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EDGE: The next Xbox: Always online, no second-hand games, 50GB Blu-ray and new kinect
- Thread starter Hanmik
- Start date
76 Million Xbox owners
46 Million Xbox Live accounts
Even assuming that there is only 1 Live account per Xbox, that means they would be leaving 30 million people out in the cold by requiring an always-on connection. Is Microsoft going to do this? I think not.
For the North American market though, they might require always-on DRM, but allow people to run their installed games without the disc in the drive. But for Europe and Austrailia and the Asian markets, they will simply force people to use their game discs to physically verify ownership of games installed on the hard drive.
Shit, now that I think about it that's not a bad solution for every market. Want to play a game without inserting your disc? Log in to Live. Want to play without logging in to Live? Then insert your disc. Works perfectly, so long as nobody figures out how to pirate the discs. It would satisfy the people that want to stop disc-swapping, but also satisfy the people who whine "What happens if I want to play Halo 5 twenty years from now?" (As if you ever even play 20-year old games on their native hardware in 2012).
It really isn't that uncommon to still play snes or 64 in my house, and I'm the only enthusiast living there.
T
thepotatoman
Unconfirmed Member
This is assuming that emulation and roms will continue to be as easy to get as they are now, but homebrewed emulation won't be nearly as feasible as time goes on due to increased complexity. Just like you need bigger teams to build next gen games, you'll need even bigger teams to figure out emulation for it, and there's a limit to how many man hours skilled enough people will give away for free on such a project.
And licencing issues will of course always be a problem looking at legal official venues 20 years down the road.
Seriously, how many of those Xboxes are RRoD replacements. I'd guess it could be as high as >10m. Pretty much every single Xbox bought in the first three years it was on sale is a ticking time bomb. Either the owners ditch Xbox as a platform, or buy a replacement.
And then factor in multiple live acccount per Xbox. Which is hightly likely for non-US residents. I personally have three Live accounts, one for my actual region, and also a US and JP account.
So you could be looking at only 10-15m offline Xbox owners.
Translation: "Give us a few more months then you'll see our new Xbox"
really? Sony are emailing every PSN user about this announcement, its on every gaming site.
The vast majority of target consumers for year one (primarily early adopters etc) will be aware of this. MS just being disingenuous
Why on earth wouldn't they? Its not like the RRoD is some fabricated conspiracy against MS. Time doesn't diminish the unprecedented disaster of the initial 360 hardware failure rate. The RRoD is a massive moment in the history of gaming. Arguably the lowest point in vidoegames. Thankfully, seeing as none of Nintendo, Sony or MS seem to to be pushing the hardware envelope, it will never happen again.
That's kind of funny.
BibiMaghoo
Member
It's impossible to tell how many of those consoles are replacements, but it's also pointless to try.
Many people have replaced as many PS3's and they have 360's.
I am on my 7th (?, maybe 8th, I've lost count) PS3.
My partner is on her 5th or 6th 360.
Sony replaced mine under warranty several times, but I've still had to buy a few.
MS didn't ever replace her 360. All were purchased but some not new.
People also cannot account for how many of those console were bought second hand. That could lead to 2 accounts for one Xbox.
Basically, bringing up console failure rates when looking at number sold is a completely pointless gesture. We do not know and never will. Bringing up Live accounts is almost as pointless, as no one can tell how many live accounts a console does or does not have.
Many people have replaced as many PS3's and they have 360's.
I am on my 7th (?, maybe 8th, I've lost count) PS3.
My partner is on her 5th or 6th 360.
Sony replaced mine under warranty several times, but I've still had to buy a few.
MS didn't ever replace her 360. All were purchased but some not new.
People also cannot account for how many of those console were bought second hand. That could lead to 2 accounts for one Xbox.
Basically, bringing up console failure rates when looking at number sold is a completely pointless gesture. We do not know and never will. Bringing up Live accounts is almost as pointless, as no one can tell how many live accounts a console does or does not have.
Bojanglez
The Amiga Brotherhood
I was playing Zelda on my SNES just last week, something about booting up the actual system you first played it on with a proper controller is a great feeling.
Edit: but I'm not one of those whiners
Gemüsepizza
Member
No offense, but maybe you should change your living enviroment if you somehow manage to destroy 14 consoles in 6-7 years. Because there is a high probability that it has nothing to do with the quality of their designs. Additionally, your experience is really just anectdotal evidence and rather pointless. There are statistics that clearly show that Microsoft's console suffered far more defects than the Playstation 3. So your assumptions do not really reflect reality.
