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Major East Coast Storm to Hit Mid-Atlantic and New England Tuesday

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B

Basileus777

Member
jamesinclair said:
You mean the grey?

Thats handled by a different forecast center. This one still looks optimistic, although it was created at 12:45am by the NWS

StormTotalSnowFcst.png
Click to expand...

Ah, thanks. I was wondering why the bands just stopped up north.
 
G

ginger ninja

Banned
Wowww, this is the let down of the year. I just woke up and i don't see anything happening here in NYC. I am never getting excited for storms/blizzards again.
 
J

jamesinclair

Banned
Theres a potential storm for next Sunday.

If Philly, NJ and NYC dont get another 6 inches by 7am today, you could have God himself declare the storm to end man was coming and not one person would listen.

If this thing continues to fail, it will have long term dangerous effects on how people respond to storms. People remember busts for a very long time.

Especially one where the idiot governors shut down all transit and created statewide travel bans.

Anything less then a foot and everyone will consider forecasting to be an absolute joke.

And, let me guess, the federal government wont spend a penny to make the models better.

Im going to bed.
 
A

AbortedWalrusFetus

Member
jamesinclair said:
Theres a potential storm for next Sunday.

If Philly, NJ and NYC dont get another 6 inches by 7am today, you could have God himself declare the storm to end man was coming and not one person would listen.

If this thing continues to fail, it will have long term dangerous effects on how people respond to storms. People remember busts for a very long time.

Especially one where the idiot governors shut down all transit and created statewide travel bans.

Anything less then a foot and everyone will consider forecasting to be an absolute joke.

And, let me guess, the federal government wont spend a penny to make the models better.

Im going to bed.
Click to expand...

Eh, I disagree, at least here in Philly. I feel like we are used to let down storms. NJ is not going to take any storm lightly for the next 10 years after Sandy.
 
J

JackEtc

Member
I'm in Poughkeepsie, NY and we've barely had anything. Some flurries this afternoon and since the sun went down....literally nothing.

So disappointing, I don't know what's going on. At least most of my classes are cancelled tomorrow already
 
J

jamesinclair

Banned
AbortedWalrusFetus said:
Eh, I disagree, at least here in Philly. I feel like we are used to let down storms. NJ is not going to take any storm lightly for the next 10 years after Sandy.
Click to expand...

The reason Sandy wasnt taken seriously is because of a major bust people remembered.

The fact is, this was being marketed as a winter Sandy, The warning being put out essentially told people to place their wills in a ziplock bag with a bright orange color so it could be found.

Historic. Biblical. One model had 54 inches in Long Island. The MTA has never shut down for snow before today. Streets were deserted by 6pm in Central Jersey.

Busts happen. But when you call for the biggest storm in recorded history, and you get a Tuesday Clipper...

You lose all public confidence in official weather statements.
 
J

jamesinclair

Banned
Basileus777 said:
If it snows in two weeks people will still freak out. I think you're overestimating the impact of a bust here.
Click to expand...

I think the PA/NJ/NYC weather people will really have to push the Boston pictures and totals to save some face and get people to see the storm did show up, just further east.

It looks like Boston is still on track for 2 feet+

Gr1mLock said:
Everyone might as well make their own. It would be just as accurate.
Click to expand...

The National Weather Service is generally what public officials use to make decisions and theoretically the least prone to sensationalize because theyre not selling ads or ratings.
 
kyoya

kyoya

Member
Just came back after attempting a 2 AM Dunkin Donuts' run to get a dozen donuts at the location that's open 24 hours - and they are closed! There was a sign on the window saying they'd reopen at 5 AM on Wednesday. Madness! I did notice Papa John's was open but Domino's was closed.
 
S

Sanjuro

Member
kyoya said:
Just came back after attempting a 2 AM Dunkin Donuts' run to get a dozen donuts at the location that's open 24 hours - and they are closed! There was a sign on the window saying they'd reopen at 5 AM on Wednesday. Madness! I did notice Papa John's was open but Domino's was closed.
Click to expand...

Dunkin being closed is basically the equivalent of never having children after that date.

Don't bring them into this world!
 
M

Mik317

Member
Snow Jesus isn't real y'all.

