Support NeoGAF

[Ether_Snake]

It's still crazy and thinking Germany is isolated is, too.

It's only a little now, but each time the EU will face this kind of situation Germany's position will remain a stumbling block to fixing the issue. So either the EZ will continue to be undermined moreso each time, or reforms take place, but the German population would be against them. There isn't two options for the future of the single currency, countries like Italy, Greece, Spain, Portugal, are either all in or all out.

 

[norinrad]

About Germany leaving the euro.
If that happens then the Greek plan would have succeeded. It would have been that the Prime minister of Greece and his finance minister's plan all along was to dismantle the Euro. Hahaha

 

[HarryKS]

Oil baby, oil. Olive oil though.

 

[ElTorro]

The only political party (who registers in the polls and) who is actively campaigning against a Eurozone membership of Germany and was founded for that single purpose, the "AfD", is currently in the process of tearing itself apart. Every other party is strongly pro Euro.

 

[petran79]

Have a link for that? Google news isn't being cooperative at all no matter what combination of Kerkyra(/Corfu?), Germans, flag and fortress I input.

Because shit like that boils my blood. Let me at those little shits.

Fucking hell.

I apologize for my fellow Germans. They would have deserved any "accidental" spankings they could have received - but did not. Good work, Greeks.

In Greek

http://news247.gr/eidiseis/koinonia...-mas-apo-to-frourio-sthn-kerkyra.3556726.html

It happened Monday night.

A group of Hochschule students from Bayern went to Kerkyra to celebrate their school graduation
2 of them went and took down the flag from the old Fortress, messed it into a tangle and hid it in the yard of their hotel. In the hotel they were also photographed with their friends

Fortress belonged to the historic 10th Regiment, that took part in the Balkan Wars 100 years ago. After the guards noticed the flag's absence they notified the police. Police arrived at the site. A few students had remained at the monument site, ready to leave to the hotel. Police asked them who did this. They said it was their former classmates, showing the police pictures from their mobile phones so they could recognize them. In less than an hour they found them in their hotel room. They pointed to them where they had buried the flag in the hotel yard.
When asked why they did this, they said they thought no one would take notice of them or even locate and arrest them. They apologized. Νext day they were brought and judged in flagrant. 8 months and they were released

 

[petran79]

 

[ClosingADoor]

It's only a little now, but each time the EU will face this kind of situation Germany's position will remain a stumbling block to fixing the issue. So either the EZ will continue to be undermined moreso each time, or reforms take place, but the German population would be against them. There isn't two options for the future of the single currency, countries like Italy, Greece, Spain, Portugal, are either all in or all out.

You can make a good case for Italy, Spain and maybe Portugal leaving. But you're crazy if you think Holland, Belgium, Germany, Finland, the newly joined Baltics and Austria will leave.

 

[Wafflecakes]

I loled irl.

 

[Ether_Snake]

You can make a good case for Italy, Spain and maybe Portugal leaving. But you're crazy if you think Holland, Belgium, Germany, Finland, the newly joined Baltics and Austria will leave.

A union makes sense for the former, not the later. The weak gain by uniting, the strong economies have little to gain by doing so and will find less support locally if they cannot benefit from the weaker members being part of the union.

So either the later implement reform in favor of the former remaining in the union, or they will eventually be forced out from within. The weaker economies on the other hand have little to gain by not uniting, and much to lose by not doing so.

So you are right, they won't leave, they'll have to make the kind of reforms needed to keep the south in the union.

Let's see how that flies with their electorate.

 

[Tarsul]

It's only a little now, but each time the EU will face this kind of situation Germany's position will remain a stumbling block to fixing the issue. So either the EZ will continue to be undermined moreso each time, or reforms take place, but the German population would be against them. There isn't two options for the future of the single currency, countries like Italy, Greece, Spain, Portugal, are either all in or all out.

yeah but Germany is the last country to leave the Euro because it benefits them the most. And the German politicians know this. The public is "only" against lending any more money to bankrupt states, but the political parties can do more or less what they want because, except the party AfD, there is no alternative for a moderate pro-Euro course. And the AfD won't get (much) over 10% of the votes until the German economy tanks. For as long as German economy is well and bright, the people won't vote against the common parties. Which support the Euro till the end.

