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[Arksy]

The problem everyone misses is culture. America prospered as it was a large geographically well placed and well resourced state which most importantly had a common language under-lying its open trade and movement. This is why the main economic risers are not groups of countries but specific large countries.

The currency union never met the requirements because it did not have a common language but also because the social fabrics of the countries are so different, they would never be able to agree regional distribution or common taxation. In fact the very idea is not what many Europeans want from Europe.

The modern UK is a great example of this. The very ideas of the currency union and redistribution are under threat by different social views. Europe does need to rethink the Euro. It was sold by those who yes wanted the 'currency union' to those who wanted integration and economic prosperity, what was not reflected on was that the European Union is a political 'project' it is not the norm of Europe.

However. And its a big fucking however. Most of Europe is fine. Surely theres ups and downs. Ireland was the big fuck up, a well of country smacked more heavily by the crisis thrown into huge debts and would have been better with the Sterling monetary policy; Spain and Italy are muddling through and youth unemployment is pretty poor. Honestly? For the Northern and Central European nations the Euro has been a positive, maybe not a big one economically but socially and diplomatically it has driven integration.

Greece has never been the concern. Its the concern of their affect on how people in other countries perceive their debt and how foreigners perceive their debt.

There's an argument that an optimal currency zone for Germany, Belgium, France, and some of the other northern European countries would've been fine. No one else though. It's ludicrous what's happening now.

 

[QuicheFontaine]

An astronomical amount.

I got the Irish figure from some analysts on the radio this morning. I couldn't find a breakdown for other countries. If Ireland contributed €350m I'd have to assume the UK figure is in the billions.

Fantastic

Edit:

I could be wrong here - hohoho - but I think that there were three separate bailout sources - one was an EU one, one was a Eurozone one and one was an IMF one. We contributed to the first and third but the Eurozone one was the largest by some way. Again, I could be mad wrong here but I seem to recall that being the case (and it sort of makes sense, given the relative impacts of the groups involved).

I thought that I read that the IMF got its money back. So did we get our money back for that one at least?

 

[Arksy]

Fantastic

>20bn is all I know. So not as much as Germany. 87bn is insane.

Edit: Sorry, 20bn is what the UK contribution to the IMF one was. I have zero clue if you guys are ever getting it back.

 

[W!CK!D]

What are they actualy voting about?

About giving the finger to the plutocracy that the EU is. What we see here is that the EU likes elections as long as the systemic nature isn't in question. Before Greece turns left, they'll let it go bankrupt. The people of Greece never had a chance since they voted the sister party of the German governing party out of office. This is a warning to other European countries that are in dept. It really is a misery.

 

[Caipirinha]

I doubt it, seems the economy there is recovering, even if a little fragile, growth forecast for 2015 at 3.5% to 4%, and Ireland was reported earlier this year to be forecast as the fastest growing economy in the EU.

Not at all, just look at average wages, the Irish "recovery" is for the 1% only. Just because the banks are bouncing back means nothing, Ireland relies on financial speculation as much if not more than ever so the next time a bubble bursts the economy will once again tank into the ground.

Culchie and dulchie alike, the moronic Irish political class has made no effort to build exports or sustainability in the Irish economy, they stole vast amounts of taxpayer money and handed it to the banks via. NAMA so that they could go right back to where they were prior to the bust.

 

[erale]

Let's be honest: no matter if Greece stays a euro member or not, most of the money was gone for good from the start.

 

[Ted Striker]

How much did the UK contribute? Is there a list somewhere?

Edit : nevermind

 

[Nikodemos]

There's an argument that an optimal currency zone for Germany, Belgium, France, and some of the other northern European countries would've been fine. No one else though. It's ludicrous what's happening now.

Well, that's what the EEC was in its infancy. An economic/political bloc for BeNeLux, France, (West) Germany, (eventually) Britain and (some of) the Scandinavian countries.

