January 2015 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes February 10th

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donny2112

Member
ITT, predict for the NPD January 2015 retail period (January 4-31, 2015) for U.S. hardware sales. :)

What is NPD?: NPD is one of the main retail tracking firms in the U.S., and also about the only one who specifically goes into detail on video games sales. This thread is to predict what the NPD hardware sales will be for the most recent month. NPD months are defined here, from jvm.
What do I win?: Bragging rights. We also keep track of predictions over the year and have an annual contest using "points." Still just bragging rights, but Sales-Agers have fun seeing how well we can do with it. See here for details on the point calculations.

Prediction entries must be in and finalized by 8 p.m. EST on Tuesday, February 10th. Format use is required if you want your entry counted.

NPD Coverage: January 4-31, 2015 (4 weeks, December was 5 weeks)
NPD Release: Thursday, February 12th @ 4 p.m. EST (thread posted ~6:30 p.m. EST)

Format:

[3DS]
[PS4]
[WIU]
[XB1]

Good/Bad Formatting
Code: 
Good              Bad
[XB1] 200K       [XB1] 200 thousand
[XB1] 200,000    [XB1] 200.000
[XB1] 200000     [XB1] - 200000


Potential hardware impacting events in January:
Summary
XB1 Holiday $50 price drop ends, so price increase to $400 - Jan. 3 (12 days)
New 3DSXL announced for U.S. release on Feb. 13 - Jan. 15 (17 days)
XB1 price dropped back to $350 - Jan. 16 (16 days)
PS4 TLOU bundle $400 - Jan. 23 (9 days)



COMPREHENSIVE LIST OF USA RETAIL CONSOLE HARDWARE + SOFTWARE RELEASES IN THE JANUARY 2015 NPD REPORTING PERIOD (28 DAYS OF TRACKING, 2015-01-04 THROUGH 2015-01-31)

The following list (and accompanying commentary) was prepared and compiled by Sales-Age GAFfer Aquamarine exclusively for NeoGAF.



N.B. #1:

Please note:

The NPD Group tracks PC retail as well. However, in 2013, PC games only comprised 5% of the total USA video game software market.

So, it's not prudent to include PC retail releases in this list since the vast majority of PC sales occur through digital platforms (which are not directly tracked by NPD).

Unlike PC games, physical retail is still relevant for console and handheld games.



N.B. #2:

Please note:

A "FULL RELEASE" designation means that the game in question was available for sale at ALL of the Top 5 USA retailer networks for video games.
A "LIMITED RELEASE" designation means that ONE or MORE of the Top 5 USA retailer networks decided not to sell the game in question.

The Top 5 retailer networks are relevant because they comprise the good majority of USA video game sales, so a limited release could potentially inform us of lower sell-through.

All of the Top 5 are directly tracked by The NPD Group (i.e. NPD receives raw POS data from them on a regular basis). They are NOT estimated numbers.


These are the Top 5:


1) The GAMESTOP retail network:

- Sales at 4,183 (as of 2014-11-01) total retail stores in the USA
- Sales at Gamestop.com, the 297th most popular website in the USA according to Alexa Analytics


2) The WALMART retail network:

- Sales at 4,517 (as of 2014-12-31) total retail stores in the USA
- Sales at Walmart.com, the 36th most popular website in the USA according to Alexa Analytics

The 4,517 stores comprise of:
- Sales at 3,401 (as of 2014-12-31) Walmart Supercenters in the USA
- Sales at 645 (as of 2014-12-31) Sam's Club stores in the USA
- Sales at 471 (as of 2014-12-31) Walmart Discount Stores in the USA

* The 487 Walmart Neighborhood Markets in the USA are not included because they do not sell video games
* The 40 Small Format stores in the USA (Supermercados Amigo, Walmart Express, Walmart on Campus, Super Ahorros) are not included because they do not sell video games


3) The TARGET retail network:

- Sales at 1,801 (as of 2014-11-01) total retail stores in the USA
- Sales at Target.com, the 48th most popular website in the USA according to Alexa Analytics


4) The BEST BUY retail network:

- Sales at 1,052 (as of 2014-11-01) total retail stores in the USA
- Sales at Bestbuy.com, the 44th most popular website in the USA according to Alexa Analytics

The 1,052 stores comprise of:
- Sales at 1,052 (as of 2014-11-01) Best Buy stores in the USA

* The 389 Best Buy Mobile Stand-Alone stores in the USA are not included because they do not sell video games
* The 29 Pacific Sales stores in the USA are not included because they do not sell video games
* The 3 Magnolia Audio Video stores in the USA are not included because they do not sell video games



5) The AMAZON retail network:

- Sales at Amazon.com, the 4th most popular website in the USA according to Alexa Analytics



N.B. #3:

Retailer-exclusive hardware or software bundles are not tracked by NPD and are not included in this list. Only non-exclusive manufacturer bundles are tracked.

And, the accompanying pictures may not comprehensively represent every limited edition release or bundle release.



SONY PLAYSTATION 4 RETAIL RELEASES

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CAEoQQE.jpg
Zu1RfUx.png
ZSgoqcn.jpg


1) MOTORCYCLE CLUB
Released on 2015-01-20
12 days of NPD tracking
Published by MAXIMUM GAMES
$29.99 MSRP
LIMITED RELEASE - Available at Gamestop, Walmart, Best Buy, and Amazon, but not Target

2) SAINTS ROW IV RE-ELECTED + GAT OUT OF HELL
Released on 2015-01-20
12 days of NPD tracking
Published by DEEP SILVER
$49.99 MSRP
FULL RELEASE - Available at all of the Top 5

3) SONY PLAYSTATION 4 500 GB THE LAST OF US REMASTERED BUNDLE BLACK
Released on 2015-01-23
9 days of NPD tracking
Published by SONY COMPUTER ENTERTAINMENT AMERICA
$399.99 MSRP
Verified Manufacturer's Bundle
LIMITED RELEASE - Available at Gamestop, Target, Best Buy, and Amazon, but Walmart is not participating in the deal

4) DYING LIGHT
Released on 2015-01-27
5 days of NPD tracking
Published by WB GAMES
$59.99 MSRP
FULL RELEASE - Available at all of the Top 5



MICROSOFT XBOX ONE RETAIL RELEASES

brOd4pE.jpg
oYZGE3O.jpg


1) SAINTS ROW IV RE-ELECTED + GAT OUT OF HELL
Released on 2015-01-20
12 days of NPD tracking
Published by DEEP SILVER
$49.99 MSRP
FULL RELEASE - Available at all of the Top 5

2) DYING LIGHT
Released on 2015-01-27
5 days of NPD tracking
Published by WB GAMES
$59.99 MSRP
FULL RELEASE - Available at all of the Top 5



NINTENDO 3DS RETAIL RELEASES

There were no retail releases within the January 2015 NPD Reporting Period (2015-01-04 through 2015-01-31)



NINTENDO WII U RETAIL RELEASES

There were no retail releases within the January 2015 NPD Reporting Period (2015-01-04 through 2015-01-31)



MICROSOFT XBOX 360 RETAIL RELEASES

5pkNFAi.jpg


1) SAINTS ROW IV GAT OUT OF HELL
Released on 2015-01-20
12 days of NPD tracking
Published by DEEP SILVER
$19.99 MSRP
LIMITED RELEASE - Available at Gamestop, Walmart, Best Buy, and Amazon, but not Target



SONY PLAYSTATION 3 RETAIL RELEASES

cvHPEuo.jpg
wr5rUbD.png


1) MOTORCYCLE CLUB
Released on 2015-01-20
12 days of NPD tracking
Published by MAXIMUM GAMES
$19.99 MSRP
LIMITED RELEASE - Available at Gamestop, Walmart, and Amazon, but not Target or Best Buy

