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Canada Poligaf - The Wrath of Harperland

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F

Fuzzy

I would bang a hot farmer!
It's the constant announcement/cancelling/announcement cycle that has made transit the issue it is today.
 
Z

Zombie James

Banned
Gfp1qnO.png


Evening out slightly, putting Liberals into a projected minority.

I think it's interesting to see the massive beating the NDP are taking based on these projections. Compared to how many seats each party had when the legislature was dissolved, the Liberals +5, the Conservatives are +3, and the NDP are -7. Horwath is an idiot.
 
F

firehawk12

Subete no aware
NDP blew it.

I wonder if this means anything for the Federal NDP. The collapse in BC was seen as a sign of the Federal party apparatus falling on its face.
 
A

Azih

Member
Fuzzy said:
It's the constant announcement/cancelling/announcement cycle that has made transit the issue it is today.
Click to expand...

Yeah it's really the fact that it seems like Toronto started resting on its laurels in the 80s and then just as it started to invest in upgrading transit again in the 90s... got hit by the double whammy of an actively hostile Mike Harris and a Liberal federal government that didn't give a shit about anything other than massive surpluses to finance tax cuts that led to the 90s really being a lost decade. It's only with the tandem of McGuinty and Miller that Toronto managed to start upgrading transit again in the mid 00s. Seeing how long it takes for transit infrastructure to be built the results of that won't be seen for another 3 or so years.
 
G

gutter_trash

Banned
I like Hudak's attacks on the Liberals on Hydro hikes... since it was Mike Harris who privatized it

who is moran who slated election day to be on the same day as the World Cup inaugural?
 
Y

You Are Viewtiful

Member
McGuinty didn't build any transit :s

I guess there's the Vaughan subway which isn't open yet, but Harris built the Sheppard subway. And in a fight between Sheppard vs. Vaughan, I'd pick Sheppard.

Zombie James said:
No matter how bad those job numbers are, they'll be far worse under Hudak. He promised.
Click to expand...

Hudak is simply honest about what he will do. The Liberals aren't. They have a $15 billion deficit and they say they will balance it in 3 years, but they haven't said how. The truth is there will be layoffs.

gutter_trash said:
I like Hudak's attacks on the Liberals on Hydro hikes... since it was Mike Harris who privatized it

who is moran who slated election day to be on the same day as the World Cup inaugural?
Click to expand...

The main reason the prices are going up 33% in 3 years is the green energy scam (billions in private contracts to German and Korean companies) and sky high capital cost of nuclear. I like Hudak's plan to buy hydro from Québec, Liberals are still being too protectionist because Bruce is one of their biggest fundraisers.
 
Y

You Are Viewtiful

Member
equippedwithtowel said:
I'm glad you feel confident in the 25 000 Jobs plan. But hey if it doesn't work in eight years Hudak will resign, no lost time at all.
Click to expand...

I just don't want a Liberal majority.

I don't buy that #hudakmath story though. Economics is not a science, and the media inviting in "expert economists" as if they actually know how much jobs this or that will create about is a bit silly. According to "expert economists," the HST would create 600,000 jobs, and now we lost 100,000 jobs since before the recession.

BigJonsson said:
What about cancelling the eginton subway? And the York u subway is a huge deal
Click to expand...

Cancelling the Eglinton subway was not as devestating as cancelling Transit City. The biggest problem with Harris transit plan was when they took away the 50% operating cost the province used to fund for transit. McGuinty didn't reinstate that.

The York U subway is good if it was an actual York U subway. It's a Vaughan subway, and all the good parts of that subway are heavily outweighed by the bad. That area of Vaughan is a desert. You can go to the area yourself, parking lots as far as the eye can see. It's an industrial area with some suburban strip malls. It will cost us huge bucks in the future which means less transit to places which need them.
 
B

BigJonsson

Member
400 and 7 is a desert? Lol OK.....

Even without the downtown Vaughan redevelopment there are tons of people in the area that will gladly leave their cars at home and take the subway downtown .....
 