The big problem is that the initial framework has not been properly redesigned from its fundamentals upwards to account for vast differences in social/economic composition between the North-Central zone and the South/South-Eastern one. The various treaties have been superseded by newer ones, but those carry a large part of the old ones' baggage along.

About giving the finger to the plutocracy that the EU is.

Not so much the EU (since the Greeks by and large are quite fine with most of it) but the despicable corporate ballwashers in the EuroZone Group and the Comission.

 

[QuicheFontaine]

.

 

[erale]

About giving the finger to the plutocracy that the EU is. What we see here is that the EU likes elections as long as the systemic nature isn't in question. Before Greece turns left, they'll let it go bankrupt. The people of Greece never had a chance since they voted the sister party of the German governing party out of office. This is a warning to other European countries that are in dept. It really is a misery.

They can't vote about anything because Tsipras and his minions declined every proposal and left the meetings before a new one was made.

So now they'll spend 110 mio € (which they don't have) to let the Greece vote on.... nothing? Great job.

 

[Caipirinha]

The problem everyone misses is culture. America prospered as it was a large geographically well placed and well resourced state which most importantly had a common language under-lying its open trade and movement. This is why the main economic risers are not groups of countries but specific large countries.

The currency union never met the requirements because it did not have a common language but also because the social fabrics of the countries are so different, they would never be able to agree regional distribution or common taxation. In fact the very idea is not what many Europeans want from Europe.

I actually think that it's more about economic culture than anything else. We are now living in a world where the economic foundations of the United States would be considered "loony left wing" if suggested in modern Europe.

Even the economic policies of Richard Nixon would today be considered to the left of even our social democratic parties, that's how entrenched the neo-liberal consensus is in the world.

 

[oti]

Germany losing 87bn € will surely make my life here easier.

sigh
This is a nightmare.

 

[daxgame]

They can't vote about anything because Tsipras and his minions declined every proposal and left the meetings before a new one was made.

So now they'll spend 110 mio € (which they don't have) to let the Greece vote on.... nothing? Great job.

They declined every proposal? No they didn't. They actually brought in their corrections, which were never taken in consideration. You know, agreements are usually done in two.

 

[Heartfyre]

Not at all, just look at average wages, the Irish "recovery" is for the 1% only. Just because the banks are bouncing back means nothing, Ireland relies on financial speculation as much if not more than ever so the next time a bubble bursts the economy will once again tank into the ground.

Culchie and dulchie alike, the moronic Irish political class has made no effort to build exports or sustainability in the Irish economy, they stole vast amounts of taxpayer money and handed it to the banks via. NAMA so that they could go right back to where they were prior to the bust.

Public sector wages are on the up, thanks to the improving economy. It's hardly "only" the 1%.

 

[Nilaul]

Greece actually exported before the Euro currency and the law changes the EU borught in. Had it own industries too. Now those are gone.

IMF decided was also planning to ensure that the medical and tourism industry collapses too (cost of vat spyke would had been passed to consumer)

 

[W!CK!D]

Well, that's what the EEC was in its infancy. An economic/political bloc for BeNeLux, France, (West) Germany, (eventually) Britain and (some of) the Scandinavian countries.

The big problem is that the initial framework has not been properly redesigned from its fundamentals upwards to account for vast differences in social/economic composition between the North-Central zone and the South/South-Eastern one. The various treaties have been superseded by newer ones, but those carry a large part of the old ones' baggage along.

I disagree.

Wouldn't it be perfect for a capitalist system to have controlled crashes in small parts of the union instead of letting the whole union crash at once? Or in other words: Wouldn't it be perfect if you always had a new market in your own controllable system with a strong economic growth? Capitalism can't function without crashes (limited resources). Limitless growth requires resets. And wouldn't it be great if you can take away more and more power from the people with every new economic problem that occurs (pressure from healthy economies)?

It's a disgusting thought, I know, but it's a disgusting world we live in.

 

[PdotMichael]

A very strong argument indeed. You invalidated all my arguments. Give this man the Bundesverdienstkreuz.

