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Greece to hold referendum on austerity measures 5 July

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The Netherlands is Germany's Friends With Benefits. Unsurprising, given that Germany is their largest trade partner (~27% exports, ~14% imports).

Pretty much any inter-Union political position taken by a Netherlander politician mirrors that of Germany. In this case, the Germans probably didn't want to shine any (more) negative light upon themselves.
Dutch, not Netherlander. And yes, our goals align with Germany mostly. And in this case with a lot of other Euro countries that want to make a deal happen.

Lol, unnamed sources.
That's how these things work. We'll need to wait for actual confirmation, but the first things leaking out from anonymous sources is not something strange.

People will get panicked, so chances are they might vote "yes". Sounds like a master plan...
It's not the EU who suddenly called a referendum and creating panic. The Greek government did by pulling this stuff at the last second.
 

Ted Striker

Neo Member
Dutch, not Netherlander. And yes, our goals align with Germany mostly. And in this case with a lot of other Euro countries that want to make a deal happen.


That's how these things work. We'll need to wait for actual confirmation, but the first things leaking out from anonymous sources is not something strange.

Then you don't know how greek media work. Most of the time a greek's journalist unnamed sources is his ass.
 
Then you don't know how greek media work. Most of the time a greek's journalist unnamed sources is his ass.
You're right that I don't. I don't read Greek. Let's just wait for the official word from the government on this. Which I hope is coming soon, because these kind of stories being spread unconfirmed is very damaging.
 

Ether_Snake

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Guardian says banks are closed on Monday. So far, that's that.
 

chadskin

Member
You're right that I don't. I don't read Greek. Let's just wait for the official word from the government on this. Which I hope is coming soon, because these kind of stories being spread unconfirmed is very damaging.

I doubt the government will outright say how long the bank holiday will last, primarily to avoid a mass panic.

However, the Financial Times cited an official that it would last several days: http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=170182169&postcount=247

There is simply no more cash left.
 
It's not the EU who suddenly called a referendum and creating panic. The Greek government did by pulling this stuff at the last second.
It might be orchestrated by both parties for all I know.

There's no other way SYRIZA could ratify another memorandum... sounds extremely convenient if you ask me.
 

Ether_Snake

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It's really telling when, finally, a proposal will be put up to vote for the population, suddenly we are magically further away more than ever from a solution? Did you really think they would never have the population vote on it unless it was their own proposal? This was going to happen one way or another.

But you can see that it's the idea that people will vote Yes that scares the Troika.
 

Nikodemos

Member
It's really telling when, finally, a proposal will be put up to vote for the population, suddenly we are magically further away more than ever from a solution? Did you really think they would never have the population vote on it unless it was their own proposal? This was going to happen one way or another.

But you can see that it's the idea that people will vote Yes that scares the Troika.
In all fairness, I feel SYRIZA/Tsipras/Varoufakis could have at least attempted to manage this better. Their last-minute referendum thing feels to an outside observer like the same crap Papandreou pulled in August '11 (I think it was '11, could've been '12) when he also announced a snap referendum over Troika-imposed plans.
 
It's really telling when, finally, a proposal will be put up to vote for the population, suddenly we are magically further away more than ever from a solution? Did you really think they would never have the population vote on it unless it was their own proposal? This was going to happen one way or another.

But you can see that it's the idea that people will vote Yes that scares the Troika.
No, it was not clear that a referendum would happen. And stop making up this strange point the Troika is scared of a yes vote. You are repeating that over and over again and it is very strange.

In all fairness, I feel SYRIZA/Tsipras/Varoufakis could have at least attempted to manage this better. Their last-minute referendum thing feels to an outside observer like the same crap Papandreou pulled in August '11 (I think it was '11, could've been '12) when he also announced a snap referendum over Troika-imposed plans.
Definitely this. If they just announced a month ago that they would hold a referendum over the deal they work out with the EU and such, it would have been a good thing. Doing this in some last minute panic, when the current program stops before the voting even takes place, is clearly not a good strategy.
 

kess

Member
I doubt the government will outright say how long the bank holiday will last, primarily to avoid a mass panic.