 

[kiguel182]

Oh yeaaaa, I forgot about them winning, fuck them let them burn, they stole the cup from us

Sometimes I feel sorry for Greece and what is happening.

Then I remember that final and somehow I think it's karma. I'm still not over it.

Spoiler

I'm joking obviously. About being karma. Not about not being over it, that is true.

 

[hydrophilic attack]

Firstly, I never said Greece was in recovery.

I never said you did. But I knew someone else would (and I was right, see post #1950)

I said it had hit its trough and had stabilized.

and my argument was that this in itself is pretty meaningless.

Secondly, I couldn't find a chart with an accurate 2014 number. In 2014, Greece recorded a deficit of 3.5% compared to GDP, a big improvement over 2013.

Cool, thanks.

I'm curious to see how things would have turned out had the election gone differently, but alas.....

In that case, Greece would have signed up to a shitty agreement with more austerity but without debt reduction, and the rift within the Troika, with IMF arguing for debt reduction, would not be public.

 

[Ether_Snake]

yeah but Germany is the last country to leave the Euro because it benefits them the most. And the German politicians know this. The public is "only" against lending any more money to bankrupt states, but the political parties can do more or less what they want because, except the party AfD, there is no alternative for a moderate pro-Euro course. And the AfD won't get (much) over 10% of the votes until the German economy tanks. For as long as German economy is well and bright, the people won't vote against the common parties. Which support the Euro till the end.

It only benefits them with the south in the union. Which is why I say the south is the last to leave, unless things become so exploitive that having their own currency becomes the most viable solution.

 

[Kathian]

It only benefits them with the south in the union. Which is why I say the south is the last to leave, unless things become so exploitive that having their own currency becomes the most viable solution.

Eh? Germany is not negatively affected with the northern counties. Its still a benefit to them. What are you talking about?

 

[ClosingADoor]

A union makes sense for the former, not the later. The weak gain by uniting, the strong economies have little to gain by doing so and will find less support locally if they cannot benefit from the weaker members being part of the union.

So either the later implement reform in favor of the former remaining in the union, or they will eventually be forced out from within. The weaker economies on the other hand have little to gain by not uniting, and much to lose by not doing so.

So you are right, they won't leave, they'll have to make the kind of reforms needed to keep the south in the union.

Let's see how that flies with their electorate.

It only benefits them with the south in the union. Which is why I say the south is the last to leave, unless things become so exploitive that having their own currency becomes the most viable solution.

I don't really get why the Southern countries would leave last if they have the short end of the stick.

And don't forget about Eastern Europe. I don't know how the sentiment there is towards the Euro, but there are 'weaker' countries there that can still join to prevent Germany and such from getting a currency that is too strong. We've seen the Baltics and Slovakia join over the past years. Czech Republic, Hungary, Romania, Poland could all possibly join, but the current crises is not really doing any favors of convincing them of course.

But even if all of Southern Europe leaves and the whole thing crashes down, I think at least a few Northern countries will stick around that have very large trading ties (Austria, Germany, Netherlands make sense here).

Eh? Germany is not negatively affected with the northern counties. Its still a benefit to them. What are you talking about?

I think he means that Southern Europe is keeping the currency value down a bit. That is good for German exports. If they all leave, you only have stronger economies in it, so the currency value will rise and it will be bad for exports. So it makes less sense to keep a currency union for that.

But since Germany is still the largest and strongest of the bunch, the easier trade and such would still be good for them and I don't see a separate Deutschmark being any better for them then a currency union with a few neighbors.

 

[Theonik]

In that case, Greece would have signed up to a shitty agreement with more austerity but without debt reduction, and the rift within the Troika, with IMF arguing for debt reduction, would not be public.

I feel that's the thing that's fucked negotiations. I think both sides would have accepted a 'successful' completion of the program with more austerity followed by a third bailout, but making it public was very embarrassing for the Troika and now they are doing this out of spite (or rather political necessity) they will not deal with people who air their laundry.

 

[Coriolanus]

In today's news:

First and foremost, that concern over the inconstitutionality of the referendum? Court told the plaintiffs to get fucked. Won't prevent the local opposition from harping about it, obv, but nice enuff. Via FT, for a change.

