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[Theonik]

Wonder how much bad greek debt is floating around on the US investment markets

Plenty, but the thing Uncle Sam is scared of more is the fallout in Europe and possible rifts in European unity. The scenario of Greece leaving the EMU, staying in the EU and deciding to begin trading with Russia again is also pretty bad for the US. (it basically re-opens the European markets to Russia) Mind that isn't necessarily a likely scenario.

 

[oti]

SInce we're only talking about 50€, I think she will be fine.

Yeah, she should be OK.

 

[nature boy]

Putting those maths to good use.

Two wrongs doesn't make one right.


Before people speculate on the US, here's a breakdown:

From http://money.cnn.com/2015/01/28/investing/greek-debt-who-has-most-to-lose/

 

[Piecake]

It has far more to do with Russia than the US markets.

A Greek Default is going to badly hurt Russia? That is rather interesting since Greece was never shy about leaving the EU and defaulting if the agreement was poor for them, and I do remember a bunch of scare journalism coming from somewhere about how Greece and Russia becoming closer.

 

[chadskin]

HelenaSmithGDN: #Greek fin min has announced that banks will stay closed until July 7, not 6th, and capital controls poss limited to 60 euro per day
https://twitter.com/helenasmithgdn/status/615228062385479680

StefanLeifert: EU sources: Brussels is working on a bridge for Tsipras before referendum takes place. #Greece
https://twitter.com/stefanleifert/status/615229000382812160

 

[Ether_Snake]

Two wrongs doesn't make one right.


Before people speculate on the US, here's a breakdown:

From http://money.cnn.com/2015/01/28/investing/greek-debt-who-has-most-to-lose/

Strange how Italy and Spain represent such huge parts of the bailouts, you'd almost think it was to make sure they had a stake in telling Greece to accept terms that they eventually might have to accept too if their turns come.

A Greek Default is going to badly hurt Russia? That is rather interesting since Greece was never shy about leaving the EU and defaulting if the agreement was poor for them, and I do remember a bunch of scare journalism coming from somewhere about how Greece and Russia becoming closer.

No I said the US is more worried about Greece leaving the EU and increasing ties with Russia, than the impact on its banks.

 

[Theonik]

Two wrongs doesn't make one right.


Before people speculate on the US, here's a breakdown:

http://i2.cdn.turner.com/money/dam/assets/150127131739-greek-debt-chart-780x439.jpg

From http://money.cnn.com/2015/01/28/inve...-most-to-lose/

In terms of money, US is pretty uninvolved right now after the first bailouts. But this has from the very first bailout been a political matter.

 

[Nikodemos]

Strange how Italy and Spain represent such huge parts of the bailouts, you'd almost think it was to make sure they had a stake in telling Greece to accept terms that they eventually might have to accept too.

Italy had a huge stake in Greece due to Unicredit holding a metric fuckton of Greek bonds (Intesa did too, IIRC).

Dunno about Spain, but I suspect it was a similar situation.

 

[LJ11]

Wonder how much bad greek debt is floating around on the US investment markets

Not much. Most of the debt was taken off the banks hands. Below are a couple of graphs. ECB/EU cleaned that shit up, give us your garbage and we take care of you. That's not to say US investors haven't made bets. John Paulson owns 10% of a water company that he thought was going to be spun off and privatized. Not crying for Mr Paulson, he made a killing during the last Greek bailout, he was betting on shit going his way again.

 

[luso]

Greek debt crisis: Banks to stay shut, capital controls imposed

Edit: already posted. Different link though (BBC).

 

[nature boy]

Strange how Italy and Spain represent such huge parts of the bailouts, you'd almost think it was to make sure they had a stake in telling Greece to accept terms that they eventually might have to accept too if their turns come.

Their involvement is based on their GDP.

 

[Coriolanus]

Which again reminds us that the original greek bailout was also a bailout for Italian, French, Spanish and yes, German banks.

