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[PdotMichael]

So why did Greece joined the Eurozone? They got money through the EU anyway.

The argument that Greece was just a place for Germany to dump it's export goods isn't even correct because the German export within the EU room didn't increase significantly but most of it's surplus happened outside of the EU where they were even more expensive than other export nations like China, Japan or USA.

The real problem was and is the black market in Greece and would have fucked them even with 20 own currencies.

 

[Glasshole]

Replace Greece with any other eurozone country and still, they manage.
Not anyone has to make exactly what Germany is producing at the exact price point.
Anyway, my feeling is that we are going slightly off-topic and I apologize for encouraging it.
My point is that Greece should be able to run in the positive gains with some smart effort, even in the eurozone. I don't buy the "it's impossible, Greece is forever doomed" rhetoric.

As long as they are in the eurozone, this is the case.

Greece would have to go through an immense, highly unlikely economic wonder boom phase to even begin starting old credits back. And especially in this day and age, with the crisis going on, and the EU deciding that Greece isn't allowed to trade with one of its most important customers, Russia, it becomes 99% impossible.

 

[Arksy]

Replace Greece with any other eurozone country and still, they manage.
Not anyone has to make exactly what Germany is producing at the exact price point.
Anyway, my feeling is that we are going slightly off-topic and I apologize for encouraging it.
My point is that Greece should be able to run in the positive gains with some smart effort, even in the eurozone. I don't buy the "it's impossible, Greece is forever doomed" rhetoric.

Yes, and all of the agricultural economies, Spain, Italy, Greece, and Portugal are suffering immensely. The manufacturing economies, such as France, Belgium and Germany are doing quite well.

 

[Glasshole]

The real problem was and is the black market in Greece and would have fucked them even with 20 own currencies.

You have no idea what you are talking about.

 

[PdotMichael]

You have no idea what you are talking about.

In what world wouldn't a black market of the size of 40% of the official GDP not fuck your country?

 

[Machspeed007]

So why did Greece joined the Eurozone? They got money through the EU anyway.

The argument that Greece was just a place for Germany to dump it's export goods isn't even correct because the German export within the EU room didn't increase significantly but most of it's surplus happened outside of the EU where they were even more expensive than other export nations like China, Japan or USA.

The real problem was and is the black market in Greece and would have fucked them even with 20 own currencies.

I don't know how significant the black market is in Greece but add that to the list of things that need to be improved if possible. Howerver, my list of weird things I cannot explain are:
- ~1000 euros pensions (reason being that the pension actually acts as a social aid for the whole family, but why still have social aid if that's correct?)
- 13th salary/pension?
- more than 1 milion people budgetary aparatus for 11 milion coutry population. Is this because a lot of services are not private entreprises?

I mean, I know that the "greek way of living" is special and more socially oriented, but still.. running something like this is meant to create problems in the end I think.

 

[Glasshole]

In what world wouldn't a black market of the size of 40% of the official GDP not fuck your country?

First of all, define a black market. I don't think it means what you think it means.

Second of all, if you mean what I think you do, everybody knew about this - and no politician, no institute ever did or proposed something to fight against it.

Thirdly, read about the history of Greece and you'll see why there is zero trust. During times of economic uprising in europe, they had a dictator installed by the US because they were afraid Greece might ally with the soviets.
That's just one story. The state in Greece has proven time and time again that it isn't trustworthy. Go ahead and pay VAT for that.

 

[Souldestroyer Reborn]

German here. I'm really disgusted what our government and major media outlets currently do: The first one are only defending the interest of the banks while not having the balls to defy them. The second one is further deteriorating the solidarity with Greece by employing polemic and propaganda (fuck any tabloid in this matter). Of course Greece had her fair share in fucking the situation up with corruption and low taxes for the rich. But we, as EU, have let them into the EURO zone so it is ultimately our responsibility to burden. We allowed the policians and criminals from Goldman Sachs to deceive us, and now has the Greek population to bleed out for the mistakes of others? Give me a fucking break...

I pretty much agree with this.

The onus is on the EU here in afraid.

The whole point of the EU, or one of its main benefits was to be able to spread problems throughout and deal with it as a collective.