Y

You Are Viewtiful

Member
Whenever I go to that area (Dave&Busters) I feel like I'm in suburban Phoenix. My area is sub-rural but feels more walkable and transit friendly then that place lol

I can't see a situation where people would opt for the subway instead of their cars. You know the double fare is still in effect right? Why pay $6-8 to get downtown when you can pay $5ish and get there 30 minutes earlier? And transit ridership in York Region is on a downward trend compared to population growth.
 
A

Azih

Member
The Vaughn and Thronhill subways are as big if not bigger wastes of money than the Sheppard stubway unfortunately. Just like that line they feed a YUS line that is already way way WAY overloaded. Worse they add to operational costs permanently without the ridership numbers to justify it and that money takes away from other priorities on an ongoing basis. Plus that money represents an opportunity cost lost to build what is really needed to reduce congestion on the subway which is the DRL and that money would also be far better used to build more light rail East-West across the GTA to try to get some pressure off the 401 and Gardiner Expressway.
 
B

BigJonsson

Member
There are plenty of people who will ditch their car at the station and head down, driving down is brutal

Viva expansion is also important
 
S

SRG01

Member
maharg said:
I think maybe this is just a changing thing everywhere. Obviously it'd be more acute in Toronto than most places, but here in Edmonton all these sorts of things have been top billing on the last few civic elections, but they were completely ignored issues for about 20 years before that.

We even had an airport in or debate about transit.
Click to expand...

To be fair though, I think the reason why a lot of these transit plans are election issues is because of the massive amount of capital required for these projects.

If we were to take Edmonton as an example, the SE LRT line is has $1.8 billion in funding. Granted, yes, we would've avoided this cost if Edmonton built this line decades ago, but the political environment wasn't conducive for that.
 
E

equippedwithtowel

Member
While we're on the subject of transit, fuck Hudak for refusing to support the LRT phase 2 in Ottawa. No one wants to take a train from Hurdman to Tunney's and the whole thing is kinda pointless if the Orleans/Riverside South/Bayshore extensions don't get built.

You Are Viewtiful said:
I just don't want a Liberal majority.

I don't buy that #hudakmath story though. Economics is not a science, and the media inviting in "expert economists" as if they actually know how much jobs this or that will create about is a bit silly. According to "expert economists," the HST would create 600,000 jobs, and now we lost 100,000 jobs since before the recession.
Click to expand...

The issue with #hudakmath isn't that the independant economists don't support it (but diminishing returns to employment off a corporate tax cut seems pretty straightforward) but that he willfully misrepresented his third party projections in the first place. He's either the worst economist ever or a pathological liar.

edit: it's the same thing with the 100 000 cuts. Even though front line services apparently won't be affected PC MPPs are happy to use retirement projections that include those sectors.
 
Y

You Are Viewtiful

Member
explodet said:
I enjoyed how Google decided that one of Hamilton's primary landmarks is a Thrifty Car Rental.
Click to expand...

Damn. The driving school made the list too. If there wasn't a better case to build an LRT...

BigJonsson said:
There are plenty of people who will ditch their car at the station and head down, driving down is brutal

Viva expansion is also important
Click to expand...

Who even lives there? Most Vaughnites (?) live in Thornhill or Maple. Thornhillers take Yonge, Maple residents take GO or drive. Concord is all industrial plants and giant trucks. The only houses I see there are dilapidated.

VIVA is indepdent of the subway. VIVA fair will probably be $5 by the time all the busways are built. Subway will be $3.50. Driving will be cheaper if you stay out of downtown. If you are going downtown I'm pretty sure you'll take your car to take back an hour of your life and a lot of stress. We're talking about a region that is dropping transit. Look at YRT ridership numbers, they're flat, meanwhile population growth is 10% over 5 years. Less people are taking transit, more are buying cars.

When you build a subway in the middle of nowhere, you encouage sprawl. It's no different than building more highways. Everything will be more expensive once that subway is done.
 
Y

You Are Viewtiful

Member
It takes an hour on the subway. Add in 30 minutes+ of bus time since there's no residential in that area.