You'd never dare ask yourself, what was first: Corruption or the black market? If your people go lengths not to pay taxes, with methods that would be so fucking easy to uncover, you as a government have a fucking problem and you should solve it. And again, because of the corruption, nobody fucking cared.

Governing a state is to a certain degree mass psychology. If your base has serious trust issues, you have to combat them.

By the way, seeing as you speak in absolutes, so there's no excuse for not paying taxes? Let's assume your tax money would be used to kill, say, palestinians, would you be thrilled to pay taxes? I wouldn't.

But of course, the miracle answer from Germans for this crisis is "the greeks are lazy and sleazy and have my money and I hate everything "

So based on your nonsesical logic the reason why the Greeks aren't paying taxes is because they don't know if the state would use that money to kill palestinians?

And indeed you can only talk in absolutes if not paying taxes and corruption damage a country like Greece in the way it did in the past decades.

Be more specific about what? Greek elite's interests have been affecting Greece's paths and decisions even before the country was founded almost 200 years ago. Gonna be difficult to sum up all that story in post.

You know that the majority of the Greeks wants to stay in the Eurozone even today. Trying to turn it as only a small Greek elite was interested in the Euro is plain wrong.

 

[Acorn]

You dont think the chronology of this whole debacle is strange? Referendums should be carefully thought out, giving issues time to be aired and the voting public time to digest and make informed, thoughtful decisions. This is beyond rushed.

It is by definition, strange.

It's essentially about leaving the euro for all intents and purposes. To not give that decision to the citizens would be worse than having a snap referendum.

 

[CyclopsRock]

Public sector wages are on the up, thanks to the improving economy. It's hardly "only" the 1%.

Not only that, but whilst banks recovering certainly isn't everything, it's still a very important precursor to growth. I think people have gotten into such a grumpy anti-bank mood that they forget how integral sources of investment and loans are in order for businesses that aren't banks to grow and expand is.

 

[W!CK!D]

Germany losing 87bn € will surely make my life here easier.

sigh
This is a nightmare.

Don't worry. There will be enough proxy wars and we will sell plenty "Fritz Werner" factories to these regions. No embargo can stop German high-tech machinery. ^_^

 

[Kamion]

So not as much as Germany. 87bn is insane.

Yeah, it's also the number that people on German social media always quote in their Greece hate posts. I mean sure, it's a scary number.
I'm just really scared for my Greek friends living in Germany lately, this is getting out of hand :/

Then again this whole situation has been out of hand for quite a while.

 

[Aureon]

The economy cannot run without banks either..

We're not talking Greek banks.

We're talking German, French, Italian banks getting bailed out of having to lose the greek debt.

Also, here's the Tsipras proposal to the eurogroup, in red changes by the eurogroup:
http://www.skai.gr/files/1/aalex7/5pagedoc2462015.pdf

 

[QuicheFontaine]

It's essentially about leaving the euro for all intents and purposes. To not give that decision to the citizens would be worse than having a snap referendum.

Well, that's just, like, your interpretation man:

To those who say that, effectively, this is a referendum on the euro, my answer is: You may very well say this but I shall not comment. This is your judgement, your opinion, your interpretation. Not ours! There is a logic to your view but only if there is an implicit threat that a No from the Greek people to the institutions’ proposal will be followed up by moves to eject Greece, illegally, out of the euro. Such a threat would not be consistent with basic principles of European democratic governance and European Law.

I like how he's basically doing a Francis Urquhart here.

 

[SamVimes]

Already posted? Krugman would vote not at the referendum http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2015/06/28/grisis/

 

[Machspeed007]

We're not talking Greek banks.

We're talking German, French, Italian banks getting bailed out of having to lose the greek debt.

http://www.skai.gr/files/1/aalex7/5pagedoc2462015.pdf

We're talking about private banks sustaining the Greek economy. They could well be Spanish, Greek or Scottish, doesn't really matter who own them as long as they are private institutions.

