of Andrea Horwath (22%, +4). Four percent (5%, -6) don’t know.
  • Andrea Horwath (43%, +4) came across as most likeable, while Wynne (26%, -2) and Hudak (25%, +5) were far behind. One in twenty (5%, -7) don’t know who they liked most.
  • Andrea Horwath wins (57%, +6) as the leader who is most visually attractive, with Tim Hudak (17%, +2) and Kathleen Wynne (12%, unchanged) trailing in that department. One in ten (14%, -8) don’t know.
Click to expand...

---

Shifting tides

13% said they'll make their decisions after debates, 13% say their minds were changed as a result of their debates.

---

Issues

  • Economy – Tim Hudak (38%, +5), Kathleen Wynne (31%, +3), Andrea Horwath (21%, +3), don’t know (10%, -10).
  • Healthcare – Andrea Horwath (34%, +8), Kathleen Wynne (27%, -3), Tim Hudak (19%, -1), don’t know (21%, -4).
  • Government Accountability – Tim Hudak (37%, +6), Andrea Horwath (29%, +6), Kathleen Wynne (19%, unchanged) and two in ten don’t know (15%, -13).
  • Debt/Deficit reduction – Tim Hudak (44%, +8), Andrea Horwath (21%, +5), Kathleen Wynne (20%, -3), don’t know (15%, -10).
  • Taxes – Tim Hudak (38%, +4), Andrea Horwath (24%, +3), Kathleen Wynne (24%, unchanged), don’t know (14%, -8).
  • Social Services – Andrea Horwath (39%, +7), Kathleen Wynne (27%, -1), Tim Hudak (19%, +1), don’t know (15%, -8).
  • Education – Andrea Horwath (30%, +8), Kathleen Wynne (29%, -5), Tim Hudak (28%, +8), don’t know (12%, -12).
  • Environment – Andrea Horwath (33%, +9), Kathleen Wynne (21%, -3), Tim Hudak (15%, unchanged), don’t know (31%, -6).
Click to expand...

---

Who sang your tune?

On the issue that matters most to them, personally, one in three (34%) say that Tim Hudak did the best job of addressing that issue in tonight’s debate. This compares with one quarter (26%) who say that Kathleen Wynne did the best job addressing their top concern, and slightly fewer viewers (23%) who say that Andrea Horwath did so. Two in ten (18%), though, say that no leader did a good job addressing the issue that matters to them the most.
Click to expand...

---

Time for a change?

Prior to the start of the debate, 36% of viewers believed that the Wynne government has done a good job and deserves re-election, while most (64%) thought it was time for another provincial party to take over at Queen’s Park. At the conclusion of the debate, there was a slight change: just one in three (34%) believe Wynne’s government deserves re-election (down 2 points), while 66% desire change (up 2 points).
Click to expand...
 
E

equippedwithtowel

Member
So the debate was a joint press conference that helped people cement who they're already supporting.

Horvath's favorable have always been relatively good, however if the IRG study is anything to go by it won't buy them much new support.
 
M

maharg

idspispopd
equippedwithtowel said:
So the debate was a joint press conference that helped people cement who they're already supporting.t.
Click to expand...

Here's the thing, it's actually clear that debates *do* affect how people vote. In most elections things don't really seem to swing in rational and consistent ways until the debates (though in this one they seem to be exceptionally close to the debate). The debate is basically the first time people really hear a comparative version of the platforms and personalities of the leaders they're going to vote for.

But no one 'wins' a debate because the decisions that come out of a debate don't happen during it. And they don't necessarily happen in the way people's off-the-cuff reaction makes them think it will. It's just part of a process, and the debate is a kick-off to that process, not an end-point. People's attentions are now on making a decision, so now they actually will.

Just look at the Orange Wave (note: not suggesting something similar will happen in Ontario at all). Coming out of that debate people were pretty positive about the NDP, and the first few polls out of it showed a bit of a bump, but it wasn't until a couple weeks had passed that it became obvious that Layton's "people expect you to show up to work" line was clearly some kind of earworm that was changing the nature of the election. Most of the press reaction and immediate polling was pretty lukewarm relative to the actual impact of that debate.

This is why I say no one wins a debate. The debate is just the starting gate.
 
E

elty

Member
I thought many elections recently experience a sudden shift towards the end?

The last federal election saw NDP swept Quebec.
The last Alberta election saw PC beat the WIldrose.
Then the last BC election saw Liberal came back from behind, beating NDP which was in 50% support at some time.
 
F

firehawk12

Subete no aware
I think the only surprise is the NDP in Quebec one, and that's mostly because the protest vote actually worked.

The other ones were more fuck ups than surprises. Especially the BC one. lol
 
M

maharg

idspispopd
firehawk12 said:
I think the only surprise is the NDP in Quebec one, and that's mostly because the protest vote actually worked.

The other ones were more fuck ups than surprises. Especially the BC one. lol
Click to expand...

The Alberta swing was pretty thoroughly unexpected. There was not a single poll that predicted a majority for the PCs for the whole campaign to my recollection. People's final opinions seem to have solidified in the last 5 or so days between the final poll and the election.
 
Z

Zombie James

Banned
DAOzcf3l.jpg
 
F

Fuzzy

I would bang a hot farmer!
Norm Kelly (Toronto Deputy Mayor) endorsed Wynne today.

Mr.Mike said:
Horwath's probably the most popular of the lot. Although Tim Hudak has to go. Surely he couldn't stay as leader after this performance?
Click to expand...
I hope he does just to keep the PC's out in the future.
 
