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[Super Nothing]

Blingtron in Mech Mage with Water Ellies and Chuggas is actually pretty decent.

I'll give it a shot when I get home. Blingtron seems fun, and I actually wanted the card to play around with. But I've really been wanting Malganis, so I was disappointed to see the orange glow twice and both times were cards that aren't considered competitive. I only need one more GvG rare (fucking Siege Engine), so once I get that, I'll stop buying GvG packs and craft Malganis and start saving up for the next expansion.

 

[f0lken]

Brawl pack, 2000 dust right here:

Considering what to craft now.

Oh man, Galowe is an ok to good legendary, but IMO is the best golden card in the game, my brother has it and hasn't dust it yet because he just love that every robot he gets from it is shiny golden too.

 

[Duster]

I've changed my mind about this weeks brawl, making an against the odds come back with Rag is great fun and I'm enjoying playing with all the new cards/the ones I never normally get to use.

 

[schadenfood]

Can't find a clear answer anywhere--does the number of Tavern Brawl wins matter?

I thought the free pack was just sort of celebratory (a la the three free packs we got at the GvG release).

 

[FieryBalrog]

Can't find a clear answer anywhere--does the number of Tavern Brawl wins matter?

I thought the free pack was just sort of celebratory (a la the three free packs we got at the GvG release).

Doesn't seem like it.

 

[gutshot]

I swear there is something in the game that makes it so if you already have one epic card you are more likely to open up a second. I consistently get double epics despite having zero copies of tons of others. And it seems that every time I open an epic I don't have, I'll open another copy of that epic within the next 10 or so packs. I've even gotten two of the same epic in packs more than once. What is going on here?

 

[ZZMitch]

Brawl pack, 2000 dust right here:

Considering what to craft now.

Aww man you dusted Golden Gazlowe? I don't think there is a legendary in the game I would want to have more as a golden card than Gazlowe haha

 

[Heropon]

I swear there is something in the game that makes it so if you already have one epic card you are more likely to open up a second. I consistently get double epics despite having zero copies of tons of others. And it seems that every time I open an epic I don't have, I'll open another copy of that epic within the next 10 or so packs. I've even gotten two of the same epic in packs more than once. What is going on here?

That happened to me with Brawl, Lay on Hands and Big Game Hunter but I think it's just coincidence. It'd have been nice to get another Shield Slam or Molten Giant, though.

Edit: Now that I think about it, my double epics are usually cards than you only need one copy of them in a deck, hmph...

 

[Kenaras]

I swear there is something in the game that makes it so if you already have one epic card you are more likely to open up a second. I consistently get double epics despite having zero copies of tons of others. And it seems that every time I open an epic I don't have, I'll open another copy of that epic within the next 10 or so packs. I've even gotten two of the same epic in packs more than once. What is going on here?

What's going on is humans are incredibly good at recognizing patterns, but incredibly bad at recognizing randomness. There's been decades of psychological studies showing this. It's just coincidence. (Just like the fact that of the nine Classic Legendaries I've opened so far, five of them have been Al'Akir is just coincidence.)

 

[gutshot]

Just went through and counted my epics. Here is what I got:

2 copies of an epic - 15
1 copy of an epic - 10
0 copies of an epic card - 36

As you can see, I'm still missing 72 epics. And yet my last four epics have all been ones I already had one of. That has to be highly statistically improbable, right?

 

[Opiate]

Just went through and counted my epics. Here is what I got:

2 copies of an epic - 15
1 copy of an epic - 10
0 copies of an epic card - 36

As you can see, I'm still missing 72 epics. And yet my last four epics have all been ones I already had one of. That has to be highly statistically improbable, right?

I believe you are missing 82 epics. 36 x 2 + 10.

You have 40/122 epics (if your math is right), including 2 copies of each card. This means you have a 40/122 ^ 3 of drawing an epic you own, or ~3.5% chance of this occurring three times in a row. That is definitely unlucky, but not "impossible!" unlucky.

We would also have to consider how many times you've gotten lucky but sort of passed it off because it's what you wanted to happen. I have no way to calculate those odds, of course, but I bet it's happened because everyone does this.

 

[Gotchaye]

Just went through and counted my epics. Here is what I got:

2 copies of an epic - 15
1 copy of an epic - 10
0 copies of an epic card - 36

As you can see, I'm still missing 72 epics. And yet my last four epics have all been ones I already had one of. That has to be highly statistically improbable, right?

You have a couple more two-copies than you should and a couple fewer one-copies, but you have just about as many zero-copies as you'd expect. I get that for 63 types of epics from packs, and supposing they're all in a big pool so you're equally likely to get each every time you get a card, any set of 40 epics expects about 33 zero-copies, 21 one-copies, and 8 two-copies (or more).

 

[ViviOggi]

the lifecoach salz is real

 

[bigkrev]

Also, every time I went into the brawl screen last night, it would switch to display my dust instead of my gold

Hiccup/Glitch, or possible sign that maybe future brawls might cost dust?

 

[Kenaras]

I believe you are missing 82 epics. 36 x 2 + 10.

