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[Vlodril]

Very few watch those state TV channels though, some dont even have them on the channel list! If you tell someone that you watch state TV, they'd be surprised!

The sad thing is that those private channels and radio stations are even popular in the provinces and rural regions, when in fact all they do is report just about Athens. They only report about other cities when there is a murder or a natural disaster. At least ERT is more balanced in that regard

Which is a new thing. And it is why few people watched ert for news at least. Ert was always up until know (when they re-opened it) basically parroting whatever the government line was. Great documentaries but you wouldn't go there to watch the news.

They have been surprisingly balanced the last couple of weeks since i have been watching anyway. Making them the defacto news program to watch because everyone else is going insane with hyperbole and the distortion of facts.

 

[Theonik]

Which is a new thing. And it is why few people watched ert for news at least. Ert was always up until know (when they re-opened it) basically parroting whatever the government line was. Great documentaries but you wouldn't go there to watch the news.

They have been surprisingly balanced the last couple of weeks since i have been watching anyway. Making them the defacto news program to watch because everyone else is going insane with hyperbole and the distortion of facts.

I'd say even before they re-opened it, ERT was more balanced than many private channels, it just was less apparent because the private channels had differing agendas with one another at the time. Of course ERT isn't the BBC. I think it should strive to be though. Maybe eventually.

 

[hydrophilic attack]

I'd say even before they re-opened it, ERT was more balanced than many private channels, it just was less apparent because the private channels had differing agendas with one another at the time. Of course ERT isn't the BBC. I think it should strive to be though. Maybe eventually.

You shouldn't strive to be like BBC. They have bought the austerity narrative wholesale. Google 'mediamacro' to get an idea of their fucked up reporting.

 

[Theonik]

You shouldn't strive to be like BBC. They have bought the austerity narrative wholesale. Google 'mediamacro' to get an idea of their fucked up reporting.

I meant strive to have a mandate that is to ensure the public has a reputable independent source to receive unbiased information, not necessarily the state of the BBC itself.
If you have to pay for state television by virtue of having electricity then it should at least strive to be valuable to the public.

 

[petran79]

Great documentaries but you wouldn't go there to watch the news.

I never watch whole news.
I usually skip politics and sports and prefer to watch daily life news and topics. ERT and regional channels are the best choice for this. ERT3 was very good for Northern Greece before it shut down. No blogs or web reporting can replace the professionalism of this.

For sports all channels, with exception of ERT3 and regional channels, support Olympiacos and Panathinaikos so there is no point in watching anyway. They only report about football too.

For international news, we have free satellite TV (German, UK and French news for a more balanced view). Though I know that channels like BBC are masters and have their own school in subtle propaganda. Greek TV stations are so clumsy and funny in this that they dont even take themselves seriously!

 

[Negotiator]

http://www.scribd.com/doc/270323472/Congressional-Letter-to-Lagarde-070215-1

Also, this seems to be a much bigger problem than Greece's debt: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-06-12/deutsche-bank-next-lehman

 

[Nivash]

http://www.scribd.com/doc/270323472/Congressional-Letter-to-Lagarde-070215-1

Also, this seems to be a much bigger problem than Greece's debt: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-06-12/deutsche-bank-next-lehman

Don't take anything Zero Hedge writes seriously. They're basically economic doomsday theorists with one foot planted firmly in the conspiracy theorist camp. Or as RationalWiki puts it, "It has accurately predicted 200 of the last 2 recessions".

 

[Funky Papa]

Zero Hedge is awful. I remember how back during the Malta crisis they talked about how capital controls were only happening there because citizens were not allowed to own guns.

 

[Theonik]

Don't take anything Zero Hedge writes seriously. They're basically economic doomsday theorists with one foot planted firmly in the conspiracy theorist camp. Or as RationalWiki puts it, "It has accurately predicted 200 of the last 2 recessions".

One day they'll be right though. THEN YOU'LL BE SORRY!

 

[Nivash]

One day they'll be right though. THEN YOU'LL BE SORRY!

I have no doubt they'll accurately predict when the next economic crisis happens. It's hard not to when they claim that every day is the day.

 

[My words exactly!]