However, the Financial Times cited an official that it would last several days: http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=170182169&postcount=247

There is simply no more cash left.

i wonder what kind of precedence there is for a open ended bank holiday -- I've refrained from commenting on the Greek situation, but what was the plan if things went tits up? A devalued Drachma isn't going to be a panacea if all credit is gone and the tax situation is still broken. Greece can look across the straits and see what ill confidence in the banks and government can wreak on a nation for decades.
 

Osiris

I permanently banned my 6 year old daughter from using the PS4 for mistakenly sending grief reports as it's too hard to watch or talk to her
It's really telling when, finally, a proposal will be put up to vote for the population, suddenly we are magically further away more than ever from a solution? Did you really think they would never have the population vote on it unless it was their own proposal? This was going to happen one way or another.

But you can see that it's the idea that people will vote Yes that scares the Troika.

I'd imagine it's more the careless, irresponsible way that Greece continues to plays games instead of taking the negotiations seriously.

The referendum is a knee-jerk, reactionary delaying tactic and creates more problems than it solves.

It serves only internal political goals, as cover for the inevitable Yes to the troika that will be the seed in Syriza's undoing.
 
A devalued Drachma isn't going to be a panacea if all credit is gone and the tax situation is still broken.
A digital/electronic-only drachma (no cash) is a golden chance to fix tax evasion if you ask me.

It would also be much faster than printing new banknotes/coins...
 
i wonder what kind of precedence there is for a open ended bank holiday -- I've refrained from commenting on the Greek situation, but what was the plan if things went tits up? A devalued Drachma isn't going to be a panacea if all credit is gone and the tax situation is still broken.
As far as we know, there was no plan if the deal failed outside of "bring back the Drachma and we'll see." Which some people seem to think will fix everything in a few years, which it will probably not.
 

Ether_Snake

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Yes = yes to troika measures
No = no to troika measures
So, it's the opposite.

Why? A yes just strengthens their negotiation position.

Yes = a precedent is set, the agreement would be accepted through a referendum as its foundation. The Troika does NOT want negotiations to lead to a popular vote! How difficult has it been to understand this? How isn't is obvious enough already? This whole situation with Greece is not so much about how to save Greece, but how to deal with the next country that will find itself in such a situation. If Greece comes back with a signed proposal after a referendum, a precedent will have been set that the Troika does NOT want to be set at all cost. They do not want to empower the population, they do not want to empower democracy. They know very well that the population is against them, so they want to deal with corrupt and unpopular politicians only that will capitulate, not parties that rely on popular support.
 
Yes = a precedent is set, the agreement would be accepted through a referendum as its foundation. The Troika does NOT want negotiations to lead to a popular vote! How difficult has it been to understand this? How isn't is obvious enough already? This whole situation with Greece is not so much about how to save Greece, but how to deal with the next country that will find itself in such a situation. If Greece comes back with a signed proposal after a referendum, a precedent will have been set that the Troika does NOT want to be set at all cost.
The Troika does not want to implement its own proposed deal with the backing of the Greek people. Got it.

I get your argument that these organisations don't want the people to have any power. But it seems very far fetched and in the conspiracy theory territory at the moment.
 

kess

Member
A digital/electronic-only drachma (no cash) is a golden chance to fix tax evasion if you ask me.

It would also be much faster than printing new banknotes/coins...

It sounds like a good idea, but the question is if Greece has the infrastructure, the will, and the expertise.

The planning stages for these things usually take years, and as far as we know, no one has even started.

There will always be a means of tax evasion as long as corruption exists.
 

Ether_Snake

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The Troika does not want to implement its own proposed deal with the backing of the Greek people. Got it.

I get your argument that these organisations don't want the people to have any power. But it seems very far fetched and in the conspiracy theory territory at the moment.

As soon as the hints of a referendum were announced, the Troika reacted more insultingly than ever, literally pulling the table cloth to themselves and all on it, and trying to fuel panic, because they knew very well that the vote was likely to be a Yes. All of a sudden they have a meeting with all the finance ministers but exclude the Greek finance minister.

The polls pointing in that direction aren't new, they know people would vote yes if the government made the population vote, even if the government said they didn't like the deal. Tsipras will always attack the proposal itself, but not enough to call a vote and turn the opinion around for it to become a No.
 