This whole situation with Greece has been used as nothing more than a fucking money making scheme for the countries in power to do so.

 

[PdotMichael]

First of all, define a black market. I don't think it means what you think it means.

Second of all, if you mean what I think you do, everybody knew about this - and no politician, no institute ever did or proposed something to fight against it.

Thirdly, read about the history of Greece and you'll see why there is zero trust. During times of economic uprising in europe, they had a dictator installed by the US because they were afraid Greece might ally with the soviets.
That's just one story. The state in Greece has proven time and time again that it isn't trustworthy. Go ahead and pay VAT for that.

What random nonsense.

There are no excuses for not paying taxes, corruption anything else that destroys the integrity of the state and the future of the next generations.

 

[Ted Striker]

So why did Greece joined the Eurozone? They got money through the EU anyway.

The argument that Greece was just a place for Germany to dump it's export goods isn't even correct because the German export within the EU room didn't increase significantly but most of it's surplus happened outside of the EU where they were even more expensive than other export nations like China, Japan or USA.

The real problem was and is the black market in Greece and would have fucked them even with 20 own currencies.

Greece joined Eurozone, because the economical elite wanted to use Euro's benefits (as a stronger currency than Drachma) to up an economic regional power. They closed factories in Greece and set up new ones in countries like Macedonia or Bulgaria, where wages and taxes were lower, all while hailing their patriotism and devotion to the country's growth, which was fueled by cheap loans from banks , real estate bubbles and overconsumption.

 

[oti]

German here. I'm really disgusted what our government and major media outlets currently do: The first one are only defending the interest of the banks while not having the balls to defy them. The second one is further deteriorating the solidarity with Greece by employing polemic and propaganda (fuck any tabloid in this matter). Of course Greece had her fair share in fucking the situation up with corruption and low taxes for the rich. But we, as EU, have let them into the EURO zone so it is ultimately our responsibility to burden. We allowed the policians and criminals from Goldman Sachs to deceive us, and now has the Greek population to bleed out for the mistakes of others? Give me a fucking break...

What I do find a bit unsettling about German media is its fixation on the market. Everytime we have a crisis or a catastrophe (such as the Lufthansa crash) the second headline in their news coverage is about the stock market.

 

[PdotMichael]

Greece joined Eurozone, because the economical elite wanted to use Euro's benefits (as a stronger currency than Drachma) to up an economic regional power. They closed factories in Greece and set up new ones in countries like Macedonia or Bulgaria, where wages and taxes were lower, all while hailing their patriotism and devotion to the country's growth, which was fueled by cheap loans from banks , real estate bubbles and overconsumption.

Can I have more inforamtion about the economical elite?

 

[Kathian]

All this fucking handwringing. Truth is Greece end the Eurozone countries know full well that there are three options:
- Stay in the Euro and spend 20 years in and out of recession and austerity paying their debt off.
- Leave the Euro and spend 20 years in control of their currency making it far more manageable.
- Stay in the Euro. Default and end up out of the Euro anyway.

Option One has been undoable since the start of the year, it was a sign that the Greeks could not manage with Austerity. Again no point blaming other countries, Greece wants to stay in the Euro as much as others want them to - simple truth is the idea in itself is folly.

The whole point of the EU, or one of its main benefits was to be able to spread problems throughout and deal with it as a collective.

This is not the point of the EU. Their are groups of EU nations who want different things but for many independence is also a key idea of the EU. That includes independence from other members. Should have left the Euro by now, sign the current deal and have a referendum on the Euro then if the people agree to stay in, leave if they don't and renegotiate the deal.

 

[East Lake]

Can I have more inforamtion about the economical elite?

Are you going to explain the black market first?

 

[Ted Striker]

What random nonsense.

There are no excuses for not paying taxes, corruption anything else that destroys the integrity of the state and the future of the next generations.

People don't trust the state, they believe they don't get services worth the money asked for. At least this is what you gonna hear most of the time. Reality is the system can be cheated, so if you can evade paying taxes and keep the money why care what's happening to the country. I know rich people that used all sort of tax evasions schemes, while complaining for the country's demise at the same time.

 

[Polari]

So chaps, assuming Greece does leave (as looks highly probable right now), how bad do we expect the fallout to be?