Schauble tells Greeks and the FMI study to get fucked. Not literally, obv. Via The Local.de:

Any new bailout would have to be negotiated "on a completely new basis and under toughened economic preconditions," Schäuble told Bild.

Also polling data has both sides virtually tied, and some conspiracy-like reports that the US had a hand in forcing the FMI to release its report.

 

[My words exactly!]

In today's news:

First and foremost, that concern over the inconstitutionality of the referendum? Court told the plaintiffs to get fucked. Won't prevent the local opposition from harping about it, obv, but nice enuff. Via FT, for a change.

Schauble tells Greeks and the FMI study to get fucked. Not literally, obv. Via The Local.de:


Also polling data has both sides virtually tied, and some conspiracy-like reports that the US had a hand in forcing the FMI to release its report.

Shauble has a plan and sticks with it. We'll see if he gets his way.

Also indeed i also read that US pushed for the IMF report to go public and the EU members wanting it to stay out of sight cause it proved that continued austerity would not yield good results in the future. The reason for the US support could be anyone's guess, tinfoil hat conspiracists say is due to the recent Tsipras trip to Moscow, it was rumored that Russia wants a navy base in the island of Syros and will fund 30bln to Greece.
Crazy talk imho. This could spark a conflict in the Aegean Sea.

Lastly, polls show that the younger greeks are pro-No while older pro-YES.

Interesting stats here http://www.defencenet.gr/defence/item/m%CE%AC%CF%87%CE%B7-%CF%83%CF%84%CE%AE%CE%B8%CE%BF%CF%82-%CE%BC%CE%B1-%CF%83%CF%84%CE%AE%CE%B8%CE%BF%CF%82-%CF%84%CE%BF%CF%85-%CE%BD%CE%B1%CE%B9-%CE%BA%CE%B1%CE%B9-%CF%84%CE%BF%CF%85-%CE%BF%CF%87%CE%B9-%CE%BF-%CF%81%CF%8C%CE%BB%CE%BF%CF%82-%CF%84%CE%B7%CF%82-%CE%BA%CF%81%CF%85%CF%86%CE%AE%CF%82-%CF%88%CE%AE%CF%86%CE%BF%CF%85-%CF%84%CE%BF%CF%85-%CE%BB%CE%B1%CF%8A%CE%BA%CE%BF%CF%8D-%CF%83%CF%85%CE%BD%CE%B4%CE%AD%CF%83%CE%BC%CE%BF%CF%85-%CE%BA%CE%B1%CE%B9-%CF%84%CE%B7%CF%82

People's preference to yes or no, by party voted on last February's elections

 

[mnz]

Almost 30% of Syriza voters are going to vote "Yes"? That's pretty crazy.

 

[LJ11]

Almost 30% of Syriza voters are going to vote "Yes"? That's pretty crazy.

Fear knows no party.

 

[CTLance]

In tenuously nice news, it's a bit refreshing to see Monitor (a small-to-medium-sized German TV magazine on government owned TV stations) rip into the way the debt issue has been handled.

Obviously, it's in German, so you'll have to believe me when I say they are less than amused and rip many politicians a new one. They come to the conclusion that (shocking!) Greece was subjected to politically motivated bullying, particularly from the German government.

Again, nothing new, and Monitor is known to be a bit more aggressive, but hey, you take what you can get. It's not every day that a publicly funded TV show openly bites the hand that feeds it.

So, nothing seriously impactful, but hey, this thread is so depressing, I need some of the good stuff once in a while.

 

[Reuenthal]

People's preference to yes or no, by party voted on last February's elections

The last two polls in your post seem to be asking about whether the true question of the referendum is yes or no to the euro currency.


These are the polls about yes or no per party:

 

[mnz]

In tenuously nice news, it's a bit refreshing to see Monitor (a small-to-medium-sized German TV magazine on government owned TV stations) rip into the way the debt issue has been handled.

Obviously, it's in German, so you'll have to believe me when I say they are less than amused and rip many politicians a new one. They come to the conclusion that (shocking!) Greece was subjected to politically motivated bullying, particularly from the German government.

