If you go one loss in the SEC or PAC you're in. I don't know of any world where that wouldn't be the case.
I wasn't talking about a one loss conference champion. I was talking about a one loss runner up. A close conference title game, or a close conference game in the case of teams in the same division, could see an argument being made for say, Ohio State & Michigan State going into the playoff rather than Ohio State & Boise State. Something along the lines of the Alabama/LSU snorefest rematch we had a few years back. If Boise wins out but in an unimpressive fashion that, along with their weak SOS, could well keep them out of the playoff barring a good number of losses among the top teams of every P5 conference.
The issue is more a 2/3 loss SEC or PAC champion when there's an undefeated Boise St or one loss ND/BYU out there with an impressive overall campaign.
There's almost no way a one loss campaign by BYU would get them into the playoff. They don't play a conference championship, their FPI is middling, and, unfortunately for them, they aren't as big a name that can open those doors like Notre Dame. I know BYU likes to think they are but they're not.
BYU plays a good schedule. They play good P5 teams, some G5 teams that are IMO as good or better than a lot of the lower to mid tier P5 teams, and a couple of cupcakes. A one loss Cougar team with a strong outing deserves real consideration if there are a couple of two-loss conference champions.
Boise State aside, those G5 teams are, at best, on the tier of teams like Rutgers and Maryland. Meaning they're matchups that only really provide a marginal boost to BYU's playoff hopes. BYU has to go undefeated to have any reasonable chance at a playoff bid over their P5 competition. In a lot of cases the boost provided by conference championship games is too significant for a one loss BYU to overcome. Additionally, given the same win-loss record for BYU and Notre Dame, Notre Dame will probably get the nod over BYU. So there are only two realistic scenarios for BYU to make the playoff:
The 'Win Everything' Option:
- 12-0
- There cannot be four other undefeated teams between the P5 conferences and Notre Dame.
The 'Say Your Prayers' Option:
- 11-1
- Wins are in convincing fashion. BYU won't have the benefit of drubbing someone in a conference championship game like Ohio State did last year so the way they win & lose matters considerably.
- Notre Dame's record can be no better than 10-2.
- At least three P5 conference champions have X-2 records.
- BYU's loss can't be to a 13-0 Boise State.
- BYU's loss can't be to UCLA since, at this point in the preseason, that is likely their only potential win against a Top 15 opponent. Any BYU wins over the other P5 teams/Boise State also likely means those teams are less likely to end up in the Top 15 at the end of the regular season. *If Missouri is Top 15 at the time of playing BYU they can end the regular season there if they play well in the BYU game and afterward.
- Nebraska, Michigan, and Missouri must all have decent records.
- BYU's loss comes early and to a team that, at the end of the season, shows itself to be reasonably good. Best case would be a close loss to either Nebraska or Michigan and the winner goes on to do above and beyond expectations for this year. A close loss to an eventual SEC Champion Missouri would also be acceptable. As this loss would be late in the season it's more important that Missouri be Good to soften the blow to BYU's rank in the polls.