And gets all the negativity associated with their coalition partners + the extra shit that comes with propping them up.
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Canadian General Election (OT) - #elxn42: October 19, 2015
- Thread starter matthewwhatever
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And gets all the negativity associated with their coalition partners + the extra shit that comes with propping them up.
gutter_trash
Banned
a follow up Leger's poll in seat projection:
http://www.journaldemontreal.com/2015/08/16/le-npd-pourrait-gagner-129-sieges-sur-338
Battle Ontario
http://www.journaldemontreal.com/2015/08/16/le-npd-pourrait-gagner-129-sieges-sur-338
Battle Ontario
AuthenticM
Member
Fucking Ontario
a follow up Leger's poll in seat projection:
http://www.journaldemontreal.com/2015/08/16/le-npd-pourrait-gagner-129-sieges-sur-338
Battle Ontario
I feel like Ontario should be so much more left-leaning. What the fuck
Because industry is in Ontario, and industry is run by big bosses, who make big money, and influence the vote.
a follow up Leger's poll in seat projection:
http://www.journaldemontreal.com/2015/08/16/le-npd-pourrait-gagner-129-sieges-sur-338
Battle Ontario
What? It's a hell of an improvement over the current Ontario seats.
CON: 72 LIB: 11 NDP: 22
You should be encouraging us.
You Are Viewtiful
Member
Just as many Conservatives elected in the Prairies with only half the population. Quit playin'.
Exactly. We almost have as many Liberals than the whole country put together and 2nd most NDP members after Quebec. Ain't no one giving us credit.
Exactly. We almost have as many Liberals than the whole country put together and 2nd most NDP members after Quebec. Ain't no one giving us credit.
PumpkinSpice
Banned
Gigantic sprawling suburbs.
gutter_trash
Banned
self centered suburbanites whose interests end at the edge of their driveways
You Are Viewtiful
Member
If Conservatives get 46 seats, the vast majority of them will be rural. They got 28 seats or so in the provincial election, virtually all rural. So only about 20 of those would be suburban (in reality, they would snatch some rural Eastern ridings before they get to the GTA)
you called?
What's worse, those who vote in their own self interest or those too stupid to realize they're voting against their own self interest?
The people who try to trick them into voting against their own self interest.
Quit cheating, that wasn't one of the options.
Yea, well, like, improve faster Ontario.
You Are Viewtiful
Member
Anyone else realize that Léger has Conservatives at 3rd in Ontario in vote count but 1st in seats? We need to get rid of this silly electoral system and fast. It makes my brain hurt.
YUP!
ASSUMING that the NDP keep their promise to bring in proportional representation, I wish all Green voters would realize that and vote NDP. That way, proportional representation will happen and the Green Party will get more seats in future elections than they ever would otherwise.
There are also the added bonuses of no more wasted votes and right wing parties never having absolute power ever again!
CreeperBlocks
Banned
catpurrcat
Member
Will be in a room of ten people, and ask them their voting intentions, 3 will be CPC, 3 will be lib, 3 will be NDP, and 1 will say "don't care" and then proceed to talk about how terrible their life is.
So yeah, ONT is truly split right now.
PumpkinSpice
Banned
I'd probably vote Green if we had PR and I'm going to vote liberal since they're probably way more likely to win in my riding. I really wanted to vote Green in the last Ontario provincial election but Tim Hudak gave me nightmares!
matthewwhatever
Member
A lot of Conservative support in Ontario last time around was less pro-Conservative than it was anti-NDP. It may not be unreasonable to think that if the momentum really does start going against Harper, then all those votes will be up for grab for the Liberals. Obviously, some will stay Conservative out of habit/conviction, but if that CPC base starts turning against them -- especially in the GTA -- things could get interesting in a hurry.
I'm also curious about the Green vote. They've been all over the place in polls, and I know they're looking to BC to pick up a few more seats. (And speaking of Green MPs, they picked up one in Quebec! Though he won't be running as an incumbent, since his riding ceased to exist. It'll be interesting to see how he and Bruce Hyer do, since they were both elected as NDPers but crossed the floor.)
