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[Teddman]

And the GBA SP will outsell it.

I'm just wondering how perceptions of the launch lineup will color the public's impression of the handheld. Might we end up with an Atari 2600 vs. Atari 5200 situation, where the more expensive successor to a hit console (handheld in this case) is continually outsold by its cheaper and more popular predecessor. Killer apps are definitely needed to set the DS apart from the GBA, which is cheaper and has no shortage of quality games.

 

[jarrod]

" It was Namco's first attempt at a GT clone really,"

Wha? RRT4 is nowhere near a sim racer. The controls are way to simplified to be even put next to GT.

GT had a huge effect on the market, R4's expanded "collect 'em all" scope is obviously a reaction to it's success. And they also toned down it's more arcadey aspects... and really, GT isn't a true sim racer either.

" I dunno which is worse really, depends on what makes Ridge Racer great for you... I'd say..."

Consider that every NAMCO RR is extremely polished in both presentation and gameplay. RR64 isn't polished in any area.

So polish is what makes Ridge Racer great then? Not course design, handling/mechanics or AI?

I'll admit 64 is easily the sloppiest in the series (at least until Pseudo Interactive takes a try), but like I said before, it's just a botched port and not really it's own RR. R4 slipped up in a more fundamental sense I'd say, especially for a Ridge Racer. It's fundamentally the weakest in the series I'd say.

You have to remember, launches are not compared to other launches in the mind of the consumer. No shopper is going to sit there in the store and think, "Well gee, I guess it's better than the N64 launch, or technically it might be better than the PS2 launch and on par with the GBA launch. And hey, look how great the GBA is doing now!"

I think more accurately, they compare it to what else they could be spending their gaming money on at the time. In relation to all the other big gaming releases out there this Holiday season, there is no killer app on the NDS to really drive sales, besides Mario 64 DS. No Pokemon, no new Nintendo IP, no wholly original content from Nintendo at all.

That's why I would say it's a weak launch.

I'd agree with all that... and really I'd say things were similar for PS2 to an extent. People will jump on board due to future promise mainly and the fact that they can play their old games on it too. Brand counts.

 

[jarrod]

And the GBA SP will outsell it.

Goes without saying... GBA SP will outsell everything this holiday season. As usual.

 

[Kon Tiki]

Not hard to outsell DS, there is only 1 million of them.

 

[SolidSnakex]

GT had a huge effect on the market, R4's expanded "collect 'em all" scope is obviously a reaction to it's success. And they also toned down it's more arcadey aspects... and really, GT isn't a true sim racer either..

It's not a true sim racer but RRT4 isn't even remotely close to being a sim racer. It's so easy in terms of handling that there's no way it can be put anywhere near that category. RRT4 is even more arcadey than the other ones because of how easy it is to drift. Drifting in a sim games is a pain in the ass due to you actually having to balance the car, drifting in RRT4 is extremely easy as its impossible to oversteer unless you force the car to.

"So polish is what makes Ridge Racer great then?"

It's certainly a big part of it. Just like polish is a big part of what makes stuff like MGS, Zelda ect great. Would those games be as good with inconsistant framerates, big collision detection problems, bad presentations? No.

"Not course design, handling/mechanics or AI?"

Ofcourse those have to do with it too but as I said earlier, RRT4 has some really nice course designs.

Like I said, they both have problems, and are at the bottom of the barrel in terms of the series. But RRT4 has alot more going for it.

 

[Teddman]

You don't see a potential danger in all those GBA sales? How many people getting/buying a GBA SP this Xmas are going to want to turn around and get a DS right away when they're back in stock? Especially if there aren't any great games on the DS for awhile...

It's an interesting situation, Nintendo having two products competing for essentially the same market.

 

[Kobun Heat]

Killer apps are definitely needed to set the DS apart from the GBA, which is cheaper and has no shortage of quality games.

Well, you could say the same thing for the NES in 1991. In fact, I think quite a lot of people did, and there was no shortage of hand-wringing over what was going to happen to the '8-bit market'.

Answer (spoiler!!): it survived in tandem with new systems, then eventually all development transferred over and it was retired.

 

[Teddman]

I don't think that NES/SNES analogy is really relevent. The SNES had to come out in order to compete with the Genesis and even the Turbo Grafx 16. The 8 bit market was already being forced into transition by other companies.

Right now, the only competition the DS has is the GBA.

 

[open_mouth_]

I'm interested in Mario, Madden, RR, Driller, and Spider-Man depending on the reviews. I'll probably wait a while to see if I'll have the time to even play with the damn thing before I jump in. Launch looks solid, though, imo.

 

[borghe]

the TG-16 was pretty much dead before the SNES came to market..

the GBASP will have NO effect on NDS sales. while you bring up a good point regarding people who will buy a GBASP this winter and be uninterested in "replacing" it anytime soon, there are certainly more than enough people who ARE interested in either replacing their GBA(SP) or interested in getting a NDS instead, even if to just play GBA games on.

