SymbiantXenos
Member
Motion of no confidence submitted of the greek gov (im guessing by the opposition)
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Greece has no money to pay the IMF, default imminent
- Thread starter ICKE
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The tricky bit here is that none of the Greek parties have said they actually want to decouple...I'd agree it does have certain attractive qualities, not least the ability to improve their export prospects but you'd have to agree it does come with a huge bag of unknown risks.
Greece is in such a tough spot, even devaluing won't do much because their biggest export is tourism and that industry is going to get hammered in the short run due to bad publicity. Long term, having control over the currency will be great, but short term they may not have much to export. Gaining competitiveness is huge, but you also need the goods/services.
The big problem with Greece is that there is really nothing to export. There is virtually no private sector in Greece and no companies that produce products that anybody outside Greece would want to buy. Even if they become a super cheap labor country it takes a long time to establish the factories, and finding a company willing to invest in Greece will be a pretty daunting task.
They have only themselves to blame. Keep going to the right, keep voting conservative liberal morons in high power positions.
Develop yourself! It's all about you! Don't share with people because everybody has to work for his own! Me me me me
Let people feel liberal capitalism for real, feel what you have supported for all these years.
Coriolanus
Banned
Short term they'll immediately be able to resume trade with one of their largest trading partners.
Ether_Snake
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What? That's ridiculous, it will benefit from being cheap. People are going to Greece to go to the beach, eating in restaurants, staying in hotels, not starting businesses. A few people who think there will protests might not go, but Greece is all about the islands and none of this happens there. I was there for a month during the big "protests" in may 2010, never saw a glimpse of it be it on the mainland or on the islands, even when I was in Athens on days/evenings that protests were supposedly happening, the only times I ever saw anything related to the "panic" was on hotels' TVs.
No European will be afraid to go on a vacation in Greece. Maybe a few Americans
Frankfurter
Member
Are you assuming that Greece will not only leave the Eurozone, but also the EU?
How true is that though? If they get kicked from the EMU, they wouldn't necessarily be removed from the EU. Crazy times.
What? That's ridiculous, it will benefit from being cheap. People are going to Greece to go to the beach, eating in restaurants, staying in hotels, not starting businesses. A few people who think there will protests might not go, but Greece is all about the islands and none of this happens there. I was there for a month during the big "protests" in may 2010, never saw a glimpse of it be it on the mainland or on the islands, even when I was in Athens on days/evenings that protests were supposedly happening, the only times I ever saw anything related to the "panic" was on hotels' TVs.
No European will be afraid to go on a vacation in Greece. Maybe a few Americans
I think it may kill this summer and next, very short term, 3 seasons tops including this one, but after that yeah I agree. Huge boom for that industry.
Wonder what it would do for development/housing as well, materials would be a concern but you will have cheap labor and cheap currency.
Don't really disagree, the euro has ruined their economy. Once they have a cheap currency with full trade access to Europe you'll industry and entrepreneurship take hold. It'll definitely take time...it won't be easy..but I still think it's the "least bad" option.
Ether_Snake
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So what if Greece decides to resume trade after being in a position where they no longer get loans? What will the EU do? Sanction them? The day Greece stops getting funding they'll resume trade with Russia regardless of agreements, they will have to. The EU would look mightily stupid trying to act against Greece when all they want is to resume some economic activity. First austerity demands, then blocking trade when they most need it? Let's see the EU try to stop that, it will be a funny one.
There isn't even that much support to block trade with Russia to begin with, it would come to an end if they tried to prevent Greece to resume their trade with them. You'd see other EU members using the opportunity to ask to end the sanctions.
Osiris
I permanently banned my 6 year old daughter from using the PS4 for mistakenly sending grief reports as it's too hard to watch or talk to her
Nope, they won't, EZ isn't the EU
Relaxed Muscle
Member
The actual plan B, actually involves kicking Greece out of the EU.
I don't think anyone knows what plan B really means at this point...
If they did that the entire thing would come crashing down pretty quickly.
It's probably gonna happen anyway. How many times have they been through this with Greece? 4? 5?
It depends on how ruthless Germany and her allies would be. That said, I suspect there are some EU members that support Greece's position, out of fear they'd be next.
Ether_Snake
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http://www.theguardian.com/business...s-referendum-tsipras-eurogroup-ministers-live
Haha, watch the lenders push even harder on saying "No! No! The deal wasn't final! It's just a draft! We didn't mean it! Don't say yes! We won't recognize this vote!" and then the people will go "Oh yeah? You don't want us to accept it? We accept it!". Then you'll have Dijsselbloem and Co. saying they reject Greece's acceptance of the proposal, looking like complete buffoons and having their true colors shown. They don't want the proposals to be accepted, especially not on a referendum, because it would give Syriza popular support. They want the Greek government to accept a proposal that will put the people against them, not solidifying the Greek government's support.
