soundahfekz
Member
First chill,
Let me clarify, assuming if it did in fact "vanish" at that height, it COULD be an explosion. Not that it is not that's likely, but that it's in the realm of possibility. That's all I was saying
-
Hey, guest user. Hope you're enjoying NeoGAF! Have you considered registering for an account? Come join us and add your take to the daily discourse.
Egypt Air flight from Paris disappears from radar
- Thread starter jbug617
- Start date
- Status
First chill,
Let me clarify, assuming if it did in fact "vanish" at that height, it COULD be an explosion. Not that it is not that's likely, but that it's in the realm of possibility. That's all I was saying
Which, assuming for a second a hostile act, and not an id error or crash, puts it well within the range of amateurs with stolen G2A missiles. And fits with the long unmolested flight and other details.
Literally just speculating about worst case scenarios.
Bam Bam Baklava
Member
Or someone shut it off like that Malaysian Airlines disappearance.
s_mirage
Member
I'd assume that would cut off the ads-b data that the flight tracking sites utilise.
It's been missing for 3 hours now? That's not a good sign.
King Tubby
Member
Every time I see EgyptAir I think of EgyptAir Flight 990. Probably not what happened here, but it's what comes to mind. I hope it's just some equipment malfunction and everyone is okay.
jellies_two
Member
Depends if it's covered by radar or just the transponder
If the transponder went off it would vanish from flightaware data but later it may be revealed that European radar saw it descending rapidly, or some other such trace that shows it probably hit the ocean. This isn't the middle of nowhere.
"Air Transat Flight 236 experienced a complete power loss over the Atlantic Ocean in 2001. All passengers and crew survived after the aircraft glided 75 miles to a runway on the Azores islands."
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Air_Transat_Flight_236
It was scheduled to land at 3:15 AM Cairo time. It's been missing for ~3 hrs.
Macho Madness
Member
Been missing for almost 3 hours and had an hour's worth of fuel left when it disappeared.
This would be fantastic. But let's be real.
Well, the OP linked flight path has it's "estimated flight time" at like 3:47, and it disappeared/stopped at 3:44. Really funky to have it end so close to landing soon.
MassiveNights
Banned
Typically aircraft have plenty of electrical power redundancies. I wouldn't expect it to have lost all power, enough to knock the transponder offline anyway.
Pure speculation of course.
Pure speculation of course.
Been missing for almost 3 hours and had an hour's worth of fuel left when it disappeared.
Those poor souls!
Taking off and landing are when the most accidents happen for planes.
Though this doesn't look like a normal accident.
MassiveNights
Banned
Airline confirming it was at an altitude of 37,000ft when it disappeared from radar.
Very strange.
Very strange.
jellies_two
Member
Again it should be made clear whether the radar return blip vanished or the transponder stopped and they haven't seen the radar data yet.
Even with big explosions like Lockerbie the radar sees the body of the plane fall.
DXB-KNIGHT
Member
Egypt has problems with the Muslim Brotherhood the mother brain of AL Qaida, Hamas and recently ISIS.
Egypt needs to be more alert since they're seeking revenge after the crackdown on the MB.
Egypt needs to be more alert since they're seeking revenge after the crackdown on the MB.
Bam Bam Baklava
Member
The plane took off from Paris.
And vanished from airspace 10 minutes inside the Egyptian border. I'm guessing S2A missile or crew intervention. Hoping for neither.
I'm guessing that it was at 37000 feet then nothing, no descent on radar is not a good thing based on my very limited knowledge.
brianmcdoogle
Member
Perhaps wild speculation shouldn't be given within an hour of this news breaking?
Springhettios
Member
What is the problem with speculating? Do you guys think family members of passengers are watching this post. People are just thinking of any possible cause of the plane disappearing.
YesNOnoNOYes
Member
oh no hoping it will be found ... against all odds
Baroquemantic
Member
Hoping for the best.Hidden One
Member
This sucks. It seems like every year around May or June a flight goes missing . Hope they're okay..
. Hope they're okay..1) it didn't just disappear from the ADSB track it was in naked radar range.