Osiris

I permanently banned my 6 year old daughter from using the PS4 for mistakenly sending grief reports as it's too hard to watch or talk to her
Yes = a precedent is set, the agreement would be accepted through a referendum as its foundation. The Troika does NOT want negotiations to lead to a popular vote! How difficult has it been to understand this? How isn't is obvious enough already? This whole situation with Greece is not so much about how to save Greece, but how to deal with the next country that will find itself in such a situation. If Greece comes back with a signed proposal after a referendum, a precedent will have been set that the Troika does NOT want to be set at all cost. They do not want to empower the population, they do not want to empower democracy. They know very well that the population is against them, so they want to deal with corrupt and unpopular politicians only that will capitulate, not parties that rely on popular support.

Tin_foil_hat_2.png
 
Yes = a precedent is set, the agreement would be accepted through a referendum as its foundation. The Troika does NOT want negotiations to lead to a popular vote! How difficult has it been to understand this? How isn't is obvious enough already? This whole situation with Greece is not so much about how to save Greece, but how to deal with the next country that will find itself in such a situation. If Greece comes back with a signed proposal after a referendum, a precedent will have been set that the Troika does NOT want to be set at all cost.
Considering that Schaueble himself sugested a referendum a month ago, when it made sense, I don't think your point is valid.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...cks-greek-referendum-to-break-bailout-impasse

They do not want to empower the population, they do not want to empower democracy. They know very well that the population is against them, so they want to deal with corrupt and unpopular politicians only that will capitulate, not parties that rely on popular support.

That's a bit of nonsense. You're acting like the Eurogroup is composed of fascist government ministers who don't have to answer to their electorate. They still have to go back home and explain themselves.

Even the IMF is under pressure from countries like India and Brazil over the greek issue.
 

oti

Banned
A digital/electronic-only drachma (no cash) is a golden chance to fix tax evasion if you ask me.

It would also be much faster than printing new banknotes/coins...

A world without fakelaki is a world I can't imagine right now. Sounds intriguing.

Imagine Varoufaki going like: "Nuh, forget the Drachma. How about Dota Hats?"
 

Nikodemos

Member
Considering that Schaueble himself sugested a referendum a month ago, when it made sense, I don't think your point is valid.
Except a referendum would've made no sense a month ago, since nobody knew anything but vague rumours about the terms of the deal.
 
As soon as the hints of a referendum were announced, the Troika reacted more insultingly than ever, literally pulling the table cloth to themselves and all on it, and trying to fuel panic, because they knew very well that the vote was likely to be a Yes. All of a sudden they have a meeting with all the finance ministers but exclude the Greek finance minister.

The polls pointing in that direction aren't new, they know people would vote yes if the government made the population vote, even if the government said they didn't like the deal. Tsipras will always attack the proposal itself, but not enough to call a vote and turn the opinion around for it to become a No.
A referendum that came as a total surprise, was not announced and takes place after Greece needs the deal done to get money. How are the other countries to react to something like that?

And how are you going to deal with a government that advises its people to do one thing, but then needs to implement measures for something they are against. This whole thing is a mess.

The Troika has made its own share of faults and should have handled the whole situation a lot better from the start, but this conspiracy level thinking is helping no one.

And yes, you have a meeting without the Greek minister, because they just totally surprised you and you know have to consult with the other countries about what they want to do about it. I don't see that as anything strange.
 

Nikodemos

Member
Not sure if serious.
What actual positions, beside "Privatise!", "Cut spending!" have you heard from the EuroGroup until, say, mid-late April? They seem to have run around like headless chickens for a whole month after SYRIZA's victory was announced.
 

petran79

Banned
A world without fakelaki is a world I can't imagine right now. Sounds intriguing.

Imagine Varoufaki going like: "Nuh, forget the Drachma. How about Dota Hats?"

he did work at Valve and he even tested their hologram contact lenses!
Though he knew the alien he saw was not real, his instinct caused him to panic.
That technology needs the approval of FDA for the USA because this is even more serious than VR and could cause problems for people prone to schizophrenia
It affects the optic nerve directly

http://gr.ign.com/features/13805/feature/giannes-barouphakes-e-valve-kai-to-upourgeio-oikon?p=2
 

East Lake

Member
I'd imagine it's more the careless, irresponsible way that Greece continues to plays games instead of taking the negotiations seriously.

The referendum is a knee-jerk, reactionary delaying tactic and creates more problems than it solves.