Maybe this is Varoufakis' thinking, sounds like check mate.
Haha, watch the lenders push even harder on saying "No! No! The deal wasn't final! It's just a draft! We didn't mean it! Don't say yes! We won't recognize this vote!" and then the people will go "Oh yeah? You don't want us to accept it? We accept it!". Then you'll have Dijsselbloem and Co. saying they reject Greece's acceptance of the proposal, looking like complete buffoons and having their true colors shown. They don't want the proposals to be accepted, especially not on a referendum, because it would give Syriza popular support. They want the Greek government to accept a proposal that will put the people against them, not solidifying the Greek government's support.
Maybe this is Varoufakis' thinking, sounds like check mate.
0.1.1.2.3.5.8.13.21.34.55
Banned
It certainly wouldn't be a good thing, but the EU/Germany would manage.
Greece on the other hand would be truly boned.
That would work if they had any credibility in the markets, which they don't.
If Greece defaults they will see an Argentina style debacle of lawsuits and chaos, with the country locked out of the markets and nobody willing to touch them with a barge pole investment wise.
At least Argentina has a large swathe of prime agricultural land and still has sympathy in their own continent. Greece has neither.
This is before the fact that any Greek gov in future will have to actually face up to the massive level of corruption, tax evasion and rent seeking in every level of governance, something they don't appear willing or able to do.
A return to the Drachma would lead to more, not less austerity, even with a devalution and default. I agree with the idea that Greece needed debt relief years ago, butthey haven't shown able to work hard enough and take governance seriously enough (Be it PASOk, ND and now Syriza) to work with the EU instead of against them.
Austerity remains unpopular in Spain, Italy, Ireland and Portugal, but sticking to the harsh rules has meant that they keep the benefits of the Euro, including QE and stability of their markets, this cannot be underestimated. Greece politically just thought they could do whatever, and keep this support and the latest stung ot calling a referendum is indicative of this.
Their bailout terms expire before the referendum, and now Varoufakis is surprised that the Eurogroup wont extend it because of this stunt, it's lunacy of the highest order. Wolfgang Schäuble actually suggested a referendum on this matter months ago, implying to get a mandate for negotiations and a possible settlement before the bailout expires, not to ask the people afterwards.
At the end of the day, while both sides have points, and I am very sympathetic to some of Greek demands, both Varoufakis and Alexis Tsipras have shown time again to not be able to negotiate in good faith. How the Eurogroup or the IMF have managed to negotiate with constant public relations disasters and disparagement is beyond me.
In the end, everyone loses, and frankly, I'm not sure Varoufakis especially cares. His role has been to make points, rather than make deals, and indeed, his actions and those of Tsipras has led us to this point.
2 Slight flaws to this:
1: Current odds on the betting sites is that Greece may well vote NO to this referendum.
2: Even if they voted yes, the Greek government has to then implement the deal, which just isn't going to happen as it. There would need to be fresh elections. Remember Syriza oppose this bailout deal so a yes vote would be voting against, rather than for Syriza policy. YES would undermine and possibly destroy Syriza in parliament.
Also, if the Eurogroup fold because of this and offer the Greeks more consessions? Well more fool them. The current mood does not look that way however and Schäuble, Tusk and the likes of Finland, Ireland and Portugal with have none of it.
Coriolanus
Banned
I dunno man, this seems a bit way off. I mean, i'm all for depicting Djblmomen as the shitbag that he is, and double for Schauble, but what you're suggesting is downright 11th dimension chess.
It already is. It's been boned, shafted, and proper fucked for quite a while now.
Theonik
Member
Better question is how Uncle Sam will react to all this.
ClosingADoor
Member
Yes, of course. 'They', 'people', 'you'. Must be nice to be far removed from reality to think an economic collapse will not touch you. It's disgusting to wish for the destruction of so many lives.
What are you even talking about? There has been no referendum yet, we don't know the results, we don't know what the EU will do after. You are just making up situations in your mind to fit your own narrative right now.
Ether_Snake
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It had better not, otherwise you can bet your ass that it will push all the other EU members who are in favor of re-establishing trade with Russia to outright commit to this and tell the US to fuck off. The US' support in the EU, especially regarding anything related to Russia, is on a very thin rope. If the US starts to outright put pressure on a EU member that has decided to re-establish trade with Russia, it would lift all the anti-Atlantic parties significantly. It would become a rallying point to protest against US interventionism in Europe. The US knows this, they aren't stupid. If anything, the US has an interest in helping out an ally and prevent them from falling into Russia's influence, not do the opposite and exacerbate their influence in a bunch of other EU countries at the same time.
