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[Pedrito]

There are only 2 ways Harper continues to be Prime Minister after the election:

1) His party gets 35% of the vote and the NDP/Liberals split so perfectly that the CPC ekes out an incredibly slim minority.

2) He has a strong minority and the Block holds the balance of power, not the Liberals or Greens. If that is the case, then it would be hard for the Liberals and NDP to try to form a coalition because they'd also need the backing of the Bloc, and that is what tanked the 2008 attempted coalition.

But in scenario 2, the Bloc would vote against the PCC anyway. They always do. Unless they'd want to sabotage the whole thing, which wouldn't fly in Quebec. So does it matter if the Bloc is officially part of the coalition or not?

Anyway, I almost want a PCC minority just to see how things would unfold. It'd be fascinating to watch. I also think we'd see better cooperation between the Liberals and the NDP in that scenario than if one or the other wins a minority.

 

[Walpurgis]

send my regards to Gilles

LMAO

 

[Deleted member 126221]

LMAO

I might be dumb (hey, I'm a québécois after all), but I don't get it.

 

[jstripes]

In gutter's defense, Adscam wasn't nearly as bad as it initially seemed. Once you look past the sensationalistic testimony, they actual amount was extremely low.

The Conservatives managed to one-up AdScam, as far as I'm concerned. How much money did they waste on billboards, commercials, train wraps, etc. advertising their "Economic Action Plan"?

At least AdScam had the goal of promoting national unity. The EAP ads are just self-promotion.

 

[jstripes]

1) His party gets 35% of the vote and the NDP/Liberals split so perfectly that the CPC ekes out an incredibly slim minority.

That's now how our system works.

35% of the vote can get you a majority if you win the right amount of seats.

 

[Deleted member 126221]

At least AdScam had the goal of promoting national unity. The EAP ads are just self-promotion.

I'm probably gonna get crucified for this one too, but why is "national unity" such an important and noble goal that it's okay to break the law for it?

 

[matthewwhatever]

Barring a major scandal destroying both the PLC and NDP at the same time, is there anyway Harper can be Prime minister again in october? The chances of the Cons getting a majority is almost nil at this point. If they get a minority, the NDP and PLC have no choice but to work together, if only to be in control of when the next election will be. Both parties will be broke so they can't let the Cons have any say in that. Not only that, but if either Mulcair or Trudeau refuse to form a coalition and let Harper govern, he'll probably be destroyed in the polls because of the gigantic Anybody-but-Harper crowd shifting its support to the other party.

Harper gets first chance at forming government, since he's the sitting PM. It would be highly unusual for him to stay in power if another party has the most seats, but he's still entitled to try. It's only happened once before -- see the 1925 election, which led to the 1926 King-Byng affair, and yes I am a huge nerd, thanks for asking -- but that's enough for a precedent for him to be able to go to the GG to ask if he can try.

It would look desperate, for sure, but if there's anything Harper has proven, it's that he values staying in power above all else. He could try to force the Liberals and NDP to bring him down over something popular, and then hope that the Governor General doesn't turn around and ask the opposition party (or parties, depending on how many seats they all have) to form government. If that happens, we get another election, and depending on when that is no one else would have the money to run a campaign.

It wouldn't shock me if he tried that. Both the Liberals and the NDP have vowed to change the voting system, and that has the potential to relegate the Conservatives to permanent opposition status -- especially if we get the Liberals and their preferential voting system.

So shorter version: Harper still being PM wouldn't be shocking. Unfortunate, yes, but never underestimate a party with a devoted voter base and more money than they know what to do with.

 

[gutter_trash]

I might be dumb (hey, I'm a québécois after all), but I don't get it.

some of the best Canadian Prime Ministers are from Quebec and I am hoping that the son of a great Prime Minister from Quebec becomes Prime Ministers himself

 

[Deleted member 126221]

What I didn't get was why "send my regards to Gilles" made Walpurgis laugh his ass out.

I'm well aware of your unconditional love of Trudeau, Chrétien, Martin and co, thank you.

 

[Pedrito]

That's now how our system works.

35% of the vote can get you a majority if you win the right amount of seats.

I think he meant "incredibly slim majority".