It's not relaxing at all. Riding transit is stressful. There's no historic precedence for that area to be comfortable with taking transit.

equippedwithtowel said:
The issue with #hudakmath isn't that the independant economists don't support it (but diminishing returns to employment off a corporate tax cut seems pretty straightforward) but that he willfully misrepresented his third party projections in the first place. He's either the worst economist ever or a pathological liar.

edit: it's the same thing with the 100 000 cuts. Even though front line services apparently won't be affected PC MPPs are happy to use retirement projections that include those sectors.
Click to expand...

I don't believe he'll create a million jobs, but I don't think all those measures will create only 125,000 jobs over 8 years. The tax cuts aren't the best idea but they are way smarter than targetted handouts. I hope it's a minority government anyway, so neither ideas come to fruition.

Liberals already fired many nurses and we all know what happened with Bill 115 and the resulting strikes. Their latest budget cut many pension benefits of OPSEU. It's short-sighted to think Liberals won't mess with front line services and labour.

edit: Kind of (a little bit) regretting voting Conservative right now. The 308 numbers weigh heavily on EKOS and their untested likely voter model

20140606_slide1.jpg


20140606_slide2.jpg


Hmm, I'll see if it's worth at least donating to the NDP as a sorry gift over the next few days lol. According to their basic poll, the NDP is up since the debates, and I saw their pre-debate numbers. They had NDP in 4th place behind the Greens in Southwestern, that's crazy-level wrong. Their latest poll now has them in 2nd place. Also I just realized it's a Rolling poll. I'm guessing these numbers are entirely post-debate, and their previous numbers had pre-debate voters in them?

edit 2: Wow, EKOS has Conservatives ahead in Northern Ontario. He didn't even show up for the debates! I'm seriously questioning EKOS' methodology right now. In fact, most the regions had massive shifts except the North which looks static. Does anyone know the regional sample sizes?

Day 1:
20140602_slide4.jpg

Day 5:
20140606_slide5.jpg
 
A

Azih

Member
BigJonsson said:
Driving downtown with traffic is horrible compared to relaxing on the subway for half an hour
Click to expand...

Subway from Finch is an hour in peak hours. and it is jam packed by Sheppard and like a sardine can by Bloor. This line could have been a busway, a light rail line, and should not have been built even then until the DRL is built so that the poor line can actually handle the extra load. It should be built of course, just not now, as it's getting in the way of higher priority projects.
 
B

BigJonsson

Member
Azih said:
Subway from Finch is an hour in peak hours. and it is jam packed by Sheppard and like a sardine can by Bloor. This line could have been a busway, a light rail line, and should not have been built even then until the DRL is built so that the poor line can actually handle the extra load. It should be built of course, just not now, as it's getting in the way of higher priority projects.
Click to expand...


Thank Rob Ford for Transit City getting hosed =/
 
Y

You Are Viewtiful

Member
BigJonsson said:
Ford demanded it go underground because LRT = Streetcar = worst thing ever =/
Click to expand...

I think if we had a government that wasn't so Toronto-focused, the government would have had the balls to say no to that. The underground LRT costs 3 times more than the above-ground LRT.

The weird thing is the TTC/Toronto doesn't even own the Eglinton LRT, it's owned my Metrolinx/the Province. So the province would have been well in its democratic jurisdiction to tell Ford to beat it.
 
B

BigJonsson

Member
You Are Viewtiful said:
I think if we had a government that wasn't so Toronto-focused, the government would have had the balls to say no to that. The underground LRT costs 3 times more than the above-ground LRT.

The weird thing is the TTC/Toronto doesn't even own the Eglinton LRT, it's owned my Metrolinx/the Province. So the province would have been well in its democratic jurisdiction to tell Ford to beat it.
Click to expand...


No one wanted to stand up to Ford at that time =/
 
M

maharg

idspispopd
SRG01 said:
To be fair though, I think the reason why a lot of these transit plans are election issues is because of the massive amount of capital required for these projects.