It started to snow but it is already tapering off.

I get that it isn't an exact science... But how can all these people be this wrong?
 
B

BassForever

Member
Its still snowing where I am in ct but it really isn't deep at all, the stuff I shoveled yesterday is filled but I can't tell where I did or didn't shovel its all the same generic depth
 
A

adamsappel

Member
triplestation said:
I got an idea for cleaning up snow

Leave a big wooden board on the ground

Let snow collect on top

Turn over the board
Click to expand...
For big snowstorms, I cover my driveway and cars with big 16x20' tarps. It's easy to pull the tarps back with the snow and you end up with driveway and vehicles that have never been touched by flakes.
 
M

Mully

Member
jamesinclair said:
The reason Sandy wasnt taken seriously is because of a major bust people remembered.

The fact is, this was being marketed as a winter Sandy, The warning being put out essentially told people to place their wills in a ziplock bag with a bright orange color so it could be found.

Historic. Biblical. One model had 54 inches in Long Island. The MTA has never shut down for snow before today. Streets were deserted by 6pm in Central Jersey.

Busts happen. But when you call for the biggest storm in recorded history, and you get a Tuesday Clipper...

You lose all public confidence in official weather statements.
Click to expand...

The storm's not over. We could still see significant, but not historic totals. You really need to ease up on the ranting and raving; it's pretty ignorant.

This will most certainly affect public trust in the NWS, but really, they called it wrong by 50-75 miles. Central Long Island is getting hammered right now. I don't blame them putting out those totals when they did (even if I was a little doubtful at the time). We were less than 2 days away and the best model we have was consistent through three runs and the GFS had some similarities in its run at the time as well. The GFS, and other American models shifted east, and for the fourth time the Euro gave the exact same track. It would have been hazardous had they not put out a more significant forecast than they did at the time given the Euro's track record, the setup of the trough, and the waffling of the other models. They saw the Euro being the most consistent model and they ran with it.

Self-driving cars and missions to Mars are far less complex and anarchistic than the weather.

Think about how many different things looked like they were in play for this, "historic," system before today.

1. The trough needed to be at a negative tilt. It was.

2. The storm needed to phase with another system further north. It did.

3. The system over Toronto needed to be further north to stop a stream of dry air from getting into the storm. It wasn't.

4. The coastal storm needed to track 50-75 miles further west to get NYC and Philly in play. It didn't.

5. The 500MB Low needed to close off by 10PM EST to stay closer to the coast. It didn't.

Now, I want you to think about what the EURO and later the NAM said during the leadup to the storm. The models said that each of these 5 things would go right. The models and the setup looked perfect.

Think about the track record the EURO has had. It caught Sandy and accurately predicted a landfall near Atlantic City nearly a week out. It scored a coup against the other models for Winterstorm Nemo in 2013. It's a good fucking model, it was off by 50-75 miles here.

The amount of dynamics at play here, and still the EURO guided meteorologists towards a historic storm.

This is not a Tuesday Clipper, this is a rapidly strengthening coastal storm that was a tick too far east for NYC and its western suburbs. Your ignorance here is probably making public trust worse than anything else. The dynamics at play here are incredibly complex, and maybe meteorologists have done a bad job at explaining that particular notion, but the public also needs to understand how complex these situations are before they start bashing.
 
N

NateDrake

Member
Mully said:
The storm's not over. We could still see significant, but not historic totals. You really need to ease up on the ranting and raving; it's pretty ignorant.

This will most certainly affect public trust in the NWS, but really, they called it wrong by 50-75 miles. Central Long Island is getting hammered right now. I don't blame them putting out those totals when they did (even if I was a little doubtful at the time). We were less than 2 days away and the best model we have was consistent through three runs and the GFS had some similarities in its run at the time as well. The GFS, and other American models shifted west, and for the fourth time the Euro gave the exact same track. It would have been hazardous had they not put out a more significant forecast than they did at the time given the Euro's track record, the setup of the trough, and the waffling of the other models. They saw the Euro being the most consistent model and they ran with it.

Self-driving cars and missions to Mars are far less complex and anarchistic than the weather.

