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Major East Coast Storm to Hit Mid-Atlantic and New England Tuesday

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E

Enduin

No bald cap? Lies!
supergiz said:
I usually walk from Brooklyn to Wall Street via Brooklyn Bridge. This morning was all right. Better to walk back or subway this afternoon?
Click to expand...

Depending on the time walking will probably result in freezing your nuts off and becoming a permanent fixture on the bridge, while subway will probably result in you and several other people becoming intimately acquainted with one another in ways you never thought possible as seemingly every human being in the city tries to cram into just your train car alone.

So good luck.
 
M

Mully

Member
TarpitCarnivore said:
Folks in that Accuweather thread are still optimistic for it being 18-24 in the Jersey/NY region.
Click to expand...

Accuweather is a great resource but be careful. Amateur weather forecasters flock to the site and basically root for a storm to go a certain way based on their predictions; almost to the point of cognitive dissonance.

There are great people on that site, and you'll figure out who they are pretty quickly. The good guys, who are meteorologists most of the time, don't post often, but when they do it's very long, very technical, filled with maps, and there's little excitement in their tone.
 
X

xsarien

daedsiluap
Word went out this morning that we're all free to "use our best judgement."

So I'm leaving work no later than 5pm and just gonna work from home tomorrow.
 
T

TarpitCarnivore

Member
Mully said:
Accuweather is a great resource but be careful. Amateur weather forecasters flock to the site and basically root for a storm to go a certain way based on their predictions; almost to the point of cognitive dissonance.

There are great people on that site, and you'll figure out who they are pretty quickly. The good guys, who are meteorologists most of the time, don't post often, but when they do it's very long, very technical, filled with maps, and there's little excitement in their tone.
Click to expand...

From what I've been reading (in the brief time I've read their forums) is most think the forecast models are over predicting the storm. Even in my time of re-reading the NWS for my area the predictions have fluctuated 4-5" so who knows.
 
T

teruterubozu

Member
TarpitCarnivore said:
Yes. Forecasts are all over the place right now with it being as low as 15-18 to as high as 53" (LOL). I'm still hoping for 18-24 instead of 24-36.
Click to expand...

53" wow, lol.
Accuweather forum dudes have some interesting insights regarding NYC:

1. Never in 2000 yrs has NY received 4 feet, so it's not worth freaking over.

2. However, only 5 times in 100 yrs. NYC received 2+ feet, so this storm is almost guaranteed to cripple the city.
 
J

Joe Shlabotnik

Banned
TarpitCarnivore said:
Yes. Forecasts are all over the place right now with it being as low as 15-18 to as high as 53" (LOL). I'm still hoping for 18-24 instead of 24-36.
Click to expand...

This usually means it's going to be pretty awful. When the totals start high and get pared back that's the best chance of it being a "miss" on the low side. When they add inches or are all over the map it often ends up on the high side.
 
C

Clearos

Member
Minus shoveling every few hours...elder scrolls online marathon for the next few days.

Already getting rumors that the factory is closing for Wednesday as well.
 
S

Seven Force

Banned
Can't 100 percent confirm, but word is that MTA's going to be operating in Plan 5 mode. Basically, bus service is gradually shut down throughout the day into the evening, underground train service is local so that express tracks can be used for storage, and portions of lines that are easily affected by harsh weather are suspended. (Pretty much everything south of Atlantic Ave & Prospect Park going towards Coney Island, the Rockaways in Queens, and the 5 between E 180th and Dyre Ave in the Bronx.)

Haven't heard anything about a full shutdown yet, but I wouldn't rule out the possibility.
 
T

TarpitCarnivore

Member
teruterubozu said:
53" wow, lol.
Accuweather forum dudes have some interesting insights regarding NYC:

1. Never in 2000 yrs has NY received 4 feet, so it's not worth freaking over.

2. However, only 5 times in 100 yrs. NYC received 2+ feet, so this storm is almost guaranteed to cripple the city.
Click to expand...

Saw that too, hence my LOL. I'm still holding hop for 2 feet max, but given the past few blizzards anything is possible.

I'm just thankful to no longer be in a place with giant gables and alternating roof height in the line of snow drifts. I used to walk outside to see 4-5' drifts piled all around my roof.
 
T

TarpitCarnivore

Member
Joe Shlabotnik said:
This usually means it's going to be pretty awful. When the totals start high and get pared back that's the best chance of it being a "miss" on the low side. When they add inches or are all over the map it often ends up on the high side.
Click to expand...

Those numbers I dropped are for anywhere in western Ocean County, NJ to parts of Long Island and NE. In my particular area the numbers haven't fluctuated a whole lot.
 
A

A Human Becoming

More than a Member
This is looking to be the second if not worse winter storm I can remember, the other being the Ice Storm of '98. For my parents the other one is the Blizzard of '78.

It's suppose to be unusually cold for a snow storm Tuesday with a high of 19F. Latest update is looking like we'll get a minimum of 18 inches with the possibility of over 2 feet.
 
M

Mully

Member
TarpitCarnivore said:
From what I've been reading (in the brief time I've read their forums) is most think the forecast models are over predicting the storm. Even in my time of re-reading the NWS for my area the predictions have fluctuated 4-5" so who knows.
Click to expand...

Most of the models are having similar issues according to most meteorologists. It's called convective feedback. There are areas within the south and east side of this storm that are ripe for convection (powerful thunderstorms). Convection is good in some spots, but too much can force a storm further east in this situation.