MEGA Channel broadcast this image as part of their 'news' coverage last night, to show the suffering of the poor Greek pensioner.

Greek private media has been on a faux news campaign since the referendum was started. There was also newspaper articles using pictures from the 1999 earthquake in Turkey posted earlier in this thread.

exactly, i thought it would be obvious

And a more recent article I came across notes:


I think regardless of the outcome of this referendum, the country (and it's lenders, should it return to the fold) need to address these issues if it's going to recover.

----
As a more general question, even if one accepts that "austerity" is no path to growth and that the various institutions significantly miscalculated the impact of reducing spending as fast as they did, I'm wondering does anyone actually think that Greece didn't need to undergo any fiscal consolidation?

Οfcourse Greece need to start producing and exporting more than just edible and agricultural goods. Thing is, before the PASOK/ND 40 year succesion in power, Greece was much more self sufficient in many goods, had a heavy industry and the public sector was reasonably sized and not bloated as it is now.
Even then, if the state didn't have to pay old loans, there would still be a surplus.
Now shipping (iirc Greece is the second largest globally), rich subsoil, oil deposits should be properly exploited and not just "tourism" and agricultural exports (which are very subdued anyway compared to 20 years ago)


As for the media, i reckon that after all this charade, Syriza must step it up. Private stations owe a fuck lot of money anyway, so have them pay or stfu.
Ιt is insulting that to get unbiased an report for what happens here this week, you have to only read internet sites or blogs or foreign reports.

 

[hydrophilic attack]

I meant strive to have a mandate that is to ensure the public has a reputable independent source to receive unbiased information, not necessarily the state of the BBC itself.
If you have to pay for state television by virtue of having electricity then it should at least strive to be valuable to the public.

I agree that they should strive for this.

 

[Guileless]

The country produces no machines, electronics, or chemicals. Of every $10 of world trade in information technology, Greece accounts for $0.01.

Greece never had the productive structure to be as rich as it was: its income was inflated by massive amounts of borrowed money that was not used to upgrade its productive capacity. According to the Atlas of Economic Complexity, which I co-authored, in 2008 the gap between Greece's income and the knowledge content of its exports was the largest among a sample of 128 countries.

That sums it up well. While the world was changing to an economy dedicated to producing "knowledge", Greece was borrowing money via EU membership that it would never get otherwise and entrenching in a bygone world. Then the financial crisis happened. It was a perfect storm.

 

[shinra-bansho]

They don't need to. However, many folks believe discretionary fiscal consolidation rather than automatic (I'm assuming) is good. Moreover, they probably agree as the 2nd author put it, "Fiscal deficits, like unwanted pregnancies, are the unintended consequence of actions taken by more than one person who had other objectives in mind. And lack of fiscal control is what got Greece into trouble in the first place." Folks believe trash like that. Their ignorance brings suffering upon themselves.

If fiscal deficits are like unwanted pregnancies, then how does the author reconcile the fiscal history of countries around the world over time? I don't think a steady stream of surpluses caused the US to go from $71 million of treasuries outstanding in 1790 to $18.1 trillion in 2015. I could be wrong. Maybe countless governments balance their books and validate the author's macroeconomic truth. However, doing something so often that you don't want to do over a 226 year period sounds difficult to maintain. I don't think anyone forced the US to run deficits, issue bonds, and ensure the integrity of its system by decree. And the US is just one young country that's been fiscally out of control far longer than the author has been alive. And unfortunately for him, record low interest rates or not, countries will doing what they need to do long after he's dead.

http://static5.businessinsider.com/image/50c27262eab8ea803500001f-960/screen%20shot%202012-12-07%20at%205.48.29%20pm.jpg[IMG]

In any event, the Greeks can do whatever they want. Stick with the plan or pull the plug that's on them. I personally wouldn't listen to incompetent folks, but it is what is. Facts don't change minds so I'm assuming they believe sticking with the plan is best thing for them to do.[/QUOTE]
I don't really think the focal thrust of the second author's article is that deficits are some sort of anomaly despite the colourful language? It states as such that the world is dominated by countries that don't have balanced books. Although, I suppose it doesn't readily present that often this is by intent. I also don't really read it as saying fiscal consolidation is good or bad, but nonetheless in this case was necessary - and that the process was actually much more gradual than would have been in the absence of external intervention? (Although again, it can certainly be argued that it was not gradual enough.)

