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Greece to hold referendum on austerity measures 5 July

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petran79

Banned
I'd call Greek public servants lazy and teachers (it's ridiculous how broken the education in Greece is, you HAVE to take private lessons to learn English for example, there's no way around that).
But I've seen plenty of equally lazy German public servants.

You learn English because you watch foreign movies and series with subtitles, unlike Germany or Spain!

People in Greece work like any other country. Lazy and irresponsible cases are everywhere, even in the hardworking countries. But Greece has perhaps the most wasted and inefficient working hours in Europe. But that does not count as laziness. In the tourism industry working conditions are hell!

Regarding education, the GDP percentage spent there is very small. If you consider that the number of children compared to the 90s has been reduced (no double shift schools), this makes things even worse! Also teaching is perhaps the most difficult profession. 2 hours of teaching in class is equal to working 8 hours in an office.
 

FoxSpirit

Junior Member
I'd call Greek public servants lazy and teachers (it's ridiculous how broken the education in Greece is, you HAVE to take private lessons to learn English for example, there's no way around that).
But I've seen plenty of equally lazy German public servants.
That's the beauty of having stereotypes.
German engineering is best engineering. German work is hardest work.
And to drive it home, German soccer is always world class soccer. Always. People call it the oiled German steam engine.
Not bad when 150 years ago "Made in Germany" was the equivalent of "oh god, rubbish".
 

Theonik

Member
Not sure where I'd rate the result. I would say no but at the absence of reliable polls I'd be going in completely blind. Weak no sounds likely but there is no way of telling really.
 

LJ11

Member
38% of economists have no idea how the Greek people should vote tomorrow:

http://www.igmchicago.org/igm-economic-experts-panel/poll-results?SurveyID=SV_bg4hVAJ9aPP4YzX

Macroecon is still really young so we don't know what will happen from a No vote...

It's because this vote really is meaningless from a policy standpoint, so going with uncertain/not answering is probably the best course. Yes doesn't mean staying in the Euro, No doesn't mean leaving it, No may mean leaving, or Yes may mean staying. Ultimately, the vote will not change what the ECB decides to do.

I saw a flowchart yesterday from an RBS research note, 3 out of the 4 Yes/NO scenarios kept Greece within Euro. Vote doesnt mean much, it's not like the series of referendums Iceland had.

This vote sets up the blame game more than anything.

Edit: Richard Thaler had the best answer, lol.
 
It'll be yes. People always side on the side of fear in the end.

Ιf only pensioners knew what their YES votes would mean for their pensions and treatment costs. It is right there in the proposal on which the vote asks if one agrees or not:
http://www.newsbeast.gr/files/1/2015/06/sxedio.pdf
http://www.lifo.gr/now/politics/69595

Anyways, multiple reports of bosses (in importing companies and service) threatening their employees to vote YES.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AIPGqH0eG6w#t=218

Also, mayor of Athens (a friend of Benizelos and major PASOK supporter) had public workers take down NO flyes and posters from city streets, while leaving YES ones
http://www.proklitiko.gr/2015/07/vi...liloi-katevazoun-tis-afises-uper-tou-OXI.html
 

Reuenthal

Banned
Based on the poll I saw earlier posted here where it is neck and neck and KKE has about 50% of its voters vote in the poll,less than the other parties, if No loses, it might be because KKE decided not to vote No but to abstain really.
 
Based on the poll I saw earlier posted here where it is neck and neck and KKE has about 40% of its voters vote in the poll, if No loses, it might be because KKE decided not to vote No.

That moment when the freaking Golden Dawn has a more rational stance than you.
 

Mimosa97

Member
I heavly doubt that Germany will become isolated on any level due to this conflict.
This survey was already from 2013 but I doubt that the sides did change a lot.

FT_Stereotyping_Europe.png


or in other words:
greece.jpg


Wtf brits thinking we're the least thrustworthy ?

Brit-Gaf ! I request an apology !

That's actually hilarious :D Still shaking from those Napoleon wars I guess hahaha ... You won though so what are you afraid of ? :(
 

le-seb

Member
I've just watched some documentary on the history behind the integration of Greece in the European Community, and I must say that it was a real eye opener regarding the actual situation.

I'm honestly still not sure whether this referendum makes any sense besides telling the world that the situation is unsustainable, but like Dumas/Lamy/Vitorino said in their opinion column yesterday, there are very good reasons why the EU simply cannot let Greece down now, whatever the result.
 

spwolf

Member
Even if Greece votes No and exits the Euro, they are going to need to implement many of the market oriented reforms anyway if they don't want to be in the same situation a few decades from now. Of course Syrzia doesn't seem like a credible government to do that.

corrupt and inefficient govt has very little chance of implementing these measures or implementing new currency like drahma... that would be a colossal mistake and they know it. It is all just a game they are playing to get best possible terms, but in the meantime they are destroying the economy.

