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[Theonik]

The pinnacle of Greek-German cooperation. Anyone remember Otto 'Rehakles' Rehhagel?

We should return to the good old days.

 

[My words exactly!]

Daily greek media report (warning, a paper bag would be a good idea. Don't say i didn't warn you...):

- SKAI channel's official twitter account is plastered with "pro YES" banners. Gee, wasn't press supposed to be unbiased? At least they dropped the pretences.

- MEGA TV had a live feed this morning from a pensioners' line outside a bank's ATM. A pensioner started blasting the pro austerity camp and rooting for NO, something that they clearly weren't expecting so they cut him off:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=srtDNgB94aU&feature=youtu.be

- They also cut off (again, LIVE) a popular actor that works for a MEGA telenovela but dared to criticize the media for all the agitprop campaign of the last few days during an interview
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GZQ9b12X7ac


- Former MEGA and SKAI reporter, and Huffington Post editor, "greek" Sofia Papaiwannou has been fired from her job by Arianna Huffington cause she was caught tampering reports from Greece and editing articles in order for the pro YES camp to appear more popular.
http://www.koutipandoras.gr/article...ke-i-sofia-papaioannoy-apo-ti-huffington-post

 

[hydrophilic attack]

Re-read your own link. Those projected 'unsustainable' debt levels are significantly lower than today's debt levels (118% vs 175%). That is debt reduction. Will they need another bailout or a debt write-off in 2030? Maybe. But those projections are correct, it will be much smaller than than today.

I did read it, and I did notice that.

Doesn't change the fact that the Troika, who have been known to totally misjudge the effect of their proposed policies on Greece before (see picture below), in their own calculations, making questionable assumptions that are as favourable to their proposed program as possible, estimate that their own program, after 15 years of intensified austerity with associated pain, still will not bring Greek debt to a sustainable level. They are basically proposing for Greece to remain in a depression for 20+ years. They have to understand that the Greek government can never accept such terms.

 

[Theonik]

- They also cut off (again, LIVE) a popular actor that works for a MEGA telenovela but dared to criticize the media for all the agitprop campaign of the last few days during an interview
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GZQ9b12X7ac

"It's not my fault that all social casts are on the yes side!" This is the best.

 

[Syriel]

To add to this. Most people working normal salaried positions would have their earnings written down by their employers, and often the tax paid directly as salary deductions. Of course self-employed professionals and businesses get to fudge their books if they please before getting caught presumably. But taxes are complicated in general everywhere. And with regards to the death threats, I remember stories from people working in the US tax agencies as well. Anyone who thinks this is exclusive to Greece and isn't a common part of every single country in the world is delusional. (Being a taxman is one of the WORST jobs you could have)

US tax collectors don't screw around.

If they think you owe money and you're overdue...it just gets pulled straight out of your bank account.

Threatening an official is a crime (and would result in jail time for the offender).

If you have any doubts about the US taxmen (and women), do recall that it was the taxman that put Al Capone behind bars.

What that article describes in Greece (if true) is a far cry from other Western countries.

 

[petran79]

Two 18 year old Germans were arrested in island of Kerkyra for taking down the Greek flag from the fortress, tearing it and burring it.

8 months suspended sentence

They were lucky I guess

 

[Vlodril]

i am impressed tsipras actually mentioned the 8 mins versus 46 coverage on the no/yes rallies. the journalist bypassed it completely

 

[Joni]

France, through the EFSF?
You can add the 11+ billion Euros France has directly borrowed for Greece, then.

No, I was thinking more about the place that recommends undoing the debt. You know, the one that was the first to stop negotiating with Greece.

 

[Theonik]

US tax collectors don't screw around.
If they think you owe money and you're overdue...it just gets pulled straight out of your bank account.
Threatening an official is a crime (and would result in jail time for the offender).
If you have any doubts about the US taxmen (and women), do recall that it was the taxman that put Al Capone behind bars.
What that article describes in Greece (if true) is a far cry from other Western countries.

I am not comparing the effectiveness and bite of Greek tax officials to the IRS for obvious reason. Just the tax employee experience, which is equally awful everywhere. The difference here is of course, that chances you could actually get away with pulling that shit vs the IRS are much lower. Problem is momentum I guess.

 

[le-seb]

No, I was thinking more about the place that recommends undoing the debt. You know, the one that was the first to stop negotiating with Greece.