In unrelated news, I loved seeing the pictures from Montreal Pride today.
Gilles Duceppe:
Elizabeth May:
Justin Trudeau:
Thomas Mulcair:
(Mulcair apparently had a umbrella guy, which led to this being tweeted:
)
And, of course, Stephen Harper:
Ah, right. Harper and the Conservatives don't actually go to Pride Parades, because who ever heard of community outreach? It's not like there are gay conservatives anyway.
catpurrcat
Member
Not really. Its very diverse. Hard for any party to generalize the entire province, its really big in population and diverse in industry (esp the GTA).
Seriously, You'll find middle aged socially conservative urban apartment dwellers at the lower income scale. On the flip side, those same buildings will have Gen Y grads who are the opposite.
Neighborhoods of formerly rich seniors now on fixed incomes. Who do they vote for? Each party offers them something.
Blue collar (skilled trades for example) making top 5% wages but hard to get a job in those areas now, who do they vote for? You will get three different answers.
Places with a union history, with manufacturing leaving and service jobs coming in (both high and low end, but not much in the middle). Who does that constituency vote for?
The analytics folks must be having fun trying to find common threads among voters here.
a follow up Leger's poll in seat projection:
http://www.journaldemontreal.com/2015/08/16/le-npd-pourrait-gagner-129-sieges-sur-338
Battle Ontario
NDP government with Liberal opposition would be a dream. I hope Harper's sex tapes leak.
CreeperBlocks
Banned
I never understood why Harper never goes to Gay Pride Parades. Is he afraid of the LGBT Community? Who Knows.
gutter_trash
Banned
Harper needs to post more pictures with kittens to save his campaign.
Every cat picture of his actually makes me like him for 30 seconds
Every cat picture of his actually makes me like him for 30 seconds
Isn't he afraid of basically everyone?
Would offend his base
gutter_trash
Banned
I see that Mulcair is unable to sustain his fake smile in scorching heat.
God, mayor Coderre fully decked out in dark clothing and blazer on a scorcher day
God, mayor Coderre fully decked out in dark clothing and blazer on a scorcher day
I mean, one of the first things he did as PM was try to reopen the debate of same sex marriage.
Maybe he isn't so much worried about his "base," and his beliefs, but his safety- since he's very obsessed with that. Safety, security, safety, security.
I don't think that comparision holds in any way. I mean Alberta is where the Conservatives are strongest and nobody's saying anything about that.
Ontario really is like a whole country within a country.
It's hard to explain.
Same reason as Ford.
Oh my god. He looks like he's having a heart attack.
At this time I don't think a Liberal x Conservative coalition is likely even though there's a fair degree of overlap in their supporters*. In the UK the Conservative x Lib Dem coalition did not go well for the Lib Dems, and the Liberals will have that on their minds. Perhaps if the NDP win and rule for some 10 years, keeping the Libs and Conservatives out, the Liberals will start to consider it.
If the NDP totally renege on their promise to implement proportional representation and continue to rule under FPTP I think a sort of merger of elements of the Liberal party and Conservative party is very likely. This would create the exact sort of two party system already present in BC where the BC Liberals are a big tent party free market establishment business party that is usually very Conservative but occasionally implements some left wing policy. I very much hope this doesn't happen.
* I think I read a poll stating 20-30% of Liberal supporters would rather have a Conservative Minority government than a NDP lead NDP/Lib coalition
If the NDP totally renege on their promise to implement proportional representation and continue to rule under FPTP I think a sort of merger of elements of the Liberal party and Conservative party is very likely. This would create the exact sort of two party system already present in BC where the BC Liberals are a big tent party free market establishment business party that is usually very Conservative but occasionally implements some left wing policy. I very much hope this doesn't happen.
