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Canada Poligaf - The Wrath of Harperland
- Thread starter DreamMachine
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You Are Viewtiful
Member
Your PM took a lot of electoral tips from ours. Especially on refugee/immigration, climate change, "tough on crime" stuff.
Also if your PM starts blaming the Supreme Court for everything bad that happens then he also got that from us. Also if you have any stats-keeping bureau, prepare for it to get mangled.
I think right now you can't really put all your eggs in any one basket. We're really moving in to a situation where telephones are no longer ubiquitous in the way they were, and the internet not quite ubiquitous enough yet. I think long run online panels will probably be the thing that actually works when the kinks are worked out, though.
We're probably never going to get back to the place where you can get a reasonably random sample from picking random numbers, though. I just don't see how that could happen.
BigJonsson
Member
Agreed
Actually, IVR was (partly) blamed as to why the Alberta election polls were so wrong...
BigJonsson
Member
You Are Viewtiful
Member
I thought it was because there were no polls since 3 days before the election, and during those three days the PCs ran a huge and effective advertising blitz. It could have convinced me lol, but I already think all Albertans are cowboys.
The thing that makes me find EKOS polls wrong is their very high Green numbers and votes for fringe parties. At one point they had Greens+fringe getting 15% of the vote, right now they have them at 11%. Compare that to the 3-4% they actually got in 2011.
There was definitely a last minute swing in voter intent when it looked like WRP was going to pull off at least government. A lot of that has been attributed to Liberal and NDP voters swinging, but I doubt it. It was just undecided/fence voters who'd probably never vote left of the PCs.
BladeWorker
Member
There are a few reasons to mistrust Ekos' polls and Graves' interpretations of his results, but that observation aside..
One would get a high number for Green or Other when they're offered as explicit options compared to when they are volunteered responses in an otherwise equivalent phone survey. The decision to have them as "read" options as opposed to "volunteered" or "do not read" is up to the methodology and the pollster writing the survey. There are valid arguments on either side.
There's been a debate in the industry ever since the Greens approved a platform as to which of the read/volunteered/dnr buckets they should sit in.
Zombie James
Banned
Liberals take a significant lead: http://www.ekospolitics.com/index.php/2014/06/race-breaking-liberal/
I just had conversation with a coworker who has only ever voted conservative or spoiled his ballot.
He thinks that a rational transit plan that should be implemented is to build a subway from Toronto out to Milton or even Kitchener, underneath the 401. The "subways subways subways" crowd, folks. :-/
He thinks that a rational transit plan that should be implemented is to build a subway from Toronto out to Milton or even Kitchener, underneath the 401. The "subways subways subways" crowd, folks. :-/
Three bucks to get from Toronto to Kitchener? I'm sold!
You Are Viewtiful
Member
Does he even take subways? That would easily take 4 hours, 6 hours with TTC delays 
Does he even take subways? That would easily take 4 hours, 6 hours with TTC delays
No, he drives from Cambridge to milton.
You Are Viewtiful
Member
Woah, my dream results from Ipsos came out today. Wanna guess who the CEO of Ipsos is
Internet Ipsos Reid (Likely): Liberals 33% (30%), PCs 31% (36%), NDP 30% (30%), Greens+Others 4% (4%)
IVR Forum: Liberals 42%, PCs 35%, NDP 19%, Greens 3%, Others 1%
That's quite the commute.
Internet Ipsos Reid (Likely): Liberals 33% (30%), PCs 31% (36%), NDP 30% (30%), Greens+Others 4% (4%)
IVR Forum: Liberals 42%, PCs 35%, NDP 19%, Greens 3%, Others 1%
That's quite the commute.
Not really. I've had to regularly drive to either Brampton or Oshawa from Scarborough and that's roughly the same amount of KMs.That's quite the commute.
That's quite the commute.
lol, umm, not really. Half my office commutes from Kitchener/Cambridge/Guelph. And it's a shorter commute than all the people who take the Go trains downtown from Milton, Burlington, etc.
One coworker, when she was posted to the airport detachment, drove her commute from Kitchener to Pearson. For 5 years..
You Are Viewtiful
Member
Don't mind my geography fart, I thought Cambridge was to the West of Kitchener lol. Probably helps that you don't have to drive through the Oakville and Mississauga parking lots.
edit: some more, all internet
Léger: 37% Liberal, 37% Conservative, 20% NDP, 5% Greens, 1% Others
Abacus (Likely): 35% (36%) Liberal, 32% (36%) Conservative, 26% (23%) NDP, 6% (5%) Greens, 1% (1%) Others
Angus Reid: 36% Conservative, 32% Liberal, 26% NDP, 6% Greens+Others
edit: éric always does it better...
edit: some more, all internet
Léger: 37% Liberal, 37% Conservative, 20% NDP, 5% Greens, 1% Others
Abacus (Likely): 35% (36%) Liberal, 32% (36%) Conservative, 26% (23%) NDP, 6% (5%) Greens, 1% (1%) Others
Angus Reid: 36% Conservative, 32% Liberal, 26% NDP, 6% Greens+Others
edit: éric always does it better...