Can't see where your 32 billion Euros number comes from, in this case.
Would you have a source for it?

 

[Joni]

Can't see where your 32 billion Euros number comes from, in this case.
Would you have a source for it?

http://money.cnn.com/2015/01/28/investing/greek-debt-who-has-most-to-lose/
And as stated there, IMF has never offered relief.

 

[Theonik]

http://money.cnn.com/2015/01/28/inve...-most-to-lose/

Part of the IMF capital is already paid back. I think it's in the low 20ish at this moment.

 

[le-seb]

Part of the IMF capital is already paid back. I think it's in the low 20ish at this moment.

Yeah, less than 22 billion Euros now.

 

[CTLance]

Two 18 year old Germans were arrested in island of Kerkyra for taking down the Greek flag from the fortress, tearing it and burring it.

8 months suspended sentence

They were lucky I guess

Have a link for that? Google news isn't being cooperative at all no matter what combination of Kerkyra(/Corfu?), Germans, flag and fortress I input.

Because shit like that boils my blood. Let me at those little shits.

Fucking hell.

I apologize for my fellow Germans. They would have deserved any "accidental" spankings they could have received - but did not. Good work, Greeks.

 

[Joni]

Part of the IMF capital is already paid back. I think it's in the low 20ish at this moment.

Still, 22 billion would still be a nice way to show IMF isn't just asking Europe to do as they tell, not do as they do.

 

[Theonik]

Still, 22 billion would still be a nice way to show IMF isn't just asking Europe to do as they tell, not do as they do.

This isn't the role of the IMF. Merkel should have known before bringing them into this mess.

 

[Aureon]

It may be indeed, but before you can say that your assertion is proven, to such an extend,––and, by the way, that the evidence is so widely known,––that anyone disagreeing with the assertion is a liar (because denying is lying too), a lot more work needs to be done. You need huge swaths of data collected by independent researchers (not Eurostat such as the data in this plot), about situations that are as varying as can be imagined, not just Greece but elsewhere and at different times; you also need a much better understanding of sociology and economies than we currently have, and all this data should point towards the conclusion that what you stated is true. Then we can say that austerity advocates are malevolent or deniers, but to do so now is false.

My point was merely about this, not about whether austerity is or isn't a good idea. As far as I'm concerned the EU can sod off out of Greece while there is still some of it left.

Uh, this is economics.
Everything is false until proven right - much like anywhere else.
Especially wild theories that go against orthodox economics that have worked perfectly well for a century.

There's no need (or way to) thoroughly test "as many situations as possible", because economists can't run controlled experiments. Or shouldn't, anyway.

 

[chadskin]

The daily allowance of cash from many ATM machines has already dropped from €60 to €50, purportedly because €20 notes are running out. Large numbers are empty. The financial contagion is spreading fast as petrol stations and small businesses stop accepting credit cards.

Constantine Michalos, head of the Hellenic Chambers of Commerce, said lenders are simply running out of money. "We are reliably informed that the cash reserves of the banks are down to €500m. Anybody who thinks they are going to open again on Tuesday is day-dreaming. The cash would not last an hour," he said.

The mood within the Syriza movement is increasingly bitter and polarized. One MP appeared to have lost confidence in the party leadership. "We have had months of childish tactics. They thought they could blackmail Europe into making concessions instead of going to the root of the problem facing this country and accepting that we have to break free altogether. They don't know what they are doing," he told The Telegraph.

More: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/...500m-in-cash-reserves-as-economy-crashes.html

 

[Joni]

This isn't the role of the IMF. Merkel should have known before bringing them into this mess.

It however remains very backwards for the IMF to preach for debt relaxation and less austerity on one hand, and on the other hand, to very heavily reinforce Greece's debt to them and leaving the table immediately during negotiations.

 

[Coriolanus]

It however remains very backwards for the IMF to preach for debt relaxation and less austerity on one hand, and on the other hand, to very heavily reinforce Greece's debt to them and leaving the table immediately during negotiations.

IMF studies =/= IMF leadership.

Kinda like how nearly every government in western nations tells their board of doctors to get fucked whenever they suggest that heavily criminalizing drug use is a pants-on-head retarded decision.