* I think I read a poll stating 20-30% of Liberal supporters would rather have a Conservative Minority government than a NDP lead NDP/Lib coalition
gutter_trash
Banned
BC Liberals are not Liberals and are not affiliated with the LPC
the BC Liberals are a merger of 3rd place Liberals with the Social Credit.
The Social Credit was a populist, regionalist Conservative party and that is what the BC Liberals absorbed.
I have friends from BC who are have the BAD HABIT of mixing provincial parties with federal parties.
I know all this....
I'm bringing up the BC Liberals to show that the concept of a right wing party merging with right leaning Liberals can happen, has happened already in BC, and it could happen in the future.
I actually don't think this is very likely, but if for whatever reason Canada ever became a two party FPTP state, it would probably look a lot like BC.
gutter_trash
Banned
just because they got their worst results in 2011 since Confederation doesn't mean that they are desperate.
the UK's Lib-Dems is an aweful comparaison since the Lib-Dems have not been succesful in the UK since the turn of the 20th Century and have fell to perpetual 3rd placee.
Not the case with the Federal Liberals.
Read my post again...
EDIT: Maybe I'm not being clear enough, but basically
1. I don't think a merger or coalition is likely in the near term.
2. There exist scenarios where it would become likely
3. Those scenarios require the Cons and Libs to be losing for a long time and be desperate. (ie. What happened in BC)
gutter_trash
Banned
BC was like many decades of 3rd place loserdom, not 10 years.
the Conservatives are too ideologically incompatible with the Liberals. Gay marriage, war, bilingualism, energy, 1st Nations issues etc
the Conservatives are too ideologically incompatible with the Liberals. Gay marriage, war, bilingualism, energy, 1st Nations issues etc
haha no.
It actually only took one election cycle for Social Credit to give up and merge with the BC Liberals after Social Credit's epic collapse.
It's worth noting that the combined Social Credit/BC Liberal party, the BC Liberals, have been incredibly successful, and have been in power for 14 years and counting. If either the Liberals or Conservatives ever find themselves near wiped out and defeated, that's another reason to consider merging.
Dr.Guru of Peru
played the long game
Blame Ontario. I think they even have a nursery rhyme for it out there.
gutter_trash
Banned
matthewwhatever
Member
Same reason as Ford.
On the one hand, he looks like a awkward, sullen child having a heart attack.
On the other hand, at least he's there. I don't think that could ever be said for Harper.
That doesn't shock me. As much as I want Harper gone, I'm not sure I'd prefer having Mulcair as PM. Now, if someone like Nathan Cullen had won the leadership contest a few years ago, I'd probably be a little more in favour of it.
I hope we never get any kind of merger, though. I like having more than two options, and feel like the US example shows how bad things can get when you only have two viable choices. Besides, I've already had one of my political parties get swallowed up, and I really don't want to have to go through that again. Though based on that isidewith quiz, maybe I'd just turn to the Communist Party as my natural political home.
That's really what's made a die hard PR activist for a freaking decade now (HAY GUYS. DONATE TO FAIR VOTE CANADA GUYS). The PROGRESSIVE Conservative party is really a large part of why Canada is as awesome a country as it is and for FPTP to have destroyed that party by converting 2 million votes into 2 seats leading it to being absorbed by the regressive wing of the old party has been devastating. AV/IRV (Trudeau's preferred system) would have probably done the exact same thing.
FPTP and AV both exaggerate the strength of regional parties and disadvantage parties with broad support which don't have any 'regional bases' of concentrated support.
Elect the NDP. Get PR in. And then we can vote for any party we want that's Green or larger anywhere in the country and not have to worry about safe seats or any of that bullshit.
FPTP and AV both exaggerate the strength of regional parties and disadvantage parties with broad support which don't have any 'regional bases' of concentrated support.
Elect the NDP. Get PR in. And then we can vote for any party we want that's Green or larger anywhere in the country and not have to worry about safe seats or any of that bullshit.
Nah, that wasn't Pride proper, it was just an opening ceremony at City Hall that he legally had to attend.
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