 

[ElTorro]

Already posted? Krugman would vote not at the referendum http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2015/06/28/grisis/

And the reason is that he, contrary to Syriza, supports a Grexit.

Which at this point is the right thing to do. Greece would be able to devalue their currency and become competitive again. A debt relief would be far easier to achieve, and EU money would now directly go to humanitarian help to support Greece during the initial hardships. Creditors and banks would finally have to publicly accept the obvious reality that Greece cannot pay all credits back in full, and our Governments would finally have stop bullshitting us about this. The money is lost.

Many people say that such a move would destroy the confidence in the European project and the Euro, but I'd say that this damage has already been done by how Europe and Greece have handled this crisis. There is no point in denying and delaying the inevitable.

The European project has had more success stories than failures. I just hope that the long-term trend will lead to more Europe and a stronger European administration. This is not just about Greece. The next challenge will be to keep Great Britain in the EU, and for that the last thing we need is cynicism.

 

[Caipirinha]

Public sector wages are on the up, thanks to the improving economy. It's hardly "only" the 1%.

And yet in real terms the Irish are poorer, with less disposable income and higher cost of utility bills etc.

For example:

The latest data, for the Republic, come from the Central Statistics Office (Earnings, Hours and Employment Costs Survey external link) – EHECS – and show a fall in average weekly earnings (down by 7.8% between the final quarter of 2008 and the third quarter of 2014). However, when price inflation (as measured by the consumer price index) is factored in, the real value of average weekly earnings is down by 11.5% from its real peak in the 4th quarter of 2009 to the third quarter of 2014.

http://www.nerinstitute.net/blog/2014/12/12/the-wages-elephant-is-in-the-domestic-parlour/

Ireland, along with Spain, Italy, Portugal etc. are still thoroughly in the shit. Ireland is so exposed to fluctuations in the banking sector that even IF the country managed to recover i real terms, which it hasn't, it's economy would still be annihilated by another bubble.

The Irish government is still convinced it can base it's economy on institutionalised gambling rather than exports and thinks that success is cherry picking a couple of stats that seem to show nominal recovery, rather than the welfare of it's people.

 

[Caipirinha]

I disagree.

Wouldn't it be perfect for a capitalist system to have controlled crashes in small parts of the union instead of letting the whole union crash at once? Or in other words: Wouldn't it be perfect if you always had a new market in your own controllable system with a strong economic growth? Capitalism can't function without crashes (limited resources). Limitless growth requires resets. And wouldn't it be great if you can take away more and more power from the people with every new economic problem that occurs (pressure from healthy economies)?

It's a disgusting thought, I know, but it's a disgusting world we live in.

Capitalism is an ideology far to the left of neo-liberalism, and we live in a world of the latter not the former. The idea of letting the rich pay the house when they gamble and lose is tantamount to Marxism now.

 

[Nikodemos]

We're not talking Greek banks.

We're talking German, French, Italian banks getting bailed out of having to lose the greek debt.

Also, here's the Tsipras proposal to the eurogroup, in red changes by the eurogroup:
http://www.skai.gr/files/1/aalex7/5pagedoc2462015.pdf

Frankly, most of those changes are pure garbage, particularly the ones about completely eliminating farmer subsidies (since, obviously, in the EuroGroup's vivid imagination, that would definitely push Greece towards becoming an industrial powerhouse, rather than further pauperising an already highly economically fragilised smallhold farmer class). And the (terrifyingly idiotic) insistence on immediate adoption, rather than starting next budget year (as would any prudent country do, given that budgets are pretty much locked in for a year and any heavy changes as prescribed in the document would create considerable problems), clearly shows that their negotiating impetus is not even in the same time zone as good faith bargaining.

If I had to deal with such individuals on a regular basis, I'd seriously consider bringing an obrez along. Never know when I'd have to shoot my way out of that vipers' nest.

 

[anonymous_abc]

Already posted? Krugman would vote not at the referendum http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2015/06/28/grisis/

Is the exact wording of the referendum question already published?