 

[hydrophilic attack]

There seems to be quite a rift growing within the Troika, with IMF in favour of debt release and the EC firmly against (I'm not sure where the ECB is standing, probably somewhere in the middle). Some interesting quotes from The Guardian's reporting on the IMF report arguing for debt relief:

The IMF said that is was releasing its preliminary draft debt sustainability analysis as a result of the leaks of documents reported in the Guardian earlier this week.

Significantly, it said its assessment had “not been agreed with the other parties in the policy discussions” – an admission that the fund is at odds with its troika partners, the European commission and the European Central Bank – over the need for debt relief.

The official said he had refused to put forward plans for a further bailout of Greece to the IMF board without a comprehensive deal that included debt relief.

“We cannot go to our board with this report unless we have a credible programme that is sustainable and with a policy from the EU on debt relief. We want a comprehensive solution and cannot go to the IMF board without it.

This shows that the Greek government was right to call for a referendum about the latest offer, because if they can use this rift to their advantage (a rift that may not have come to light without the upcoming referendum) they should be able to negotiate a much better deal in the future. This should hopefully help sway public option in Greece's direction a bit, and hopefully get some much-needed momentum back into the No campaign.

 

[uuaschbaer]

Everything is false until proven right - much like anywhere else.
Especially wild theories that go against orthodox economics that have worked perfectly well for a century.

If you assert:

Austerity has been throughly debunked as a viable economic theory for recovery during a recession.

then judge:

If you still believe it, you're no better than a climate change denier.

then you owe the people you judge the overwhelming evidence you claim exists. If economics is not reliable enough a science to produce this evidence then you oughn't make such judgements.

There's no need (or way to) thoroughly test "as many situations as possible"

Never mind the fact that I didn't say this, there is by definition a way to test as many situations possible.

 

[hydrophilic attack]

you owe the people you judge the overwhelming evidence you claim exists.

People on here that lean Keynesian tend to post charts and graphs backing their points up on a regular basis. Not only do the people here leaning pro-austerity often fail to provide effective counter-arguments, they often fail to engage with the arguments and proof laid out by Keynesians at all. Furthermore, resources where you can learn more (such as Paul Krugman's excellent and entertaining blog) are readily available. In the end, it's just tiring to put time into making these posts over and over again while the other side just fails to engage you in discussion.

 

[Theonik]

This is a very interesting panel with Varoufakis from the 8th of June.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ex20y_p3Qv8
Has this been posted in these threads before?

 

[le-seb]

There seems to be quite a rift growing within the Troika, with IMF in favour of debt release and the EC firmly against (I'm not sure where the ECB is standing, probably somewhere in the middle).

At this point, I really wonder whether the EU countries funding the Greek debt are ready to bleed any more money to keep the country afloat.

 

[uuaschbaer]

People on here that lean Keynesian tend to post charts and graphs backing their points up on a regular basis. Not only do the people here leaning pro-austerity often fail to provide effective counter-arguments, they often fail to engage with the arguments and proof laid out by Keynesians at all. Furthermore, resources where you can learn more (such as Paul Krugman's excellent and entertaining blog) are readily available. In the end, it's just tiring to put time into making these posts over and over again while the other side just fails to engage you in discussion.

If someone judges others negatively on the basis of alleged evidence and then fails to present it then he's wronged whom he judged. When the evidence is weak it is careless to judge as if the evidence is absolute.
The alleged availability of evidence or being tired seem to me not to justify treating others badly, which is what this is about. Not about whether austerity works or not, but about whether the fact that you can't be certain should keep you from declaring your opponents denialists.

 

[Guileless]

People on here that lean Keynesian tend to post charts and graphs backing their points up on a regular basis.

The only chart that really matters is Greek bond yields. Greece had a successful bond auction and the economy arrested its freefall just before Syriza took office. Total shitshow since.

 

[hydrophilic attack]

The alleged availability of evidence or being tired seem to me not to justify treating others badly, which is what this is about. Not about whether austerity works or not, but about whether the fact that you can't be certain should keep you from declaring your opponents denialists.

On the one hand, putting the person you are discussing with on the defensive by using terms such as 'denialist' may be counter-productive. On the other hand, responding to someone's data (s/he did post graphs and stuff) by going "oh my, there is just so much (unspecified) uncertainty in the world; why, I hardly even know if we even exist; how do I know that you're not a robot?" rather than responding with your own data and arguments to counter their points, doesn't really lead to a very fruitful discussion.

