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[Savitar]

Ok, so. What does this mean? What's going to happen?

The honest answer?

No one knows.

Rhetoric and assumptions are in full swing.

 

[Xando]

Man, the craziness is flying.

Monitor what the ECB does, all there is at this point.

Can't see the ECB pull the plug before july 20th tbh. We'll probably get populism the next two weeks from both sides without any results and greece defaulting on ECB debt.

 

[LJ11]

The last time Greece was in trouble, I seem to recall a lot of people being very concerned about the implications, not only in the EU but the US as well.

That's because banks were still on the hook for the losses, no longer the case.

Can't see the ECB pull the plug before july 20th tbh. We'll probably get populism the next two weeks from both sides without any results and greece defaulting on ECB debt.

Well they have to allow/extend ELA to the Bank of Greece with no increase to collateral haircuts. Again though, ELA is direct responsibility of BoG, losses would be on them but would extend to larger euro system if collateral is nonperforming (most of it is junk). Wouldn't really matter though, ECB has turned on the printer so they probably won't be that concerned with printing their way out of the losses.

 

[Deleted member 231381]

Can't see the ECB pull the plug before july 20th tbh. We'll probably get populism the next two weeks from both sides without any results and greece defaulting on ECB debt.

Greece has to meet private creditor debt on the 8th, so if the ECB doesn't decide to grant emergency liquidity to allow for further negotiations, this could be over by then.

 

[ClosingADoor]

The contagion effects will surely affect south-europe and the Euro will become a dead currency in the mid-term.

How much this will affect the global ecconomy we shall see.

We can't really say anything about that yet. It all depends on the next days and how Greece and the Eurogroup continue their negotiations (if at all).

The last time Greece was in trouble, I seem to recall a lot of US economists being very concerned about the implications.

The last time there was a big risk of large (German and I think French) banks going under. That would have had a big impact. That risk is gone now.

 

[alexandros]

Is there any Greeks in this thread or people who are aware/seen what has been happening on the ground. I'm curious what the overall living standards are now compared to 5-6 years ago. Before the shit hit the fan. How much have wages decrease? What benefits have they lost or have declined (retirement age increased? Less Welfare, Less full time jobs?) Have the price of goods increase? and so on.

Most people have had to face at least 50-60% of income decrease, either through wage cuts or tax hikes. Those are still considered the lucky ones because they still have jobs. Income reduction, Mass unemployment and the near total collapse of the public health and wellfare system has resulted in a dramatic drop in living standards.

 

[Diablos]

That's because banks were still on the hook for the losses, no longer the case.

I see.

So is this really the beginning of the end for the EU or is that a bit hyperbolic?

 

[PdotMichael]

The last time Greece was in trouble, I seem to recall a lot of people being very concerned about the what it would do to the economy, not only in the EU but the US as well.

Weak Euro means that the TTIP will put American companies in a worse position, because they can't sell their products to Europe.

 

[Joni]

The last time Greece was in trouble, I seem to recall a lot of people being very concerned about the what it would do to the economy, not only in the EU but the US as well.

They have consolidated the Greek debt in Greek banks while strengthening Italy, Spain and Portugal. It wasn't Greece, it was the bigger countries that they were scared off.

 

[valouris]

The last time Greece was in trouble, I seem to recall a lot of people being very concerned about the what it would do to the economy, not only in the EU but the US as well.

Last time, a huge debt (the biggest ever by the IMF) was given to "Greece" that went straight to the over-exposed Greek, European and American banks. The banks were saved. After that, reforms were made to the Eurozone system and new mechanisms were created to protect banks and the currency in case of such events (for which they were totally unprepared).

 

[OnADock]

How do I avoid paying taxes if I charge you for a service or product if the currency is electronic.

Same way people do now. You don't think the rich avoid taxes by mailing hard cash to offshore banks do you? Are you proposing that the government would have to oversee every transaction in the nation? how would this be any different than checking?