And that in the event that consolidation is necessary the only way to blunt the impact on economic output is through export growth in breadth and volume. Something that very little attention seems to be being paid by all parties.
Although, perhaps I'm not picking up on something in the tone of the article.

 

[Theonik]

That sums it up well. While the world was changing to an economy dedicated to producing "knowledge", Greece was borrowing money via EU membership that it would never get otherwise and entrenching in a bygone world. Then the financial crisis happened. It was a perfect storm.

Mind, that isn't just a Greek problem but a European problem. The IT industry in Germany is terrible. Not virtually non-existent as it is in Greece, but it simply is not competitive, underfunded with a very poor working culture in general having all but drowned innovation.

Germany is very much relying on their heavy industry and their trade surpluses lasting for all eternity which I'm not sure is very sustainable in the long term. China is going to hurt them a ton in the next decade, especially if they can't devalue the Euro.

 

[le-seb]

http://www.scribd.com/doc/270323472/Congressional-Letter-to-Lagarde-070215-1

Hmm, this last paragraph sounds like blackmail.

 

[My words exactly!]

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/07/03/b...ek-debt-negotiations-quickly-soured.html?_r=1

Why the deal failed at the last minute and capital controls were Schaeuble's proposal.

 

[Yamauchi]

For some strange reason, i keep thinking this has all been a bad long dream and that am going to wake up tomorrow with Greece still in the EU, their people, economy and everyone else all doing well.

Well, it's not a bad dream. With debt at 180% of GDP and prospects of long-term growth slim, Greeks will live under a crushing debt load for decades to come.

 

[maniac-kun]

Does no mean Greece exits the Euro?

 

[oti]

Does someone have a link that actualy describes what the yes or no vote is about? ._.

There's not much there to describe really.

Yes - Take the offer that isn't on the table anymore.
No - I don't know, don't take the offer that isn't even on the table anymore I guess. Suck it Eurozone.

Does no mean Greece exits the Euro?

Depends on who you ask.

 

[le-seb]

Does someone have a link that actualy describes what the yes or no vote is about? ._.

Basically: "Should we accept the offer the European Commission, the European Central Bank and the International Monetary Fund made during the 25th of June Eurogroup meeting?"

 

[Xando]

Does no mean Greece exits the Euro?

Unless they find a few billion euros hidden somewhere or ECB raises ELA it's pretty likely.

 

[maniac-kun]

I think exiting the euro is the lesser evil. And the Greece government is back in controle of everything again.

 

[petran79]

Mind, that isn't just a Greek problem but a European problem. The IT industry in Germany is terrible. Not virtually non-existent as it is in Greece, but it simply is not competitive, underfunded with a very poor working culture in general having all but drowned innovation.

Germany is very much relying on their heavy industry and their trade surpluses lasting for all eternity which I'm not sure is very sustainable in the long term. China is going to hurt them a ton in the next decade, especially if they can't devalue the Euro.

I remember few years ago there was a talk that Greece did miss an opportunity to become "Israel of the Balkans" regarding computer software and technology

 

[Theonik]

Oh wow. Since according to law it is illegal to run political messaging as of midnight last night, Skai to avoid reciprocations has decided to remove their logo from their broadcast and run it anyway. I really hope they end up digging their own grave for this bullshit.

(not my picture)

I remember few years ago there was a talk that Greece did miss an opportunity to become "Israel of the Balkans" regarding computer software and technology

Greece missed a lot of opportunities to become an 'x of the Balkans'. Not that it had much chance given the circumstances. Israel especially is a poor comparison.

 

[Coriolanus]

I know how most of you would vote, but what's Gaf thinking the result will be tomorrow?

 

[ElTorro]

I know how most of you would vote, but what's Gaf thinking the result will be tomorrow?

I think that the 'No' crowd is more enthusiastic and will be therefore able to mobilize more support when it comes to the actual vote. The result will still likely be a close one, and that won't help Tsipras. It's harder to refer to the support of your people when your position only wins by 1-3%, especially after your landslide victory in the last elections.