However the non-Euro models are thinking that every part of the storm is perfect for thunderstorms even though they are not programmed to even think about convection. Sometimes they are surprisingly right with these predictions for simpler storms, but with complex nor'easters, like this one, they've been known to have this problem.

What makes the Euro different is that it is programmed to predict convection and does a pretty good job at it for complex systems.

What you're seeing when it comes to these waffling predictions are meteorologists trying to figure which model to believe. It's essentially one really good model, the Euro and it's dumb, come lately model friend the NAM saying big snow; and a large group of average to below average models saying a more eastward storm (less snow in NY) who have been known to have the issues they've been having. Although, it's hard to ignore the large group because it's so large and the big snow group (Euro and NAM) is so small.
 
J

jstripes

Banned
teruterubozu said:
53" wow, lol.
Accuweather forum dudes have some interesting insights regarding NYC:

1. Never in 2000 yrs has NY received 4 feet, so it's not worth freaking over.

2. However, only 5 times in 100 yrs. NYC received 2+ feet, so this storm is almost guaranteed to cripple the city.
Click to expand...

I didn't know they had records dating back 200 years. :p

Anyway, from an outside perspective, this is going to be an interesting event.

perfectchaos007 said:
Thundersnow?
Click to expand...

I see your Thundersnow and raise you Frost Quakes.
 
terrisus

terrisus

Member
CrocMother said:
Jacknicholsonnodding.gif
Click to expand...

ohyou.jpg
 
M

MetatronM

Unconfirmed Member
Mully said:
Most of the models are having similar issues according to most meteorologists. It's called convective feedback. There are areas within the south and east side of this storm that are ripe for convection (powerful thunderstorms). Convection is good in some spots, but too much can force a storm further east in this situation.

However the non-Euro models are thinking that every part of the storm is perfect for thunderstorms even though they are not programmed to even think about convection. Sometimes they are surprisingly right with these predictions for simpler storms, but with complex nor'easters, like this one, they've been known to have this problem.

What makes the Euro different is that it is programmed to predict convection and does a pretty good job at it for complex systems.

What you're seeing when it comes to these waffling predictions are meteorologists trying to figure which model to believe. It's essentially one really good model, the Euro and it's dumb, come lately model friend the NAM saying big snow; and a large group of average to below average models saying a more eastward storm (less snow in NY) who have been known to have the issues they've been having. Although, it's hard to ignore the large group because it's so large and the big snow group (Euro and NAM) is so small.
Click to expand...

Looks like the latest GFS model just said <10 inches for NYC. Models are all over the place now.
 
B

BioHazard

Member
NYC Scanner &#8207;@NYScanner 5 minutes ago
NYC: NYS Thruway and all NYS controlled highways/parkways will be closed at 10 PM tonight. #Blizzardof2015
 
BennyBlanco

BennyBlanco

aka IMurRIVAL69
I feel bad for anyone who works in a grocery store. I just passed Shoprite in Bloomfield and there was a massive line of cars waiting to get in the parking lot.

Roads are fine in jersey right now.
 
M

Mully

Member
Mully said:
Most of the models are having similar issues according to most meteorologists. It's called convective feedback. There are areas within the south and east side of this storm that are ripe for convection (powerful thunderstorms). Convection is good in some spots, but too much can force a storm further east in this situation.

However the non-Euro models are thinking that every part of the storm is perfect for thunderstorms even though they are not programmed to even think about convection. Sometimes they are surprisingly right with these predictions for simpler storms, but with complex nor'easters, like this one, they've been known to have this problem.

What makes the Euro different is that it is programmed to predict convection and does a pretty good job at it for complex systems.

What you're seeing when it comes to these waffling predictions are meteorologists trying to figure which model to believe. It's essentially one really good model, the Euro and it's dumb, come lately model friend the NAM saying big snow; and a large group of average to below average models saying a more eastward storm (less snow in NY) who have been known to have the issues they've been having. Although, it's hard to ignore the large group because it's so large and the big snow group (Euro and NAM) is so small.
Click to expand...

Also I forgot to add the non Euro models (sans the NAM) are predicting the trough to go negative later when it's literally already going negative according to observations right now.

If the Euro is again consistent with its solution again, in an hour, I think it's fair to say that the other models need to be thrown out and prepare for big snow.
 
A

An-Det

Member
Can actually see the snow coming down now here just south of Hartford. I was surprised to hear so many people went into the office today considering that it's already started.

terrisus said:
Yeah, after spending the first 28.5 years of my life in Northampton, MA, by comparison, Meriden rather sucks >.>
Click to expand...

At least Meriden has Cucaramacara. That made living in Middletown even better.
 
M

Mully

Member
perfectchaos007 said:
That would be a let down. I live in southeast Texas and we had 6-8 inches of snow during a storm in 2004
Click to expand...

The GFS is in the group of non-Euro models I mentioned that were having convective feedback issues. The GFS, like the other non-Euro models, has been predicting a later negative trough when the trough is already going negative like the Euro and NAM have been saying it would.
 
T

TarpitCarnivore

Member
Mully said:
Also I forgot to add the non Euro models (sans the NAM) are predicting the trough to go negative later when it's literally already going negative according to observations right now.

If the Euro is again consistent with its solution again, in an hour, I think it's fair to say that the other models need to be thrown out and prepare for big snow.
Click to expand...

Big snow as in the current 18-30 (NJ/NYC) & 20-30 (Mass) or worse?
 
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