 

[JoeyJungle]

Ok, so. What does this mean? What's going to happen?

Short answer: It's unclear.

Basically the referrendum was just asking if people thought that Greece should accept the new set of austerity measures that they were being offered at the time. The offer hasn't been on the table for several days, so technically the referendum was pointless.

But it allowed the people of Greece to show express their feelings toward more austerity measures of the type they've been receiving from the IMF and Eurozone, and will allow the Greek government to continue negotiations with the subtext of "Don't give us this offer, we won't take this offer, the people of Greece don't want this offer." and also strengthens their unsaid threat to leave the Eurozone/Grexit.

edit: PS anyone please correct me if I'm misunderstanding anything about the situation

 

[Coriolanus]

I see.

So is this really the beginning of the end for the EU or is that a bit hyperbolic?

Depends on how willing politicians that benefited from "lazy greeks" rethoric are to commit career suicide.

 

[PodcastFips]

I see.

So is this really the beginning of the end for the EU or is that a bit hyperbolic?

I don't think anyone can answer that right now,

 

[valouris]

So is this really the beginning of the end for the EU or is that a bit hyperbolic?

Million dollar question. Probably a bit hyperbolic, but anything goes at this point.

 

[cyberheater]

More posturing by both sides. Nothing happens different either way the vote went.

I'm not sure this is true. The people have basically voted to exit the Eurozone. It would be hard to not listen to that mandate.

 

[The Purple Pill]

Watching all of this unfold from over here in the US, I'm really amazed at how powerful Germany has become.

Also a bit concerned about what a Grexit will mean for the US/global economy.

I think the US economy has Puerto Rico to worry about, although possibly not as much Europe is worrying about Greece.

So Greece is going to default? I hope everyone have prepared themselves, it's going to get even tougher for the next year or two, but after that it'll probably get better, and with a cheaper currency, Greece' Tourism will hopefully bloom once again. Depending how competent the Government is.

I doubt it'll be a happy ending, like it was for Iceland.

 

[chadskin]

mathieuvonrohr: German EP Vice President @lambsdorff: "Chancellor Merkel and others must now organize Grexit" http://t.co/neqAxWy3NU

https://twitter.com/mathieuvonrohr/status/617780974949146624

 

[Hrothgar]

The last time Greece was in trouble, I seem to recall a lot of people being very concerned about the what it would do to the economy, not only in the EU but the US as well.

The last time (ie. 2010) a lot of banks in Southern European countries (which had their own banking crisis at this point) had a lot of liabilities in Greece, which would have caused a chain effect had Greece gone under back then. Exposure of these banks to Greece has long been decreased to insignificant levels.

The last time there was a big risk of large (German and I think French) banks going under. That would have had a big impact. That risk is gone now.

They wouldn't have gone under due to exposure to Greece, but due to exposure to Italy and Spain, so a bit more indirect.

 

[valouris]

The people have basically voted to exit the Eurozone. It would be hard to not listen to that mandate.

This is not the mandate. 80% of Greeks want to stay in the Eurozone (this week's poll). The greek government does not interpret this mandate as a Grexit mandate. If the rest of the EU choose to interpret it that way then it is on them.

 

[speculawyer]

I think they have to leave the Euro eventually or much of the debt needs to be written off.

They can't go on endlessly piling on debt.

 

[Kill Your Masters]

This is not the mandate. 80% of Greeks want to stay in the Eurozone (this week's poll). The greek government does not interpret this mandate as a Grexit mandate. If the rest of the EU choose to interpret it that way then it is on them.

So greeks cant be wrong? Because whatever they do, it seems they have an excuse for everything and its always someone else at fault.

 

[EloKa]

This is not the mandate. 80% of Greeks want to stay in the Eurozone (this week's poll). The greek government does not interpret this mandate as a Grexit mandate. If the rest of the EU choose to interpret it that way then it is on them.