Either way, seems Grexit will finally happen. Either that or someone will fall on his sword and authorize the largest haircut the EU has ever seen. Probably the former.

Here's hoping this mess will finally enter a new phase.

 

[Ted Striker]

HelenaSmithGDN: #Greek fin min has announced that banks will stay closed until July 7, not 6th, and capital controls poss limited to 60 euro per day
https://twitter.com/helenasmithgdn/status/615228062385479680

StefanLeifert: EU sources: Brussels is working on a bridge for Tsipras before referendum takes place. #Greece
https://twitter.com/stefanleifert/status/615229000382812160

Greek finance minister hasn't announced anything like that, journalists having their time spinning crap.

 

[ClosingADoor]

Strange how Italy and Spain represent such huge parts of the bailouts, you'd almost think it was to make sure they had a stake in telling Greece to accept terms that they eventually might have to accept too if their turns come.

They are two of the largest countries in the Euro, so of course they contribute more to the fund. It's almost as if this is based on GDP instead of some voluntary contribution.

 

[luso]

Which again reminds us that the original greek bailout was also a bailout for Italian, French, Spanish and yes, German banks.

Either way, seems Grexit will finally happen. Either that or someone will fall on his sword and authorize the largest haircut the EU has ever seen. Probably the former.

Here's hoping this mess will finally enter a new phase.

Grexit could be done earlier and in "controllable" way if this new Greek government worked on it earlier and not as a "hidden" card at last play, with this referendum. Weren't they elected to have the power to decide that? I would call them cowards.

Haircut? Wasn't there one of 100 billion some time ago?

 

[Ether_Snake]

They are two of the largest countries in the Euro, so of course they contribute more to the fund. It's almost as if this is based on GDP instead of some voluntary contribution.

Debt to GDP would make more sense to me.

 

[jorma]

Is there a way that something doesn't get the It's a part of the Troika conspiracy treatment?

I'd be more inclined to believe their concern about the detrimental effects of the greek proposal to the greek economy if they didn't already implement austerity measures that is still shrinking their economy every year, and if their counter-proposal didn't contain a lot of juicy publicly owned propertys to be sold off to private interests.

 

[PdotMichael]

I'd be more inclined to believe their concern about the detrimental effects of the greek proposal to the greek economy if they didn't already implement austerity measures that is still shrinking their economy every year, and if their counter-proposal didn't contain a lot of juicy publicly owned propertys to be sold off to private interests.

Well, you also believe the Troika/EU didn't want to tax the riches.

 

[Ether_Snake]

Well, you also believe the Troika/EU didn't want to tax the riches.

The IMF said they don't believe the Greek government can get the taxes, so they said cut spending instead (pensions, privatize, etc.).

 

[ElTorro]

Here we go.

 

[Ted Striker]

Here we go.

Wonder what's gonna happen if Greece exits Euro.

 

[oti]

Here we go.

 

[Stinkles]

Funny thing is that a few Greek shipping tycoons could salvage the Greek economy from their own personal bank accounts. Bank accounts already fattened by the most corrupt oligarchical aspect of their economy.


Just take half their assets and sink them back into the country. Greece is an incredibly small and potentially wealthy nation. Just 11 million people, scattered across a large and beautiful and culturally important land. It's a strategically wonderful location - a crossroads between east, west, north and south.

Its impact on the world is unmeasurably important. It needs a reset. And that reset should come from within. Forgive some of the debt, sure, and we know austerity is counterproductive - but where are the proud Greeks? Almost all of them have moved their assets offshore, to Switzerland and beyond, exacerbating the problem.

Greece needs an economical enema, but they could very easily achieve something incredible. Reset, rebuild confidence and raise a generation of young who don't think paying taxes is for suckers. Raise a generation of people who think investing in a magnificent cultural heritage and land is something to be proud of.

There's no reason this country should threaten the stability of the entire Eurozone. But change needs to happen at home as well as in Brussels.

 

[jorma]

Well, you also believe the Troika/EU didn't want to tax the riches.

