I feel they're a little misguided, yes. Eurogamer has
a roundup of some analysts' thoughts about the PS4 reveal, and they're mostly positive, but the reason I mention this is a quote from one of them:
Doug Creutz said:
"I also think," added Creutz, "that by year two there needs to be an offering in the $200 range with the difference subsidised by a two-year online service plan a la iPhone pricing. This is probably the only way to break out of the core gamer demographic."
To which Eurogamer's staffer added:
Robert Purchese said:
Why wait two years? Expensive phone handsets sell by the truckload using this business model. Why not have something similar in place for PS4 and next Xbox launch?
Why indeed. The thing is, to make your platform attractive to wider audiences in order to take full advantage of the subscription approach, you also need to have broader entertainment content available (all the better if it's exclusive), more casual experiences, and preferably a unique cool selling point to capture their imagination. I'd say that at this point PS4 definitely lacks the latter (we'll see if they're saving something huge for E3, but going by what we already know, I'm finding that unlikely), and as for the rest, Sony seems to be laser-focused on the core gamer for the time being, not the wider masses. That used to be a fine strategy in previous generations, since early adopters of these expensive, powerful machines are usually core gamers and tech enthusiasts. But what if Microsoft goes with the subscription model (that they already successfully experimented with) from the very start? They have the ambition to serve both gamers and more casual users alike. Going by the studios they've opened in recent years, they're heavily investing in core games, casual affairs
and more inclusive experiences and
exclusive entertainment content. In other words, they seem to be covering all their bases so I doubt that they'll only be concentrating on gamers when they reveal and then launch Durango. Now, if they combine that with a subscription model from the very start, and it's not hard imagining them going for that, they could quickly amass a large following, creating a huge gap between themselves and their competitors. What was it? "More like Grand Canyon than Silicon Valley"? Sony would find themselves in a really bad situation, playing catch-up again.
But who knows what will happen. Maybe Microsoft opts for a different strategy (although I doubt that), maybe Sony changes their messaging and focus in the following months (also unlikely, but not impossible), and maybe the market decides that it just doesn't care either way. There are still many unknowns, but I do believe that Sony's adherence to the old strategy of "core first, others later" might get them in serious trouble.