 

[True Savior]

I know how most of you would vote, but what's Gaf thinking the result will be tomorrow?

A big fat NO win. Hopefully.

 

[My words exactly!]

Tomorrow's newspapers' frontpages:
http://www.zougla.gr/media/article/ta-protoselida-ton-kiriakatikon-efimeridon-1202263

Notice a trend here too? Never in my 30 years of age have i seen such one sided coverage and bias.

What is telling though is this: if even those media present the result to be neck and neck, i really think that even themselves know what's going down...

 

[thepotatoman]

I know how most of you would vote, but what's Gaf thinking the result will be tomorrow?

It'll be yes. People always side on the side of fear in the end.

 

[chadskin]

I think that the 'No' crowd is more enthusiastic and will be therefore able to mobilize more support when it comes to the actual vote. The result will still likely be a close one, and that won't help Tsipras. It's harder to refer to the support of your people when your position only wins by 1-3%, especially after your landslide victory in the last elections.

Someone here summed it up as a majority of the youth will likely vote "No" and a majority of the elderly will likely vote "Yes". Given that there's less mobilization potential for the elderly because they're less integrated into society, mobilization isn't necessarily a good indicator for the outcome of a referendum. When there's no prior data available like for national elections, then the elderly are always a bit of a wild card.

Judging solely by the January 2015 election result and the party's recommendation for the referendum - i.e. Syriza, ANEL and XA "No"; ND, Potami, PASOK, KIDISO "Yes" - it'd be 47.37% for "No" and 41% for "Yes" if we assume everyone votes exactly like the party they voted for in January recommends. 11.64% (includes KKE and other smaller parties) are therefore the unknown quantity. As KKE recommends its voters to spoil their ballots, I assume a majority of them will do just that or at least vote "No" which should be enough to put the "No" vote into 50%+ territory.

So, it ultimately depends whether the "Yes" campaign was/is successful enough in swaying people's opinion in spite of the party's recommendation.

Personally, I expect "No" to win, I want "Yes" to win but I believe it won't make a difference, other than decide who the institutions will negotiate with.

 

[East Lake]

I'm going with yes winning even though I'd like to see no. Think too much pressure has come to bear on Tsipras between the media and the ECB basically stoking a bank run. Eurozone wants a pliant government and they might get it. Long-term it'll backfire though. They've essentially broken the economy.

 

[TheLaughingStock]

I don't really think the focal thrust of the second author's article is that deficits are some sort of anomaly despite the colourful language? It states as such that the world is dominated by countries that don't have balanced books. Although, I suppose it doesn't readily present that often this is by intent. I also don't really read it as saying fiscal consolidation is good or bad, but nonetheless in this case was necessary - and that the process was actually much more gradual than would have been in the absence of external intervention? (Although again, it can certainly be argued that it was not gradual enough.)

And that in the event that consolidation is necessary the only way to blunt the impact on economic output is through export growth in breadth and volume. Something that very little attention seems to be being paid by all parties.
Although, perhaps I'm not picking up on something in the tone of the article.

Unless you have an inflation problem, I don't the necessity of raising taxes and cutting spending yourself. According to the IMF they somehow had a positive output gap of 10% in 2007 which doesn't make sense.

The fiscal consolidation as described by the OECD was gradual because that policy put the economy into recession for over 60 months. If they had done nothing and just obstructed like the Republicans in America, then tax revenue would have automatically rose and non-discretionary spending would've have fallen. The fact that automatic stabilizers would've done a better job at reducing gov't deficits and the accumulation of debt is the entire point. All they had to do was take a seat and relax...instead they were doing too much and failed spectacularly.

 

[Ether_Snake]

I'm going with No, and then a lot of bitching about the elections not being fair and so on.

Doesn't matter as much as people make it out to be anyway, Greece can't be kicked out of the EU without doing more damage to the EU in the long run, so the ball is in the Troika's court either way, even if the Yes won and a new government took place, none of this matters, austerity's seeds have been planted and only one kind of tree can grow out of it.