2) SAINTS ROW IV GAT OUT OF HELL
Released on 2015-01-20
12 days of NPD tracking
Published by DEEP SILVER
$19.99 MSRP
LIMITED RELEASE - Available at Gamestop, Walmart, Best Buy, and Amazon, but not Target



SONY PLAYSTATION VITA RETAIL RELEASES

bPD77Jc.jpg


1) HYPERDIMENSION NEPTUNIA RE;BIRTH 2 SISTERS GENERATION
Released on 2015-01-27
5 days of NPD tracking
Published by IDEA FACTORY
$39.99 MSRP
LIMITED RELEASE - Available at Gamestop and Amazon, but it's only available online at Target and most likely Best Buy (with in-store pickup). In addition, Walmart doesn't offer the product at all.



Prediction Format: (repeating to emphasize to use this format)

[3DS]
[PS4]
[WIU]
[XB1]

December's Results (estimates)
1. XB1 ~ 1.29m
2. PS4 ~ 1.065m
3. 3DS ~ 810K
4. WIU ~ 580K

December 2013 NPD thread
January 2014 NPD thread

NPD Prediction Thread Archive
 
I've been following Amazon daily this month and the PS4 was ahead almost the whole time despite the price drop of the X1. I'm not sure about other retailers, so I'll be waiting for more info from Abdiel before making my predictions. I'm expecting a ~70K-100K gap between the two either way
 
[3DS] 74K
[PS4] 264K
[WiiU] 56K
[XB1] 209K

I feel like Wii U could be slightly higher by 1 or 2 values. Have to look into things a bit more and make necessary adjustments.
 
Amazing that on Amazon the PS4 is still ahead even with the XB1 being $50 cheaper. What could explain this? Especially after the thrashing the PS4 got on Nov. and Dec?

Can't wait for Abdiel and his assessment...
 
A_Gorilla said:
Amazing that on Amazon the PS4 is still ahead even with the XB1 being $50 cheaper. What could explain this? Especially after the thrashing the PS4 got on Nov. and Dec?

Can't wait for Abdiel and his assessment...
Click to expand...

Is it really that surprising? The PS4 has had consistent interest every month since it launched because Sony capitalized on its superior hardware and jumped on every PR fumble Microsoft made. We know why the XB1 took those months - the fire sale. I mean, the thing has dropped from $399 to $349 twice already to jump start sluggish sales, even after dropping from $499 and abandoning Kinect to the wastelands (where wild Vita roam).

Sony was thrashing them for the entire year prior to that due in large part to that consistent interest and the continued narrative of more power, more games, and not being the dickhead company this time around. The XB1 deals were fantastic, but a lot of folks are predicting that it simply moved up many future purchases and snagged the hardcore gamers willing to juggle two console platforms. I think that's spot on and something that the Amazon hourly chart seems to suggest for this month.

I think upcoming exclusives, that consistent interest, and positive word of mouth from gamers this holiday season may be what's helping Sony reclaim the top spot this month.
 
[PS4] 275K
[XB1] 225K
[3DS] 75K
[WIU] 50K


A_Gorilla said:
Amazing that on Amazon the PS4 is still ahead even with the XB1 being $50 cheaper. What could explain this? Especially after the thrashing the PS4 got on Nov. and Dec?
Click to expand...

I think the price increase for that two week period hurt it more than expected -- wouldn't be surprised if there's still people out there who think the system's price is $400.

On top of this, the people buying consoles this month are probably more "hardcore"... huge drop in sales this month (as usual after the Holiday season) + people buying a console (in this case PS4) for the early 2015 exclusives.