 

[Nikodemos]

What I do find a bit unsettling about German media is its fixation on the market. Everytime we have a crisis or a catastrophe (such as the Lufthansa crash) the second headline in their news coverage is about the stock market.

Because that's where many private pension funds are. It bears reminding that Germany is the Japan of the West, with large numbers of pensioners or soon to become pensioners and dropping natality.

That's pretty much what the Troika is doing right now with respect to Greece.

And that's immensely hypocritical of them, since the Greece of 2010 was in just as much shit as the Greece of today. The only difference between then and now is that in 2010 the likes of DeutscheBank, KommerzBank, SocGen, CredAgri, Unicredit etc. were leveraged up to their eyeballs in Greek bonds. After they had managed to quietly discard them off their balance sheets (mostly courtesy of Mario Draghi), they quickly reverted to the trusty old libertarian tune of "fuck you, I got mine".

 

[jakonovski]

So chaps, assuming Greece does leave (as looks highly probable right now), how bad do we expect the fallout to be?

Economically, Greece is not big in the long run, but the politicial ramifications are really bad. Basically the euro will be exposed as a sham, and the EU as a fair weather alliance that will throw its members under a bus. Because it's all crony capitalism for the benefit of the banks.

 

[Ted Striker]

Can I have more inforamtion about the economical elite?

What kind of information?

 

[videogamer]

First of all, define a black market. I don't think it means what you think it means.

Second of all, if you mean what I think you do, everybody knew about this - and no politician, no institute ever did or proposed something to fight against it.

Thirdly, read about the history of Greece and you'll see why there is zero trust. During times of economic uprising in europe, they had a dictator installed by the US because they were afraid Greece might ally with the soviets.
That's just one story. The state in Greece has proven time and time again that it isn't trustworthy. Go ahead and pay VAT for that.

If the Greeks don't believe in paying taxes, then they shouldn't elect governments that spend money they don't have. Folly.

 

[Kathian]

Economically, Greece is not big in the long run, but the politicial ramifications are really bad. Basically the euro will be exposed as a sham, and the EU as a fair weather alliance that will throw its members under a bus. Because it's all crony capitalism for the benefit of the banks.

Well no. I'll be that where members are indebted the country cannot rely on common monetary policy so is more likely to default.

Basically Europe will move to dealing with issues as the debt racks up and not before and large debts will be frowned on if your economy is not similar to other European countries.

 

[Bradach]

If I woke up to be told that I could only withdraw €60 per day for the next week when there is a high risk that all my savings will disappear in the coming weeks I would feel angry, very angry. My blood would be boiling in fact.

It wouldn't surprise me to see riots in Greece during the week

 

[oti]

A translated speech about the crisis by Wagenknecht (faaaaaaaar left) is all the rage on my FB feed right now. I'm not surprised.

 

[Souldestroyer Reborn]

This is not the point of the EU. Their are groups of EU nations who want different things but for many independence is also a key idea of the EU. That includes independence from other members. Should have left the Euro by now, sign the current deal and have a referendum on the Euro then if the people agree to stay in, leave if they don't and renegotiate the deal.

Of course it is. Its one of the many points of the EU. However it only works if the other members put aside their own greed and wants. Which of course will never happen because everyone is looking out for themselves.

As for your other points, those are the very reasons why the EU has never, and will never work in its current interation. It's a failed experiment since day 1.

Greece was fucked from the get go regardless of what it did or didn't do. Her hands were tied by being in the Union, so she couldn't help herself.

The powerful Union members helped Greece out by giving them loans which they took out themselves, however they charged Greece higher interest, y'know, so they can make something out of their fellow members downfall.

Greece accepted the offer and the strings which was attached. The strings however was the equivalent of doing CPR while stabbing them in the heart. Austerity, when used in the situation Greece was/is in never works. The IMF has admitted to such and produced a report recently saying that they were wrong.

Austerity only works in special situations where certain conditions are met.

By forcing the Austerity measures on Greece you're effectively suffocating them and reducing their growth.

Now the EU wants more austerity, while again, adding some interest on top for themselves, which helps no-one.

Either way the EU is a failure for letting Greece in in the first place. It's a failure due to self-interest. It's a failure due to having a single currency where the members states are battling each other within, ultimately destroying each other and leaving everyone in a scenario where it's the survival of the fittest.

