Interesting times ahead (not taking Jez’s latest tantrum into account, he needs to go outside a bit more) - I think in a couple of years the console market is going to have changed beyond anything we would recognise today.
I think it will be adapt or die time for Sony (for everyone really), but I’m sure the majority here disagree with that and will encourage them to double down on current tactics.
Can’t wait for June 9.
This is what I have been saying since the writing was on the wall in February. It's not a sure thing, but if you play out a few steps ahead into the future it is theoretically possible that Sony is actually not positioned well for the future.
1)
MS: they will transition to 3rd party relatively smoothly. I'm sure there will be some pain, or shedding of staff as they find the right funding levels for their operations. But they're more 3rd party than 1st at this point, with Activision / Bethesda. They can exist without the 30% from all games from their store and not really change that much. Their 1st party stuff will sell well on PC and PS. They have resources to transition fairly seamlessly to a PC storefront, and they have a large mobile presence now. If consoles fully get phased out over the next decade, they're positioned to be the largest 3rd party publisher in the industry with a small hardware, PC store, cloud, and subscription presence as well with Gamepass.
2)
Nintendo: I'm sure they will keep going with closed hardware. But if for some reason they actually had to change to 3rd party, they could. If anyone would get casuals to sign up on TVs for an app, it's Nintendo. It could potentially explode to the level of Netflix. Their games aren't super expensive to make, and they all sell well. They have universal appeal. They don't get a ton from major 3rd party sales on their store now anyway. They get some, but they could adapt.
3)
Sony: They absolutely massively depend on 3rd party sales on their store to exist in their current form. Even with all that passive income from their closed ecosystem, and extremely strong console sales, they are still running thin profit margins. Their games take a long time to make, they're extremely expensive, and they don't put out tons of them. If for some unforseen reason they actually do have to transition out of consoles, they are very poorly positioned to be a 3rd party publisher exclusively and they would have a huge issue. They have some PC presence too, but they aren't positioned yet for a seamless transition to a PC storefront. They could be though if they invest in it.
So yeah, basically I think Sony's future heavily depends on consoles continuing to exist. If they don't, PS will still always be around. They're insanely popular, but they would be hit hard in a transition if they don't think about that now and start adjusting how they operate. All 3 will be around. Will consoles be around in 10 years though? I am a lot less confident about that.