Mark my words, between Nintendo limiting supplies and tons of demand NDS sales will be brisk. Even if the launch lineup is inadequate or not.

 

[Kobun Heat]

I don't think that NES/SNES analogy is really relevent. The SNES had to come out in order to compete with the Genesis and even the Turbo Grafx 16. The 8 bit market was already being forced into transition by other companies.

Right now, the only competition the DS has is the GBA.

Yeah, and the Atari 5200 came out to compete with the Colecovision. I'm still not seeing how your analogy has much relevance either.

Nintendo's owned the portable market forever and yet they haven't ever had problems transitioning to new hardware. Lots of people bought Game Boy Colors while the GBA was out because you only needed a GBC to play Pokemon. Didn't hurt the GBA. There's nothing different about this launch. The GBA will be supported with new titles for a while, and exist as the low-cost portable option--just like the NES did until 1994. I don't think Nintendo is worried one bit, but I'm sure they thank you for your misplaced concern.

 

[Insertia]

01 Rage Racer
02 Ridge Racer V
03 Ridge Racer Revolution
04 Ridge Racer Hi-Spec
05 Ridge Racer
06 Ridge Racer 64
07 R4: Ridge Racer Type 04
08 R: Racing Evolution

Uhh, no.
I won't go into detail why you're wrong, but I'll say RR:Type 4 was the highest rated of the series and that reflects its overall rank compared to the others.

 

[Teddman]

Yeah, and the Atari 5200 came out to compete with the Colecovision. I'm still not seeing how your analogy has much relevance either.

You're making my comparision with the Atari 2600/5200 fit yours about the NES/SNES, which makes no sense. My Atari scenario was solely intended to illustrate a worst case scenario where a hardware maker's older console ended up outselling its successor and the company competed against itself... Of course there are plenty of times when that doesn't happen--it's how things are supposed to work.

Nintendo's owned the portable market forever and yet they haven't ever had problems transitioning to new hardware. Lots of people bought Game Boy Colors while the GBA was out because you only needed a GBC to play Pokemon. Didn't hurt the GBA. There's nothing different about this launch. The GBA will be supported with new titles for a while, and exist as the low-cost portable option--just like the NES did until 1994. I don't think Nintendo is worried one bit, but I'm sure they thank you for your misplaced concern.

The GBA didn't cost twice what the GBC did. The GBA had a stronger launch lineup. The GBA was not facing a Sony handheld right around the corner.

Over the next year, Killer Apps are important on the DS. I don't know why you don't want to admit that.

 

[jarrod]

Like I said, they both have problems, and are at the bottom of the barrel in terms of the series. But RRT4 has alot more going for it.

Eh, I guess we'll just have to disagree. I see RR64 as a flawed version of of great game, which is better than an extremely polished bore (R4). Honestly, I'd much rather see Namco Hometek/NST try to port RR64 to DS than R4 (maybe even fixing RR64's collision flaws and upping the presentation/audio)... though really, I'd rather Namco CT to convert that unfinished N64 port of Rave Racer instead of anything.

I don't think that NES/SNES analogy is really relevent. The SNES had to come out in order to compete with the Genesis and even the Turbo Grafx 16. The 8 bit market was already being forced into transition by other companies.

Right now, the only competition the DS has is the GBA.

Actually no, TG16 was a mistake from the start almost thanks to NEC's boneheaded US division's limited distribution, horrible advertsing and questional localization choices. And Genesis really didn't start taking off until 1991 when SNES was already on the market. It didn't pull ahead until 1993, and was almost immediately passed then in 1994.

PSone flying off the shelves didn't seem to hurt PS2 very much... and PS2's only compettion was a year away still....

 

[jarrod]

Uhh, no.
I won't go into detail why you're wrong, but I'll say RR:Type 4 was the highest rated of the series and that reflects its overall rank compared to the others.

That's because you can't... R4 was a mistake, thank god RR5 got everything back on track.

 

[Insertia]

That's because you can't... R4 was a mistake, thank god RR5 got everything back on track.

Can't argue with a guy that places RR64 above RR:T4.

 

[borghe]

And Genesis really didn't start taking off until 1991 when SNES was already on the market.

genesis started taking off with the "Genesis does what Nintendon't" campaign that started in 1990. EA support and in particular John Madden Football and Populous in fall 1990 certainly helped (madden was VERY highly rated in its first outing on the consoles).

Genesis didn't take off into the stratosphere until sonic in 1991, but it erroded some SERIOUS numbers from NES by the end of 1990. At that time it was clear Sega was a serious competitor in the market.

 

[SolidSnakex]

"Honestly, I'd much rather see Namco Hometek/NST try to port RR64 to DS than R4 (maybe even fixing RR64's collision flaws and upping the presentation/audio)..."

That's true, i'd rather NAMCO not let NST touch anymore of their RR games. The next time Nintendo gets a developer to put a popular series on their system without that developer making it, EAD or Intelligent System needs to do the game, and not teams like NST or SK.