This is bullshit.
You don't play games with a referendum, it's very dishonest politics.
In Switzerland, a referendum is there to challenge the government. That's the role of a referendum.
I've never heard of a government making a referendum while sending the message to vote "no" for it. Clearly the incompetent government just doesn't want to take the responsibility for the misery.
If the government doesn't like the deal, then it should man up and take the responsibility for the default. I'm confused to see people defending the government's move.
You don't play games with a referendum, it's very dishonest politics.
In Switzerland, a referendum is there to challenge the government. That's the role of a referendum.
I've never heard of a government making a referendum while sending the message to vote "no" for it. Clearly the incompetent government just doesn't want to take the responsibility for the misery.
If the government doesn't like the deal, then it should man up and take the responsibility for the default. I'm confused to see people defending the government's move.
Frankfurter
Member
It's either that and/or withholding payment to Greece. Greece currently gets a couple of billions from the EU every year.
PdotMichael
Banned
Oh hey, i see someone's trying to trot out the line on greece having a minor growth spurt before Syriza got the jerb. Time to pull out the graphic again.
oh hey, look at that. that growth? when government DIDN'T cut the budget that fiscal year. Whodafucken thunk.
But they reduced their budget in all years (since the crash). What are you talking?
From 2006 to 2015
Pretty much spot on. If theres to be a referendum it should be on staying in or leaving the Euro. This is the government trying to get another week.
Ether_Snake
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That's not true. In fact all referendums I know of involved a government being in favor or against the proposal. Look at Catalonia, Scotland, Quebec.
I have to wonder if this result was the plan of the Greek government after all, of they are just completely incompetent. They delayed all meaning full talks and proposals until the very last minute, submitting papers so shortly before meetings that they effectively couldn't be discussed, changed their demands by the day, and now surprised everyone with this referendum at a date where it is too late to properly implement it.
If they were serious they could have done all of this MONTHS ago. This looks like a political theatre designed to save face and maintain power at home. They must have known that this wouldn't work.
This is a sad day for Europe. The entire handling of this situation has been a disaster. I expect people to call for a stronger European government in the future that has the authority to deal with such situations as any state government would. Otherwise, why should we have confidence in Europe being able to handle similar situations properly in the future.
If they were serious they could have done all of this MONTHS ago. This looks like a political theatre designed to save face and maintain power at home. They must have known that this wouldn't work.
This is a sad day for Europe. The entire handling of this situation has been a disaster. I expect people to call for a stronger European government in the future that has the authority to deal with such situations as any state government would. Otherwise, why should we have confidence in Europe being able to handle similar situations properly in the future.
Lalalandia
Member
I have yet to see an Irish government propose a referendum they don't want to pass, they've been lukewarm on them but never asked for 'No'.
I feel for the Greek people they were sold a bill of goods by Syriza and are now stuck with a government that can't admit it promised them that water would flow uphill.
Relaxed Muscle
Member
The referendum is to give voice to the people of your country. For such an important moment, I think is the right thing to let your people vote in this matter. Greece tried to get a favor agreement that wouldn't choke them for years and more years, so because they don't see a solution and they have to decide to pay or not to pay, is only right to let people to choose, because that wil decide their destiny for the next years.
ClosingADoor
Member
I think it is pretty clear this group of politicians was incompetent. Not saying that they should just roll over and do exactly as the EU says, but from how they handled the situation it is clear there should have been other people in those positions (even if they would have had the same viewpoints and anti-austerity goals).
If anything, this will make people want to give the EU less power since it couldn't handle the situation. The anti-EU movements are stronger then ever.
True Savior
Member
GreekGaf , although some of the recent action makes me lose money (markets mostly) , i am 100 behind you guys. And when Podemos in Spain is elected , the entire Europe will shake and Germany and its trail of destruction will stop. Greece has been through so much , pushing austerity once again to this point is spitting in the face of the dignity of any human being.
Votes of confidence are parliamentary votes. Not popular ones. Let the people decide.
Votes of confidence are parliamentary votes. Not popular ones. Let the people decide.
Relaxed Muscle
Member
The fuck is this, Greece plans were always quite clear only to be blocked by the Troika and the EU, they always asked more cuts. What was Syriza to do? They promised their people to stop the austerity and that what they have been trying to do for months, and even so they had to kneel down several times an accept the FMI and EU demands...