If we were to take Edmonton as an example, the SE LRT line is has $1.8 billion in funding. Granted, yes, we would've avoided this cost if Edmonton built this line decades ago, but the political environment wasn't conducive for that.
Click to expand...

It wasn't conducive anywhere. For various and sundry reasons, pretty much all of Canada/US went through a period of underfunding infrastructure in the 80s and 90s. I'm just saying it's not a phenomenon unique to Toronto, but to all Canadian cities big enough to have a transit infrastructure deficit.
 
G

GSG Flash

Nobody ruins my family vacation but me...and maybe the boy!
equippedwithtowel said:
While we're on the subject of transit, fuck Hudak for refusing to support the LRT phase 2 in Ottawa. No one wants to take a train from Hurdman to Tunney's and the whole thing is kinda pointless if the Orleans/Riverside South/Bayshore extensions don't get built.
Click to expand...

Agreed.

Hudak's plans are incredibly shortsighted and focused on the now rather than the future. It's clear that he does not see Ottawa as a city worth investing into, it's too bad that the dumbasses in my riding will still vote PC :/

If there's one thing that the province should definitely spend money on, it's improving public transit infrastructure.
 
Z

Zombie James

Banned
You Are Viewtiful said:
Bloomberg: Wynne's Budget Fortells Biggest Ontario Cuts Since Harris

I watched the Liberal budget review on TV Ontario and when they got to the part about how they will balance the budget, they said they would cut 6% a year in non-priority ministries. For comparison, Harris cut 5% per non-priority ministry when he was tightening the belt.
Click to expand...

The difference is "non-priority" to Harris were schools and hospitals.

Anyways, another EKOS update:

The Progressive Conservative surge of yesterday appears to have halted and our three-day roll now finds them in a statistically insignificant lead, but trailing on likely voters. More notably, the large single night lead which vaulted them back in to parity in the race does not appear to be continuing. The race is now basically tied and the outcome remains highly uncertain. The very large bump that disrupted the stable Liberal lead appears to have dissipated and, in fact, the Liberals enjoyed a modest lead last night. The net result is a basic tie with no clear winner in view.
Click to expand...

And in case people wonder why Conservatives make it a top priority to attack education every chance they get:

VSI7XN8.jpg
 
M

Mr.Mike

Member
Does anyone know what demographics all these pollsters consider "likely voters"? Based on that chart I'm guessing it's University educated people, and I'd think age would factor in too.
 
S

Stumpokapow

listen to the mad man
Mr.Mike said:
Does anyone know what demographics all these pollsters consider "likely voters"? Based on that chart I'm guessing it's University educated people, and I'd think age would factor in too.
Click to expand...

Not by demographics; typically what they do is use screening questions like "How much would you say you care about politics?", "Have you paid a lot of attention to this election?", "Do you plan to vote in this election?", "How often do you vote?", "Did you vote in the last election?", "Are you registered and eligible to vote?" and then using proprietary magic combining the results to get a likely voter model.
 
Y

You Are Viewtiful

Member
There is no difference, Liberals are closing schools, hospitals and ERs too.

Here's EKOS' likely voter model

Looking at factors we can measure and understand, we offer the following ingredients of our Likely Voter model:

Past voting behaviour. Our research shows that the best predictor of whether one will vote is past voting behaviour. Serial non-voters remain such and vice versa.
1 point for voting in the 2011 federal election
1 point for voting in the 2011 Ontario election
2 points for voting in both elections

Emotional engagement. This one is tricky and important (where Newport faltered). We give a half-point for those exhibiting strong emotions (anger, hope, happiness), while awarding none to the more tepid, discouraged voters.
0.5 points for expressing anger with Kathleen Wynne’s Liberal government
0.5 points for expressing hope with Kathleen Wynne’s Liberal government
0.5 points for expressing happiness with Kathleen Wynne’s Liberal government