It serves only internal political goals, as cover for the inevitable Yes to the troika that will be the seed in Syriza's undoing.
What problems does it create?
 

Nikodemos

Member
What problems does it create?
Officially they need to repay a part of their debt to the IMF next week. That is before the referendum. And to get money to repay that, they need the deal with the EU they'll be voting on.

The IMF will probably look the other way for a bit, but you can see why this is far from an ideal situation.

Grandpa and sister called. They're panicking.
(And they asked for money.)
How can you even get money there now. If the banks are closed, can you still use Western Union or something to transfer?

I wonder how the stock market will react tomorrow... On friday I invested a large sum in a several funds.
Probably not that good. Although a Greek default will hardly have that much of an impact on the world economy.
 
Grandpa and sister called. They're panicking.
(And they asked for money.)

Regardless of political ideologies, the people are the true victims. I feel for every greek, but this outcome was on the wall when they elected Syriza and ANEL. Cheap talk leads to this.


Rumor going around on twitter, based on greek TV, is a limit of 60-100 euros/day.
 

Ether_Snake

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For those interested in the issues surrounding the IMF, he's a good article (bizarre url though):

http://www.politico.eu/article/imf-greece-grexit-lagarde-dsk-sex-parties-eurozone/

Things I'm afraid aren't always black and white.

Then there were the forecasting mistakes. Sterne notes for example that the IMF revised down its estimate for Greece’s 2014 gross domestic product by some 22 percent in the space of 18 months. “In U.S. terms, that is the equivalent of revising away the combined output of the whole of California, New York and Florida,” he writes.

The IMF wasn’t the only institution forced to revise its forecast down throughout the long euro slump. But it was the only global body whose own money was at stake. When assessing Greece’s debt sustainability, the IMF famously put in a debt-to-GDP ratio of 120 percent by 2020. It now stands at some 175 percent, with little chance of coming down to that level within the next five years — unless there is a serious debt write-down by eurozone creditors.

Putting those maths to good use.
 

oti

Banned
How can you even get money there now. If the banks are closed, can you still use Western Union or something to transfer?

No idea. We sent my Grandpa money by Western Union though for his Nameday which is tomorrow. He'll try to get his pension tomorrow also.

My sister lives in Athens. Usually she takes 50€ of her account at the start off the week for basic needs. She has no idea what to do right now.
 

Nikodemos

Member
Wonder how much bad greek debt is floating around on the US investment markets

In mathematical terms: fuckloads. Nobody is willing to be "patient zero", a.k.a. the first guy to write-off Greek debt from their balance sheets. Good ol' piggybacking. Just the invisible hand of the market at work
busy showing the middle finger
.
 

East Lake

Member
Officially they need to repay a part of their debt to the IMF next week. That is before the referendum. And to get money to repay that, they need the deal with the EU they'll be voting on.

The IMF will probably look the other way for a bit, but you can see why this is far from an ideal situation.
That doesn't seem to me to be a real sticking point like the doom and gloom Osiris is fantasizing about. Yanis even said it could be paid with the money the ECB owes Greece.

Even Jack Lew thinks debt relief is in order. If only Syriza would get serious like the people at the IMF with their clairvoyant forecasting.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Jack Lew has urged top European finance ministers and the International Monetary Fund to continue working together toward a "sustainable solution" to reforms in Greece and its recovery within the euro zone.

Lew spoke by phone with several top officials on Saturday, including the finance ministers of Germany and France and IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde, according to a readout of the call provided by the Treasury Department on Sunday.

In those calls, he said it was "important for all parties to continue to work to reach a solution, including a discussion of potential debt relief for Greece, in the run up to the July 5th referendum," according to the readout, referring to a planned vote in Greece. (Reporting by Sarah N. Lynch; Editing by Frances Kerry)
http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/06/28/eurozone-greece-treasury-idUSL2N0ZE08P20150628

Wonder how much bad greek debt is floating around on the US investment markets
Not much, he's probably worried about the European economy not american banks.
 

Erebus

Member
No idea. We sent my Grandpa money by Western Union though for his Nameday which is tomorrow. He'll try to get his pension tomorrow also.

My sister lives in Athens. Usually she takes 50€ of her account at the start off the week for basic needs. She has no idea what to do right now.

SInce we're only talking about 50€, I think she will be fine.
 
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