 

[Caipirinha]

As for your other points, those are the very reasons why the EU has never, and will never work in its current interation. It's a failed experiment since day 1.

The Eurozone is working exactly as intended, it is not working Europeans that are supposed to benefit from this project, it's the banking sector, and the banking sector has made out like bandits from the recession. Now it's coming back to bite them in the ass it's simply time again to shift those loses onto working people so that the banks can continue their free reign.

The idea that the Eurozone has failed because the Greeks are sliding into poverty is mistaken - the Troika have no interest in the well-being of the Greeks or, if it came to it, you or I. Everything had been working as intended for them, it's only now that a government has dared suggest an alternative that they feel threatened.

 

[nature boy]

Referendum might be open to legal challenges

Colin Freeman writes from Athens:

There are also doubts about whether the government can get the referendum arranged within sufficient time limits for it to be constitutionally legal.
According to Constantine Michalos, president of the Union of Greek Chambers of Commerce and Industry, the constitution says that the ballot papers have to be printed and ready five days prior to the referendum, which would mean by Tuesday.
As he points out, it hasn't even been decided yet as to what exact question - or questions - will be put on the paper. It's possible, perhaps, that it will go ahead regardless, but that could leave it open to legal challenge.

.

 

[Acorn]

Well, that's just, like, your interpretation man:



I like how he's basically doing a Francis Urquhart here.

Good lord.

European law also says you can't impose capital controls didn't stop Cyprus or you doing it Mr Varoufakis.

 

[PdotMichael]

And the reason is that he, contrary to Syriza, supports a Grexit.

Which at this point is the right thing to do. Greece would be able to devalue their currency and become competitive again. A debt relief would be far easier to achieve, and EU money would now directly go to humanitarian help to support Greece during the initial hardships. Creditors and banks would finally have to publicly accept the obvious reality that Greece cannot pay all credits back in full, and our Governments would finally have stop bullshitting us about this. The money is lost.

Many people say that such a move would destroy the confidence in the European project and the Euro, but I'd say that this damage has already been done by how Europe and Greece have handled this crisis. There is no point in denying and delaying the inevitable.

The European project has had more success stories than failures. I just hope that the long-term trend will lead to more Europe and a stronger European administration. This is not just about Greece. The next challenge will be to keep Great Britain in the EU, and for that the last thing we need is cynicism.

You want to read something about how "competive" Greece was the last time when they had an own currency.

And no the debt wouldn't suddely disappear, in fact it would be worse because the own Greece currency would be on par to Monopoly money while the debt is still in Euro.

 

[erale]

They declined every proposal? No they didn't. They actually brought in their corrections, which were never taken in consideration. You know, agreements are usually done in two.

Well yeah. But to be honest, they already got a shitload of money and they still want and NEED more money. So trying to piss the people that give you the money doesn't sound smart.

Obviously the "corrections" didn't sound reasonable to the loaners. After all its their money, right?

 

[erale]

Germany losing 87bn € will surely make my life here easier.

sigh
This is a nightmare.

Well the money was gone the moment we gave it to Greece. The question was how much we would be getting back eventually. So it's not like anyone will lose more money coming 1st of July.

And I pretty sure the loaners always knew they wouldn't get all of their money back.

 

[Theonik]

Well yeah. But to be honest, they already got a shitload of money and they still want and NEED more money. So trying to piss the people that give you the money doesn't sound smart.

Obviously the "corrections" didn't sound reasonable to the loaners. After all its their money, right?

And so we reach an impasse.

 

[Arksy]

You want to read something about how "competive" Greece was the last time when they had an own currency.

And no the debt wouldn't suddely disappear, in fact it would be worse because the own Greece currency would be on par to Monopoly money while the debt is still in Euro.

Greece would obviously need to default on their repayments otherwise there would be no point.

 

[Acorn]

How much did the UK contribute? Is there a list somewhere?

Thought Osborne got us out of that?

 

[Caipirinha]

lol Juncker just claimed that the troika never demanded Greece cut pensions as part of their deal, do they really think people have been paying so little attention? This guy is nothing but a fucking liar.