But who am I to talk really, I've allowed myself to be drawn into a meta-debate about a debate, and there literally are only a handful of things less productive to be doing with your limited time on earth.

The only chart that really matters is Greek bond yields. Greece had a successful bond auction and the economy arrested its freefall just before Syriza took office. Total shitshow since.

Mind posting this chart and explaining what conclusions you are drawing from it, so that I know what point you are arguing? (Note: I should be going to bed soon, so I may not be able to respond before tomorrow.)

 

[Aureon]

Never mind the fact that I didn't say this, there is by definition a way to test as many situations possible.

The very verb is incorrect: There's no way to make controlled tests in economics. There's just post-hoc observations, which have known limits.

Still, i posted the data. There's a positive argument for austerity you want to make, or is this a "But we need MORE data!" argument?

It's been as thoroughly debunked as anything can reasonably be in economics - i posted a graph which is, in fact, the very sum of all data we have in merit of government spending affecting economic growth during a recession.

If you think that data is somehow insufficient, please make the positive argument in favor of expansionary austerity, or explain why should the opposite camp prove a theory incorrect.
Now, and again i don't want to accuse you or anybody else of being a climate change denier, i hope you can see the similarity of the tactics employed: No positive argument, just a "But the data is insufficient" claim backed up by nothing.

If someone judges others negatively on the basis of alleged evidence and then fails to present it then he's wronged whom he judged. When the evidence is weak it is careless to judge as if the evidence is absolute.
The alleged availability of evidence or being tired seem to me not to justify treating others badly, which is what this is about. Not about whether austerity works or not, but about whether the fact that you can't be certain should keep you from declaring your opponents denialists.

Again, if you don't want to be compared to bad groups, don't use their tactics. Asking the opposite camp to provide overwhelming evidence against a theory backed up by none is exactly what i'm talking about.

 

[Zultan]

People on here that lean Keynesian tend to post charts and graphs backing their points up on a regular basis. Not only do the people here leaning pro-austerity often fail to provide effective counter-arguments, they often fail to engage with the arguments and proof laid out by Keynesians at all. Furthermore, resources where you can learn more (such as Paul Krugman's excellent and entertaining blog) are readily available. In the end, it's just tiring to put time into making these posts over and over again while the other side just fails to engage you in discussion.

It appears that Greece had hit its trough prior to the Syriza election. And yes, I have a few charts.

While the situation was still quite difficult, Greece was stabilizing.

 

[Piecake]

This has probably been already posted, but, man, no words...

Greek crisis: NSA phone tap of Angela Merkel reveals she knew Greece's debt was unsustainable

Back in 2011, before the most recent reorganization of Greek debt, German Chancellor Angela Merkel told her personal assistant that Greece's debts would still be unsustainable under the terms of the new arrangement unless it received more generous assistance from Germany and other wealthier European countries.

 

[My words exactly!]

Have a link for that? Google news isn't being cooperative at all no matter what combination of Kerkyra(/Corfu?), Germans, flag and fortress I input.

Because shit like that boils my blood. Let me at those little shits.

Fucking hell.

I apologize for my fellow Germans. They would have deserved any "accidental" spankings they could have received - but did not. Good work, Greeks.

http://news247.gr/eidiseis/koinonia/akraia-proklhsh-apo-germanous-toyristes-poy-katevasan-thn-shmaia-mas-apo-to-frourio-sthn-kerkyra.3556726.html

They were a group of 18yo students.

Don't worry we know that the average German is much more civilised and means good despite what the media would have us believe (i hope same goes for your people and Bild towards us ), the issues that have arisen are between corrupted and power hungry cliques and not between our people.

As a matter of fact here's something from yesterday that proves my point: a german couple at vacation on greece, left a note on the receipt
http://www.sdna.gr/gr/politiko-deltio/ellada/arthro-ellada/49325/germanoi-zitoun-sugnomi-pic/

 

[Aureon]

It appears that Greece had hit its trough prior to the Syriza election. And yes, I have a few charts.

Greece 2013 GDP: 248b
Greece 2014 GDP: 241b

There's literally been two quarters of modest growth. Graphs are filled with such - even at the height of the crisis, the 2nd quarter of 2009 was at +2.6, for example.

Besides, 'stabilizing' at -30% of gdp isn't very much of an achievement, is it. Especially with the comparison to the USA's comparison: In literally the year of bounceback, 1933-1934, New Deal started to happen.

