CyclopsRock
Member
The biggest teams in Wales play in the English leagues. Monaco play in Ligue 1. It's not crazy.
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Catalonia to split from Spain within 48 hours of secession vote
- Thread starter LordOfLore
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The biggest teams in Wales play in the English leagues. Monaco play in Ligue 1. It's not crazy.
gutter_trash
Banned
they will remain in La Liga. Too much money involved, especially on Clasico matches
We will see in exactly 2 weeks. Let's hope for the better anyway
If I'm Madrid I don't do anything. Let them have their farce of a referendum and then crush them economically through EU mechanisms.
Business
Member
Don't mix things up, the government is pro independence but the push is for a referendum, the level of support for a referendum is +70%. The majority of the Catalan people want to vote, then we will see what happens.
Wales is part of UK and didn't separate recently, Monaco is one club. Next.
YourMaster
Member
Of course, because people who want to live in their own country need to be economically crushed. Same with the UK, better make sure they suffer instead of prosper, even if it comes at some cost to ourselves.
That's not to say that everybody who wants their country should get it, but still,....
Madrid doing nothing will see Catalonia bankrupt itself. I mean voting to make yourself poorer and then asking for help is fucking comical beyond belief then again Nationalism doesn't require people to think critically.
Like I said before, breathtaking stupidity.
You've always seemed plugged into corporate thinking/culture in the Brexit threads. Do you think companies in the area are nervous over the Catalonia referendum?
The Living Tribunal
Member
You poor thing. Point on the doll where Spain hurt you.
It won't happen, and it really saddens me how easily the catalonian people are being played.
Tax management? Border control? The rest of things are in the hands of your autonomous government.
CyclopsRock
Member
Lol. "Next". Sorry, sir. I don't see why it matters that Monaco is one club. We're talking about Barcelona and Valencia joining La Liga here. But OK, fine: Ireland have a united Rugby team - a country wrenched apart which had very explosive, body-count worthy de facto civil war going on until about 15 years ago, yet they've had a united Rugby team for decades. They also share a domestic league.
Can you give some examples of what has Spain done to Catalonia?
marcbret87
Member
I am not mixing things up. To push for a referendum the Catalan government needs to be able to enforce the result. And, as it currently stands, even if there was to be a yes vote, I don't quite see how the government in Barcelona be able to start acting like an independent state with the opposition of the Madrid government. As I said before, would people and big business suddenly start paying taxes to La Generalitat? Would the state workers stop working for Madrid and listen to the Catalan government? Besides, a referendum like that, even if it ends up happening somehow, is likely to be a repeat of the 9-N: an 80% yes vote with 40% turnout, that nobody is going to give credit to.
DarthMasta
Member
This football talk, depends on how any theoretical independence goes forward. Friendly or unfriendly matters...
Valencia? Ok. You don't know what're you talking about.
We're talking about an illegal referendum not accepted by government of Spain and most of Spanish people. You want Spanish league accept clubs of a country not belonging of the EU and the Spanish government isn't going to say anything on this subject. Probably Moroccan clubs would have more acceptance.
Every week there will be dozens of matches between Catalonian and Spanish clubs where we know football supporters are most 'civilized' people of Earth.
There are many more reasons but I'm tired of this subject. Last time I answer this thread. I don't enter on NeoGAF to speak about this too.
Funky Papa
FUNK-Y-PPA-4
Most Catalonians want to hold a referendum (it doesn't even have to be a binding one), but support towards independentism is considerably lower (and as a matter of fact, it's been decreasing as of late). Simply put, not all people who want to a hold a referendum to end this situation are actually pro-independence. Official numbers from the Catalonian government:
Of course, pro-independence parties have been making their damnedest to conflate both notions since that works in their favour (and riles up Spanish conservatives even more, which in turn give separatists more ammunition). Hell, I'm sure plenty of people from other regions would like to hold a referendum just so we can move onto different, more important things.
Anyway, there's been some talk about the similarities with Brexit. One that barely gets any attention in the media and that I find particularly interesting is the way the pro-independence vote is spread around Catalonia. Here's a population density map and another showing the regions governed by pro-independence parties as per the 2015 elections.