Think about how many different things looked like they were in play for this, "historic," system before today.

1. The trough needed to be at a negative tilt. It was.

2. The storm needed to phase with another system further north. It did.

3. The system over Toronto needed to be further north to stop a stream from getting into the storm. It wasn't.

4. The coastal storm needed to track 50-75 miles further west to get NYC and Philly in play. It didn't.

5. The 500MB Low needed to close off by 10PM EST to stay closer to the coast. It didn't.

Now, I want you to think about what the EURO and later the NAM said during the leadup to the storm. The models said that each of these 5 things would go right. The models and the setup looked perfect.

Think about the track record the EURO has had. It caught Sandy and accurately predicted a landfall near Atlantic City nearly a week out. It scored a coup against the other models for Winterstorm Nemo in 2013. It's a good fucking model, it was off by 50-75 miles here.

The amount of dynamics at play here, and still the EURO guided meteorologists towards a historic storm.

This is not a Tuesday Clipper, this is a rapidly strengthening coastal storm that was a tick too far east for NYC and its western suburbs. Your ignorance here is probably making public trust worse than anything else.
Click to expand...

So does this mean greater snow impacts for Providence, or are we still in the same 18-24in range as before? Some earlier forecast had western regions slightly higher, but if the storm tracked on a more easterly heading, would that translate to higher totals? I get we still have well over 12hrs left to the storm and nearly 10 more hours of heavy snow to come out of this before anything slows down - hell, even tomorrow night we are expected to get steady snow until early Wednesday with wind gusts up to 50mph.
 
M

Mully

Member
NateDrake said:
So does this mean greater snow impacts for Providence, or are we still in the same 18-24in range as before? Some earlier forecast had western regions slightly higher, but if the storm tracked on a more easterly heading, would that translate to higher totals?
Click to expand...

Probably more for eastern Connecticut and Western Massachusetts. As the storm stalls out east of the coast, it should weaken slightly reducing totals for Rhode Island before restrengthening as it moves up the coast.
 
lachesis

lachesis

Gold Member
well, NE bergen county NJ here...I shoveled around 10pm last night, and went to bed around midnight, watching news that the bulk of snow is coming within the hour or so... I originally intended to clean up once more around 1am, but not enough had accumulated to justify 2nd cleaning... then the boredom hit me and I dozed off.

Just woke up around 4am, looking outside - maybe a couple more inches accumulated on top of what I had already cleaned up.

So far, it's a letdown because I was all fired up and been saying "Bring it!" - but I'm also glad that it's mostly a miss around NYC area. I know people would blame local governments and media - but it's the best case scenario though, and I doubt they really had known it would be a bust.

Anyhow, going back to sleep for a couple more hours and will clean the driveway around 8am or so. Hope the transit system would be open by then, as well as the bridge & tunnel so that I can go to work into NYC...
 
B

BassForever

Member
Woke up this morning to figure out if I was still going to work or not, tried to open my front door and had to force it due to the foot of snow that had built up and was still coming down. NOPE going back to bed
 
B

BassForever

Member
LOL damn Wal-Mart they still haven't officially closed the store I work at, supposed to leave soon to be there "on time" and I can't even see the road. Guess I'm calling out for weather
 
V

vatstep

This poster pulses with an appeal so broad the typical restraints of our societies fall by the wayside.
I was hoping I'd wake up and see that Boston was gonna get next-to-nothing as well. Doesn't look like that'll be the case...

I shouldn't even really be awake right now but I had the weirdest fucking dreams of my life last night and I'm afraid to go back to sleep.
 
C

Cmagus

Member
CNN is killing me right now trying to make this storm out to be something much more than it is. HISTORIC BLIZZARD plastered all over the screen for a bit of snow.
 
T

Takamura-San

Member
It is sad when people dodge a bullet and their thought isn't " aren't we lucky", but "why is that dude such an awful shot!".

I for one am glad that I don't have to travel today. The alert is throughout the whole day today and I will play it out safe at home. People like to pretend that weather is even close to be a perfect science. At the end of the day weather does whatever the fuck weather wants to do. I rather they lean for the worst than being lenient and jaded like the people of the Internet and have more people at risk.
 
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