If this is a way to say that Greece needs a new deal, welp, yes?

 

[uuaschbaer]

On the one hand, putting the person you are discussing with on the defensive by using terms such as 'denialist' may be counter-productive. On the other hand, responding to someone's data (s/he did post graphs and stuff) by going "oh my, there is just so much (unspecified) uncertainty in the world; why, I hardly even know if we even exist; how do I know that you're not a robot?" rather than responding with your own data and arguments to counter their points, doesn't really lead to a very fruitful discussion.

But who am I to talk really, I've allowed myself to be drawn into a meta-debate about a debate, and there literally are only a handful of things less productive to be doing with your limited time on earth.

Different standards of evidence may be why two people disagree, in which case it may be helpful to identify it as the cause as further reasoning would be fruitless. Decorum is no less important; if someone with an argument chooses not to post it as he thinks he won't be treated fairly it's a loss to all potential readers.

Having established the former within a lengthy discussion, of course there is no point in being overly meticulous about peripheral issues, I fully agree. An inviting atmosphere, however, seems to me worth arguing for.

 

[Coriolanus]

The only chart that really matters is Greek bond yields. Greece had a successful bond auction and the economy arrested its freefall just before Syriza took office. Total shitshow since.

The only chart that really matters is this one chart that can support my argument if you focus on six to nine months out of sixty.

Come on mate, don't try to play this kinda nonsense here. You won't get away with it.

 

[uuaschbaer]

The very verb is incorrect: There's no way to make controlled tests in economics. There's just post-hoc observations, which have known limits.

Still, i posted the data. There's a positive argument for austerity you want to make, or is this a "But we need MORE data!" argument?

It's been as thoroughly debunked as anything can reasonably be in economics - i posted a graph which is, in fact, the very sum of all data we have in merit of government spending affecting economic growth during a recession.

If you think that data is somehow insufficient, please make the positive argument in favor of expansionary austerity, or explain why should the opposite camp prove a theory incorrect.
Now, and again i don't want to accuse you or anybody else of being a climate change denier, i hope you can see the similarity of the tactics employed: No positive argument, just a "But the data is insufficient" claim backed up by nothing.

Human societies are incredibly complex and chaotic systems, this means that to predict how they react to a policy you require incredibly accurate observation of endless variables and intimate knowledge of the mechanisms that govern the system, we have none of these things. This is why any evidence you can produce would not suffice for you to conclude that an opponent is a denialist, so I think you shouldn't.

The matter of whether or not it could reasonably be more thoroughly debunked in economics limits the usability of economics as a science, it is not an argument for careless judgements.

Again, if you don't want to be compared to bad groups, don't use their tactics. Asking the opposite camp to provide overwhelming evidence against a theory backed up by none is exactly what i'm talking about.

I'm confused as to what sense you're using "you" in now, but I'm quite sure I haven't used any tactic other than reason. I did state, and do maintain, that if you claim to have overwhelming evidence and justify your judgement of others on the basis of this claim, then you should be able to present it.

 

[Deleted member 231381]

Human societies are incredibly complex and chaotic systems, this means that to predict how they react to a policy you require incredibly accurate observation of endless variables and intimate knowledge of the mechanisms that govern the system, we have none of these things. This is why any evidence you can produce would not suffice for you to conclude that an opponent is a denialist, so I think you shouldn't.

Yes and no. We don't need to know how quarks work to be able to describe Newtonian mechanics. They break down when we need to examine at a closer level, but they're adequate for the vast majority of our needs. Humans are similar. We are, indeed, very complex - but nevertheless, surprisingly predictable.

 

[Zultan]

Greece 2013 GDP: 248b
Greece 2014 GDP: 241b

There's literally been two quarters of modest growth. Graphs are filled with such - even at the height of the crisis, the 2nd quarter of 2009 was at +2.6, for example.

Besides, 'stabilizing' at -30% of gdp isn't very much of an achievement, is it. Especially with the comparison to the USA's comparison: In literally the year of bounceback, 1933-1934, New Deal started to happen.

If this is a way to say that Greece needs a new deal, welp, yes?

Do you think Greece can afford it without going bust?

 

[Deleted member 231381]

Do you think Greece can afford it without going bust?

Greece can't afford anything without going bust, which is why it should stop trying and simply go bust.