 

[killer rin]

Harper gets first chance at forming government, since he's the sitting PM. It would be highly unusual for him to stay in power if another party has the most seats, but he's still entitled to try. It's only happened once before -- see the 1925 election, which led to the 1926 King-Byng affair, and yes I am a huge nerd, thanks for asking -- but that's enough for a precedent for him to be able to go to the GG to ask if he can try.

It would look desperate, for sure, but if there's anything Harper has proven, it's that he values staying in power above all else. He could try to force the Liberals and NDP to bring him down over something popular, and then hope that the Governor General doesn't turn around and ask the opposition party (or parties, depending on how many seats they all have) to form government. If that happens, we get another election, and depending on when that is no one else would have the money to run a campaign.

It wouldn't shock me if he tried that. Both the Liberals and the NDP have vowed to change the voting system, and that has the potential to relegate the Conservatives to permanent opposition status -- especially if we get the Liberals and their preferential voting system.

So shorter version: Harper still being PM wouldn't be shocking. Unfortunate, yes, but never underestimate a party with a devoted voter base and more money than they know what to do with.

The money issues isn't the only thing. I'd think that the Canadian Population would be pretty pissed if they were called back to vote after a couple months or a year in power. In that case, you could see votes potentially collapsing for whoever filed the motion of non-confidence and the party in charge. Elections can be pretty tiring on all parties involved and there needs to be some sort of lengthy break between them to properly cooldown. Especially given that this is the Longest Election since the early 1900's

But on the PR Voting System, unless Harper can manage out a Majority on this, isn't it pretty much guarenteed we'll be changing it. Liberals want it changed, NDP wants it changed. Greens want it changed. Not sure about BQ, but I'd assume they would also want it changed.

 

[Kifimbo]

New Ekos:

NDP: 31.8% (-2.0%)
CPC: 30.4% (+0.3%)
LPC: 24.2% (+0.8%)
Green: 7.3% (+1.2%)
Bloc: 4.2% (-0.5%)

http://ipolitics.ca/2015/08/14/the-...s-still-struggling-to-break-free-of-deadlock/

 

[gutter_trash]

The money issues isn't the only thing. I'd think that the Canadian Population would be pretty pissed if they were called back to vote after a couple months or a year in power. In that case, you could see votes potentially collapsing for whoever filed the motion of non-confidence and the party in charge. Elections can be pretty tiring on all parties involved and there needs to be some sort of lengthy break between them to properly cooldown. Especially given that this is the Longest Election since the early 1900's

But on the PR Voting System, unless Harper can manage out a Majority on this, isn't it pretty much guarenteed we'll be changing it. Liberals want it changed, NDP wants it changed. Greens want it changed. Not sure about BQ, but I'd assume they would also want it changed.

even if the Liberals and NDP want it changed, they don't agree on which model to change it to

 

[Silexx]

FYI, if the Cons get a minority government, Harper is going to resign.

 

[gutter_trash]

FYI, if the Cons get a minority government, Harper is going to resign.

Nope.
Harper will resign if he wins a majority (pass the torch) or if he loses

Harper will stay if he wins a minority because he doesn't want his party to be caught with their pants down during a No Confidence vote while looking for a new leader

 

[gabbo]

even if the Liberals and NDP want it changed, they don't agree on which model to change it to

So long as it doesn't become a budget issue, compromises could be made.

 

[killer rin]

even if the Liberals and NDP want it changed, they don't agree on which model to change it to

True. The Liberals want it to be done through a non-partisan panel and the NDP is straight MMP because of the report which was issued a little over a decade ago. If it came down to it and the liberals didn't play ball, i'm sure the NDP will agree to go along with that request because if a report issued by the government said MMP, it's likely a second one wouldn't change all that much and would probably refrence the old report

 

[CitizenVectron]

That's now how our system works.

35% of the vote can get you a majority if you win the right amount of seats.

I think he meant "incredibly slim majority".

Yes, I meant majority, sorry for the typo.

 

[CitizenVectron]

True. The Liberals want it to be done through a non-partisan panel and the NDP is straight MMP because of the report which was issued a little over a decade ago. If it came down to it and the liberals didn't play ball, i'm sure the NDP will agree to go along with that request because if a report issued by the government said MMP, it's likely a second one wouldn't change all that much and would probably refrence the old report

Yeah if they form a formal coalition/accord then I imagine they would both decide to form a committee to recommend a model, and then adopt it with a vote in parliament. MMP is the most likely option since it fulfils the 2 goals of representative democracy (I think):

1) Proportional representation of parties based on number of national votes
2) Local elected candidates, so not just party cronies chosen off a list.