Pretty much the only games I don't play on the original hardware are PS1 games, as I play them on the PS2.
How did you burn through that many consoles?? I'm speechless. Wow your perception of the next gen consoles must be really shit, you must have been really unlucky this gen bro. I would have given up after the 2nd console, thankfully I only had 1st gen xbox (died), then the slim model.
Four_Chamber
Member
oldergamer
Member
That is the dumbest argument that keeps coming back from people.
1st none of the replacement Xbox systems that were shipped by MS to people for free if their xbox died count against the sold number. That's been repeated I don't know how many times but there's a few people like SPE that simple don't listen and read the sdf website.
2nd you don't get any real benefit for multiple region LIVE accounts like you once did on PSN. You can't buy anything from those regions without having an address in that area. all you can do is download demos? Anyway multiple region accounts wouldn't make up a large portion of those xbox live accounts like it did for sonys PSN numbers.
That's exactly the same requirement as PSN. Why would it be a problem on Live but not there?
The argument against multiple-region Live accounts is only that non-US/maybe UK Live is pretty crappy, and even then that just means JP and EU users with NA Live Silver rather than NA users with JP/EU PSN accounts.
That's not true. I'm able to buy stuff from the American marketplace even though I live in Norway.
Joel Was Right
Member
That means Live will be free, right?
Xbox Live Free(Silver) will be free.
eso76
Member
Man needs a tag.
Console slayer ?
I have a working launch x360, another older one and an elite.
Launch unit rrodded once after 2 years and was replaced by ms for free in 3 days and that's it.
Launch ps3 still going strong.
Insane Metal
Member
Corleth the Fey
Member
1. Microsoft have sold 76 million Xbox
360s. I've over 7 years bought 3 new ones. I'm one user. Do you really think that every RROD xbox was replaced for free by Microsoft?
2. My PayPal account is attached to one of my US accounts (UK gamer here), I can quite happy buy content from the US marketplace, thank you very much. I have four live accounts.
What this all points to is this. There maybe 76 million boxes sold and 40 million live accounts, but the actual user numbers are lower than that. Every Xbox owner I know from Casual to Engaged gamer, which numbers in the dozens have all had multiple boxes. Most won't have multi region accounts, but more than a few have just started new accounts after problems with their old ones.
If most of those sales figures are repeat purchases the 360 has one damn-impressive attatch rate then.
ElRenoRaven
Member
Gemüsepizza;47704370 said:
Yea. After 1 or 2 you might start to question if it's the console or just you. However after 14 damn consoles it's clearly you.
Ehhh I don't' know. I think there are a few benefits for the consumer. Certainly most are to Microsoft, but I think you get a similar mutually beneficial relationship that Valve gets with Steam. Instant downloads of patches while you are away from the console for one thing. I guess if the console was always on they could get around this by constantly polling the servers every hour to check for an update, but why bother? Just leave the player always signed in. Still don't think if they do "always online" you will literally have to be logged in at all times though. Just to register your game the first time, or to play games you own on other consoles. Just like how digital purchase work on the current 360. So maybe we are arguing different points.
Tripp Daily
Member
I can't believe you quoted him and then linked that article. You basically proved his point by linking an article from 6 years ago. He said he can't believe its "still" a thing not that it never was a thing. Geez, a little reading comprehension and maturity will go a long way on the internet.
CadetMahoney
Member
Isn't there something about attach rate proving the "zomg RROD" crowd wrong too?
OldJadedGamer
Banned
Yes, it is silly to mention. Thats why saying broken consoles counting toward sales used to be a bannable offense on GAF.
Miles Quaritch
Member
Why isn't it bannable any more?
Corleth the Fey
Member
I own over 400 Xbox 360 games. So there's a few mentalists like me bumping up that attach rate!
I suspect that even people with small collections have over the years traded in games for new ones, making the software attach rate higher than would've expected.
The software attach rate on 360 has to be enormous. It's nearly EIGHT YEARS OLD!
People trying to discount the busted systems counting toward that 76 million number are only fooling themselves. In the first three years on sale, the 360 was supremely unreliable hardware. Many people bought replacements before the billion dollar payoff. That could easily number up to ten million by now given old systems keep on failing today and many replace with the new revision.
Also, include all those who bought the new revision just because. It's a high number, and that probably means attach rate on 360 is higher than reported. Substantially higher.
All of the above is very easy to believe.