 

[EloKa]

My thread a few months ago where I said Germany would probably leave the EZ before Greece did doesn't sound so crazy anymore. Just a bit more populism needed. The US pushing to leak the IMF document will have helped a little too, especially if the No wins tomorrow. Germany over time will find itself increasingly isolated as long as there is a desire to positively reform the EZ, and will see a continuous rise in national anti-everyone rethoric. The financial views held by many in Germany is on an evangelical level.

I heavly doubt that Germany will become isolated on any level due to this conflict.
This survey was already from 2013 but I doubt that the sides did change a lot.

or in other words:

 

[spindoctor]

Can someone explain to me why the Greek government believes a No vote gives it a better bargaining position?

Why is there this assumption that the EU creditors will see that the Greek population rejected their terms and then decide to change their mind on it? What's stopping them from just holding firm on their proposal?

 

[LJ11]

I think this is an overlooked point of discussion (this post in itself sort of flew under the radar). Prior to the crisis, the current account balance was typically in double digit deficit.

The current account balance has actually entered surplus, but - and this is a big but - it's done so essentially due to a contraction of imports. Bruegel did an analysis of this disparity in adjustment compared to other indebted countries that underwent "internal devaluation" early in the year:
http://www.bruegel.org/nc/blog/detail/article/1530-why-grexit-would-not-help-greece/
And a more recent article I came across notes:


I think regardless of the outcome of this referendum, the country (and it's lenders, should it return to the fold) need to address these issues if it's going to recover.

----
As a more general question, even if one accepts that "austerity" is no path to growth and that the various institutions significantly miscalculated the impact of reducing spending as fast as they did, I'm wondering does anyone actually think that Greece didn't need to undergo any fiscal consolidation?

It's an inherent problem with the Euro, there will be creditor nations running big current account surpluses and debtor nations with current account deficits that in turn finance the deficit by borrowing from creditor nations. Only way to bring down effective exchange rate is by reducing internal costs, ie slash wages or by becoming much more productive which is hard to do during a recession.

Every sovereign debt problem has roots in balance of trade. Hard to solve it when you have a monetary union, but no fiscal union. Most people don't realize it, hard to wrap your head around the idea that one country in the union can have a cheaper currency than another member even if they all use the same currency. Not everyone has the same cost structure.

 

[Chittagong]

I am going with No. The people are tired with this whole charade, and whatever shitty outcomes Grexit would bring would always be opposed by very grim austerity measures.

Our bank's currency trading team had a vote two days ago, they sided with No, with a very tight 5-4 vote.

 

[petran79]

A "NO" with 51 % will be presented as defeat. It is defeat indeed. Needs results close to 80 % to send a convincing message.

But a "YES" will be presented as a victory, even with 51 %

 

[mnz]

Can someone explain to me why the Greek government believes a No vote gives it a better bargaining position?

Why is there this assumption that the EU creditors will see that the Greek population rejected their terms and then decide to change their mind on it? What's stopping them from just holding firm on their proposal?

Maybe Tsipras understands his negotiating position better than we do, because I don't get this either. He's probably convinced that the Eurogroup will do everything to not let Greece leave the Euro and a "No" means he's here to stay and the one they have to compromise with.

 

[LJ11]

It doesn't matter how the vote goes, the ECB has the only vote that matters. If two thirds vote to remove ELA or they choose to increase haircuts on ELA collateral, Bank of Greece can no longer provide assistance to banks, they are essentially bust, banks will not open and depositors get bailed in. Played out this way in Cyprus. Finger pointing would begin, not that it would matter, the ones getting fucked are average citizens who didn't know any better and left their money in Greek banks.

ECB yanked collateral waiver in February, 3 weeks before it was going to end anyway. Hard to get a gauge on how the ECB behaves, they've been erratic, and some would say reckless, throughout the crisis and not just in Greece. Playbook is written as they go along, it's tough to get a beat on what they may do, sometimes it seems as they are just as politically motivated as any other group.

 

[le-seb]

Here's an interesting opinion column (in French) from former European Commission president Jacques Delors, former World Trade Organization director-general Pascal Lamy and former European Commissioner (and Portugal defence minister) Antonio Vitorino.

In a nutshell, they say that the Greek problem will remain a European one, whatever the referendum results are tomorrow, and to not only assess the economic and financial consequences Greece leaving the Euro zone would lead to, looking at it through the IMF looking glass, but to also to take into account the geopolitical consequences.

