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Major East Coast Storm to Hit Mid-Atlantic and New England Tuesday

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L

Lionheart1827

Member
br3wnor said:
Fuckkkk, I'm on the northern coast of middle Long Island so I'm about to get hammered. Really hope we don't have power outages, supposed to be dry snow so hopefully that doesn't mess w/ the power lines too much. Gonna be shoveling at my in-laws house for hours on Tuesday/Wednesday.

Few days ago I was thinking about how tame this winter has been here on Long Island, knew it was too good to be true.

Stay safe and warm fellow north easterners.
Click to expand...

Same here, I'm over in Selden. Looks like we're right in the path. Totally working from home tomorrow/tuesday and possibly wednesday.
 
M

Mully

Member
The NAM model is being weird. There's no better word to describe it.

Surface level NAM says its a miss for anything west of Long Island. 500MB NAM at the same hour (45) says its a direct hit for the entire area.

One model run, and two different storms at two different levels. Weird is all I can say.

Surface Level NAM @ HR 45 - miss.
post-16-1422239165_thumb.jpg


500MB Level NAM @ HR 45 - direct hit.
post-16-1422239160_thumb.jpg
 
S

smokeandmirrors

Banned
Mully said:
The NAM model is being weird. There's no better word to describe it.

Surface level NAM says its a miss for anything west of Long Island. 500MB NAM at the same hour (45) says its a direct hit for the entire area.

One model run, and two different storms at two different levels. Weird is all I can say.

Surface Level NAM @ HR 45 - miss.
post-16-1422239165_thumb.jpg


500MB Level NAM @ HR 45 - direct hit.
post-16-1422239160_thumb.jpg
Click to expand...

I think the GFS was doing this earlier.
 
L

Loxley

Member
My sister and I went to the grocery store and stocked up on food for the next couple of days. Bring it on, Juno, we ain't going anywhere.
 
K

kingocfs

Member
Lionheart1827 said:
Same here, I'm over in Selden. Looks like we're right in the path. Totally working from home tomorrow/tuesday and possibly wednesday.
Click to expand...

br3wnor said:
Fuckkkk, I'm on the northern coast of middle Long Island so I'm about to get hammered. Really hope we don't have power outages, supposed to be dry snow so hopefully that doesn't mess w/ the power lines too much. Gonna be shoveling at my in-laws house for hours on Tuesday/Wednesday.

Few days ago I was thinking about how tame this winter has been here on Long Island, knew it was too good to be true.

Stay safe and warm fellow north easterners.
Click to expand...

Middle LI-GAF FTW. Centereach here. Stay safe, y'all.
 
G

GK86

Homeland Security Fail
I went to the grocery store and picked up a few things. Bring it on, Thunder Snow 2015.
 
S

Stinkles

Clothed, sober, cooperative
Was sunny and unseasonably warm in Seattle today. My sister lives in New York and was actually on the cover of the New York Times a few years ago during a crazy snowstorm - cross country skiing down fifth avenue.
 
L

Loxley

Member
PhillyGAF - from the local news just now:

- 1 - 3 inches tonight, ice build-up on non-treated roads/grass in the morning
- May have a brief lull in snowfall tomorrow afternoon between 2 - 6pm
- After that, we're looking at 1 inch of snow every hour going into Tuesday. If you have to go anywhere, I'd do it before tomorrow night.
 
Y

Ya no

Member
Southern Rhode Island here looks like we're gonna get hammered. Should probably get some food and gas tomorrow.....
 
R

Rainer70

Member
Valley Stream, Long Island here. They're hyping this one up hard. Just bought a few new books & comics recently so I'm feeling prepared for a long power outage.
 
X

XGRaViSmOrSX

Member
Rainer70 said:
Valley Stream, Long Island here. They're hyping this one up hard. Just bought a few new books & comics recently so I'm feeling prepared for a long power outage.
Click to expand...

South Shore as well. Got my driveway packed full of cars and I'm ready to play with my pups in the snow the next couple of days. Glad I don't have to work and all my brothers had their classes canceled. Party time!
 
Wag

Wag

Member
Holy shit. Well, at least I won't have to go to work for a few days. I hope my power doesn't go out though, it will be mighty cold. I have electric heat.

I'll have to shovel my car out too and I'm recovering from a broken ankle.:(
 
E

e_i

Member
Coastal Monmouth county NJ here. Yep, I'm fucked. Got my portable Anker battery packs charged and ready. Shovels and deicer at the ready. So is my Kindle and portable Bluray player and tablets.
 
M

Mully

Member
Houston, we might have an uh-oh.

Multiple models (not the Euro) are giving out similar tracks that are further East than what has been forecasted so far. Initially it was chalked up to feedback errors, but that's three different models saying similar things.

If the Euro gives a similar track at 1:45AM EST, forecasters and newscasters need to start retracting the, "historic," numbers they predicted for the area as soon as possible.
 
J

JB1981

Member
Mully said:
Houston, we might have an uh-oh.

Multiple models (not the Euro) are giving out similar tracks that are further East than what has been forecasted so far. Initially it was chalked up to feedback errors, but that's three different models saying similar things.

If the Euro gives a similar track at 1:45AM EST, forecasters and newscasters need to start retracting the, "historic," numbers they predicted for the area as soon as possible.
Click to expand...

You've been saying this shit all day and the consensus is completely diametric to what you're posting here
 
S

smokeandmirrors

Banned
Mully said:
Houston, we might have an uh-oh.

