-
Hey, guest user. Hope you're enjoying NeoGAF! Have you considered registering for an account? Come join us and add your take to the daily discourse.
Greece has no money to pay the IMF, default imminent
- Thread starter ICKE
- Start date
- Status
That money is gone with or without a Grexit.
MonorailCat
Member
Everybody in Germany already knows that the money is gone - no matter what greece does.
Wafflecakes
Member
The Austerity will come anyways if they leave the Euro and their economy collapses and their new currency becomes worthless.
Yes, but politicians must finally tell the truth.
Zaraki_Kenpachi
Member
But that doesn't seem a reason not to do it. Either way austerity but with one of them you could have a lot of upside. That seems to be a reason to default.
Fenderputty
Banned
All money is fake money. Greece can't control its own cash supply in its own nation because the euro is tied to the interest of multiple nations. Greece should back out. The IMF has been shoving cuts on the Greek economy when they needed an injection.
Wafflecakes
Member
Do people really believe that the austerity is worse than the collapse of the alternative?
Coriolanus
Banned
economy has already collapsed, m8. You think anyone would've gone for austerity back in 2010 if they could see into the future and observe the awesome results that cut after cut produced? Hindsight is 20/20, sure, but insisting on the same measures when they've a solid track record of making the problem worse is downright obtuse.
Also devaluing their currency is something that they desperately need.
Additionally, there is no reason to believe that more austerity won't prolong the inevitable. No one is operating under the delusion that more austerity measures will decrease Greece's debt. That phantasy is long gone. The goalpost has been moved to "eat more austerity if you wanna keep using the euro".
So sure.
My words exactly!
Member
More like if you want to save your leg you amputate your gangrenous toe.
The video posted a few pages back was really on the mark... The past 40 years were nothing but pure destruction of productive sectors and industries while needless consuming and imports (even for agricultural products for which we were on the word's elite producers) rose to the sky. Greek parties and their puppet armies of worthless strawmen corrupted any and all sectors.
Add to this the decay of greek everyday people (in my eyes): Everyone and their dog regardless of skill or education wanted an office job or to work at a state service. Not comfort with having a carefree lifestyle, suddenly everyone wanted a second house, a second car (a car for every person in a family), loans for incessant holiday spending, loans for extravagant vacation, even for a night at the "bouzoukia". Everyone rushed to the big cities (half of the Greek population lives in Attica ffs) abandoning their hometowns and/or villages.
I say f*** that and let's reset the harm done. We will surely suffer but at least it we will stand on our own feet at the end.
To paraphrase a joke that we have here: "Are Greeks meant to be the EU's waitors?"
Which is disgusting.
The problem with tax evasion, corruption is well known.
I mean how long did it take until Greece finally took the Lagarde list serious.
How long did it take until the first one of that list was really getting the deserved punishment ?
The first big one was THIS year, after the list was given to the greece officials in 2010...
Well, I've seen it - you'll have to take my word for it. Or don't, it's your call. Also, if you think the offer was silly, I don't know what to tell you. Greece is in no position to turn down help and just ask for more and more cash that will just run out again and again.
The GDP has dropped 25% since the start of the crisis. The economy has already entered a Great Depression, it can't get much worse.
Masterful move by Tsipras. It wouldn't be right for the Greek government with its thin majority to take Greece out of the EU, nor would it be right for them to inflict the savage cuts demanded by its creditors and relinquish their financial sovereignty.
Why not? Russia has $365 billion in hard currency. It could afford to lend $20-30 billion to cover imports for the first tumultuous 6 months of introducing a national currency.
Ether_Snake
å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®
Next they will try to ostracize Greece to make sure it fails post-exit, it's the only remaining option to prevent other countries from heading in the same direction.
What will happen in countries like Spain is not that people will be afraid of "ending up like Greece", but rather afraid of being faced with the same people at the negotiation table, and be treated like Greece was; people will now expect their pensions to be on the line, to see their taxes raised, etc. People in Spain will want a political party in power that will negotiate in their favor, not one that will capitulate.
Just a few days ago, "Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy says the rise of new parties challenging the political establishment threatens Spain's recovery." The message this sends to people is one of fear, people won't accept that. Every country in such a position will vote for the parties that say they will stand up to the IMF and Co., because people will be afraid to be bullied.
So the Troika thought it could scare people away from such parties, but it has done the opposite. Podemos will be elected in Spain, then watch a new game unfold.
What will happen in countries like Spain is not that people will be afraid of "ending up like Greece", but rather afraid of being faced with the same people at the negotiation table, and be treated like Greece was; people will now expect their pensions to be on the line, to see their taxes raised, etc. People in Spain will want a political party in power that will negotiate in their favor, not one that will capitulate.