Again, nothing new, and Monitor is known to be a bit more aggressive, but hey, you take what you can get. It's not every day that a publicly funded TV show openly bites the hand that feeds it.

So, nothing seriously impactful, but hey, this thread is so depressing, I need some of the good stuff once in a while.

There have been many pieces against Troika/austerity politics lately, also pieces about the one-sided coverage itself. Some of them should really get a translation, just to show how it's not only Greece-bashing in Germany right now.
Someone linked this earlier for example: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gwuD0MqU3qk
This was popular a few months ago: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_QimxVuicZU
Also, Gysi's talk in the Greece debate should get subtitles, it got a lot of attention: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q1dbXpTCygw

 

[Theonik]

There was this supposed leak of a Nea Dimokratia campaign strategy brief that's been circulating. Not sure how real it is but these polls seem aligned with it.

 

[My words exactly!]

The last two polls in your post seem to be asking about whether the true question of the referendum is yes or no to the euro currency.


These are the polls about yes or no per party:

Ah, sorry about that. I'm posting from my mobile.
More stats per age, party preference and political view here:
http://www.koutipandoras.gr/article/144973/metron-analysis-mprosta-ohi


Also take the following with a grain of salt:
http://www.altsantiri.gr/politika/dierrefse-to-simioma-stratigikis-tis-nd-gia-na-petichoun-to-ne-apodiknii-oti-stinoun-dimoskopisis/

here's an allegedly leaked ND stategy plan intended to direct its members on what to say on media and how to frame Syriza for the banks closing. Refer to the referrendum as if the question asked is yes or no to euro and yes or no to Greece's staying in the eurozone. Also, specifically target women voters, pensioners, farmers and former Pasok voters that went to Syriza (that's your 30% that was talked above). Cook the polls to show that yes acceptancy is rising ("has a momentum" is the exact phrase) and bring it to 5-10% above no on the final polls. Lastly, use media personnas or showbiz citizens that are pro YES and let them get the spotlight instead of pro YES politicians (even they themselves know they are not trusted anymore and enrage the average greek citizen).

=EDIT=
A Deutche Welle reporter tweeted that the crowd in the pro NO demonstration tonight was larger than the pro YES that took place at the same time in Kallimarmaron Stadium

http://www.koutipandoras.gr/article...galyteri-i-diadilosi-toy-ohi-apo-toy-nai-foto

 

[Theonik]

Tsipras Speech from No rally tonight:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=youtu.be&v=xXbtSENtfwM&app=desktop

 

[My words exactly!]

Something to lighten up the mood:

Α group of leftists trolled a pro-YES demonstration in Thessaloniki. They posed as yupiees and blended into the crowd. Then they gave people a plakat that read "Mένουμε Σκλάβοι" which means "We stay enlaved" instead of "Μένουμε Ευρώπη"which is the pro-YES slogan and means "We stay in Europe". It took a good 20 minutes for the pro YES crowd to realize what they were proudly displaying on their protest was not what they thought it was. Alas, the da.age had been done. Social media had a field day with that one.

http://www.topontiki.gr/article/135...yropi-ti-pano-toys-evalan-na-kratisoyn-photos

 

[Tugatrix]

Ah, sorry about that. I'm posting from my mobile.
More stats per age, party preference and political view here:
http://www.koutipandoras.gr/article/144973/metron-analysis-mprosta-ohi


Also take the following with a grain of salt:
http://www.altsantiri.gr/politika/dierrefse-to-simioma-stratigikis-tis-nd-gia-na-petichoun-to-ne-apodiknii-oti-stinoun-dimoskopisis/

here's an allegedly leaked ND stategy plan intended to direct its members on what to say on media and how to frame Syriza for the banks closing. Refer to the referrendum as if the question asked is yes or no to euro and yes or no to Greece's staying in the eurozone. Also, specifically target women voters, pensioners, farmers and former Pasok voters that went to Syriza (that's your 30% that was talked above). Cook the polls to show that yes acceptancy is rising ("has a momentum" is the exact phrase) and bring it to 5-10% above no on the final polls. Lastly, use media personnas or showbiz citizens that are pro YES and let them get the spotlight instead of pro YES politicians (even they themselves know they are not trusted anymore and enrage the average greek citizen).