And if you want you can even for a local NDP candidate and a regional Liberal candidate off a list, if you like them in particular.

 

[gutter_trash]

whatever model brings Conservative rule to an end is fine with me

 

[CitizenVectron]

whatever model brings Conservative rule to an end if fine with me

It wouldn't bring it to an end by any means, it would simply moderate some parties and force others to form (since under MMP & PR all parties that can get even a few % of the vote get seats).

The current Conservatives might only get 30% of the seats, but maybe a new PC-type party forms and gets another 15% by taking away blue Liberals and other moderates. It's possible that the Liberals (say they had 25%) could agree to form a 3-way coalition with the CPC & PC in that case, with a more moderate policy plan.

PR doesn't mean they'll never be in power again, it just means they'll never hold absolute power like they do now.

 

[Azih]

even if the Liberals and NDP want it changed, they don't agree on which model to change it to

Nearly half of the Liberal caucus voted for an NDP motion to implement PR before the session of parliament ended. There's a lot of pro PR Liberals. Too bad they're not in Trudeau's inner circle.

 

[mo60]

There are only 2 ways Harper continues to be Prime Minister after the election:

1) His party gets 35% of the vote and the NDP/Liberals split so perfectly that the CPC ekes out an incredibly slim majority.

2) He has a strong minority and the Block holds the balance of power, not the Liberals or Greens. If that is the case, then it would be hard for the Liberals and NDP to try to form a coalition because they'd also need the backing of the Bloc, and that is what tanked the 2008 attempted coalition.

The bloc will only get one or two seats during this election most likely so unless the conservatives get 168 or 169 seats they can't really work with the bloc to form government. They can still can get a shot to form government, but bills may be harder to pass because both the liberals and NDP combined should end up above 170 seats and I'm not sure if the liberals and/or NDP will support all the bills the government tries to pass.

 

[maharg]

New poll. This time from Leger (national, not just Quebec).

33/28/27.
NDP/LPC/CPC

Spoiler

Time to start talking about that LPC/CPC vote splitting!

http://m.ledevoir.com/#article-447699

 

[BigJonsson]

New poll. This time from Leger (national, not just Quebec).

33/28/27.
NDP/LPC/CPC

Spoiler

Time to start talking about that LPC/CPC vote splitting!

http://m.ledevoir.com/#article-447699

Polls seem to be all over the place lol

 

[Holmes]

Yeah but my poll is up with the NDP leading.

 

[gabbo]

The bloc will only get one or two seats during this election most likely so unless the conservatives get 168 or 169 seats they can't really work with the bloc to form government. They can still can get a shot to form government, but bills may be harder to pass because both the liberals and NDP combined should end up above 170 seats and I'm not sure if the liberals and/or NDP will support all the bills the government tries to pass.

Unlikely, without some heavy revisions

 

[MMarston]

So this pretty much my first election voting, but does anyone know the process on how one can vote waaaay earlier than October (as in now)? Because I'm pretty sure that's a thing.

This is just in case I end up making my mind sooner than then.

 

[Popstar]

So this pretty much my first election voting, but does anyone know the process on how one can vote waaaay earlier than October (as in now)? Because I'm pretty sure that's a thing.

This is just in case I end up making my mind sooner than then.

http://www.elections.ca/content2.aspx?section=vote&document=index&lang=e

 

[mo60]

New poll. This time from Leger (national, not just Quebec).

33/28/27.
NDP/LPC/CPC

Spoiler

Time to start talking about that LPC/CPC vote splitting!

http://m.ledevoir.com/#article-447699

Even if the LPC and CPC end up vote splitting and the results are somewhat similar to that Leger national poll you posted on election day the CPC will end up with a way higher seat total compared to the Liberals(20-30 seats higher probably).I expect the CPC to get at least 110 seats and maybe as high as 130 seats if they get 28% of the vote on election day since their base is very efficient at voting compared to ther Liberals and NDP's base.