Intention. The obvious approach of asking people if they are going to vote (often recommended to us) has some pretty big flaws. The connection between self-stated intentions and behaviour is highly sketchy in the real world.
1 point for rating likelihood to vote as 6 (out of 7)
2 points for rating likelihood to vote as 7 (out of 7)
OR
2 points for already having voted

Knowing where the polling station is. This is a useful but limited predictor. As Pew and others have found, if you don’t know where you are supposed to go to vote a few days before the election, you aren’t voting. We can’t figure out a proper score for being told an erroneous location and let’s hope there is none of that this time out.
1 point for “clearly” knowing the location of one’s polling station
OR
1 point for already having voted

Finally, we tally the scores and identify the ~50 per cent of the population that is most likely to show up and vote on Election Day. In this case, we take all those respondents who score 4.5 or greater (out of a maximum possible score of 5.5).
Click to expand...

IPSOS Poll (Likely Voters): Conservatives 35 (40), Liberals 35 (32), NDP 26 (24), Others 4 (4)
Forum: 39% Liberal, 37% Conservative, 17% NDP, 6% Green, 1% Others
 
E

elty

Member
So the less educated prefer a government that make sure everyone else remain less educated?

As expected Liberal is playing the split vote = conservative trick again. Really hate that. Does a party still get subsidy based on ballot received?
 
E

equippedwithtowel

Member
elty said:
So the less educated prefer a government that make sure everyone else remain less educated?

As expected Liberal is playing the split vote = conservative trick again. Really hate that. Does a party still get subsidy based on ballot received?
Click to expand...

Elections Ontario said:
Candidates get 20% of their subject to limit expenses if they get 15 percent of the popular vote

Parties get $0.05 per elector for each electoral district where they get 15 per cent of the popular vote
Click to expand...

So for tight races like Ottawa South and Orleans the 10-12% NDP support isn't helping anyone except the PC's. However if it's a stronger third then go for it.
 
Y

You Are Viewtiful

Member
Wynne is starting to sound desperate and flailing, Hudak is sounding more premier-like. Hopefully a sign of things to come.

And what is it with Liberals invoking the name of Jack Layton against Jack's closest friends? She didn't skip Ed Broadbent either.

BptENAsCAAESgre.jpg:large
 
Y

You Are Viewtiful

Member
Seriously, no point in 'strategic voting' if Liberals are in majority territory. Beisdes, Charelli losing his Ottawa seat would be justice, he'll be in jail in a few months time anyway.
 
M

maharg

idspispopd
Riding-specific strategic voting is and always has been a complete sham. There is simply not nearly enough polling data to justify making a decision on who to vote for on polling for the current election. If your riding has a strong tradition of being split between two options in the past, you probably already know that and have factored it into your decision. Taking a 1000-2000 person sample across a province (let alone the country) and applying its swing to a particular riding is ridiculous, though, and will never be anything but FUD.

The reason things like threehundredeight.com can take information from applying those swings is that the errors tend to even out. They'll be right about a number, but the riding specific predictions will usually be off by a larger error margin.
 
Y

You Are Viewtiful

Member
^ Good point, especially when you take regionals into account. If you get a map of Northern Ontario you would think Conservatives don't have a chance, and he missed the leader's debate too. But Ipsos and EKOS are saying Hudak has a healthy lead there. Same for SW Ontario when EKOS said the Greens are ahead of the NDP there. Many regions are clearly are clearly being underpolled, high margin of error.

OracleResearch (Telephone): 35% PCs, 35% Liberals, 24% NDP, 6% Greens
Abacus Data (Internet): 34% Liberals, 31% PCs, 28% NDP, 5% Greens

Praying Abacus is right and EKOS putting NDP at 14% is wrong lol
 
M

maharg

idspispopd
BigJonsson said:
How do they do these internet polls? Can anyone go to the site and vote or do they solicit people somehow?
Click to expand...

Afaik they're open to register for, and you supply information about yourself, and then they select panels from the people who've registered selecting for demographics matching the target of the poll (province, country, city, etc). They are not technically random samples the way phone wardialling is assumed to be (but possibly isn't either anymore) so they can't have a real MoE attached to them.
 
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