PS4 should take February and March due to the exclusive games. While I don't think either game will be HUGE pushes to make people buy a PS4, I do think that they will definitely be enough for the PS4 to have the highest sales for those two months (pretty easily). Should be interesting to see the push that MS will give to the Xbox One during the Holiday season for this year. The gap between the two systems (NPD) could end up being lower than it is now if they do similar to how they did in Holiday 2014.
 
Bgamer90 said:
[PS4] 275K
[XB1] 225K
[3DS] 75K
[WIU] 50K




I think the price increase for that two week period hurt it more than expected -- wouldn't be surprised if there's still people out there who think the system's price is $400.

On top of this, the people buying consoles this month are probably more "hardcore"... huge drop in sales this month (as usual after the Holiday season) + people buying a console (in this case PS4) for the early 2015 exclusives.

PS4 should take February and March due to the exclusive games. While I don't think either game will be HUGE pushes to make people buy a PS4, I do think that they will definitely be enough for the PS4 to have the highest sales for those two months (pretty easily). Should be interesting to see the push that MS will give to the Xbox One during the Holiday season for this year. The gap between the two systems (NPD) could end up being lower than it is now if they do similar to how they did in Holiday 2014.
Click to expand...

You have to think Sony does a price drop for this year's holiday shopping season after two full years on the market. I don't think the same strategy for Xbox will work as well again because of that, but I guess that really depends on how low they are willing to go.
 
Bgamer90 said:
[PS4] 275K
[XB1] 225K
[3DS] 75K
[WIU] 50K




I think the price increase for that two week period hurt it more than expected -- wouldn't be surprised if there's still people out there who think the system's price is $400.

On top of this, the people buying consoles this month are probably more "hardcore"... huge drop in sales this month (as usual after the Holiday season) + people buying a console (in this case PS4) for the early 2015 exclusives.

PS4 should take February and March due to the exclusive games. While I don't think either game will be HUGE pushes to make people buy a PS4, I do think that they will definitely be enough for the PS4 to have the highest sales for those two months (pretty easily). Should be interesting to see the push that MS will give to the Xbox One during the Holiday season for this year. The gap between the two systems (NPD) could end up being lower than it is now if they do similar to how they did in Holiday 2014.
Click to expand...

The price never went back to $399 on Amazon and the price are clearly marked on each console with the X1 having the advantage of its thumbnail showing the bundled games while Ps4 doesn't show it comes with TLOU. Pretty sure Ps4 is just more popular right now. Sales will be closer than last year though.
 
StrongBlackVine said:
You have to think Sony does a price drop for this year's holiday shopping shopping after two full years on the market. I don't think the same strategy for Xbox will work as well again because of that, but I guess that really depends on how low they are willing to go.
Click to expand...

PS4 had solid deals/bundles too but I agree that there will more than likely be an official price drop this year.

I think MS is willing to go low to try and get good PR during that time -- especially since the PS4 will actually have a big AAA exclusive during that time. Wouldn't be surprised to see the XB1 at $250-300 with a free bundled game.

____________

gtj1092 said:
The price never went back to $399 on Amazon and the price are clearly marked on each console with the X1 having the advantage of its thumbnail showing the bundled games while Ps4 doesn't show it comes with TLOU. Pretty sure Ps4 is just more popular right now. Sales will be closer than last year though.
Click to expand...

I was simply talking about the price increase in general -- not just on Amazon.
 
StrongBlackVine said:
You have to think Sony does a price drop for this year's holiday shopping shopping after two full years on the market. I don't think the same strategy for Xbox will work as well again because of that, but I guess that really depends on how low they are willing to go.
Click to expand...

Xbox One will have Halo 5 and Rise of the Tomb Raider. I'm expecting a great holiday.

PS4 should come stronger as well, after lose in holiday 2014 Sony probably will be more aggressive this year and they have Uncharted 4.
 
allan-bh said:
Xbox One will have Halo 5 and Rise of the Tomb Raider. I'm expecting a great holiday.