=EDIT=
A Deutche Welle reporter tweeted that the crowd in the pro NO demonstration tonight was larger than the pro YES that took place at the same time in Kallimarmaron Stadium

http://www.koutipandoras.gr/article...galyteri-i-diadilosi-toy-ohi-apo-toy-nai-foto

shameful all dirty tricks on the table

 

[Theonik]

shameful all dirty tricks on the table

I think I know why I feel so nostalgic about this. It feels like a B-tier 90s movie.
You know, the ones where some evil developer is trying to demolish some shit and the community gets together to get him to fuck off.

 

[My words exactly!]

...yeah and with the greek media as an underling dastardly trying to manipulate and dispair the people (Wormtongue guy from LOTR would be a perfect match). Man, i hope someone does a collection of all the FUD that went around the past few days.

Another priceless MEGA tv moment

You know, i didn't vote for Syriza on the last elections (didn't trust them, too vague) but at least i must hand it to them that they managed to partially subvert the "lazy greeks" stereotype that the corrupted and spineless yes men from former greek governments enforced. I am amazed seeing foreign people protest in Paris, Brussels, Rome etc. for the pro-NO vote to the referendum and not casually dismiss the greek financial crisis.

 

[Coriolanus]

What *is* happening in those pics, mate?

 

[Theonik]

What *is* happening in those pics, mate?

She is protecting the PIN number from prying eyes.

 

[Syriel]

She is protecting the PIN number from prying eyes.

Except that pic is dated 2012.

Have Greeks always been that paranoid about cash?

Credit/Debit pretty much means no worries about cash getting stolen.

 

[Theonik]

Except that pic is dated 2012.

Have Greeks always been that paranoid about cash?

Credit/Debit pretty much means no worries about cash getting stolen.

Oh, the picture was taken in 2012 in South Africa. This is why it is hilarious.

 

[Yamauchi]

Well, it'll be an interesting result. Most polls seem to show it being neck-and-neck, but I would imagine most 'don't know' voters will lean toward Yes.

 

[Syriel]

Oh, the picture was taken in 2012 in South Africa. This is why it is hilarious.

Seriously? That's just WTF levels of fun then as it has nothing to do with Greece at all.

(Sorry, taking some best guesses at the images posted since I don't read Greek).

That old woman has that shit on lockdown though. The look on her face is all "Don't even think about messing with me." She's ready to go Super Saiyan on someone shady.

 

[slit]

http://www.buzzfeed.com/jimwaterson/apple-itunes-and-appstore-no-longer-work-in-greece-due-to-de#.riDN3M6WbG

Can Greek Gaf confirm this?

Are you guys being completely shut out from iTunes, Paypal, Play Store, payed news sites, cloud services, etc. because of the ban on taking money out of the country? Or is this bullshit?

 

[Syriel]

http://www.buzzfeed.com/jimwaterson/apple-itunes-and-appstore-no-longer-work-in-greece-due-to-de#.riDN3M6WbG

Can Greek Gaf confirm this?

Are you guys being completely shut out from iTunes, Paypal, Play Store, payed news sites, cloud services, etc. because of the ban on taking money out of the country? Or is this bullshit?

Seems legit.

http://www.sfgate.com/news/us/article/Honeymoon-is-over-for-Greek-couple-who-went-6363814.php

NEW YORK (AP) — Newlyweds Valasia Limnioti and Konstantinos Patronis' long-planned "dream trip" to the U.S. ended in New York City, where their three-week honeymoon quickly turned into a nightmare: Their Greek-issued credit and debit cards were suddenly declined and they were left penniless.

"We were hungry, and I cried for two days," Limnioti said. "I felt homeless in New York."

The couple skipped a few meals before spending their last dollars on dinner at McDonald's. Strangers from two Greek Orthodox churches in the city's Queens borough came to the rescue, giving them survival cash until their flight home to Greece on Friday.

Their midtown Manhattan hotel asked them to pay a $45 surcharge. That's when their cards bounced. They paid with their dwindling funds.

Within days, the couple ran out of cash and "we couldn't withdraw any money — zero," Limnioti said.

On Tuesday, in despair, they reached out to the New York-based Greek Orthodox Archdiocese of America, which contacted the churches in Queens' Astoria neighborhood.

