The problem is that you're all acting like recidivism is somehow unique to sexual assault crimes, when its not.
Recidivism isn't even really all that relevant, though. No one has to actually be worried about him leaping across a table to rape them for this to be a real issue.
The first question is whether this guy is in any way someone we'd want to hold up as in any way a worthwhile or positive role model. I really, really hope that everyone could agree that this one is a big "no" -- even in the most positive possible read, the guy may be "reformed" and do good stuff now, but he doesn't even bring up any kind of restitution or even apology to his victim.
Then the followup question is, knowing that this person who's a terrible example is trying to participate in the community, what do we do? I know that if I was personal overlord and master of the DCI I'd go scorched-earth because the last year has worn out every bit of patience I ever had for reddit misogynerds, but in reality that option isn't even within field goal distance of on the table. Instead, we're talking about one possible official solution (actively keep focus and spotlight from him if he performs well in an event) and one community solution (tell everybody loudly about his actions, to make sure that everyone is aware.)
The first item on that list (downplay coverage) is barely even a punishment. If he's still able to compete -- and win prizes -- then all it really does is offset Wizards' PR hit a little.
The second one is already having more actual consequences, but they're natural consequences from people reacting to a piece of legally public information. Given that he doesn't seem interested in bowing out even if people metaphorically spit on him, and that these natural consequences have had so little effect on any other part of his life, I'm hard-pressed to find sympathy here.
Ultimately this really does get back to the lifetime-bans-for-cheating discussions. When we identify a cheater and ban them forever, it's true that we're discounting any possibility of reform. The thing is that we actually
don't care, because we're talking about an elective entertainment activity, which no one person has any absolute right to but which the broad community of upstanding participants don't want to see ruined by bad apples. If someone gets a lifetime ban and really turns into a completely upstanding, moral, scrupulous person five years down the road, they still don't
deserve to get allowed back in and it's no great moral injustice if they aren't, because our primary goal is protecting the community from the toxicity of cheaters. In this case, taking steps to marginalize this guy doesn't take into account whether he's "reformed," but it doesn't matter -- his presence in the community is inherently toxic because of his history, and for that community needs to protect itself by pushing him out. If that isn't perfectly, divinely "fair," it really doesn't matter -- it's no great injustice to him and it'll leave the community much healthier and more welcoming in the future.