PS4 should come stronger as well, after lose in holiday 2014 Sony probably will be more aggressive this year and they have Uncharted 4.
Click to expand...

I'm thinking Rise of the Tomb Raider will be the bundled game. Can't see many people getting an Xbox One for it when the system will have other big exclusives being pushed/sold at the same time.

Tomb Raider is popular but I really don't think it will be a big reason for people to get an Xbox One when it releases. Xbox One being a cheaper price than PS4 + free Tomb Raider would definitely help though. Good system price + (hopefully) good free AAA game = easier to spend money on the other Xbox exclusives.
 
Kayant said:
Look at amazon XB1 sales doesn't look like it improved after the $349 announcement.
Click to expand...

Not suprising - people who really wanted XB1 bought it before sales ended in November/December.

And 50$ drop is nowhere near the black friday deals so people know Microsoft can do better.
 
Kayant said:
Looks like PS4 is back to leading wondering how much ground it will regain this year from the loss of the holidays?
Click to expand...

September was huge for the PS4 due to Destiny which helped increase the gap.

The system doesn't have a game before the Holiday season with that same amount of hype. 360/PS3 is done and the XB1/PS4 are standard now (instead of NEW!). Due to all of that, I don't think the gap between the two systems will be as big as it was last year.

PS4 had an overall lead of 1.2 Million after October NPD if I remember correctly. I don't think the gap will ever get that big this year. Could see it getting to about 1 Million before November and then possibly going back down to around 500-600K when 2016 starts depending on what MS will do with the Xbox One during the Holiday season (deals/price drops).

Edit: Wonder if there will be an Xbox One bundle for Madden NFL 16...
 
[3DS] 69K
[PS4] 270K
[WIU] 52K
[XB1] 200K

I do not think the PS4 doing double Xbox1 numbers of last January will hold true this time, but the momentum that Xbox was supposed to carry into 2015 is clearly not there. With holiday hype down I think we will see a return to norm,but with a little more competitive Xbox1 thanks to pricing. Subject to change with retail insights^^

Edit: Adjusting down after retail insights. Ranking still looks correct, but may have been too optimistic in my original numbers.
 
Kayant said:
Looking at amazon XB1 sales doesn't look like it improved after the $349 announcement.

Announcement - 12th Jan

http://www.amazon.com/gp/bestsellers/2015-01-19/videogames/ref=zg_bs_tab_t_bsar#1

PS4 - 12th
XB1 - 26th

http://www.amazon.com/gp/bestsellers/2015-01-26/videogames/ref=zg_bs_tab_t_bsar#1

PS4 - 14th
XB1 - 40th

Looks like PS4 is back to leading wondering how much ground it will regain this year from the loss of the holidays?

[PS4] 245k
[XB1] 165k
[3DS] 75k
[WiU] 45k
Click to expand...
Damn, it's hard to believe the PS4 is so far ahead of the X1 in those charts. And some people believed the holiday momentum would carry on....
 
Bgamer90 said:
September was huge for the PS4 due to Destiny which helped increase the gap.

The system doesn't have a game before the Holiday season with that same amount of hype. 360/PS3 is done and the XB1/PS4 are standard now (instead of NEW!). Due to all of that, I don't think the gap between the two systems will be as big as it was last year.

PS4 had an overall lead of 1.2 Million after October NPD if I remember correctly. I don't think the gap will ever get that big this year. Could see it getting to about 1 Million before November and then possibly going back down to around 500-600K when 2016 starts depending on what MS will do with the Xbox One during the Holiday season (deals/price drops).

Edit: Wonder if there will be an Xbox One bundle for Madden NFL 16...
Click to expand...

If you think the gap will shrink like it did this year you must be predicting Sony to stay at $399. No way that happens. Also there doesn't have to be one game like Destiny to increase the gap. Many games over the year can provide boost. Plus I'm pretty sure there will be a price drop come September for Ps4 to maintain yoy growth.
 
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