I am looking at it from perspective of my country which i consider very similar to Greece, although not as bad (when it comes to govt).... without someone else forcing these measures, they will always end up in crazy debt.
 

Chariot

Member
How the fuck are the Germans considered most trustworthy? They've only started two world wars.
On clock! Did you ever saw the canadians successfully starting up a World War™? Germany is the current leader in World Wars™, which we used to export globally and without many competitors getting a foodhold in the World Wars™ market.
 
On clock! Did you ever saw the canadians successfully starting up a World War™? Germany is the current leader in World Wars™, which we used to export globally and without many competitors getting a foodhold in the World Wars™ market.

True, but they're also the number 1 loser of world wars. They have, in fact, lost 100% of the world wars thety've been involved in, so...
 

Chariot

Member
True, but they're also the number 1 loser of world wars. They have, in fact, lost 100% of the world wars thety've been involved in, so...
Fair point. :(

Germany didn't really start world war one though.
Well, not alone, but they did push for it. It was for the Kaisereich to decide if they wanted to act with austria against serbia. It would've been at least not that war without Germany's action. Although we never know. Tensions were high in general. Could've been easily something lese triggering a war.
 
People protesting outside SKAI tv as well for its' agitprop.
http://www.zougla.gr/greece/article...oliton-pou-ton-katageloun-gia-parapliroforisi
Hopefully once this clears out, the media will be accounted for. You cannot tax evade and on the other hand be pro austerity for the people and totally distort reports.

Minister of Defence, Kammenos said on german tv that one of his prominent members and deputies was approached and bribed to root for YES
http://www.zougla.gr/politiki/article/vomva-kamenou

Also, the timing on this is peculiar:
http://thebricspost.com/100bn-brics-monetary-fund-to-be-operational-in-30-days/
 

Ether_Snake

安安安安安安安安安安安安安安安
That's crazy. Did they not have enough time to organise it correctly?

The way the system works here is that you vote wherever you choose, but you must have transferred your rights to the voting site of your choosing. That man must have voted in his village in the previous elections as well. My father chooses to do the same, despite the rest of my family voting in our city.
 
Anil Kashyap's primer on the crisis, from that link of economists was a good read.

Unless you have an inflation problem, I don't the necessity of raising taxes and cutting spending yourself. According to the IMF they somehow had a positive output gap of 10% in 2007 which doesn't make sense.

The fiscal consolidation as described by the OECD was gradual because that policy put the economy into recession for over 60 months. If they had done nothing and just obstructed like the Republicans in America, then tax revenue would have automatically rose and non-discretionary spending would've have fallen. The fact that automatic stabilizers would've done a better job at reducing gov't deficits and the accumulation of debt is the entire point. All they had to do was take a seat and relax...instead they were doing too much and failed spectacularly.
Hmm, could you elaborate a bit more [for the non-economist.] Edit: On how this would have come about in the hypothetical scenario, to clarify.

If I understand correctly, you're saying in the event of no intervention, Greece would have managed to automatically reduce their spending and/or increase revenue naturally and reduce both their double-digit deficits and debt? And this would have presumably produced a more favourable economic outcome than the current mess.

But in the event of no intervention and the inability to borrow elsewhere, wouldn't the reduction in spending had to have been much more abrupt, (assuming the country didn't just default on its debt back then.)
It's an inherent problem with the Euro, there will be creditor nations running big current account surpluses and debtor nations with current account deficits that in turn finance the deficit by borrowing from creditor nations. Only way to bring down effective exchange rate is by reducing internal costs, ie slash wages or by becoming much more productive which is hard to do during a recession.

Every sovereign debt problem has roots in balance of trade. Hard to solve it when you have a monetary union, but no fiscal union. Most people don't realize it, hard to wrap your head around the idea that one country in the union can have a cheaper currency than another member even if they all use the same currency. Not everyone has the same cost structure.
I think the Bruegel analysis touches on this? But in the comparison, it seems despite having a "cheap currency" in labour cost, it's done very little in terms of improving export performance.

In the event of Grexit from the common currency and consequent devaluation, would one expect considerable improvement [without considerable other reforms]?
 
In the event of Grexit from the common currency and consequent devaluation, would one expect considerable improvement [without considerable other reforms]?

In the trade balance? That comes almost automatically with devaluation. If your money is worth very little, you'll look to the internal market with far more vigor.

Was trying to find charts to demonstrate this, but oil exports skew this thing to hell. Ironically, it does a good job of showing how massively Germany benefits from a cheap euro.
 

oti

Banned
Today's the day. Couldn't really sleep last night. Voting for me is out of the question, I don't even know how I could do it and knowing the Greek consulat here in Hamburg, no thanks.
 