 

[Theonik]

If I woke up to be told that I could only withdraw €60 per day for the next week when there is a high risk that all my savings will disappear in the coming weeks I would feel angry, very angry. My blood would be boiling in fact.

It wouldn't surprise me to see riots in Greece during the week

*shrug*

 

[TheLaughingStock]

How are the Greeks so different then their neighbours so they can't produce more than what they consume and have to be subsided into eternity?

The reason is that trade has to cancel out and equal zero. The Greeks can't change their position unless trading partners change their positions. They have to be subsidized because they don't create assets vital to the country's solvency and the private sector can move those assets out of their banking system.

 

[videogamer]

Either way the EU is a failure for letting Greece in in the first place. It's a failure due to self-interest. It's a failure due to having a single currency where the members states are battling each other within, ultimately destroying each other and leaving everyone in a scenario where it's the survival of the fittest.

And none of the fault lies with Greece for entering the Eurozone with cooked books?

 

[Ted Striker]

And none of the fault lies with Greece for entering the Eurozone with cooked books?

Eurozone has structural defeciencies and weaknesses that would exist even without Greece.

 

[PdotMichael]

What kind of information?

Be more specific.

 

[norinrad]

There's a lot of speculation going on here and everywhere else. Unless we know what is really going on behind closed doors, we just have to wait and see what happens from here. Either way the EU tax payer is f**ked for the next 20 years or so. Good times

 

[Glasshole]

What random nonsense.

There are no excuses for not paying taxes, corruption anything else that destroys the integrity of the state and the future of the next generations.

A very strong argument indeed. You invalidated all my arguments. Give this man the Bundesverdienstkreuz.

You'd never dare ask yourself, what was first: Corruption or the black market? If your people go lengths not to pay taxes, with methods that would be so fucking easy to uncover, you as a government have a fucking problem and you should solve it. And again, because of the corruption, nobody fucking cared.

Governing a state is to a certain degree mass psychology. If your base has serious trust issues, you have to combat them.

By the way, seeing as you speak in absolutes, so there's no excuse for not paying taxes? Let's assume your tax money would be used to kill, say, palestinians, would you be thrilled to pay taxes? I wouldn't.

But of course, the miracle answer from Germans for this crisis is "the greeks are lazy and sleazy and have my money and I hate everything "

 

[Caipirinha]

The European project quickly went from being an experiment in social democracy to a neo-liberal umbrella for the banking sector.

Why should it be any surprise that a currency union has failed when all the requirements of a currency union such as the regional redistribution of wealth through taxation and investment as per the US and UK, were never put in place because such policies are contrary to the neo-liberal agenda and contrary to quarter profits for banks and big business?

The divide here is not between Greece and the rest of Europe, but between us working European men and women and the banking/business sector that has made money off our backs. It's time we stand with the Greeks, it looks like they will be the first to look for an alternative economy, and that's something that we will all require before long.

Like all things neo-liberal the Eurozone is achieving it's final form as a cut-throat wasteland on the brink of collapse, how many times do we have to give this complete and utter failure of an economic model a chance before we try something new?

And none of the fault lies with Greece for entering the Eurozone with cooked books?

Lol do you think Germany et al were oblivious to the fact the books were cooked? Everyone was complicit.

 

[Aureon]

Krugman's new up:
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/06/29/opinion/paul-krugman-greece-over-the-brink.html?_r=0

100% on Greece's side.

And it should be.

Generally, remind that it's not Greece getting bailed out of a default - it's the creditor banks.

 

[A More Normal Bird]

INot really. On a local level maybe (city, county, parish, etc.), but not on a countrywide level. That's what elected politicians are for.

The US as a whole had a massive recession due to the GFC. And while the US weathered the effects, individual states had their own issues.

In 2009 CA had a US $42 BILLION deficit. By 2013 CA had a US $850 million surplus.

In the interim years, the state's debt got so bad it got to the point where it couldn't even pay tax refunds. CA literally sent out IOUs to citizens. Some government workers didn't get paid because the money wasn't there.