 

[maharg]

Even if the LPC and CPC end up vote splitting and the results are somewhat similar to that Leger national poll you posted on election day the CPC will end up with a way higher seat total compared to the Liberals(20-30 seats higher probably).I expect the CPC to get at least 110 seats and maybe as high as 130 seats if they get 28% of the vote on election day since their base is very efficient at voting compared to ther Liberals and NDP's base.

I'm actually mocking the concept of vote splitting in general here, fyi. Not that it doesn't exist in some way, but that it's more dynamic than people seem to think.

However, it would be astounding if FPTP produced results so even with two parties sitting 5% below the leading party. One of those parties would almost certainly be squeezed out in that situation.

 

[gutter_trash]

New poll. This time from Leger (national, not just Quebec).

33/28/27.
NDP/LPC/CPC

Spoiler

Time to start talking about that LPC/CPC vote splitting!

http://m.ledevoir.com/#article-447699

http://www.journaldemontreal.com/2015/08/15/mulcair-en-tete-trudeau-monte#livefyre

Same Leger poll

NDP remains steady in the lead, Liberals get bumped up to 2nd while Conservatives dip down to 3rd place.

Regional Breakdown:

- - - - ATL- QC- ON MBSK AL- BC
NDP 36% 40% 31% 21% 23% 36%
LPC 41% 21% 31% 33% 22% 26%
CPC 15% 17% 30% 36% 46% 23%
GPC 8% 1% 5% 8% 8% 13%
B Q 21% - - - -

 

[Silexx]

Ontario suddenly in a three-way tie. Gonna be interesting.

 

[CitizenVectron]

The only section of that poll that should be taken with a grain of salt is the SK/MB column. Polls have been all over the place for SK and MB this election due to small sample sizes. Usually it's CPC-NDP-LPC, and in this case the LPC and NDP have switched places, which would be unusual considering the normal higher numbers of NDP in SK. Not to say such a shift was impossible, only that the results for SK/MB in this poll seem to be an outlier (probably due to low sample size).

 

[gutter_trash]

Conservatives.... 3rd party status.... believe!!

 

[CitizenVectron]

The LPC and NDP would both need to beat the CPC by 5% federally to get more seats in the house. The CPC could quit easily place 3rd in vote count but 1st in seat count due to concentration. The NDP have some concentration so fair a bit better in a direct match up (due to concentration in Quebec and BC and cities), while the LPC has a tougher time due to their relatively even spread of votes across a few regions, and only major concentration in Atlantic Canada which has fewer seats.

Honestly if the CPC can get 30% of the vote then I expect them to take 1st in seat count.

 

[SRG01]

The only section of that poll that should be taken with a grain of salt is the SK/MB column. Polls have been all over the place for SK and MB this election due to small sample sizes. Usually it's CPC-NDP-LPC, and in this case the LPC and NDP have switched places, which would be unusual considering the normal higher numbers of NDP in SK. Not to say such a shift was impossible, only that the results for SK/MB in this poll seem to be an outlier (probably due to low sample size).

Was listening to Eric Grenier on The House this morning, and got the impression that most of the new urban ridings would go to the NDP.

 

[maharg]

The LPC and NDP would both need to beat the CPC by 5% federally to get more seats in the house. The CPC could quit easily place 3rd in vote count but 1st in seat count due to concentration. The NDP have some concentration so fair a bit better in a direct match up (due to concentration in Quebec and BC and cities), while the LPC has a tougher time due to their relatively even spread of votes across a few regions, and only major concentration in Atlantic Canada which has fewer seats.

Honestly if the CPC can get 30% of the vote then I expect them to take 1st in seat count.

3 way races in FPTP have a tendency to get weird. You're awfully sure of what would happen in a scenario that has literally never happened in Canadian federal politics.

If the CPC have actually lost more than 10 points it's really unlikely that their efficiencies are the same as last time. Really really unlikely.

 

[jstripes]

Conservatives.... 3rd party status.... believe!!

That'd be nice. Maybe it would lead to a Reform/PC schism.

 

[Mr.Mike]

That'd be nice. Maybe it would lead to a Reform/PC schism.