They didn't want to accept the greek proposal that contained a 29% corporate tax + a one off tax on the most profitable corporations, instead suggesting a 28% corporate tax + a fuckton of privatisations and public sector cuts.

They're gonna have a hard time convincing anyone that it's not all about the privatisations. Because this time is different.

 

[AmFreak]

Debt to GDP would make more sense to me.

Yeah, i'm also voting for Luxembourg paying the €56B instead of germany.

 

[Coriolanus]

Grexit could be done earlier and in "controllable" way if this new Greek government worked on it earlier and not as a "hidden" card at last play, with this referendum. Weren't they elected to have the power to decide that? I would call them cowards.

Haircut? Wasn't there one of 100 billion some time ago?

No, and a grexit could've never been done in a controllable manner because there are no rules whatsoever to define how a member state could leave the EU.

Don't think they give a flying fuck if you consider them cowards.

 

[Ether_Snake]

Yeah, i'm also voting for Luxembourg paying the €56B instead of germany.

Of course it would be proportional. If your debt is so big, you don't go and make a big loan to another country in trouble, because there's always the risk of that money not coming back.

This union is so poorly devised it's bound to fail. This is just the first bump and it can't even handle it.

 

[~Kinggi~]

I dont know much about this situation, so are there clear repercussions to whats happening right now?

 

[Blablurn]

As a half Greek living in Germany who wants to move to Asia this year, this is all very concerning and confusing

 

[petran79]

Rumor going around on twitter, based on greek TV, is a limit of 60-100 euros/day.

Greek news site said it is official from Finance Ministry sources that limit will be 60 Euro and banks will be closed till next Monday at least.

Problem is that this Monday even ATM machines will not work due to technical reasons. ATM access will be available from Tuesday

 

[chadskin]

ericbeebo: RTRS - GREEK FINANCIAL STABILITY COUNCIL RECOMMENDED KEEPING BANKS CLOSED FOR NEXT SIX WORKING DAYS- SOURCE

ericbeebo: RTRS - GREEK FINANCIAL STABILITY COUNCIL RECOMMENDED DAILY CASH WITHDRAWAL LIMIT OF 60 EUROS AS OF TUESDAY, ATMS CLOSED MONDAY- SOURCE

https://twitter.com/ericbeebo/ (Reuters)

 

[Ted Striker]

Greek news site said it is official from Finance Ministry sources that limit will be 60 Euro and banks will be closed till next Monday at least.

Problem is that this Monday even ATM machines will not work due to technical reasons. ATM access will be available from Tuesday

It's not official, just rumors.

 

[Shiggy]

Do these limits also apply if a Greek tries to get money from an ATM in another country?

 

[PdotMichael]

They didn't want to accept the greek proposal that contained a 29% corporate tax + a one off tax on the most profitable corporations, instead suggesting a 28% corporate tax + a fuckton of privatisations and public sector cuts.

They're gonna have a hard time convincing anyone that it's not all about the privatisations. Because this time is different.

So a single isolated point that they want to increase the corporate tax "just" to 28% is proof that hey don't want to tax the riches in Greece?

The logic is more than flawed.

 

[Embearded]

Still nothing official guys. A couple of trustworthy sites say that the news come from journalists and not from the minister.

 

[Ether_Snake]

So a single isolated point that they want to increase the corporate tax "just" to 28% is proof that hey don't want to tax the riches in Greece?

The logic is more than flawed.

No, they found an excuse to say 29% was too much, only to add unacceptable illogical demands on top that would hurt Greece in the end. Basically "yes ok we agree, 28% instead of 29%, and scrap the stuff that people need and privatize instead kthnxbye".

The IMF just wants its cash. With China about to setup an IMF equivalent, and countries unhappy with IMF involvement in the Greek bailout (as stated in the article posted earlier), the IMF is basically just trying to get its money back to save face rather than thinking about long term sustainable growth in Greece. No wonder even the IMF wants debt relief, otherwise they'll lose their stake. If there is debt relief from all involved, at least they might just lose less. But privatization is a quick payment solution for them, nevermind the consequences to Greece.