A redder shade means a larger per cent of pro-independence votes. Population density is based on older data, but it's not like this is something that can change drastically over a few years, so let's consider it current.
So basically, the brunt of the pro-independence votes are located inland, which is mostly rural. Pro-independence vote wans out in coastal, more populated areas. This is hardly a coincidence. It shouldn't shocking to see that no party wants to point it out since there's no way you can weaponize that information without committing political suicide.
The population density map also shows why pro-independence parties don't want to talk about a referendum in which each individual region gets to decide if it breaks apart from Spain or remains part of it. It's bad enough for them to imagine losing Aran (located in the upper left of the map and home to a distinct, ancient culture) - imagine trying to build a new independent Catalonia without Barcelona. It's all or nothing. So much for their liberal views on democracy and the right to chose, I guess.
Bizarrely, the economy of those inland regions would be devastated if Catalonia were to declare independence and exited from the EU, as the agricultural sector would be cut out from European funding and hit by tariffs along industrial exports. This is another tidbit that gets tossed away the second the conversation moves towards factual stuff. In the minds and hearts of so many pro-independence voters, Catalonia is an industrial powerhouse that will be able to trade freely with other nations and will fluourish once free from the Spanish yoke. Alas (and this is something that is only sparsely mentioned) Catalonia trades more with the neighbouring region of Aragon than it does with France and Germany. And that's being part of the European Union already.
So even in the highly unlikely, extremely generous event of the region declaring independence, Spain accepting it for untold reasons and the new country being recognized by the international community, trade would take a massive hit. Some official figures follow:
Those are Catalonian exports from January to May 2017. I ignored exports towards the ASEAN, AME and American markets since they are much smaller, but you can find them in the PDF if you want to research them.
The reported numbers show that Catalonia trades a heck of a lot more with the rest of Spain than it does with the rEU. So there goes the notion of replacing Spanish money with more rEU trade.
It should also be noted that Spain and the EU (and yes, Catalonia too) would have to revert to tariffs until a new trade deal is agreed, which would take years and would require to avoid the Spanish veto along probably other member states' (since this would be a highly contentious topic for powerplayers with their own separatists movements such as France).
So basically this means that the economic prospects of a newly independent Catalonia are throughly fucked despite the "we can have our cake and eat it" propaganda from Puigdemont and their ilk, whom are still trying to push the absurd notion of Catalonia being able to leave Spain and becoming the EU's newest, most prosperous member because of reasons. At best, it'd be hasting for a comparatively diminute trade deal with the UK. And that'd be post-Brexit.
Only the CUP kind of aknowledges this, but that's mostly because they are a no fucks given anticapitalist, eurosceptic and accelerationist party, so even if they don't want to talk too much about it, lest not scare the voters away, they are more than okay with that outcome. Tabula rasa and all that.
Frankly, I used to be against a referendum, but it's has become clear that there needs to be one just so we can put this behind. It's time. But an illegal referendum with no official census, that doesn't follow the basic guidelines of the Venetian Commission, has no basic requirements for participation, that doesn't guarantee impartiality and that cannot result in a viable independent nation as pro-independence parties pretend, will not only accentuate the current polarisation of the nation's politics; it's a throughly irresponsible idea.
P31: Do you want and independent Catalonia - P79: Are you in favour of a referendum? - P81: Vote intention for the referendum | Sí (yes), Sí però acordat (yes, but an agreed one), No (no).
Of course, pro-independence parties have been making their damnedest to conflate both notions since that works in their favour (and riles up Spanish conservatives even more, which in turn give separatists more ammunition). Hell, I'm sure plenty of people from other regions would like to hold a referendum just so we can move onto different, more important things.
Anyway, there's been some talk about the similarities with Brexit. One that barely gets any attention in the media and that I find particularly interesting is the way the pro-independence vote is spread around Catalonia. Here's a population density map and another showing the regions governed by pro-independence parties as per the 2015 elections.
A redder shade means a larger per cent of pro-independence votes. Population density is based on older data, but it's not like this is something that can change drastically over a few years, so let's consider it current.