People trying to discount the busted systems counting toward that 76 million number are only fooling themselves. In the first three years on sale, the 360 was supremely unreliable hardware. Many people bought replacements before the billion dollar payoff. That could easily number up to ten million by now given old systems keep on failing today and many replace with the new revision.
Also, include all those who bought the new revision just because. It's a high number, and that probably means attach rate on 360 is higher than reported. Substantially higher.
All of the above is very easy to believe.
OldJadedGamer
Banned
Not sure but when it was bannable I think GAF had one of the most civil NPD threads.
Miles Quaritch
Member
I would dearly love to see a picture of that collection. I can't fathom how anyone could own 400 xbox 360 games.
Pertaining to your assumption. why is it more realistic and believable to assume that people bought a new console instead of returning the broken console to to store of purchase (assuming it's under warranty, which given how unreliable and poorly built the early 360 consoles were, they should have been) or contacting microsoft personally to obtain a free repair?
based on this and your omission of this, much more believable possibility, I have to disagree and say none of your post is particularly believable.
Thank you. I assumed it wasn't banned any more due to some new information.
Beer Monkey
Member
Anecdotal: I bought 3 360s because two broke but all three are in use today. I eventually had the first two fixed for free and sold them to friends.
I took a busted PS3 back to Costco (they swapped for a new revision, sadly I lost BC) but I'll bet it's still out there as a refurb and in use to this day.
A guy I work with buys busted consoles off eBay and fixes them and sells them.
If you are MS or Sony do you really care if some consoles aren't in the hands of the original owner as long as they are being used by somebody who buys games? I'm sure some people are just so thick as to toss a broken console in a dumpster but I doubt most are.
Final anecdote: I had more PS2s break on me than 360s.
Silly.Mikey
Banned
Not prices. I buy some games i kinda wanna play knowing ill be able to trade them when the big games come out. But with no trading option, theres a lot of games i wont play anymore.
Beer Monkey
Member
I know lots of families that, every November, trade in many of the games they bought over the last year to ease the price of the fall season's hot new titles. I know lots of families that trade in practically every game they have when upgrading to a new console every five to seven years.
Killing the used game market is going to suck liquidity out of the gaming hobby economy and the industry is going to have to contact.
Corleth the Fey
Member
I just counted my boxed games. It's 305. Digital purchases easily make up another 100. The games are spread out around the flat, and I can't be bothered to make a neat little pile to photo, right now. Especially as the girlfriend didn't look too keen on the idea. I'll have more time at the weekend, I'll try then, and PM it to you.
I'd like to say that I'm only pointing out that using the numbers that Microsoft releases on sold boxes and live users isn't a reliable way of deciding how many users there actually are. It has to be less. Fact. I'm neither claiming it's a large or small amount.
Do you follow gaming news at all? Did you see the recent fellow who took his Nintendo Wii U back to the retailer and lost hundreds of dollars in games because he did so instead of contacting Nintendo? Yeah.
People take the path of least resistance, especially if they can afford it. People were being told they were out of warranty after 90 days, which to most Americans means, "YOU ARE FUCKED!" So they headed out to buy another one. Also, we as a culture are trained that phone support and customer service is awful. If you can afford it, why call? You're just going to get the runaround and have to pay nearly as much to get a refurbished unit anyway!
This was the prevailing wisdom of the time, too.
Anyone who doesn't see it this way is just sticking their head in the sand... STILL... after years of watching those things fail. That's how I feel about it and my mind won't ever change on the issue. Microsoft knows the real numbers, and they're never going to talk, so we're at an impasse where you can't prove you're right either. I like my informed theory a lot more than yours.
Beer Monkey
Member
Horseshit. Practically every 360 early adopter I know IRL has sent one or more consoles to McAllen TX.
Why do you think Microsoft had to take a $1billion charge? Because they they had to refurb fucktons of consoles in McAllen (aka Mexico North) for free.
Version 3.0
Member
What's with all the RROD talk? Not really on topic, is it? Also not that complicated, and it's been talked to death, undeath, and complete brain death many times in NPD threads.
1. Were a lot of 360's replaced with purchases? Yes.
2. Was it enough (vs. other systems) to significantly affect statistics? We don't know, but the data we do have suggests not. Everything else is just useless conjecture.
So, Microsoft thinks their customers won't hear about the PS4, eh? Silly...
1. Were a lot of 360's replaced with purchases? Yes.
2. Was it enough (vs. other systems) to significantly affect statistics? We don't know, but the data we do have suggests not. Everything else is just useless conjecture.
So, Microsoft thinks their customers won't hear about the PS4, eh? Silly...