I could see this. There's a bunch of social conservatives who've been voting for the CPC and then not having the CPC actually do anything they want (because it would be political suicide of course, but still). Although maybe they're just mostly concerned with not letting the other two parties in to implement more socially progressive legislation, and are happy to have Harper sitting around maintaining the status quo.

 

[Spl1nter]

So I have decided to campaign for the Liberals, specifically Micheal Levitt in York Centre. Saw and shook hands with Trudeau today at Downsview Park. He needs to go into more detail for policy if he wants to shake the lack of depth opinion on him. It is already written and detailed for him.

Based on early experience the OLP has somewhat fucked over the LPC in the GTA, expected.

Fun moment of the day: Someone came into the campaign office this morning asking to speak to the candidate, but he was out canvassing already. Called us an anti-Semitic party and a bunch of other shit. That was interesting.

 

[S-Wind]

If the NDP end up with the most seats, what are the odds of the Liberals and Conservatives forming a coalition?

And how well do you think the idea of said coalition would go over with the general public?

 

[SRG01]

If the NDP end up with the most seats, what are the odds of the Liberals and Conservatives forming a coalition?

Zero chance. The Conservatives have demonized the Liberals and Trudeau so much that they'd literally have to remove every incumbent CPC member and start anew for that to happen.

 

[Azih]

If the NDP end up with the most seats, what are the odds of the Liberals and Conservatives forming a coalition?

And how well do you think the idea of said coalition would go over with the general public?

What SRG said. Plus they'd be in bed with a party that hates their guts and looking to force an election to get their majority back. And completely demoralize their rank and file and supporters who are on record with preferring a NDP coalition.

 

[matthewwhatever]

What SRG said. Plus they'd be in bed with a party that hates their guts and looking to force an election to get their majority back. And completely demoralize their rank and file and supporters who are on record with preferring a NDP coalition.

...and a lot of those rank and file supporters can barely tolerate the NDP. So basically, however unlikely a Liberal-NDP coalition is, multiply that by several orders of magnitude of unlikeliness, and then you get the probability of a Liberal-Conservative coalition.

If the Liberals are in a position of being the third party power brokers, I don't think they'd officially be a coalition with anyone. Like Trudeau has always said, they'd offer support on an issue-by-issue basis, which seems appropriate. The UK offers a pretty good example of why it sucks being the junior partner in a formal coalition, and I don't think the Liberals want to emulate that.

3 way races in FPTP have a tendency to get weird. You're awfully sure of what would happen in a scenario that has literally never happened in Canadian federal politics.

If the CPC have actually lost more than 10 points it's really unlikely that their efficiencies are the same as last time. Really really unlikely.

I'm skeptical of the Conservatives losing 10 points, but everything about the possibility still makes me feel giddy. At sub-30, they start getting into Reform/Alliance territory, especially with their vote getting that bump from all those extra/useless votes in Alberta. If their vote really does fall, who knows what happens.

 

[GSG Flash]

A Liberal-PC coalition may have been possible, but the Conservatives are too far right wing ideologically so there's no chance.

 

[MMarston]

I don't think a CPC/Liberal coalition will be viable either, especially with how much Conservatives have been trying to run that party's reputation to the ground lately. Not only will the LPC keep distrusting them, but that's kind of a slap in the face to Conservative supporters who bought into that line of thinking.

 

[matthewwhatever]

Fun trivia: when Sir John A first became Prime Minister, it was under the banner of the Liberal-Conservative party.

 

[SRG01]

...and a lot of those rank and file supporters can barely tolerate the NDP. So basically, however unlikely a Liberal-NDP coalition is, multiply that by several orders of magnitude of unlikeliness, and then you get the probability of a Liberal-Conservative coalition.

If the Liberals are in a position of being the third party power brokers, I don't think they'd officially be a coalition with anyone. Like Trudeau has always said, they'd offer support on an issue-by-issue basis, which seems appropriate. The UK offers a pretty good example of why it sucks being the junior partner in a formal coalition, and I don't think the Liberals want to emulate that.

I remember when the UK coalition government first formed years ago that commentators were saying the junior partner often gets screwed because the larger partner usually ends up with all the credit.

 

[gutter_trash]

I remember when the UK coalition government first formed years ago that commentators were saying the junior partner often gets screwed because the larger partner usually ends up with all the credit.

And the junior party bleeds support and draws ire from their base.