So basically, the brunt of the pro-independence votes are located inland, which is mostly rural. Pro-independence vote wans out in coastal, more populated areas. This is hardly a coincidence. It shouldn't shocking to see that no party wants to point it out since there's no way you can weaponize that information without committing political suicide.
The population density map also shows why pro-independence parties don't want to talk about a referendum in which each individual region gets to decide if it breaks apart from Spain or remains part of it. It's bad enough for them to imagine losing Aran (located in the upper left of the map and home to a distinct, ancient culture) - imagine trying to build a new independent Catalonia without Barcelona. It's all or nothing. So much for their liberal views on democracy and the right to chose, I guess.
Bizarrely, the economy of those inland regions would be devastated if Catalonia were to declare independence and exited from the EU, as the agricultural sector would be cut out from European funding and hit by tariffs along industrial exports. This is another tidbit that gets tossed away the second the conversation moves towards factual stuff. In the minds and hearts of so many pro-independence voters, Catalonia is an industrial powerhouse that will be able to trade freely with other nations and will fluourish once free from the Spanish yoke. Alas (and this is something that is only sparsely mentioned) Catalonia trades more with the neighbouring region of Aragon than it does with France and Germany. And that's being part of the European Union already.
So even in the highly unlikely, extremely generous event of the region declaring independence, Spain accepting it for untold reasons and the new country being recognized by the international community, trade would take a massive hit. Some official figures follow:
Those are Catalonian exports from January to May 2017. I ignored exports towards the ASEAN, AME and American markets since they are much smaller, but you can find them in the PDF if you want to research them.
The reported numbers show that Catalonia trades a heck of a lot more with the rest of Spain than it does with the rEU. So there goes the notion of replacing Spanish money with more rEU trade.
It should also be noted that Spain and the EU (and yes, Catalonia too) would have to revert to tariffs until a new trade deal is agreed, which would take years and would require to avoid the Spanish veto along probably other member states' (since this would be a highly contentious topic for powerplayers with their own separatists movements such as France).
So basically this means that the economic prospects of a newly independent Catalonia are throughly fucked despite the "we can have our cake and eat it" propaganda from Puigdemont and their ilk, whom are still trying to push the absurd notion of Catalonia being able to leave Spain and becoming the EU's newest, most prosperous member because of reasons. At best, it'd be hasting for a comparatively diminute trade deal with the UK. And that'd be post-Brexit.
Only the CUP kind of aknowledges this, but that's mostly because they are a no fucks given anticapitalist, eurosceptic and accelerationist party, so even if they don't want to talk too much about it, lest not scare the voters away, they are more than okay with that outcome. Tabula rasa and all that.
Frankly, I used to be against a referendum, but it's has become clear that there needs to be one just so we can put this behind. It's time. But an illegal referendum with no official census, that doesn't follow the basic guidelines of the Venetian Commission, has no basic requirements for participation, that doesn't guarantee impartiality and that cannot result in a viable independent nation as pro-independence parties pretend, will not only accentuate the current polarisation of the nation's politics; it's a throughly irresponsible idea.
marcbret87
Member
Great post, Funky Papa. As a Catalan living abroad, I see most of those things and I understand that independence most likely would be a disaster in the short term. If the UK, the fifth world economy, is likely to struggle after Brexit, imagine Catalonia, that will have to get a new currency or use the Euro without having access to the EU central bank.
The issue is that, when speaking to my relatives, they seem to believe that somehow they will not leave the EU despite the warnings, that all trade agreements will stay the same because "they need us more than them". It is this kind of self-delusion that is the issue here, many people don't realise that at an international no one cares about Catalonia.
The issue is that, when speaking to my relatives, they seem to believe that somehow they will not leave the EU despite the warnings, that all trade agreements will stay the same because "they need us more than them". It is this kind of self-delusion that is the issue here, many people don't realise that at an international no one cares about Catalonia.
deathkiller
Member
I don't see how this situation can be solved. I have always believed that being part of Spain should be something that is not imposed on the regions with their own language (though I hate the idea of adding new borders, I would prefer a federal system with each region being it's own state). The problem is that people who think like me are a minority on Spain.
I also hate how PSOE/PP/Ciudadanos act like the Spaniards have already taken a decision regarding this just because most people vote them. Same thing with Spain being a monarchy, one day they will have to let people vote.