CA responded by cutting programs and raising taxes while encouraging businesses to invest. Other core changes were made to legislation, such as making it easier for the government to pass a budget and refusing to pay legislators their salaries for every day the budget was late (yup, if they didn't do their job, they didn't get paid). As a state we went from being compared to Detroit (there were a number of US news stories speculating on if it was possible for a state to declare bankruptcy) to once again having a strong economy.

That's just one example, but to say that the GFC didn't impact the US ignores some of the details.

I said the public makes decisions about economic policies in elections, not that they vote on individual policies. I also never said that the US wasn't impacted by the GFC, just that it did not have a sovereign debt crisis, which it didn't. US states are not monetarily sovereign (for that matter, neither are EMU nations, but their public debt issues were still referred to as sovereign debt crises, so that's the term I used).

 

[Bradach]

There's a lot of speculation going on here and everywhere else. Unless we know what is really going on behind closed doors, we just have to wait and see what happens from here. Either way the EU tax payer is f**ked for the next 20 years or so. Good times

Each country stands to loose what they have contributed to the greek bailout. In Irelands case that was €350m. It's hardly pocket change but I don't think we'll be feeling the effects of it for 20 years.

 

[Glasshole]

And none of the fault lies with Greece for entering the Eurozone with cooked books?

It was the Deutsche Bank itself that cooked them, together with Goldman Sachs.

Siemens has a history of bribing ministers in Greece, there was a huge scandal in Greece as a matter of fact, that was swept under the carpet in Germany. Not one headline. Nothing.

So just to make this clear:

First they use a corrupt system to their advantage, and then complain about it?

*claps*

 

[Caipirinha]

Each country stands to loose what they have contributed to the greek bailout. In Irelands case that was €350m. It's hardly pocket change but I don't think we'll be feeling the effects of it for 20 years.

Ireland's time will come to be in the position of Greece with or without that €350m.

 

[Machspeed007]

Krugman's new up:
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/06/29/opinion/paul-krugman-greece-over-the-brink.html?_r=0

100% on Greece's side.

And it should be.

Generally, remind that it's not Greece getting bailed out of a default - it's the creditor banks.

The economy cannot run without banks either..

 

[maniac-kun]

What are they actualy voting about?

 

[Glasshole]

The European project quickly went from being an experiment in social democracy to a neo-liberal umbrella for the banking sector.

Why should it be any surprise that a currency union has failed when all the requirements of a currency union such as the regional redistribution of wealth through taxation and investment as per the US and UK, were never put in place because such policies are contrary to the neo-liberal agenda and contrary to quarter profits for banks and big business?

The divide here is not between Greece and the rest of Europe, but between us working European men and women and the banking/business sector that has made money off our backs. It's time we stand with the Greeks, it looks like they will be the first to look for an alternative economy, and that's something that we will all require before long.

Like all things neo-liberal the Eurozone is achieving it's final form as a cut-throat wasteland on the brink of collapse, how many times do we have to give this complete and utter failure of an economic model a chance before we try something new?



Lol do you think Germany et al were oblivious to the fact the books were cooked? Everyone was complicit.

Give me your paypal so I can buy you a beer damnit.

Working people all over Europe don't realize they're getting riled up against each other by governments who used their tax money to save their banks, and then complain about not getting the money back from Greece, using polemics and insults.

"Look, mechanic from Germany - the lazy-ass Greek mechanic won't pay us your money back!"

 

[Ted Striker]

Be more specific.

Be more specific about what? Greek elite's interests have been affecting Greece's paths and decisions even before the country was founded almost 200 years ago. Gonna be difficult to sum up all that story in post.

 

[QuicheFontaine]

Each country stands to loose what they have contributed to the greek bailout. In Irelands case that was €350m. It's hardly pocket change but I don't think we'll be feeling the effects of it for 20 years.

How much did the UK contribute? Is there a list somewhere?

 

[Osiris]

Ireland's time will come to be in the position of Greece with or without that €350m.

I doubt it, seems the economy there is recovering, even if a little fragile, growth forecast for 2015 at 3.5% to 4%, and Ireland was reported earlier this year to be forecast as the fastest growing economy in the EU.

 

[Arksy]

How much did the UK contribute? Is there a list somewhere?

An astronomical amount.