 

[uuaschbaer]

Yes and no. We don't need to know how quarks work to be able to describe Newtonian mechanics. They break down when we need to examine at a closer level, but they're adequate for the vast majority of our needs. Humans are similar. We are, indeed, very complex - but nevertheless, surprisingly predictable.

In this analogy inventing the EM drive could be equivalent to inventing a way of making austerity policy work, in which case it'd be clear that declaring proponents of austerity policy to be denialists is unjust.

If in physics it is wise to be cautious in these matters, then doubly so in economics.

 

[Zultan]

Greece can't afford anything without going bust, which is why it should stop trying and simply go bust.

Pre-Syriza, I argue that bust was avoidable. It would have been hard. It would have taken a LONG time to fully right the boat, but I think it could have happened barring another economic downturn.

The trough was hit it appears. The budget deficit would have been at 0 or at a surplus within a year. GDP was starting to increase. With the deficit at 0, any improvement in GDP would have aided in both paying down the debt as well as slowly increasing spending. I think Greece had a chance to right itself in about 10 years time with the debt paid down to a reasonable level and the economy back above it's pre-recession high.

Financial system meltdowns are very hard to recover from and hurt for a very long time. Much longer than normal recessions.

If Greece goes bust (which under Syriza seems very likely), it will take a VERY long time until they can borrow again at low interest rates.

 

[hydrophilic attack]

It appears that Greece had hit its trough prior to the Syriza election. And yes, I have a few charts.

While the situation was still quite difficult, Greece was stabilizing.

Well, first allow me to say that these are not the chart you promised, indeed, the only one, which by your own words, would be the only chart that mattered. There are no bond yields in there. Also, the data in the first chart you posted ended more than a year before Syriza came into power, which was the specific point in time you said you had interesting data for! Still, I would say the metrics in these charts are much more meaningful than bond yields, so that's fine by me.

Second, the charts you did post don't really do much to convince me. Technically, you are correct that the second graph shows that the freefall arrested in 2014, but I don't think that, by itself, is very meaningful. If you say that's a recovery starting in 2014, I would say that's a modest fucking recovery, hardly distinguishable from random noise.

Also, note when the freefall in the second graph really gets going: 2 years after the start of the crisis, 2010, which, as shown in your first graph, is when the Troika started imposing austerity on Greece

If we indeed started seeing a recovery in 2014, stopping this recovery in its track with more austerity, which is what the Troika has been arguing for all year, sounds like a bad idea to me.

 

[pigeon]

Do you think Greece can afford it without going bust?

Sure. Someone just needs to lend it some money.

 

[hydrophilic attack]

Pre-Syriza, I argue that bust was avoidable. It would have been hard. It would have taken a LONG time to fully right the boat, but I think it could have happened barring another economic downturn.

The trough was hit it appears. The budget deficit would have been at 0 or at a surplus within a year. GDP was starting to increase. With the deficit at 0, any improvement in GDP would have aided in both paying down the debt as well as slowly increasing spending. I think Greece had a chance to right itself in about 10 years time with the debt paid down to a reasonable level and the economy back above it's pre-recession high.

First, let me say that expecting ten year without another economic downturn sounds stupidly optimistic to me, considering how often we have been having them lately in the wake of banking deregulation.

Second, even the Troika's own calculations show that if Greece were to follow the Troika's suggested program, their debt would still not be at a sustainable level by 2030 (source), so the ten year number also sounds awfully optimistic.

Third, even if your ten year estimation was realistic, another ten year of austerity, reduced benefits and unemployment sounds really fucking painful

If Greece goes bust (which under Syriza seems very likely), it will take a VERY long time until they can borrow again at low interest rates.

I'm not sure why that really matters? If Greece goes bust and starts ignoring their current debts, they would pretty soon (after the initial chaos, which could last for a few years, but very likely much less than ten) be running a surplus, as they have been running a primary surplus for a while, with only interest payments pushing them into a deficit.

 

[Zultan]

Well, first allow me to say that these are not the chart you promised, indeed, the only one, which by your own words, would be the only chart that mattered. There are no bond yields in there. Also, the data in the first chart you posted ended more than a year before Syriza came into power, which was the specific point in time you said you had interesting data for! Still, I would say the metrics in these charts are much more meaningful than bond yields, so that's fine by me.