 

[Valkyria]

And the US enters the game:

http://www.europapress.es/internacional/noticia-eeuu-pide-quita-deuda-griega-20150628210030.html

Sorry only I could no found in English. Basically Jack Lew spoke this weekend with the IMF, German economic minister and French economic minister pushing for a cutting off of the debt.

One more time the EU proves that we are not an international power but a bunch of scared old men.

 

[Nikodemos]

And the US enters the game:

http://www.europapress.es/internacional/noticia-eeuu-pide-quita-deuda-griega-20150628210030.html

Sorry only I could no found in English. Basically Jack Lew spoke this weekend with the IMF, German economic minister and French economic minister pushing for a cutting off of the debt.

One more time the EU proves that we are not an international power but a bunch of scared old men.

More like the EU proves it's a bunch of parochialist provincial hicks and need to be set straight (once more) by the new kid on the block.

 

[petran79]

It's not official, just rumors.

probably they dont dare to announce that yet and will go on day by day basis

Another problem is the fuel stations. Out of panic people fueled their cars draining the deposits and it was not possible to fill the gas stations immediately.

People need to be careful

 

[Negotiator]

Time for the drachmacoin cryptocurrency.

Well, I wasn't talking about cryptocurrencies.

I'm talking about a fiat currency in electronic form only.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/...-step-closer-to-being-a-cashless-country.html

Then again, Greeks are obsessed with cash (especially elderly people and even some younger -technophobic- ones)... there are many outlets (i.e. Goody's) that don't even have POS machines.

That's because the Greek banking elite imposes unnecessarily high transaction fees for credit/debit cards (they can go up to 3-5%).

If Greece also left the EU, they could also abolish the VAT and impose a similar tax on electronic transactions, which would be a lot less than 23% (let's say around 5-10%). That way you also tax purchases from ebay and other sources.

We have the technological means to fix tax evasion once and for all... the problem is how do you change people's mentality. It's a cultural issue.

As long as there is cash, there will always be tax evasion. It's the same thing with video games: as long as there are retail games, there will always be a second-hand market and developers will lose money. So yeah, the only solution to fight used sales is to make it digital-only. I'm not an Xbone DRM fanboy, I'm just trying to explain my thought process with an analogy.

A world without fakelaki is a world I can't imagine right now. Sounds intriguing.

Imagine Varoufaki going like: "Nuh, forget the Drachma. How about Dota Hats?"

"Fakelaki" wouldn't be an issue if you could tax it. See my proposal above.

 

[jorma]

So a single isolated point that they want to increase the corporate tax "just" to 28% is proof that hey don't want to tax the riches in Greece?

The logic is more than flawed.

The point of contention is obviously privatisation. I thought i was pretty clear on that. I'm not sure what part you're getting stuck on.

The proposals were ceirtanly not different enough to be unbridgeable. When the greek proposal turned up everyone was positive, including representatives of the ECB and the EU commission. Everyone thought this was going to work out in the end.

Except that the greek proposal didn't have any privatisation schemes, so the IMF had to turn it down and present a proposal that did. Oh wait i'm sorry. This time it isn't about privatisation; the greek proposal had a 29% corporate tax rate which would completely destroy the greek economy, so the IMF had to turn it down and present a proposal with a 28% corporate tax rate.

 

[LJ11]

Fuel will be rationed.

 

[ElTorro]

Don't think they give a flying fuck if you consider them cowards.

I am leaning towards considering all these moves by Tsipras' government to be purely tactical ones to stay in power by constructing this legend that the Eurozone has stabbed Greece in the back. It's either that or they are completely incompetent.

We must not forget that there isn't even a proposal on the table over which the Greek people could decide. The document we have is just a list of prior actions that the Institutions required before granting the bailout of the 2nd program. This list was not a complete reform program. And on top of that, it is not being offered anymore anyway. The 2nd program will expire on Tuesday, rendering all discussions about it moot.