 

[Kathian]

Why should it be any surprise that a currency union has failed when all the requirements of a currency union such as the regional redistribution of wealth through taxation and investment as per the US and UK, were never put in place because such policies are contrary to the neo-liberal agenda and contrary to quarter profits for banks and big business?

The problem everyone misses is culture. America prospered as it was a large geographically well placed and well resourced state which most importantly had a common language under-lying its open trade and movement. This is why the main economic risers are not groups of countries but specific large countries.

The currency union never met the requirements because it did not have a common language but also because the social fabrics of the countries are so different, they would never be able to agree regional distribution or common taxation. In fact the very idea is not what many Europeans want from Europe.

The modern UK is a great example of this. The very ideas of the currency union and redistribution are under threat by different social views. Europe does need to rethink the Euro. It was sold by those who yes wanted the 'currency union' to those who wanted integration and economic prosperity, what was not reflected on was that the European Union is a political 'project' it is not the norm of Europe.

However. And its a big fucking however. Most of Europe is fine. Surely theres ups and downs. Ireland was the big fuck up, a well of country smacked more heavily by the crisis thrown into huge debts and would have been better with the Sterling monetary policy; Spain and Italy are muddling through and youth unemployment is pretty poor. Honestly? For the Northern and Central European nations the Euro has been a positive, maybe not a big one economically but socially and diplomatically it has driven integration.

Greece has never been the concern. Its the concern of their affect on how people in other countries perceive their debt and how foreigners perceive their debt.

 

[Bradach]

How much did the UK contribute? Is there a list somewhere?

I got the Irish figure from some analysts on the radio this morning. I couldn't find a breakdown for other countries. If Ireland contributed €350m I'd have to assume the UK figure is in the billions.

 

[Glasshole]

Be more specific about what? Greek elite's interests have been affecting Greece's paths and decisions even before the country was founded almost 200 years ago. Gonna be difficult to sum up all that story in post.

It might break his illusion that life isn't as simple as one of his japanese animes after all.

 

[erale]

How much did the UK contribute? Is there a list somewhere?

I've read an report where the "losses" for each country are listed. Germany would lose 87bn €, Ireland was about 2bn €. UK isn't listed as the report only lists euro countries...

If anyone is interested: https://www.cesifo-group.de/DocDL/Forum-Special-2015-June_1.pdf

Really interesting stuff in there. Like that the public and private consumption relative to the net national income is about 114%. Germany in comparison has a consumption of 88% relative to its net national income.

 

[Osiris]

The problem everyone misses is culture. America prospered as it was a large geographically well placed and well resourced state which most importantly had a common language under-lying its open trade and movement. This is why the main economic risers are not groups of countries but specific large countries.

The currency union never met the requirements because it did not have a common language but also because the social fabrics of the countries are so different, they would never be able to agree regional distribution or common taxation. In fact the very idea is not what many Europeans want from Europe.

The modern UK is a great example of this. The very ideas of the currency union and redistribution are under threat by different social views. Europe does need to rethink the Euro. It was sold by those who yes wanted the 'currency union' to those who wanted integration and economic prosperity, what was not reflected on was that the European Union is a political 'project' it is not the norm of Europe.

However. And its a big fucking however. Most of Europe is fine. Surely theres ups and downs. Ireland was the big fuck up, a well of country smacked more heavily by the crisis thrown into huge debts and would have been better with the Sterling monetary policy; Spain and Italy are muddling through and youth unemployment is pretty poor. Honestly? For the Northern and Central European nations the Euro has been a positive, maybe not a big one economically but socially and diplomatically it has driven integration.

Greece has never been the concern. Its the concern of their affect on how people in other countries perceive their debt and how foreigners perceive their debt.

As the British have said all along, you cannot have monetary union without political union, it doesn't work for all the reasons you outlined.

 

[CyclopsRock]

How much did the UK contribute? Is there a list somewhere?

I could be wrong here - hohoho - but I think that there were three separate bailout sources - one was an EU one, one was a Eurozone one and one was an IMF one. We contributed to the first and third but the Eurozone one was the largest by some way. Again, I could be mad wrong here but I seem to recall that being the case (and it sort of makes sense, given the relative impacts of the groups involved).