You have 40/122 epics (if your math is right), including 2 copies of each card. This means you have a 40/122 ^ 3 of drawing an epic you own, or ~3.5% chance of this occurring three times in a row. That is definitely unlucky, but not "impossible!" unlucky.

We would also have to consider how many times you've gotten lucky but sort of passed it off because it's what you wanted to happen. I have no way to calculate those odds, of course, but I bet it's happened because everyone does this.

While the substance is true, the math isn't quite right. If you want to look at the odds of drawing an epic he already owns, you have to ignore duplicates. In that case he owns 25 out of 61 epics, so ((25/61)^3) ~6.9% chance of this occurring. (Thought experiment to show why this is: if he owned one copy of every epic, his odds of drawing a duplicate should be 100%. Your math would put his odds at 50%.)

Sometimes people like to notice when unlucky things happen, and then calculate the odds of that happening. While this can be a fun way to see just how unlucky you were, it's important to remember that it's also completely meaningless. Over the course of a day, a huge number of random events happen. Statistically speaking, some of those events are guaranteed to be incredibly unlikely.

Also, every time I went into the brawl screen last night, it would switch to display my dust instead of my gold

Hiccup/Glitch, or possible sign that maybe future brawls might cost dust?

Assuming this is intentional, I'd guess that some brawls might require certain cards to play. Since we know some brawls will require you to construct decks using your own collection, maybe you'll be able to craft required cards directly from the Tavern Brawl interface.

 

[Opiate]

While the substance is true, the math isn't quite right. If you want to look at the odds of drawing an epic he already owns, you have to ignore duplicates. In that case he owns 25 out of 61 epics, so ((25/61)^3) ~6.9% chance of this occurring. (Thought experiment to show why this is: if he owned one copy of every epic, his odds of drawing a duplicate should be 100%. Your math would put his odds at 50%.)

Sometimes people like to notice when unlucky things happen, and then calculate the odds of that happening. While this can be a fun way to see just how unlucky you were, it's important to remember that it's also completely meaningless. Over the course of a day, a huge number of random events happen. Statistically speaking, some of those events are guaranteed to be incredibly unlikely.

Are we only looking for epics he owns none of? I was looking for "epics he can use," which includes epics he has 1 of.

 

[Kenaras]

Are we only looking for epics he owns none of?

Essentially, yes. His complaint wasn't that he was drawing a third copy of an epic and needed to disenchant it, but that he was drawing a second copy of the epic.

 

[Opiate]

Essentially, yes. His complaint wasn't that he was drawing a third copy of an epic and needed to disenchant it, but that he was drawing a second copy of the epic.

I see, then I misunderstood the premise of the discussion.

 

[embalm]

Can't find a clear answer anywhere--does the number of Tavern Brawl wins matter?

I thought the free pack was just sort of celebratory (a la the three free packs we got at the GvG release).

The wins probably don't matter. It's just a "for fun" mode.

I think Brawls will have a variety of rewards and goals in the future. The way the Reward was shown makes me think they can set it to just about anything. I wouldn't be surprised if there is a "Win 10 games get a pack" reward sometime in the future.

 

[cHinzo]

Arena update! 11-2 atm, one more game to go sadly. I just played the same Paladin twice in a row lol. What are the odds. He won the first one and I won the second game. It were really nice games. I would have won if I drawed my Consecrate though in the first game, because he flooded the board with 2 HP minions at the end, but after I mulligan'd my one and only Consecrate away, I think it landed on the bottom of the deck, never to be seen again. ;___;

Got the Consecrate during the mulligan of the second game and kept it luckily. It brought me the win with Ogre Magi + Consecrate.

 

[Danj]

I don't know how to feel about this pack:

(it's not the one I got for my first Brawl victory, though that one was crap too)

Other than a pack for your first win, is there anything else you can get from Tavern Brawl?

EDIT: I see someone just answered this, so I guess once I have one win there's no real point in playing it until the next one?

 

[Shiver]

ok, what's going on with the shop? just getting the text "Opening the necropolis for the first time".

 

[poppedcollar69]

had do do a mage deck for a daily

 

[ViviOggi]

ok, what's going on with the shop? just getting the text "Opening the necropolis for the first time".

NAXX OUT?

 

[Cipherr]

Underwhelmed by tavern brawl. Not what I was hoping it would be.

In fact, it is kind of shit.

Worst content they have added so far.

Apparently stats are 75-25 wins for nef.

Not surprising. The game mode has potential, but holy SHIT was this a terrible choice for week 1.

 

[Dahbomb]

Apparently stats are 75-25 wins for nef.

Where are the stats shown?

I managed to draw with a Nef today as Rag. He had that 7/7 card out that deals damage if you use a card. Nef was at 5 health. I had Lava Burst and we both died.

 

[mxgt]

This is the most armour i've ever had as a non-warrior

Spoiler

I still lost

 

[FieryBalrog]

95% of the ladder is Hunters, Warlocks, Mage, and Warrior.

At least for me personally @ Rank 7-8.

Very occasionally will run into a Paladin or Rogue.