Greece also has no mandate to re-negotiate. The poll only stated "I do not accept these terms".

Some greek politicans stated that they will re-negotiate within 24 to 48 hours. They'll go to a table to get some deals done, but the EU will definately not be there in that timezone. Maybe they'll negotiate with themselves

 

[Relaxed Muscle]

I'm not sure this is true. The people have basically voted to exit the Eurozone. It would be hard to not listen to that mandate.

They voted "no more austerity, because is killing us", no "we don't want the Euro", even of the other European leaders tried to make their best of make this the second one.

Now the ball is in EU court.

Greece also has no mandate to re-negotiate. The poll only stated "I do not accept these terms".

Some greek politicans stated that they will re-negotiate within 24 to 48 hours. They'll go to a table to get some deals done, but the EU will definately not be there in that timezone. Maybe they'll negotiate with themselves

And that's on the EU. The ball in in their court now, they want to save Greece, save the EU and the Euro or their political and local careers are more important?

 

[JoeyJungle]

Also a bit concerned about what a Grexit will mean for the US/global economy.

Not a whole lot. Greece makes up less than 2% of the EU's GDP (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_the_European_Union#Economies_of_member_states). What's dangerous about Grexit is that it's not supposed to be possible to leave the EU, there's been no stipulation for it before. If Greek can leave, suddenly that makes the EU's union much more fragile.

 

[chadskin]

This is not the mandate. 80% of Greeks want to stay in the Eurozone (this week's poll). The greek government does not interpret this mandate as a Grexit mandate. If the rest of the EU choose to interpret it that way then it is on them.

A better deal does not suddenly appear just because the Greeks voted for one.

 

[wsippel]

I see.

So is this really the beginning of the end for the EU or is that a bit hyperbolic?

Hard to tell. But I certainly think it will lead to rather significant reforms.

 

[Theonik]

There's a 500€ note? WTF

It's quite awesome looking. The higher you get in the Eurobills the more 'fun' the design elements become to stop forgery. Wish I still had some around.

I've heard that Germans despise credit cards and debt in general, but they do love using debit cards.

It's kinda complicated. Germany has even worse eComerce than Greece I would say. They don't really use Debit cards, and they don't use them online at all. Whereas all debit cards I've gotten in the UK and Greece and well pretty much anywhere were VISA. For online payments they use credit cards but most people don't have them so they had to invent some of their own annoying solutions to that problem.

Yeah, that absolutely sucks. One thing I throughly enjoy about the US is that you can pay everything and everywhere with your creditcard.

It was the same in the UK. UK is better than both the US and definitely Germany I would say on this front.

Now Golden Dawn party will claim it was them who backed SYRIZA

Foreign press and EU officials will claim there is an alliance between Neonazis and Communists

It's 1939 again.

No way. I was in Cyprus two weeks ago and everyone says okie but with the k muffled.

Cyprus has a peculiar accent and dialect. Crete does as well but not as pronounced.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Uqn78ZhDxtQ

Yeah, I don't understand why so many people assume that the popular vote in Greece will have much influence on the other states. They don't answer to the people of Greece, they answer to their own people. And many of these people still believe that they should get their billions back. The tabloids in those countries would have a field day with a full scale debt relief, even though Greece just cannot pay the debts back.

The funny part with this rhetoric though is that people don't realise it is the only guaranteed way they are not getting their money back. It would have been much easier to deal with banks here because they understand how to get their money back and are only bound by that mandate. (responsibility to their stock holders)

The savings are save in Switzerland and other EU states.

Mattress savings are real.

 

[SymbiantXenos]

Sakis Michalarakos
‏@SakisMicha

Varoufakis: "From tomorrow, with the no, we will ask for help and assistance from our partners. "

Yes I guess those evil terrorists (his words for the eu) can't wait to get started tomorrow...

 

[ElTorro]

And what about the one-dimensional demonization of Greece?