The honeymooners were offered about $350 from the St. Demetrios Greek Orthodox church and another nearby one, St. Irene Chrysovalantou.

If Greek credit cards can't be used outside the country, then all of the services mentioned in slit's post would fail.

 

[shinra-bansho]

It's hard to not pile on debt, public or private, when trade imbalances persist. This is a balance of payments issue. Greeks piled on public debt, while other members piled on the private side. As long as trade imbalances are skewed, so will the debt.

I think this is an overlooked point of discussion (this post in itself sort of flew under the radar). Prior to the crisis, the current account balance was typically in double digit deficit.

The current account balance has actually entered surplus, but - and this is a big but - it's done so essentially due to a contraction of imports. Bruegel did an analysis of this disparity in adjustment compared to other indebted countries that underwent "internal devaluation" early in the year:
http://www.bruegel.org/nc/blog/detail/article/1530-why-grexit-would-not-help-greece/
And a more recent article I came across notes:

In other words, unless Greece boosts exports, spending cuts will amplify the output loss in the same way that Keynesian multipliers amplified the output gain from borrowing.

The problem is that Greece produces very little of what the world wants to consume. Its exports of goods comprise mainly fruits, olive oil, raw cotton, tobacco, and some refined petroleum products. Germany, which many argue should spend more, imports just 0.2% of its goods from Greece. Tourism is a mature industry with plenty of regional competitors. The country produces no machines, electronics, or chemicals. Of every $10 of world trade in information technology, Greece accounts for $0.01.

Greece never had the productive structure to be as rich as it was: its income was inflated by massive amounts of borrowed money that was not used to upgrade its productive capacity. According to the Atlas of Economic Complexity, which I co-authored, in 2008 the gap between Greece's income and the knowledge content of its exports was the largest among a sample of 128 countries.

Read more at http://www.project-syndicate.org/co...-ricardo-hausmann-2015-03#lMfsOGBByKqyDBJk.99

I think regardless of the outcome of this referendum, the country (and it's lenders, should it return to the fold) need to address these issues if it's going to recover.

----
As a more general question, even if one accepts that "austerity" is no path to growth and that the various institutions significantly miscalculated the impact of reducing spending as fast as they did, I'm wondering does anyone actually think that Greece didn't need to undergo any fiscal consolidation?

 

[Kiko]

This is awesome. And so true in many ways...I really laughed haha

 

[protonion]

Maybe another greek can post details but that comic is not what happened (funny though!).

Greece failed to meet the requirements at first. Then the greek government along with the german and goldman sachs camouflaged the debt using swaps or something. Again someone with more knowledge can provide details. Germany was fully aware. And I believe everyone else.

It was not like the showed a paper with false numbers and the others said sure get on board!

Greece had to enter at all costs. Maybe due to its stategic position.

Being at Syntagma yesterday felt unreal btw!

 

[Theonik]

Seriously? That's just WTF levels of fun then as it has nothing to do with Greece at all.

(Sorry, taking some best guesses at the images posted since I don't read Greek).

That old woman has that shit on lockdown though. The look on her face is all "Don't even think about messing with me." She's ready to go Super Saiyan on someone shady.

MEGA Channel broadcast this image as part of their 'news' coverage last night, to show the suffering of the poor Greek pensioner.

Greek private media has been on a faux news campaign since the referendum was started. There was also newspaper articles using pictures from the 1999 earthquake in Turkey posted earlier in this thread.

It's good that Syriza at least managed to re-open state television last month so there is at least one channel airing both sides. I'm starting to think this is why they didn't do the referendum earlier.

 

[anonymous_abc]

So with a day to go, does anyone actually know what the Greek are voting for and what the consequences of either vote will be?
This seems like such a stab in the dark....

 

[Kuros]

=EDIT=
A Deutche Welle reporter tweeted that the crowd in the pro NO demonstration tonight was larger than the pro YES that took place at the same time in Kallimarmaron Stadium

http://www.koutipandoras.gr/article...galyteri-i-diadilosi-toy-ohi-apo-toy-nai-foto

Size of rallies is a very bad gauge of support for Yes or No. Especially given the demographics of the polling.

We'll see though.