They're asking Greece to clearly break up with the system they've ran these last 40 years, to resist the temptation to impute most of Athens' problems to external causes, and for the government to stop considering that they're the only ones legitimately acting in the name of their people, trying to impose their views on their European counterparts. That's, according to them, the only conditions that would bring them back some credibility in the eye of their European partners, who would then stop thinking that they're pouring money in a bottomless well (with nice reference to the Danaïdes here.)

They are then asking the EU to take its whole part in this process, by offering an overall plan to help Greece recovering. First, by offering some reasonable financial help that will allow Greece to recover its solvency in the short term. Then, by mobilizing the EU instruments to reanimate the Hellenic economy, and thus bringing back economic growth, that will by itself lighten the debt/GDP ratio of the country. And finally by bringing the question of [reducing] the weight of the Greek debt, and the ones of the other countries being currently covered by the EFSF program, on a European framework level as soon as the necessary reform engagements are made.
Only such a global plan would in their opinion bring the perspectives of hope and mobilisation required for the Greek people and its authorities to properly engage in the efforts of reconstruction their country needs, and that would benefit UE.

[Hope my translation / take on the matter makes sense.]

No surprise Jacques Delors and his friends are calling for cooperation and solidarity here.
I hope their call will be heard by both sides.

 

[dapperbandit]

If there's a No vote, will there be another referendum on leaving the EU or will it be a really done deal by that point?

 

[Giant Panda]

Even if Greece votes No and exits the Euro, they are going to need to implement many of the market oriented reforms anyway if they don't want to be in the same situation a few decades from now. Of course Syrzia doesn't seem like a credible government to do that.

 

[Nivash]

I heavly doubt that Germany will become isolated on any level due to this conflict.
This survey was already from 2013 but I doubt that the sides did change a lot.

My favourite takeaway from that poll is still that Italians consider themselves the least trustworthy though.

 

[oti]

I heavly doubt that Germany will become isolated on any level due to this conflict.
This survey was already from 2013 but I doubt that the sides did change a lot.

or in other words:

I'd call Greek public servants lazy and teachers (it's ridiculous how broken the education in Greece is, you HAVE to take private lessons to learn English for example, there's no way around that).
But I've seen plenty of equally lazy German public servants.

 

[hydrophilic attack]

I know how most of you would vote, but what's Gaf thinking the result will be tomorrow?

Most people can probably tell from my posts that I would have voted no, but unfortunately I think the result will be a small majority for yes. I guess we'll have to hope for better mobilization from young no voters than from old yes voters.

 

[My words exactly!]

People have gathered to protest outside MEGA tv headquarters for its' hideous agitprop over the last week:

http://www.koutipandoras.gr/article...a-ti-hydaia-tileoptiki-propaganda-deite-fotos

Someone here summed it up as a majority of the youth will likely vote "No" and a majority of the elderly will likely vote "Yes". Given that there's less mobilization potential for the elderly because they're less integrated into society, mobilization isn't necessarily a good indicator for the outcome of a referendum. When there's no prior data available like for national elections, then the elderly are always a bit of a wild card.

I summed that up cause of the poll results. However i disagree on one thing you said. Let me explain: ever since the night of Saturday June 27th, pensioners were among the first to queue outside ATMs and banks. Their majority only listens to their pockets and you can be sure they'll flock to vote. Also, most pensioners live close to where they vote.

On the other side, Greek youth is pro no, but this is on social media mainly. It remains to be seen whether they'll leave their summer bath or work/school for a while. Many are still amidst exams period in universities and it is not certain that they'll travel to their homes to vote. We'll see.

 

[Yamauchi]

A "NO" with 51 % will be presented as defeat. It is defeat indeed. Needs results close to 80 % to send a convincing message.

But a "YES" will be presented as a victory, even with 51 %

I would disagree. Syriza with 36% of the vote had no mandate to push forward with negotiations that could potentially see Greece exit the EZ. With 51% behind them, they will.

 

[Blablurn]

talked to my parents today. they have greek background but live in germany since age 13. they spend their retirement time in greece every year. several months. but if things are going apeshit they will come back early this year.

scary that this country is almost completely fucked.