I also hate how PSOE/PP/Ciudadanos act like the Spaniards have already taken a decision regarding this just because most people vote them. Same thing with Spain being a monarchy, one day they will have to let people vote.
Lol, sounds like something a dictatorship would do
curi0usBystander
Member
gutter_trash
Banned
so support is highest in the metro area of Barcelona. And drastically falls off the further you get from that city.
The other way around, first map is overall population density (red is higher) and second support for independence (again red is higher).
Pancake Mix
Copied someone else's pancake recipe
gutter_trash
Banned
ah, okay, LOL
Business
Member
But that's only stating the obvious isn't it, it's natural and desirable that people of both YES and NO support the referendum.
Pro indenpendence parties have not tried to mix both notions, if anything they have been trying to encourage NO parties and voters to engage on the referendum and campaign.
I remember you already pointing this out ages ago on another thread. The idea you have that when you see a map of pro-independence voting intention you also see rural vs metropolitan/industrial split, and that explains the vote intention, is plain wrong.
What you are seeing is the immigration pattern of people from the rest of Spain into Catalunya during the sixties, mainly coming from Andalucia but also Extremadura, Aragon and others, and which settled mainly in Barcelona and it's metropolitan area (already the most populated areas). This immigration is now Catalan, but even today in the third generation you'll find that this is the people that speaks Spanish at home, or do something as silly as supporting Real Madrid. Here's a map showing the percentage of people using Catalan as their everyday language.
Where you see it at the lowest is Barcelona's (and Tarragona's) metropolitan area, and it quite matches your voting intention map, simply because there's more people more emotionally invested in Spain in the area, for historical reasons and besides being more densely populated.
About splitting Catalunya per region on a (per village/comarca?) result... no offence but that's talking nonsense. Can't imagine London suggesting that to Scotland and having say Aberdeen and/or Glasgow remain because the NO vote won there.
As for Vall d'Aran, that's indeed a special region with their own language and history and personally in that case I would be totally fine with them deciding if they want to stay in Catalunya or in Spain.
By the way, I can only wish Spain would have been as commited to Catalan culture and language as Catalunya has been for preserving Aranes in Vall d'Aran.
Catalunya exports a lot more towards the rest of the world than it does to the rest of Spain (62.3% vs 38.7%) if that's worth anything. The gap becomes bigger every year too. Whether or not the trade with Spain decreases because of independence will be Spain's decision. It's worth noting Catalan exports account for 25% of Spain's total.
It's quite cynical that from the Spanish side we get economic doom and gloom because Spain will veto Catalunya in the EU, that's very kind and everyone appreciates it. It will go bad for you because I'll make sure it does is not the most constructive stance. Or that the referendum is illegal (it's not actually illegal it's unconstitutional, which is not the same) because guess what Spain won't allow it. If this referendum is half assed (which it is everyone can see it) it's only because of how the Spanish state has dealt with it. There's no reason for it to be "illegal" but because Spain wants. There's no other reason for the census problem you mention but avoiding legal prosecution by the Spanish courts, it's not that the Catalan authorities don't have a proper one. The Spanish state just keeps digging with such ridiculous actions and more. Seizing electoral propaganda in the street or from the businesses that print it, so far threatening with jail 750 mayors (out of 940) with legal action and even jail if they allow people to vote in their municipalities, making Spanish ISPs ban independentist websites (everyone should be scandalized)... and on and on and on. The thing I can agree with you is a referendum is needed, and one organised with consensus between both parts, but the state must cooperate.
eerik9000
Member
Uh, well, Lithuania (and Latvia) and Estonia were independent countries that fell under opressive foreign occupation during World War II, and the SSRs were always considered as Soviet occupation by the US. What happened in 1991 is the continuation of the states that were formed in the late 1910s. So Catalonia's independence isn't really comparable with the Baltic states in the 1990s.
Westbahnhof
Banned
Please come back and give us your thoughts about losing all EU benefits, such as free movement, trade, or the only currency you got,(afaik).
marcbret87
Member
Sure, it's obvious that historically the situation is very different, I'm just talking about support for independence. With "only" 40% or so of the people supporting secession I don't think you can force this issue
SlipperyFishes
Banned
RocknRola
Member
That probably won't solve anything. Hell, they likely just made it worse, much worse :S
Not sure if this approach is in Madrid's best interest right now.