 

[Bradach]

And yet in real terms the Irish are poorer, with less disposable income and higher cost of utility bills etc.

Compared to Q4 2008, certainly. Compared to a couple of years ago, nope. Things are better in Ireland today than they have been in years. No question.

Capitalism is an ideology far to the left of neo-liberalism, and we live in a world of the latter not the former. The idea of letting the rich pay the house when they gamble and lose is tantamount to Marxism now.

Agreed.

 

[Musician]

And so the shrill and strident voices of the left pathetically scream for the heads of the elite, trying to overpower the emotionless, droning mantra of the right "Money over people, market over compassion, growth... growth... growth..."

I'm so fucking sick of the whole thing. Extremism is the only thing that sticks anymore. Anyone want to move to some sort of self sufficient farm in the middle of nowhere with me?

I'm tired of this game. The rules suck. I don't want to play along any more.

 

[Deleted member 231381]

I could be wrong here - hohoho - but I think that there were three separate bailout sources - one was an EU one, one was a Eurozone one and one was an IMF one. We contributed to the first and third but the Eurozone one was the largest by some way. Again, I could be mad wrong here but I seem to recall that being the case (and it sort of makes sense, given the relative impacts of the groups involved).

IIRC the UK was the single biggest contributor to the Irish bailout, though.

 

[oti]

Well the money was gone the moment we gave it to Greece. The question was how much we would be getting back eventually. So it's not like anyone will lose more money coming 1st of July.

And I pretty sure the loaners always knew they wouldn't get all of their money back.

That doesn't matter to the general German population.

 

[Nicktendo86]

What an absolute clusterfuck.

 

[Nikodemos]

lol Juncker just claimed that the troika never demanded Greece cut pensions as part of their deal, do they really think people have been paying so little attention? This guy is nothing but a fucking liar.

He's a lying sack of shit, just like all corporate ballwashers. The document provided in the link clearly states, in the EuroGroup revised version:

- Gradually phase out the solidarity grant (EKAS) <note: a social grant to pensioners with very small pensions> for all pensioners by end-December 2017;
- freeze monthly guaranteed contributory pension limits in nominal terms until 2021 <note: this would affect future pensioners, as their contributions would be limited over an interval of time, retroactively causing them to receive smaller pensions>;

 

[W!CK!D]

Extremism is the only thing that sticks anymore. Anyone want to move to some sort of self sufficient farm in the middle of nowhere with me?

The "middle" is where our governing parties of Europe see themselves. The "middle" is the status quo.

 

[ElTorro]

lol Juncker just claimed that the troika never demanded Greece cut pensions as part of their deal, do they really think people have been paying so little attention? This guy is nothing but a fucking liar.

Technically speaking, the Troika only demanded a credible proposal from Greece to meet specific budgetary target goals (which they reduced from 3% GDP to 1% GDP over the course of the negotiations). They don't really care about the specifics of that proposal and how that surplus is achieved as long as the proposal is credible.

The problem with Greece's proposals just was that they are not credible. The documents are publicly available to everyone, so everyone can have a look for themselves. The Greek proposal was very unspecific, relied solely on tax increases which they assumed to be collectable (and which they never succeeded to collect in the past) and which they assumed to have no impact on the economy, and in parts on projected tax incomes pulled out of their asses (like 5G license fees).

And yes, there are no demands to actually cut pensions in the latest proposal. Look it up, it's not in the document. They mainly demanded to get rid of early retirements, which are mostly just a bandaid for the lack of a real social security net in Greece. Which lack I still cannot understand.

 

[Caipirinha]

He's a lying sack of shit, just like all corporate ballwashers. The document provided in the link clearly states, in the EuroGroup revised version:

God I really hope the Greeks are scared into voting yes this week, it's time to shove Jancker's bullshit right back up his arse where it came from once and for all.

 

[operon]

Thought Osborne got us out of that?

not out of the imf contribution