S

SRG01

Member
Oh wow. I'm absolutely floored at how the polls are going for Wynne right now.

I mean, I'm as red as they come (Lib/Tory) and even I have to say that Wynne's prospects didn't look this good at the start of the campaign.
 
S

Silexx

Member
Shifting to federal politics real quick, but looks like the RCMP are looking into Mike Duffy's visits to PEI, where he claimed to be his primary residence.

Turns out when in PEI, he would stay in a hotel and then claim it on his Senate expenses.
 
S

Simon Belmont

Banned
maharg said:
I'm not at all sure what you're asking me here. It would indeed be a magical electoral system if it conformed to a pre-determined outcome?
Click to expand...

Are you being deliberately obtuse? Based on the current polls the most likely outcome is a Liberal minority. Obviously that can change, but is unlikely to change much beyond swapping fist and second place. The question asked was what electoral system would produce drastically different results, assuming the parties capture roughly the same percentage of the vote.
 
E

equippedwithtowel

Member
Simon Belmont said:
Are you being deliberately obtuse? Based on the current polls the most likely outcome is a Liberal minority. Obviously that can change, but is unlikely to change much beyond swapping fist and second place. The question asked was what electoral system would produce drastically different results, assuming the parties capture roughly the same percentage of the vote.
Click to expand...

I think he was referring to the apparently real chance of a lib majority with only 40% support.
 
M

maharg

idspispopd
Simon Belmont said:
Are you being deliberately obtuse? Based on the current polls the most likely outcome is a Liberal minority. Obviously that can change, but is unlikely to change much beyond swapping fist and second place. The question asked was what electoral system would produce drastically different results, assuming the parties capture roughly the same percentage of the vote.
Click to expand...

The last polls actually have them entering majority territory.

But even so, a minority where they only need a couple of extra votes when the next party down got almost as many votes as they did is still ridiculous. The friction to their governance will probably not be proportionate to their electoral victory.
 
S

Simon Belmont

Banned
maharg said:
The last polls actually have them entering majority territory.

But even so, a minority where they only need a couple of extra votes when the next party down got almost as many votes as they did is still ridiculous. The friction to their governance will probably not be proportionate to their electoral victory.
Click to expand...

I guess from my view if 33 is almost 40, then 40 is almost 50 when you consider 6% of the vote goes to the Greens / Al Gretzky / Christian Heritage Party / whatever other party won't win a seat.
 
M

maharg

idspispopd
Simon Belmont said:
I guess from my view if 33 is almost 40, then 40 is almost 50 when you consider 6% of the vote goes to the Greens / Al Gretzky / Christian Heritage Party / whatever other party won't win a seat.
Click to expand...

...

...


....


And you were talking about *me* talking about magic?
 
M

maharg

idspispopd
Because it magnifies every other problem our system has. It's easily the most fundamentally broken thing in our political system at the moment.
 
S

Stumpokapow

listen to the mad man
Fuzzy said:
Norm Kelly (Toronto Deputy Mayor) endorsed Wynne today.
Click to expand...

Not really sure what that's about. I know in another lifetime he was a Liberal, but it certainly doesn't jive with his record over the last ten years. An attempt to curry favour because he thinks the winds are blowing her way? An attempt to moderate himself to hedge against what he sees as an ascending left municipally? Genuine change of heart?
 
B

BigJonsson

Member
Stumpokapow said:
Not really sure what that's about. I know in another lifetime he was a Liberal, but it certainly doesn't jive with his record over the last ten years. An attempt to curry favour because he thinks the winds are blowing her way? An attempt to moderate himself to hedge against what he sees as an ascending left municipally? Genuine change of heart?
Click to expand...


Wynne is better for Toronto transit plans
 
Z

Zombie James

Banned
BigJonsson said:
Wynne is better for Toronto transit plans
Click to expand...

Hudak opposing GO electrification is so incredibly shortsighted and stupid, and on top of that he wants to cancel every transit project the city's planning or building that isn't the Scarborough subway (I don't believe for a second that the Eglinton LRT would be spared). Conservatives are poison to Toronto.
 
S

Stumpokapow

listen to the mad man
BigJonsson said:
Wynne is better for Toronto transit plans
Click to expand...

The recent monolithic status that transit has in Toronto municipal politics boggles my mind. I've lived in a few different places, and obviously transit is a part of municipal strategy everywhere, but very few major cities are quite so single-minded in transit as the major political issue. Also very few major cities have politicized LRT versus subway versus walkability versus bus versus street car versus whatever--normally deciding between these things is theoretically a City Manager / civil servant type decision rather than a politically salient issue). Really astonishing.
 
M

maharg

idspispopd
Stumpokapow said:
The recent monolithic status that transit has in Toronto municipal politics boggles my mind. I've lived in a few different places, and obviously transit is a part of municipal strategy everywhere, but very few major cities are quite so single-minded in transit as the major political issue. Also very few major cities have politicized LRT versus subway versus walkability versus bus versus street car versus whatever--normally deciding between these things is theoretically a City Manager / civil servant type decision rather than a politically salient issue). Really astonishing.
Click to expand...

I think maybe this is just a changing thing everywhere. Obviously it'd be more acute in Toronto than most places, but here in Edmonton all these sorts of things have been top billing on the last few civic elections, but they were completely ignored issues for about 20 years before that.

We even had an airport in or debate about transit.
 
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