 

[P90]

Goes without saying... GBA SP will outsell everything this holiday season. As usual.

Easily US, EU, Aus, JP, and obviously, WW.

 

[Kobun Heat]

You're making my comparision with the Atari 2600/5200 fit yours about the NES/SNES, which makes no sense. My Atari scenario was solely intended to illustrate a worst case scenario where a hardware maker's older console ended up outselling its successor and the company competed against itself... Of course there are plenty of times when that doesn't happen--it's how things are supposed to work.

The GBA didn't cost twice what the GBC did. The GBA had a stronger launch lineup. The GBA was not facing a Sony handheld right around the corner.

Over the next year, Killer Apps are important on the DS. I don't know why you don't want to admit that.

Oh, it's clear that you were trying to illustrate a worst-case scenario. I'm just pointing out that such a scenario won't happen.

The GBA had a stronger launch lineup? Arguable at best, and even if it did, what does it matter when Nintendo will have trouble keeping product on the shelves anyway? What's important is what happens over the next year--during which the DS will indeed have plenty of killer apps. If you look at the upcoming title lineup, that much at least is patently obvious. Within a couple of years, all but a tiny handful of desirable portable games will be on the DS and PSP.

 

[jarrod]

Over the next year, Killer Apps are important on the DS. I don't know why you don't want to admit that.

Well, for notable exclusives so far we know about...

-Pokemon Diamond/Pearl
-Final Fantasy III
-New Super Mario Bros
-Metroid Prime Hunters
-Yu-Gi-OH! Nightmare Troubador
-MegaMan Battle Network
-Objection Court
-Mario Kart DS
-Sonic DS
-Dragon Quest spinoffs
-Gundam Seed
-Jump Super Stars

...plus DS getting multiplatform hits like GoldenEye, Winning Eleven, X-Men Legends, PowerPro, Bomberman, NFSU, Dynasty Warriors, Shin Megami Tensei, DBZ and others in the coming year. Like I said, future software promise is better on DS than almost any previous handheld right out the gate. It's PS2 all over again.

 

[jarrod]

Genesis didn't take off into the stratosphere until sonic in 1991, but it erroded some SERIOUS numbers from NES by the end of 1990. At that time it was clear Sega was a serious competitor in the market.

IIRC, Genesis had a 2-3 million installed based by the time SNES released. Notable, but hardly a threat.

 

[jarrod]

"Honestly, I'd much rather see Namco Hometek/NST try to port RR64 to DS than R4 (maybe even fixing RR64's collision flaws and upping the presentation/audio)..."

That's true, i'd rather NAMCO not let NST touch anymore of their RR games. The next time Nintendo gets a developer to put a popular series on their system without that developer making it, EAD or Intelligent System needs to do the game, and not teams like NST or SK.

Yeah, though EAD can't even be bothered to do their own franchises thses days.

How about this... EAD contracts Rave Racer DS out to (the old) Sega Rosso or Amusement Vision? That way everyone wins.

 

[SolidSnakex]

Yeah, though EAD can't even be bothered to do their own franchises thses days.

How about this... EAD contracts Rave Racer DS out to (the old) Sega Rosso or Amusement Vision? That way everyone wins.

Sega Rosso or AM2. I don't like AV.

 

[jarrod]

Sega Rosso or AM2. I don't like AV or their racers.

I dunno... I'd take AV (Daytona/SuperGT/F-Zero team) over what's left at AM2 (18 Wheeler/Outrun team). Besides, AV could do an excellent RR port (though I'd prefer Hitmaker/Rosso since the original RR producer's there).

 

[borghe]

IIRC, Genesis had a 2-3 million installed based by the time SNES released. Notable, but hardly a threat.

in that year or so sega:

sold more genesis than SMS in the three years it had been released
caused Nintendo's year over year numbers to decline for the first time ever
caused a NOTICEABLE drop in holiday NES sales
cause NES to lose valuable floor space at large retailers (Babbages, Software Etc, Best Buy, etc) and most importantly, video rental stores of which Nintendo usually had to themselves.

prior to the genesis/MD, NES/Famicom sales were still rising even 4-7 years after release. It was the success of the MD/Genesis that finally forced Nintendo to look at the SFC/SNES. Heck, not even the PCE phased the FC.

So no, those 2-3 million in two years weren't that impressive from a numerical standpoint, but they were impressive being that no other system (except for the PCE in JPN) had ever mounted that kind of an assault against the NES and they were continuing to grow.

 

[Guileless]

My rule of thumb is to buy 3 games at console launch--it's exponentially better than having only 2 games available on your new toy. With the GBA, I was very happy with Castlevania, SMA, and F-Zero. Hours and hours of gaming goodness there. It's not nearly so easy to find 3 purchases here. But as someone else mentioned, because of the embarassment of AAA riches that will be the Christmas release schedule it will be all to easy to find other places to spend my discretionary income.


jarrod, I almost always agree with you, but I can't believe the Type 4 hating. How could you not like Type 4, the seminal arcade racer of the 32 bit generation?