Second, the charts you did post don't really do much to convince me. Technically, you are correct that the second graph shows that the freefall arrested in 2014, but I don't think that, by itself, is very meaningful. If you say that's a recovery starting in 2014, I would say that's a modest fucking recovery, hardly distinguishable from random noise.

Also, note when the freefall in the second graph really gets going: 2 years after the start of the crisis, 2010, which, as shown in your first graph, is when the Troika started imposing austerity on Greece

If we indeed started seeing a recovery in 2014, stopping this recovery in its track with more austerity, which is what the Troika has been arguing for all year, sounds like a bad idea to me.

Firstly, I never said Greece was in recovery. I said it had hit its trough and had stabilized. Secondly, I couldn't find a chart with an accurate 2014 number. In 2014, Greece recorded a deficit of 3.5% compared to GDP, a big improvement over 2013.

http://www.businessinsider.com/afp-greeces-2014-deficit-more-than-double-forecasts-official-2015-4

Things changed in 2015 when Syriza came into power. And now with the crisis of the last week and the upcoming bank run and bank system collapse, all of which was caused by the shortsightedness or their new leader, things are extremely bleak. As things stand, in future charts, all we'll see is this short period of stabilization until things collapse again in 2015.

I'm curious to see how things would have turned out had the election gone differently, but alas....

I feel bad for the Greek people.

 

[Operations]

Well, first allow me to say that these are not the chart you promised, indeed, the only one, which by your own words, would be the only chart that mattered. There are no bond yields in there. Also, the data in the first chart you posted ended more than a year before Syriza came into power, which was the specific point in time you said you had interesting data for! Still, I would say the metrics in these charts are much more meaningful than bond yields, so that's fine by me.

Second, the charts you did post don't really do much to convince me. Technically, you are correct that the second graph shows that the freefall arrested in 2014, but I don't think that, by itself, is very meaningful. If you say that's a recovery starting in 2014, I would say that's a modest fucking recovery, hardly distinguishable from random noise.

Also, note when the freefall in the second graph really gets going: 2 years after the start of the crisis, 2010, which, as shown in your first graph, is when the Troika started imposing austerity on Greece

If we indeed started seeing a recovery in 2014, stopping this recovery in its track with more austerity, which is what the Troika has been arguing for all year, sounds like a bad idea to me.

Well, the budget deficit did get reduced from 15% in 2009 to 3%in 2014. The economy did get back to growth despite the austerity measures

But above all, always keep in mind that the face value of its debt might be 175% of national income, but it faces a lighter interest payment burden than Italy, Spain and Portugal (and one barely heavier than Germany’s).and a maturity of over 15 years. Its impact on the economy is much lower than in Portugal or Italy,

 

[Ether_Snake]

My thread a few months ago where I said Germany would probably leave the EZ before Greece did doesn't sound so crazy anymore. Just a bit more populism needed. The US pushing to leak the IMF document will have helped a little too, especially if the No wins tomorrow. Germany over time will find itself increasingly isolated as long as there is a desire to positively reform the EZ, and will see a continuous rise in national anti-everyone rethoric. The financial views held by many in Germany is on an evangelical level.

 

[okaay]

My thread a few months ago where I said Germany would probably leave the EZ before Greece did doesn't sound so crazy anymore. Just a bit more populism needed. The US pushing to leak the IMF document will have helped a little too, especially if the No wins tomorrow. Germany over time will find itself increasingly isolated as long as there is a desire to positively reform the EZ, and will see a continuous rise in anti-everyone rethoric. The financial views held by many in Germany is on an evangelical level.

No, it still sounds crazy

 

[mnz]

My thread a few months ago where I said Germany would probably leave the EZ before Greece did doesn't sound so crazy anymore. Just a bit more populism needed. The US pushing to leak the IMF document will have helped a little too, especially if the No wins tomorrow. Germany over time will find itself increasingly isolated as long as there is a desire to positively reform the EZ, and will see a continuous rise in national anti-everyone rethoric. The financial views held by many in Germany is on an evangelical level.

It's still crazy and thinking Germany is isolated is, too.

 

[Theonik]

It's still crazy and thinking Germany is isolated is, too.

It is. Well. The rift that is getting formed between southern states and German politics is pretty obvious. The events of the next few months will be very interesting. Italy or Spain are the ones to watch imo. Probably Italy from the financial side, Spain from the political side.