True but I showed the break even point for that event was ~72% and you don't need to pull even once for that, as you could get it with friend units.
That doesn't take into account metal gods. Although rare, the karma was so high it had a very big impact on the average.
It's 72% on the high end, if you are averaging 216 per run. Low end is 78(180), Average is 75%. With a sole friend Elza.
As I said, it's faulty since it completely ignores all opportunity costs to the equation.
If you want to add in the Metal Gods, it would drastically reduce sure it. But when are you going to get them? Are you going to get them? This applies exactly to the great TMs down the line. I had 2 in my first 50 runs. Some people were sitting at 20+ by the time they hit 100 runs, others were around 5.
For the current event, I'm at 43 runs and I've ran into one Cactur. That is 2.3%, in comparison to the said 6%. Someone else in here had something like 7 I believe in just the first day.
It is just my personal opinion, but I believe it is far better to average out the low end than the high end of statistics.
It is that hard to get orlandu, tidus, eileen?
Because just here the amount of gilgamesh and Elzas dropped makes me think that everybody here can at least have a really good shot of getting one of them.
The amount of top units here in rates up is very high, for units that have 1% chance of dropping.
Right now I'm sitting at a rainbow since launch.(Lucky it was Luneth)
I can't recall all my pulls, but I'm around.
50+ pulls on the Lightning Banner(20+ Tickets, Dailies, and 2 10+1, with change)
18 pulls on Lightning(16 tickets, plus a daily or two)
I think around 30 on the Elza banner(13 Tickets, Dailies, and a 10+1 pull)
Giglamesh(Dailies, 3 tickets, and a 10+1)
Just taking those, around 120. So I'm under the 1% currently, not including everything else I missed and everything else outside those banners.
I'm typically below the Avg for most of the event spawns too.
16 Metal Gods out of 125 Runs(13%)
1 Metal Cact out of 43 Runs(2.3%)
That is of course taking into account the quick napkin Probability rather than actual. Since the 1% chance of appear doesn't mean one you'll get one out of a 100 pulls, but rather every single pull has a 1% chance.
I believe I made the argument a long time ago, but I think in moderate size upgrades rather than large burst for this very reason.