Tsipras knows all of this, and he is telling none of this to his people. This referendum is just pointless. Nobody even knows what they are voting for or against. At most, the referendum can only be about a very general and very vague permission to government to move away from pre-election premisses, with no specificity what that really means. Its about keeping the current government in power, not about any substantial issues or solutions.

 

[Negotiator]

And since we're talking about tax evasion, it seems to be a huge problem in the entire EU:

http://uk.reuters.com/article/2013/04/12/us-eu-tax-vanrompuy-idUSBRE93B0KC20130412
http://ec.europa.eu/taxation_customs/taxation/tax_fraud_evasion/a_huge_problem/index_en.htm
http://money.cnn.com/2013/05/21/news/economy/europe-taxes/

Then again, I'm pretty sure that neoliberals don't mind using tax tricks, so why would they want to fix it?

 

[funkypie]

Greece potentially leaving is a good thing, the EU is nice idea in theory but in reality, unless you have similar economies, it is a disaster.

 

[nature boy]

So 1 week to prepare a referendum, capital controls and fuel rationed.

Well worth it.

 

[Osiris]

I am leaning towards considering all these moves by Tsipras' government to be purely tactical ones to stay in power by constructing this legend that the Eurozone has stabbed Greece in the back. It's either that or they are completely incompetent.

We must not forget that there isn't even a proposal on the table over which the Greek people could decide. The document we have is just a list of prior actions that the Institutions required before granting the bailout of the 2nd program. This list was not a complete reform program. And on top of that, it is not being offered anymore anyway. The 2nd program will expire on Tuesday, rendering all discussions about it moot.

Tsipras knows all of this, and he is telling none of this to his people. This referendum is just pointless. Nobody even knows what they are voting for or against. At most, the referendum can only be about a very general and very vague permission to government to move away from pre-election premisses, with no specificity what that really means. Its about keeping the current government in power, not about any substantial issues or solutions.

Bingo, spot on IMO.

It's just a CYA for a party that has realized it cannot, nor could it ever, deliver on it's election promises as those promises relied on making demands of parties that Greece had little to no leverage over.

 

[Ether_Snake]

I am leaning towards considering all these moves by Tsipras' government to be purely tactical ones to stay in power by constructing this legend that the Eurozone has stabbed Greece in the back. It's either that or they are completely incompetent.

We must not forget that there isn't even a proposal on the table over which the Greek people could decide. The document we have is just a list of prior actions that the Institutions required before granting the bailout of the 2nd program. This list was not a complete reform program. And on top of that, it is not being offered anymore anyway. The 2nd program will expire on Tuesday, rendering all discussions about it moot.

Tsipras knows all of this, and he is telling none of this to his people. This referendum is just pointless. Nobody even knows what they are voting for or against. At most, the referendum can only be about a very general and very vague permission to government to move away from pre-election premisses, with no specificity what that really means. Its about keeping the current government in power, not about any substantial issues or solutions.

Source? Varoufakis said he was told it was, and that it was a "take it or leave it" proposal. They can vote on it if they want, regardless of what the Troika says. Then they can come back with a signed proposal, the proposal they were handed. What the Troika decides to do at that point is up to them, but they would be really stupid to shut the door, and really they couldn't. You would finally have an agreement, and all they could say is "Well, we didn't really mean it! We're changing it again!".

 

[Negotiator]

Greece potentially leaving is a good thing, the EU is nice idea in theory but in reality, unless you have similar economies, it is a disaster.

Greece was accepted for geopolitical reasons, not because it has a "strong" economy.

Uncle Sam knows that geopolitics is more important than economy...

 

[ElTorro]

Source?

It's in the title of the document itself, and it was the tenor of all finance ministers in the Interviews after the last summit.

/edit:

(The entire document is just that 'Table 1', they used some standard Word template. There is nothing else in it.)