 

[FieryBalrog]

Apparently stats are 75-25 wins for nef.

These stats are not that meaningful. Lot of people auto-concede as Rag and Rag is unquestionably harder to play.

No question that Nef is favored, but the stats are still padded.

 

[Dahbomb]

Nef and Rag are both equally hard to play just in different ways.

Knowing when to use your hero power and when to play minions on board... when to board control and when to go face is key to playing Nef playing well. Also holding on to your cards to counter Rag's hero power if he does make it that far. Not to mention making a ton of on the spot combination plays with the random spells you get. Because of that you could make the argument that Nef actually has a higher skill cap than Rag.

With Rag you only play one way... survive the onslaught and try to kill whatever he plays on board. You know what your deck is so you play with it. With Nef you don't know what you will get so you need to make plays on the spot.

Rag is simply "harder" to play because he's harder to win as he's just way worse than Nef. I still see many people make terrible plays with Nef because at times they are overwhelmed with the cards in hand and their options. On the flipside, I see Rag players make less mistakes yet still get shut out by worse Nef players.

 

[FieryBalrog]

Talking about the skill floor actually not the skill ceiling.

 

[Dahbomb]

Talking about the skill floor actually not the skill ceiling.

Ah I see.

 

[Acidote]

Aww man you dusted Golden Gazlowe? I don't think there is a legendary in the game I would want to have more as a golden card than Gazlowe haha

Not yet, but I will once I decide what to craft. I will have dust for two legendaries. Probably Ragnaros and Sylvanas.

 

[daemissary]

ok, what's going on with the shop? just getting the text "Opening the necropolis for the first time".

I'm having issues too...I won two arena matches and now my record is showing 0-0. Anyone else having problems?

 

[Willectro]

Nef starting with 1 less mana would really help balance things IMO. His 5 and 6 drops are crazy good.

 

[Super Nothing]

Nef starting with 1 less mana would really help balance things IMO. His 5 and 6 drops are crazy good.

Even at 4 mana he can drop a 7/7. But it would make it less likely that he has a turn one play that spirals out of control.

 

[Papercuts]

Nef starting with 1 less mana would really help balance things IMO. His 5 and 6 drops are crazy good.

Yeah I think starting him there would actually be more impactful. Being able to coin Vaelastrasz or Razorgore, or even see them on turn 2 after already dropping a 7/7 or something can already end a match.

I also think it would've been cool if it wasn't preset rag and nef, as seeing rag v rag or nef v nef would be cool and require a different understanding of the deck.

 

[Dahbomb]

Yeah Nef starting with 1 less mana would make this more balanced for sure.


But really though... I want to play Nef vs Nef. Now that match would be fucking sick! I mean if you are going to go overboard with the RNG then go all the way...

 

[johnsmith]

"Frodan's is my mom, and Reynad is like my mom's boyfriend" - Eloise 2015

 

[Triz]

Yesterday got Cairne in my free brawl pack, today my 3-3 arena pack had Iron Juggernaut. Think its time to buy some packs.

 

[JesseZao]

Yesterday got Cairne in my free brawl pack, today my 3-3 arena pack had Iron Juggernaut. Think its time to buy some packs.

Good ol' Gambler's Fallacy

 

[Pooya]

remove shadowflame from Nef deck, it would be balanced enough.

 

[gutshot]

Should I do it, GAF?

 

[velvet_nitemare]

Need help GAF.

My challenge for the day is to spectate a friend winning a game, but i only have one friend on B.Net. Anyone about to hop on and willing to help? Thanks in advance.

 

[Super Nothing]

Should I do it, GAF?

We give the exact same advice to everyone that asks which legendary to craft next: Boom then Sylvanas if you don't already have them. Seems a pretty safe choice.

 

[MetroidPrimeRib]

I'm playing Arena. This hunter has played -

Argent Squire
Glavezooka
Animal Companion (Huffer)
Webspinner, he got The Beast
Knife Juggler
Shade of Naxx
Piloted Shredder
Kill Command
And last but not least, Savannah Highmane

Hey Blizzard. Fuck you.

 

[TetraxShards]

Should I do it, GAF?

YES.

 

[Dahbomb]

Should I do it, GAF?

Do you have Dr Balanced?

If so then yes.

If not then spend dust on Dr Balanced immediately.

 

[TheChewyWaffles]

Wait and craft the gold version

 

[Opiate]

Just won a game with my steal priest in such satisfying fashion.

It was turn 7, and I was clearly and notably behind; he had a sylvanas on board, and I had nothing at all. He put ancestral spirit (read: resummons minion after it dies) on his sylvanas and took me down to 20. I healed, passed, and prayed.

He then dropped Sneed's, and I knew I had him. He took me to 15 with his sylvanas. On my turn, I shrinkmeistered sylvanas, and then shadowmadnessed her, running her in to the enemy sneeds. It killed sylvanas, stole sneeds, then resummoned sylvanas on my side of the board.

A turn that started with me at 15 with nothing and him having total board control ended with me having both his legendary creatures, a shrinkmeister, 17 health, and his board totally wiped.