A

A More Normal Bird

Unconfirmed Member
As a more general question, even if one accepts that "austerity" is no path to growth and that the various institutions significantly miscalculated the impact of reducing spending as fast as they did, I'm wondering does anyone actually think that Greece didn't need to undergo any fiscal consolidation?
It's a bit of a loaded question. I don't think there's much doubt that Greece could have more effective fiscal policy, but looking at government budget balances or debt levels by themselves tell us very little about policy effectiveness or profligacy. Furthermore, we can't isolate the pluses and minuses of any particular public spending level in Greece without recognising that the circumstances are significantly impacted by the flaws and inequities of the monetary union as well as the demands of the Troika. If I were to ignore those details, then I would answer your question with a yes: deliberately trying to reduce total government outlays would have been a bad idea in the midst of the GFC.

Hmm, could you elaborate a bit more [for the non-economist.] Edit: On how this would have come about in the hypothetical scenario, to clarify.

If I understand correctly, you're saying in the event of no intervention, Greece would have managed to automatically reduce their spending and/or increase revenue naturally and reduce both their double-digit deficits and debt? And this would have presumably produced a more favourable economic outcome than the current mess.

But in the event of no intervention and the inability to borrow elsewhere, wouldn't the reduction in spending had to have been much more abrupt, (assuming the country didn't just default on its debt back then.)
I'm assuming that TheLaughingStock's post is referring to a scenario where some sort of bail-out deal without austerity was introduced. If there was no deal or bail-out at all it is likely that Greece would have defaulted and perhaps restored its own currency much earlier. In either case, the crux of that post holds: if an economy is recovering from a recession/depression endogenous changes in public expenditure/revenue as a result of automatic stabilisers will cause deficits to decrease and debt/GDP ratios to fall (as the economy grows), whereas unless the downturn can be directly attributed to excessive government spending (e.g. an inflationary recession) policies such as austerity will be pro-cyclical, exacerbating the economic decline.

It's important to keep in mind that although the general narrative is often boiled down to the rights or wrongs of austerity as some sort of penance for Greek profligacy, not even the architects of the policy envisioned or described it as such (at least not publicly). The initial modelling from the IMF was based around government expenditure having a multiplier effect of less than 1, i.e. they believed (for whatever reason) that not only was austerity necessary to reduce the debt and deficits of the Greek government, but that it would do so by bringing Greece out of recession and supporting the strong economic growth that government spending was somehow preventing.
 

LJ11

Member
I think the Bruegel analysis touches on this? But in the comparison, it seems despite having a "cheap currency" in labour cost, it's done very little in terms of improving export performance.

In the event of Grexit from the common currency and consequent devaluation, would one expect considerable improvement [without considerable other reforms]?

I believe I brought this up in the previous thread, but no I don't expect a drastic turnaround. You may get a bounce, especially via tourism, but for sustainable growth you need more.

Italy is a good example. They ran the smallest current account deficit during the boom years, have a current account surplus now, QE and a cheaper currency have helped exports but they haven't gone anywhere (even during the boom years they really didn't boom in real terms). Italy is basically two countries, the North and the South. The South is basically Greece 2.0 in many ways. The south of Italy is poorer than Greece and has higher unemployment than any other Euro area, even higher than Greece. North is a different story, not amazing but limping along given the circumstances.

It's a bad idea to peg currencies, but removing the peg isn't a cure all. Italy/Greece are very similar, except Italy has the North, Greece doesn't even have that. Tough road ahead, they really are starting from scratch in many ways.

Good luck tomorrow to all my Greek brother & sisters, stay strong, and hope for the best!
 

Qassim

Member
Wtf brits thinking we're the least thrustworthy ?

Brit-Gaf ! I request an apology !

That's actually hilarious :D Still shaking from those Napoleon wars I guess hahaha ... You won though so what are you afraid of ? :(

Haha, I like to think it's just propping up a centuries old rivalry for the sake of old times.
 
It's a bit of a loaded question. I don't think there's much doubt that Greece could have more effective fiscal policy, but looking at government budget balances or debt levels by themselves tell us very little about policy effectiveness or profligacy. Furthermore, we can't isolate the pluses and minuses of any particular public spending level in Greece without recognising that the circumstances are significantly impacted by the flaws and inequities of the monetary union as well as the demands of the Troika. If I were to ignore those details, then I would answer your question with a yes: deliberately trying to reduce total government outlays would have been a bad idea in the midst of the GFC.

I'm assuming that TheLaughingStock's post is referring to a scenario where some sort of bail-out deal without austerity was introduced. If there was no deal or bail-out at all it is likely that Greece would have defaulted and perhaps restored its own currency much earlier. In either case, the crux of that post holds: if an economy is recovering from a recession/depression endogenous changes in public expenditure/revenue as a result of automatic stabilisers will cause deficits to decrease and debt/GDP ratios to fall (as the economy grows), whereas unless the downturn can be directly attributed to excessive government spending (e.g. an inflationary recession) policies such as austerity will be pro-cyclical, exacerbating the economic decline.