Just a few days ago, "Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy says the rise of new parties challenging the political establishment threatens Spain's recovery." The message this sends to people is one of fear, people won't accept that. Every country in such a position will vote for the parties that say they will stand up to the IMF and Co., because people will be afraid to be bullied.
So the Troika thought it could scare people away from such parties, but it has done the opposite. Podemos will be elected in Spain, then watch a new game unfold.
helloresolven
Member
Welp... referendum is going to be impossible then.
Austerity is causing a severe crisis in Greece that is directly harming the lives of most of the country's population. Austerity also has been proven by economists to be completely ineffective in helping this sort of economic crisis. Austerity will neither help the Greek people or allow them to make them any progress in repaying their creditors. So there is zero reason to continue austerity in the first place.
Whatever reasons austerity is being pushed on Greece, they are not being done with the interests of the Greek people in mind. Instead, it is probably being done with the interests of other EU countries in mind. As such, there is little reason for Greece to play along with austerity if they don't get any help from the rest of the EU in exchange. In this case, a default actually gives some long-term benefits to Greece, something that austerity doesn't offer.
Both cause suffering in the short-term, but only a default offers any long-term hope for a better Greece.
Theonik
Member
Conflicts of interests. The current opposition to Syriza in the Greek cabinet has also been fighting any investigation on their dealings since 2010 with everything at their disposal.
That offer was unreasonable and never would have been possible to implement. The base reason it was even made was to push the exact same rhetoric that you are trying to do now.
I find it stunning to be honest.
ClosingADoor
Member
Having a NATO member getting closer and closer to Russia. This will not cause any trouble at all.
Ether_Snake
å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®
There was never going to be a referendum. Tsipras knew they would end negotiations if he proposed a referendum, on ANY proposal.
Rawket Lawnchair
Member
I won't disagree that the general Greek population didn't do all of these things you mention (which at the end of the day are also what the general European population is doing as well), but their spending and lending is peanuts compared to the shady shit and deals that went on in politics these last few decades that ended up costing billions and billions to the country.
Greece as already signed a MoU on the Turkish stream project. The Greek government will be collecting billions of dollars annually on transit fees for Russian gas. So the two are already quite close.
Coriolanus
Banned
The two have been quite close for the whole of recent history. Euro sanctions on russia shafted them hard.
That wasn't help. That was political posturing.
ItWasMeantToBe19
Banned
Ssrly though, come up with better insults, Greeks.
petran79
Banned
The irony is that Greek education would not be able to function the last couple of years. The ministry used European funds destined to improve infrastructure in order to pay temporary teachers. Teachers hired for 8-9 months every year. But this was illegal. Those funds are not meant to be used as wages.
But without that money, schools would have no teachers at all.
Special Education schools would suffer the most and they' d have to close. So children with special needs would have to remain home. So their working parents would either not be able to work or pay someone to take care while they're gone.
Tragic situation really.
Greece supposedly had enough wealth to host the Olympic games, something only large or wealthy countries had dared to organize till then
But hosting the Olympic games in 2004 was the second major blunder after the Euro.
This contributed to the crisis in the long-run as well, adding billions to the national depth and wasting so many sports facilities. Most of the building are left unused or to rot.
Another factor is the countless military expenditures, because having Turkey nearby does not guarantee stability, if you want to protect the islands or the borders.
But without that money, schools would have no teachers at all.
Special Education schools would suffer the most and they' d have to close. So children with special needs would have to remain home. So their working parents would either not be able to work or pay someone to take care while they're gone.
Tragic situation really.
Greece supposedly had enough wealth to host the Olympic games, something only large or wealthy countries had dared to organize till then
But hosting the Olympic games in 2004 was the second major blunder after the Euro.
This contributed to the crisis in the long-run as well, adding billions to the national depth and wasting so many sports facilities. Most of the building are left unused or to rot.
Another factor is the countless military expenditures, because having Turkey nearby does not guarantee stability, if you want to protect the islands or the borders.
I think the same, but what happens next? Greece can't pay it's debts and go bankrupt but no one can force them out of the Euro.
sineclamor
Member
Ssrly though, come up with better insults, Greeks.
Calling something "Nazi". The only truly universal language.
1.21Gigawatts
Banned
That would have been a huge mistake.
The reason why europe wants to avoid greece dropping out of the EU is because this means that a lot of banks won't get their money back.
If the EU would let that happen lightly it would become a lot harder for other countries in trouble, like spain and portugal, to lend money from them.(meaning intrest rates increase drastically)
Greece dropping out could cause a domino effect because nobody wants to invest in countries in trouble anymore because they're scared they could lose their money.