Westbahnhof
Banned
Ah, the guy who claims that an independent Catalonia will still be in the EU, I think someone said?. Yeah, this will de-escalate things.. /s
A dictatorship would have already killed everyone involved in organizing this referendum.
intheinbetween
Member
This was bound to happen sooner or later, or did you expect the government to do nothing?
They are infringing every order from the central gorvernment, acting on their own, and they should know it has consequences, actually I'm quite sure they are aware of that and they are still playing their cards as intended.
Spuck-uk
Banned
Calalonia has had an independence movement for a reallly long time. It's closer to the scottish independence movement than a brexit situation.
Relaxed Muscle
Member
This only can have a political solution, the actual goverment is using the justice system, a suposed independent power in a democracy for their own purposes.
This have serious neo-fascism tints, but what can you expect of a political party born from fascists.
That will only escalate things. Might even push more people to vote. This way of action is kind of stupid, in my opinion.
RocknRola
Member
That's the thing. This sort of action can (or rather, has the potential to) actually benefit the separatist movement a whole lot more than it would otherwise
intheinbetween
Member
WTF?
I'm not a right party supporter, actually I voted for Podemos (left party), and I'm sorry but this is not how you get independence, this is ilegal, whether you like it or not. We have a legal system and we must comply with the law.
The government is just applying justice, as they are infringing laws and orders and they don't care, so, imo the politicians and people pushing for this ilegal referendum are the ones being fascists. They know what they have to do to get the independence, it isn't easy as first they would need to modify the current consitution, but if they really want independence they will have do their best to do it. But right now, our constitution doesn't recognize the right for auto-determination, so change that first.
And while I still think there will be some kind of ilegall voting on October 1st, I feel like this isn't the goal, the pro-independence party just want to make noise while pushing the central government to make a single mistake in order to claim international support.
RocknRola
Member
Isn't that a bit of catch 22 of sorts?
As in, is the Spanish Law + Constitution ready/prepared to allow, in any legal manner, a region to pursue independence? All that I've heard (keyword here) is that it's not, ergo, there is not any legal way for that to occur. Which means any and all independence movements would always be illegal under the Law + Constitution, wouldn't it?
Granted, as I've already said, this is based on what I've heard. If there is some legal outlet to make these things happen there, then my post is rendered moot, but if there isn't, expecting them to follow the "law" would lead them nowhere (in their goal of trying to get independence).
Plus it would appear the central goverment is unwilling to allow a proper referendum to take place to decide the matter as well, unlike what happened in Scotland not that long ago (though, again, I could be mistaken on this).
Almost no country in the world has a legal mechanism for secession.
Usually, if you really want it, you have to fight a war for it.
RocknRola
Member
Yeah, I had the feeling that would be the case (though kinda curious to know who the exceptions are tbh, if there are any).
Which, like I said, makes the expectation of having them follow the law a bit of a catch 22. They can't reach their goals by following the law because the law doesn't allow their goals to be reached.
As long as they aren't murdering people left and right like the days of old (when regions wanted to get their own independence) I'm perfectly okay with it. Looking from the outside in, this whole process has seemed fairly civil and relatively peaceful.
No, not spiteful at all eh?
Crow Pudding
Member
It's wonderful anyway how the spanish government puts this effort to shut down any chance for the people to give their opinion. If they worked this hard to chase corruption or to create a better working plan to finish the high rate of unemployment, maybe there will not be this many independentists.
Westbahnhof
Banned
Spiteful but realistic, I'd say. If you think secession without any agreement with the Spanish government will not result in economic problems, you are not thinking at all.
You're the leaver that said no UE member can be thrown out or something, right?
Can you tell me why you think Catalonia is a member country?
Also, can you tell me where your army will come from?
Green Yoshi
Member
Slovenia and Croatia are doing fine since they are independant. They same can be said about the Czech Republic and Slovakia. Therefore I wish people in Catalonia and Spain all the best.
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