You Are Viewtiful
Member
Final projection is up *drumroll*...
PCs lose 1 seat to NDP #StopHudak
PCs lose 1 seat to NDP #StopHudak
Zombie James
Banned
Final projection is up *drumroll*...
PCs lose 1 seat to NDP #StopHudak
Compared to seats when dissolved: Liberals -4, Cons -1, NDP +5. I really don't see that NDP bump happening, but we'll see.
You Are Viewtiful
Member
That's compared to 2011 seats. Since then there were 9 byelections, Liberals lost 4 and NDP gained 4, Conservatives equalled out. At dissolution it was 49 Liberal (or 48 if you count Linda Jeffery who resigned right before), 37 Conservative, 21 NDP.
firehawk12
Subete no aware
Gonna vote, even I guess it's pointless since my temporary riding is decidedly Liberal. What can ya do.
Although then again, in terms of party policies, I think at this point we could let some monkeys run Queen's Park and we'd have the same results.
Although then again, in terms of party policies, I think at this point we could let some monkeys run Queen's Park and we'd have the same results.
Zombie James
Banned
Yeah, you're right, I was looking at the wrong section. Again, I still don't see the NDP gaining anything.
You Are Viewtiful
Member
I think Windsor West and Sudbury are theirs for the taking. I don't know what they'll lose to balance that out though. Maybe Trinity-Spadina because of the federal byelection, and Davenport. Maaaybe Kitchener-Waterloo but that would be awful, Fife would make an awesome NDP leader if Horwath decides to quit.
Well there were two hypothesis about the Alberta election. The first is IVR, since it's relatively new and apparently had some polling issues since most people didn't know what to do. I think there may have been a comment thread on 308 or some other political site that elaborated more on this.
As a personal anecdote, I got an IVR call and it was not immediately distinguishable from an autodialer of some sort. And requiring me to press numbers threw me off too.
The second hypothesis was the last minute swing, which was apparently captured by Forum the weekend before the vote. However, apparently internal polling done by the PCs throughout the campaign was actually far closer to the election result...
You should really discount anything you hear about 'internal numbers' out of hand. It's always narrative control.
BigJonsson
Member
Still think Liberals are going to win the most seats, but that ipsos poll is just so different from all the rest
Simon Belmont
Banned
How did turnout looks where everyone else voted? Looked dead where I was.
Cloud Strife
Member
Going out soon, this should be an interesting turn out.
I was the only person at my place too, I'm sure it'd be a bit more busy after 5ish.
BigJonsson
Member
Rain in Rainy River? You don't say!
Yeah, just after 3:30 when I voted it was pretty dead but that's typical in my area. By about 6/7pm there will be lines out of the school gym.
Cloud Strife
Member
Everyone was over the age of 60, I was literally the youngest one there by over 30 years...hmm....
killer rin
Member
I went at 5:00 and it was pretty much dead (5 people at most), though there was a constant stream of people to replace those which left. Out of the people there, I was the youngest by far.
My brother and I hit up our polling station around 11:30-12:00ish. Maybe 7-8 people there at the time. No wait to vote. Enough people were coming through to ensure there was always someone at each station, but I was only there for 5 minutes or so.
Simon Belmont
Banned
I wasn't, but I had my six month old son with me. I think I saw three people vote while I was there :/
Ya, what's the point of even putting that up on the screen?
http://www.cbc.ca/elections/ontariovotes2014/results
Well shoot. Looks like the Greens might get one!
Wait no, that's a green vote. Interesting that there's a polling station that only had a green vote in it.
Well shoot. Looks like the Greens might get one!
Wait no, that's a green vote. Interesting that there's a polling station that only had a green vote in it.
It was just on the little result ticker so it's not like they focused on it. Just thought it amusing that there was a poll somewhere that only had one vote. TVO joking about the one Green seat only having one vote total as well.
matthewwhatever
Member
The Greens are off the board!
EDIT: And back on!
I'm thinking this will be the only interesting thing to watch the whole evening.
EDIT: And back on!
I'm thinking this will be the only interesting thing to watch the whole evening.
Got Damn Windsor West is literally neck and neck between the Liberals and NDP right now.
That second brief moment of the Greens being on the board was in Windsor-West. Represent!
That second brief moment of the Greens being on the board was in Windsor-West. Represent!
Cloud Strife
Member
Holy shit at NDP so far, still to early to call anything but my riding is seriously looking to have the PC outed with NDP in second.
firehawk12
Subete no aware
Looks like a Liberal majority. God damn.
matthewwhatever
Member
So Dippers: if the Liberals pull off a majority, Horwath has to go, right? This would represent a pretty massive miscalculation on her part.
And Hudak, of course, probably won't last the night if these results stand.
And Hudak, of course, probably won't last the night if these results stand.
Simon Belmont
Banned
For what it's worth, my wife said it about three seconds before she did. Dude looked like Rob Ford.
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