I disagree, I think it's more the warped proportions of sales and the greed of shareholders and many publishers that makes it seem like these games once upon a time sold so well and now do not. Don't forget that last generation had its own portion of excellent, 'core' titles that bombed.
And even then the dumbing down of big franchises, like the ones you mentioned, doesn't always work. Conviction sold worse than the original Splinter Cell. And in some cases it's not a case of dumbing down, but arguably a case of preference. I think San Andreas is neat, and I loathe GTAIV. Yet the games are hoving around similar sales: 27m and 22m respectively (probably more for the latter as it's been 12 months since the last count). Then there's Red Dead Redemption, that did something like 12m.
I don't necessarily disagree with the notion that the market has changed and people are buying different games, but I don't think it's as simple as people buying dumb games. It's not always a case of supply meeting demand, as supply can create demand. A lot of games can thrive in this market, but publishers/shareholders/retailers have to allow it to happen. And sadly they don't seem to want to.
Looking to the past, why would I be satisfied with ~3 million sales for a new, awesome stealth series like Splinter Cell, when I can make something more accessible and simplified and potentially double that? If my interest, as an investor, is only how much money I make, I'm not going to care how ambitious or revolutionary the concept is. I just want my money.
As for Dishonoured, I have a bad feeling it's going to slump out of the gate, but I hold Bethesda responsible for this. Up until recently the marketing campaign behind this game has been a disaster. I had a discussion with Nirolak about it around a month ago, when the question of "What exactly is Dishonoured?" was a legitimate one. Even reading the forums, nobody seemed sure just how stages and level selection was organised, how varied mission choices would be, or the full extent of the player's powers. The marketing has been muddy, and I think one of the biggest flaws early on was not putting emphasis on the PC/Steam market, where the audience for this kind of game sits eager in the millions.
Being that Dishonored is not a multiplayer game I don't need it at midnight so I think I might do this.