That's what the Greek government want this to look like. But they failed to do two crucial things:
- Timing. They could have done all preparations and communications MONTHS ago, not when all agreed deadlines are already passed, and everybody is under pressure to reach some any conclusion.
- Consequences for the Greek government. As the Eurogroup correctly noted, in case of a 'Yes' vote in Greece, you can't rely on the current government to implement the program. They already stated that they do not support it. And if they are 'forced' by their people to implement it, they cannot be trusted to do an honest and good job. The right thing to do is to offer to resign in case of a 'Yes' vote and let the people elect a new government.
petran79
Banned
What? That's ridiculous, it will benefit from being cheap. People are going to Greece to go to the beach, eating in restaurants, staying in hotels, not starting businesses. A few people who think there will protests might not go, but Greece is all about the islands and none of this happens there. I was there for a month during the big "protests" in may 2010, never saw a glimpse of it be it on the mainland or on the islands, even when I was in Athens on days/evenings that protests were supposedly happening, the only times I ever saw anything related to the "panic" was on hotels' TVs.
No European will be afraid to go on a vacation in Greece. Maybe a few Americans
In Greece the odd thing is that if you are a foreign tourist it is much cheaper to make vacations than if you are a Greek.
They charge each room 60 Euro for Greeks and 20-30 Euro for tourists. I heard cases where Greeks pretended to be foreigners so that they could get cheaper rooms!
Also a lot of foreign tourist choose cheap all-in-one packages, which do not bring money to the local economy. They bring food from home and hardly buy anything from the local shops and restaurants.
Greeks dont make vacations anymore and if they do, it is just every weekend where they go to bathe at sea in nearby and cheap areas.
Also those that work in the tourism sector, just like in most countries, are underpaid, overworked and often without insurance. This situation is tolerated by the authorities since it brings money. If you think corruption on the political level is high, this is nothing compared to corruption on the local and regional level. Totally uncontrolled.
Are you serious. People are lining up to ATM's and have withdrawn over 600 million euros only today, because no one knows if the banks are even in service few weeks from now. It is easy to make those statements if you have nothing to lose.
The economic consequences will be extremely severe. Look at what happened in Argentina and that was during an economic boom, not one of the worst recessions since the Great depression. Running a business or supporting a family is not practical in a situation like this.
True Savior
Member
Correctly noted ? Who the fuck is the Eurogroup to think they have any authority in Greece sovereign ? Are these people completely lunatic ?
Ether_Snake
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If you are never getting a decent proposal, do you forever keep trying, or eventually give the people a chance to vote on it? If you do the later, must you pretend you are in favor of it? You're not making sense, think about the actual situation; at some point they would have given the population a referendum on a proposal, should they have waited forever (when they can't), for a good proposal that never comes?
You assume Podemos is going to govern Spain.
Sorc3r3r
Member
Interesting times ahead.
The Euro as we know it is failed, they will try patch it, but now it is only a question of time.
This will mean a totally new age of alliances, political election, and geopolitical shifts around the globe.
Even wars.
The greatest tecnocratic experiment on the edge to fail.
Thank you Greece, and no I am not sarcastic.
The Euro as we know it is failed, they will try patch it, but now it is only a question of time.
This will mean a totally new age of alliances, political election, and geopolitical shifts around the globe.
Even wars.
The greatest tecnocratic experiment on the edge to fail.
Thank you Greece, and no I am not sarcastic.
So, who is to blame here, me as a tourist or someone else? If it's local problem, fix it and don't put a blame on tourist who purchase cheap all-in-one packages.
It won't be that bad. Not that you're guilty of this but this thread is a lot of emotional noise. It's weird seeing wall st asset managers go on bloomberg tv and repeatedly say greece needs debt relief and then come on neogaf to see that a lot of posters are far more delusional and austere than they are.
Relaxed Muscle
Member
Timing is right, they were trying to get a deal for months, after it was clear that the FMI wouldn't let them do the reforms and their own economic program this was the only solution. People will decide if they want to keep being under FMI chocking economic program or not pay anymore. Is not a choose the Greek goverment can do alone.
And Syriza not accepting their people resolution is fan fiction and this point, they are a democratic party and they said numerous times they will respect the decision.
They weren't clear at all. The first time they submitted a comprehensive proposal was just a few days ago.
And what do you mean by 'blocked'? Are you suggesting that a single country can impose their opinion on the rest of the Eurozone by just ignoring the demands of the 18 other states who lend the money, including those states who have weaker economies than Greece, or who have implemented similar programs successfully?
All 19 states in the Eurozone have democratic mandates, and just because a single country says that it made unilateral election promises and got their people's votes, that does not give them the right to assume that the other governments have to accept it without having any say in it.
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