It's important to keep in mind that although the general narrative is often boiled down to the rights or wrongs of austerity as some sort of penance for Greek profligacy, not even the architects of the policy envisioned or described it as such (at least not publicly). The initial modelling from the IMF was based around government expenditure having a multiplier effect of less than 1, i.e. they believed (for whatever reason) that not only was austerity necessary to reduce the debt and deficits of the Greek government, but that it would do so by bringing Greece out of recession and supporting the strong economic growth that government spending was somehow preventing.
Thanks for your response, and I probably should have queried in a way that came across less loaded. I was simply curious whether there was any sentiment that fiscal policy as it was, was considered as you put it, effective, and not in need of any change prior to this crisis, which it sometimes seems like.

The first hypothetical scenario you mention, sounds like it would have entailed more of a stimulating rescue package. How something like that played out would certainly be interesting, although I think politically implausible.

I think the notion that austere fiscal policy would support or promote strong economic growth has been quite debunked, given the situation we see. At the same time, there seem to be a lot of underlying issues with the Greek economy (and probably how suited its place in the Eurozone is I suppose) and I don't know what a plausible solution would have been wherein the creditors wouldn't have demanded a reduction in deficit/a transition towards a primary surplus to at least keep up the pretense to their voters that this debt would be paid.
 
Anil Kashyap's primer on the crisis, from that link of economists was a good read.

Hmm, could you elaborate a bit more [for the non-economist.] Edit: On how this would have come about in the hypothetical scenario, to clarify.

If I understand correctly, you're saying in the event of no intervention, Greece would have managed to automatically reduce their spending and/or increase revenue naturally and reduce both their double-digit deficits and debt? And this would have presumably produced a more favourable economic outcome than the current mess.

But in the event of no intervention and the inability to borrow elsewhere, wouldn't the reduction in spending had to have been much more abrupt, (assuming the country didn't just default on its debt back then.)
I think the Bruegel analysis touches on this? But in the comparison, it seems despite having a "cheap currency" in labour cost, it's done very little in terms of improving export performance.

In the event of Grexit from the common currency and consequent devaluation, would one expect considerable improvement [without considerable other reforms]?

The country could've exited, then put their financial institutions into receivership. Or they could've asked for help to stabilize the banks. The troika could've handled that, then went ahead and sat down. In the US, Ben Bernanke (running the Fed) didn't turn around and pound on the table for fiscal consolidation after stabilizing the financial system. Instead, he whined repeatedly about tax increases/spending cuts which is the opposite of the public sector doing too much for the economy. Even if the US didn't do anything material positive or negative over the 3 years or so the Fed complained...compared to our neighbors across the water we're looking good by doing essentially nothing. So to clarify, I really mean the second phase of intervention. After the economy stabilizes and you punish banks or look the other way, then what do you choose to do? In much of Europe's case, they wanted to go after unions and social policies for no reason. They're simply terrible people with no conscience.

http://www.ilo.org/wcmsp5/groups/pu...russels/documents/publication/wcms_236717.pdf

ILO said:
Such social protection expenditure remained high in the first years of the crisis of 2007–2009, acting as a useful cushion to minimize the social costs of the crisis. At the same time, a number of countries successfully used ESM tools, such as shorter working time schemes and social dialogue to negotiate alternatives to massive layoffs during the downturn. By contrast, countries without such mechanisms could not avoid immediate layoffs and high unemployment growth. Paradoxically, despite this resilience of social policy in the first part of the crisis, most European countries when confronted by public debts – in large part due to their support of indebted banks – in the second phase of the crisis have implemented austerity policies that involved significant cuts in public expenditure and social welfare, although it is recognised that social policy was not among the causes of the crisis. This volume shows that beyond the diversity and different magnitudes of the changes by country – the European Social Model being resilient in some while others have opted for its dismantling – these changes nevertheless have been considerable and have affected all the main pillars and elements of the European Social Model (see Table 1.3 at the end of this chapter). Not only were quantitative adjustments made – particularly in the public sector – but also more structural changes were carried out, concerning for instance access to unemployment benefits, pensions, social assistance, labour market measures, public services and social dialogue. The changes were most radical in the most indebted countries of the euro zone; the strategy to exit the crisis advised by the Troika called for a cut in all expenditure to reduce deficits and lower unit labour costs – generally to be achieved through wage cuts and dismantling of collective bargaining – to improve individual countries’ competitiveness
 

benjipwns

Banned
I don't know if The Ben Bernank is the ideal guy to point to for dealing with economic issues. We could pull in Alan Greenspan and make things really bad for everyone but the largest financial institutions. That's one way to go certainly.
 
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