I wasn't talking about Greece nor defending people who make ads like the one you posted?

The funny part with this rhetoric though is that people don't realise it is the only guaranteed way they are not getting their money back.

Guess it just feels good to say 'no more'.

 

[petran79]

Most people have had to face at least 50-60% of income decrease, either through wage cuts or tax hikes. Those are still considered the lucky ones because they still have jobs. Income reduction, Mass unemployment and the near total collapse of the public health and wellfare system has resulted in a dramatic drop in living standards.

In a lot of cases, some things in Greece only work through EU funds! Eg a lot of Special Education schools would have to remain closed

They push the elderly to early death already, people with disabilities will follow next....

 

[Heartfyre]

I see.

So is this really the beginning of the end for the EU or is that a bit hyperbolic?

I would say it's extremely hyperbolic. In the first instance, we have to separate the Eurozone from the European Union, as it is a very probable scenario that Greece will leave the Euro but remain within the political union. It's only doubtful, due to changes over the last five years, that either union will be substantially directly affected by a Grexit. It's the indirect scenarios that lead to rumbling about a EU-dissolve: if Italy gets into hard times, they might leave the Euro, etc. In the short-term, and assuming any measure of political competency, these scenarios are likely fantasies dreamed by nationalists reflecting their own secessionist agenda.

 

[Theonik]

In a lot of cases, some things in Greece only work through EU funds! Eg a lot of Special Education schools would have to remain closed

They push the elderly to early death already, people with disabilities will follow next....

Well that DOES solve the social/pension deficit in a way.

 

[wsippel]

Not a whole lot. Greece makes up less than 2% of the EU's GDP (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_the_European_Union#Economies_of_member_states). What's dangerous about Grexit is that it's not supposed to be possible to leave the EU, there's been no stipulation for it before. If Greek can leave, suddenly that makes the EU's union much more fragile.

It is possible to leave the EU (article 50 of the Treaty of Lisbon), it's just not possible for the EU to kick states out.

 

[cyberheater]

This is not the mandate. 80% of Greeks want to stay in the Eurozone (this week's poll). The greek government does not interpret this mandate as a Grexit mandate. If the rest of the EU choose to interpret it that way then it is on them.

They voted "no more austerity, because is killing us", no "we don't want the Euro", even of the other European leaders tried to make their best of make this the second one.

Now the ball is in EU court.



And that's on the EU. The ball in in their court now, they want to save Greece, save the EU and the Euro or their political and local careers are more important?

Well other European countries had told Greece that a no vote means a Euro exit. I really can't see how Greece can stay in the Euro zone.

 

[michaelius]

This is not the mandate. 80% of Greeks want to stay in the Eurozone (this week's poll). The greek government does not interpret this mandate as a Grexit mandate. If the rest of the EU choose to interpret it that way then it is on them.

There's one small problem - you can't eat cake and still have it.

 

[Guileless]

Well other European countries had told Greece that a no vote means a Euro exit. I really can't see how Greece can stay in the Euro zone.

It would require the EU to become a transfer union, with German taxpayers voting for politicians to send money to Greece to subsidize Greek living standards because "EU solidarity."

 

[JoeyJungle]

It is possible to leave the EU (article 50 of the Treaty of Lisbon), it's just not possible for the EU to kick states out.

Thanks, I was under the impression that it was legally impossible to happen. Looked it up, turns out it's pretty controversial. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greek_withdrawal_from_the_eurozone#Legality.

EDIT:

I was assuming Eurozone and the EU were synonymous, I'm totally wrong about that. What's controversial is whether Greece can leave the Eurozone without leaving the EU.

 

[Lovely Salsa]

Most people have had to face at least 50-60% of income decrease, either through wage cuts or tax hikes. Those are still considered the lucky ones because they still have jobs. Income reduction, Mass unemployment and the near total collapse of the public health and wellfare system has resulted in a dramatic drop in living standards.