But at this point the EU has done so much that banks surely recognize greece as a special case and don't increase intrest rates on countries like spain, italy and portugal.
Theonik
Member
Whole of Russia's history actually, and the whole of modern Greek history. Cold war and recent sanctions against Russia both shafted Greece hard. Both in some terrible spheres of influence game after WWII leading to a civil war in Greece, and basically devastating Greek industry in the case of the sanctions. Russia was also heavily investing in Northern Greece since the crisis and until the sanctions taking advantage of the drop in prices.
Stiflers Mom
Banned
Ssrly though, come up with better insults, Greeks.
Everything is nazi these days, if people don't like it...
Rawket Lawnchair
Member
Personally I don't think they'll allow Greece to leave, let alone default; they'll simply try to stall everything as much as possible so Tsipras starts losing support and calls for new elections; it's pretty much what Ether_Snake is saying. Tsipras' government will be used as an example. The country is too closely-bound to the EU and the EZ, and too geostrategically important, to be left to its fate.
And even if it is, the Greek people are resilient bastards. They've gone through Persian wars, Roman occupation, transformed the eastern empire to a Greek empire, survived a crusade and a 400-year long Turkish occupation, and then rose to tell the tale. In the last 130 years alone they've survived 3 bankruptcies, 2 Balkan Wars, WW1, a National Schism, genocide, 15 years of military coups, WW2 and 3 winters of death, a Civil War which crippled everyone, another 20 years of hardships and political instability, and a 7-year long military Junta. They've been around for more than 3 thousand years, they'll be around for even longer.
Coriolanus
Banned
I'm all for not hosting silly things like the olympics, and most certainly agree that the money could've been better used elsewhere, but... the data doesn't quite seem to pan out
There are good examples after all.
The baltic states worked through their crisis, despite really hard numbers.
The alleged economic "god" Paul Krugman was wrong on them.
SymbiantXenos
Member
Yup, Tuesday is the final deadline. Making the point of a referendum moot.
Yes it can. Much worse. Greece is a huge importer.
It's worse than that... they've stated the referendum appears to be on a package that isn't even agreed with the eurogroup.
I can't see how the ECB can continue providing liquidity funding to the Greek banks for much longer under the current situation.
Coriolanus
Banned
News to me.
Which was his whole point.
But if you consider higher government debt, higher unemployment and lower growth a good example, knock yourself out.
Here, the problem ain't that one must show that austerity works. Due to the human cost, one must show that austerity not only works, but is also the quickest and least harsh way to make an economy recover.
Due tot he way maritime boundaries work, the one thing you absolutely never wanna do is give a "sandbank" to anyone else. The cost is absolutely grotesque.
SymbiantXenos
Member
Scratching my head at the thought of asking for an extension, so it can be campaigned for a no vote for the very same thing..
This is a good example why our political system is so broken and corrupt. All bankrupt banks are too big to fail but an european country with more than 11 million people isn't.
I don't think that the population will support a foreign power that works against their interests and which is responsible for their bad situation. My guess is that the approval rate of Tsipras will still continue to rise. The EU has failed everywhere (refugees, foreign policy, regulation and taxation), I don't know why this should be an exception.
Ether_Snake
å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®
Tsipras said he was against the proposed offer, but was going to put it to a referendum. Is he supposed to zip his mouth? He's telling Greece he doesn't agree with the offer, but will leave it to the Greek people to make the call. That's what I would expect under any circumstance. Of course, the fact was that the referendum would never be allowed to go forward to begin with because the lenders don't want anything to be voted on by the people.
edit: Note that even if they want Tsipras to lose support, I don't think he will. Greeks will rally to stand against the lenders the more the situation goes bad, until Syriza has enough legitimacy to take any measure needed. And this will fuel Podemos in Spain. People see an enemy and they want a protector.
I think this is correct, but only in the very short term... I suspect if everything starts going bad, i.e. bank runs/collapse etc. then it will be a different story in a few weeks time.
This is simply a nonsensical strategy if he's going to campaign against it why would the eurozone/ECB continue continue funding the Greek government with the knowledge that they may well renege on the agreements they've made.
Frustrated_me
Member
So the Greek people don't want to pay the debts owed but the Greek people also want to stay in the EU?
I'm confused as to what is going on.
I'm confused as to what is going on.
Ether_Snake
å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®
Any proposal would have ultimately being put up as a referendum unless it was what Greece had specifically asked. So either way, Tsipras would be either for or against whatever proposal would be put forward. Your saying that he should only be for the proposal put to a referendum, but if he is against he has to stay silent or pretend he is for it? Every referendum has a government that is either in favor or against what is proposed.
- Status
Similar threads
- Locked
- Locked
- Locked