 

[Theonik]

Size of rallies is a very bad gauge of support for Yes or No. Especially given the demographics of the polling.

We'll see though.

It appears that the Yes campaign is trying to scare farmers and focus on the periphery for their swing votes as well so Athens rallies wouldn't show that.

 

[Vlodril]

So with a day to go, does anyone actually know what the Greek are voting for and what the consequences of either vote will be?
This seems like such a stab in the dark....

its too close to call. who the fuck knows at this point. not sure what difference it will make anyway. i guess we ll see in a couple of days.

btw i just tried to buy rome total war attilla yesterday to play co-op with a friend and neither could do that. paypal rejected the claim. that was quite a feeling. (i know its insignificant but its the first thing to actually affect me out of this thing. Got gas easily. Got my meds easily. Paypal though nope denied ).

 

[norinrad]

For some strange reason, i keep thinking this has all been a bad long dream and that am going to wake up tomorrow with Greece still in the EU, their people, economy and everyone else all doing well.

 

[Theonik]

For some strange reason, i keep thinking this has all been a bad long dream and that am going to wake up tomorrow with Greece still in the EU, their people, economy and everyone else all doing well.

I'm sure many Greek people wish the last 5 years have been a bad dream and yet…

 

[TheLaughingStock]

I think this is an overlooked point of discussion (this post in itself sort of flew under the radar). Prior to the crisis, the current account balance was typically in double digit deficit.

The current account balance has actually entered surplus, but - and this is a big but - it's done so essentially due to a contraction of imports. Bruegel did an analysis of this disparity in adjustment compared to other indebted countries that underwent "internal devaluation" early in the year:
http://www.bruegel.org/nc/blog/detail/article/1530-why-grexit-would-not-help-greece/
And a more recent article I came across notes:


I think regardless of the outcome of this referendum, the country (and it's lenders, should it return to the fold) need to address these issues if it's going to recover.

----
As a more general question, even if one accepts that "austerity" is no path to growth and that the various institutions significantly miscalculated the impact of reducing spending as fast as they did, I'm wondering does anyone actually think that Greece didn't need to undergo any fiscal consolidation?

They don't need to. However, many folks believe discretionary fiscal consolidation rather than automatic (I'm assuming) is good. Moreover, they probably agree as the 2nd author put it, "Fiscal deficits, like unwanted pregnancies, are the unintended consequence of actions taken by more than one person who had other objectives in mind. And lack of fiscal control is what got Greece into trouble in the first place." Folks believe trash like that. Their ignorance brings suffering upon themselves.

If fiscal deficits are like unwanted pregnancies, then how does the author reconcile the fiscal history of countries around the world over time? I don't think a steady stream of surpluses caused the US to go from $71 million of treasuries outstanding in 1790 to $18.1 trillion in 2015. I could be wrong. Maybe countless governments balance their books and validate the author's macroeconomic truth. However, doing something so often that you don't want to do over a 226 year period sounds difficult to maintain. I don't think anyone forced the US to run deficits, issue bonds, and ensure the integrity of its system by decree. And the US is just one young country that's been fiscally out of control far longer than the author has been alive. And unfortunately for him, record low interest rates or not, countries will doing what they need to do long after he's dead.

In any event, the Greeks can do whatever they want. Stick with the plan or pull the plug that's on them. I personally wouldn't listen to incompetent folks, but it is what is. Facts don't change minds so I'm assuming they believe sticking with the plan is best thing for them to do.

 

[petran79]

MEGA Channel broadcast this image as part of their 'news' coverage last night, to show the suffering of the poor Greek pensioner.

Greek private media has been on a faux news campaign since the referendum was started. There was also newspaper articles using pictures from the 1999 earthquake in Turkey posted earlier in this thread.

It's good that Syriza at least managed to re-open state television last month so there is at least one channel airing both sides. I'm starting to think this is why they didn't do the referendum earlier.

Very few watch those state TV channels though, some dont even have them on the channel list! If you tell someone that you watch state TV, they'd be surprised!

The sad thing is that those private channels and radio stations are even popular in the provinces and rural regions, when in fact all they do is report just about Athens. They only report about other cities when there is a murder or a natural disaster. At least ERT is more balanced in that regard