2) the data will continue into the ground if the plane has any power
3) in the event of a total power loss ie both engines and the APU and the batteries run out, the RAT will deploy
4) all of the above tends to lead to the conclusion there was a catastrophic mid air event at 37,000 feet
5) there was no apparent weather and modern aircraft tend not just to fall apart.
so .........
2) the data will continue into the ground if the plane has any power
3) in the event of a total power loss ie both engines and the APU and the batteries run out, the RAT will deploy
4) all of the above tends to lead to the conclusion there was a catastrophic mid air event at 37,000 feet
5) there was no apparent weather and modern aircraft tend not just to fall apart.
so .........
Vyse The Legend
Member
I'm genuinely surprised by the number of people in this thread claiming that "these things happen" and/or vehemently arguing that mechanical failure must be the cause whenever someone even suggests the possibility of terrorism.
DrForester
Kills Photobucket
1) it didn't just disappear from the ADSB track it was in naked radar range.
2) the data will continue into the ground if the plane has any power
3) in the event of a total power loss ie both engines and the APU and the batteries run out, the RAT will deploy
4) all of the above tends to lead to the conclusion there was a catastrophic mid air event at 37,000 feet
5) there was no apparent weather and modern aircraft tend not just to fall apart.
so .........
Yeah, the only mechanical failure I can think of that would result in the loss of an entire plane that quickly is the engine turbines falling apart, sending shrapnel though the fuselage. Though, I can't remember an incident like that since the 90's and that United DC-10 incident in Iowa. And even then the plane was somewhat flyable. The Pilots nearly landed the thing safely, and over half the passengers survived (which is kind of amazing if you see the crash video).
And like you said, planes are tough. Even explosive decompression is unlikely to bring down an airliner.
37000 feet is really high though, like out of MANPAD range isn't it?
So probably not a S2A unless ISIS has some BUKS around in Egypt.
MassiveNights
Banned
Controllers don't see radar data, the information they see is reported from aircraft. Whatever happened, happened very quickly.
Massive mechanical/ electronic failure which is really unlikely.
A missile, also very unlikely.
Crew intentionally going dark (maybe).
Or a bomb (seems unlikely since it took off from Paris)
MassiveNights
Banned
Pilot manually turning data off
Sudden loss of airframe (catastrophic, very sudden)
Power failure (planes have plenty back up)
Terrorism/external forces (bomb, missile)
If I had to put money on, it's be the last option given the flight route.
DrForester
Kills Photobucket
Need more clarification from the news, as they usually use the term "radar" pretty loosely. A pilot can turn off the transponder and such so it won't appear on Air Traffic Control scopes, but if a station had the plane on actual radar contact, then there's absolutely nothing the pilot could do to suddenly vanish from radar.
And like some others have already said, even an explosion would result in multiple parts showing up on radar.
MassiveNights
Banned
News and airline almost certainly referring to loss of ADS-B data. The radar data will be on tape and will need to be analysed.
DrForester
Kills Photobucket
Yeah, if this plane was in Egyptian Airspace when contact was lost then it didn't just vanish over the ocean like the Malaysian Air flight did. They'll know exactly where to look, and probably know already if it exploded.
That is much different than "disappearing from radar."
To completely vanish from radar at 37,000 feet you would have to more-or-less vaporize the plane in one go.
If they lost contact from both ADS-B (satellite-based position tracking), radar beacon transponders, and search-based radar tracking (basically, when the transponders aren't working, the tracking systems say "oh, we see this object heading west at ~300 knots at a flat altitude, and we've gotten a consistent change in position from the last 2 or 3 radar scans... I think we can assign an identifier to this object and track it that way") simultaneously, that's not good.
MassiveNights
Banned
No weather issues at time of disappearance, clear skies etc.
Airline reporting pilot had 6275hrs flight time, co-pilot 2766hrs.
Plane was built in 2003.
Airline reporting pilot had 6275hrs flight time, co-pilot 2766hrs.
Plane was built in 2003.
DrForester
Kills Photobucket
GhostWriter24
Member
Not good. =(
- Status