How much has the house market dropped in athens? Whats the sqm price now vs before at its highest?

 

[Relaxed Muscle]

Well other European countries had told Greece that a no vote means a Euro exit. I really can't see how Greece can stay in the Euro zone.

It was a pitiful threat to force Greek people vote a "Yes".

They exactly know how dangerous is to kick Greece for the Union and the Euro. They can of course but they will doom both doing so.

 

[oti]

Martin Schulz on ZDF in a few minutes.

 

[EloKa]

And that's on the EU. The ball in in their court now, they want to save Greece, save the EU and the Euro or their political and local careers are more important?

No. Greece voted that they did not want to be saved. This was clearly the question: do you take our plan to save your country? Greece said no. There is no "ball" anywhere now. The story is pretty much over.

You can't demand to stay in a club with those other cool guys but expect to be the only one who doesn't follow the club's rules. This does simply not work and Greece will have to exit the club

 

[lazer_bean]

I see.

So is this really the beginning of the end for the EU or is that a bit hyperbolic?

I think it's really unlikely. There's a lot of scaremongering. I remember a few years ago how the European Stability Mechanism was touted as a solution for crisis situations like this one. And now everybody's pretending it doesn't even exist. What the Greeks did tonight is claim back their sovereignty after years of austerity. It's a good lesson in Democracy

I think they have to leave the Euro eventually or much of the debt needs to be written off.

They can't go on endlessly piling on debt.

You could say that for every country in EUrope (the world ?). For example, in France the debt is 97.5% of GDP. It's so huge it's illegal as the law states their GDP should remain under 60%. And then there's Italy, Spain and so many other countries...

 

[Xando]

It was a pitiful threat to force Greek people vote a "Yes".

They exactly know how dangerous is to kick Greece for the Union and the Euro. They can of course but they will doom both doing so.

The EU will be fine if greece leaves. It's not as system relevant as it was a few years ago.

 

[Relaxed Muscle]

No. Greece voted that they did not want to be saved. This was clearly the question: do you take our plan to save your country? Greece said no. There is no "ball" anywhere now. The story is pretty much over.

You can't demand to stay in a club with those other cool guys but expect to be the only one who doesn't follow the club's rules. This does simply not work and Greece will have to exit the club

That's a very biased interpretation of the FMI meassures and the austerity programs that was chooking Greece people lives for the past years and threaten them to choke them for the rest of their lives with no solution and possibility to pay the loans.

The EU will be fine if greece leaves. It's not as system relevant as it was a few years ago.

It will show that EU is not truly a political and constitucional union and they being part of the EU is not a secure state.

It will put the whole concept into the dirt, and markets will react that way, and the Euro will be dead after Greece lave of it.

 

[Ether_Snake]

Same way people do now. You don't think the rich avoid taxes by mailing hard cash to offshore banks do you? Are you proposing that the government would have to oversee every transaction in the nation? how would this be any different than checking?

So is it the rich who are dodging taxes, or the average Greek?

Of course if there is an electronic currency, you pretty much end tax evasion on transactions among the population. That leaves the rich to deal with, but there's prison for that.

And of course if the currency is electronic all transactions are monitored. It wouldn't be much of an electronic currency otherwise.

 

[PdotMichael]

It will show that EU is not truly a political and constitucional union and they being part of the EU is not a secure state.

It will put the whole concept into the dirt, and markets will react that way, and the Euro will be dead after Greece lave of it.

Talking about overstating the own importance.

Any union with some of the strongest economies in this world can't be dead.

 

[alexandros]

How much has the house market dropped in athens? Whats the sqm price now vs before at its highest?

I don't know to be honest, I live in a small city in northern Greece.

 

[Relaxed Muscle]

Talking about overstating the own importance.

Any union with some of the strongest economies in this world can't be dead.

Not the countries, but the EU as the institution.

Politically speaking the EU will become a walking zombie.

 

[Coriolanus]

New thread for new news.