Multiple models (not the Euro) are giving out similar tracks that are further East than what has been forecasted so far. Initially it was chalked up to feedback errors, but that's three different models saying similar things.

If the Euro gives a similar track at 1:45AM EST, forecasters and newscasters need to start retracting the, "historic," numbers they predicted for the area as soon as possible.
Click to expand...

I wouldn't necessarily model hug at the moment. iirc the storm is still pretty much doing exactly what the euro predicted it would be doing earlier today.
 
M

Mully

Member
JB1981 said:
You've been saying this shit all day and the consensus is completely diametric to what you're posting here
Click to expand...

I'm not entirely sure what you're saying here.

NWS Upton is sticking to their guns according to latest update.

FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.

AS MODELS OFTEN DO NOT PLACE THE AREA OF MOST INTENSE MID
LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS FAR ENOUGH WEST. SNOWFALL RATES OF 2-4 INCHES
PER HOUR EXPECTED LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING. MUCH OF THE
AREA SHOULD SEE AMOUNTS OF 20-30 INCHES...
Click to expand...

Notrollious said:
I wouldn't necessarily model hug at the moment. iirc the storm is still pretty much doing exactly what the euro predicted it would be doing earlier today.
Click to expand...

I'm probably model hugging a little, but it's difficult not to be a little uneasy about the numbers forecasted earlier and how the past few non-Euro runs have trended east.
 
E

evil solrac v3.0

Member
Y2Kev said:
So I'm trying to figure out what the timing is going to be. We're working on a big project at work for a Wednesday meeting in Chicago. I think my boss is flying out Wednesday morning. I think that's unlikely to happen. But let's suppose it does. She probably won't come into the office on Tuesday (she lives about 45 minutes from the city). So if we had to courier the project materials to her...

It won't even be possible. Because what driver is going to drive things to her in a blizzard on Tuesday night?

Wow I'm really not sure how this is going to work.
Click to expand...


Your best bet is to have your boss out a day ahead and send the documents via e-mail and have a local shop print the documents for you.
 
J

jamesinclair

Banned
JB1981 said:
You've been saying this shit all day and the consensus is completely diametric to what you're posting here
Click to expand...

I don't think you understand.

The historic talk was due to the euro showing 30 inches plus for everybody, and the American models moving towards that Asher every cycle.

However,the latest American models both say to half that amount, and have been saying so over the past three runs

....except for the middle of Massachusetts, which still gets 30.


It's still a foot of snow....just not the three feet we were hoping for.

1:45am is when we find out what the euro says. I'll be sleeping
 
E

esms

Member
Loxley said:
PhillyGAF - from the local news just now:

- 1 - 3 inches tonight, ice build-up on non-treated roads/grass in the morning
- May have a brief lull in snowfall tomorrow afternoon between 2 - 6pm
- After that, we're looking at 1 inch of snow every hour going into Tuesday. If you have to go anywhere, I'd do it before tomorrow night.
Click to expand...

Ugh, I have a night class tomorrow.
 
S

smokeandmirrors

Banned
Mully said:
I'm probably model hugging a little, but it's difficult not to be a little uneasy about the numbers forecasted earlier and how the past few non-Euro runs have trended east.
Click to expand...

It feels like the models have problems when storms are actually coming together, weirdly enough.
 
J

JB1981

Member
jamesinclair said:
I don't think you understand.

The historic talk was due to the euro showing 30 inches plus for everybody, and the American models moving towards that Asher every cycle.

However,the latest American models both say to half that amount, and have been saying so over the past three runs

....except for the middle of Massachusetts, which still gets 30.


It's still a foot of snow....just not the three feet we were hoping for.

1:45am is when we find out what the euro says. I'll be sleeping
Click to expand...

The NAM and the GFS disagree on the eastward track. The euro snowiest of all 3. Pls link the latest run showing GFS and NAM in agreement
 
S

spyder_ur

Member
Just wanted to say how cool it is to have people that actually understand this stuff posting in here. Very informative, especially for me who has no knowledge of this stuff. Waiting here in Boston; guesing I'll get Tuesday off at the least.

Just a question though: When people say stuff like "there has never been a forecast like this", do they really mean that or just being a bit hyperbolic? I'm not challenging, just curious. What makes this storm so unique and potentially historic?
 
F

friskykillface

Banned
damnnnnnn 2-3 feet 0_o
thats me haha

i work in a supermarket and it was hell today, just people grabbing everything , tomorrow morning might be the same

i need to get some snacks and fruit tomorrow :p
 
M

Mully

Member
JB1981 said:
The NAM and the GFS disagree on the eastward track. The euro snowiest of all 3. Pls link the latest run showing GFS and NAM in agreement
Click to expand...

They're not in agreement. I was not clear there. That's my mistake.

I should have said (like Sinclair) that American models have shown an eastward trend and that's something we should think about when the Euro model comes out at 1:45AM.

Whether this pans out or not come Wednesday morning, there's certainly a glaring problem with the models; we just don't know which one is having the problem.
 
Z

Zapages

Member
I have to teach at 8:30 am on Wednesday… Hopefully we have a delayed opening and I can do double the class the following week.
 
N

NihonTiger90

Member
My sister lives in Cambridge. I'm expecting her to not be able to get to her actual workplace for days, but she can work from home.

Which considering she works for a certain cellular phone company/Internet provider, she is going to have a lot of overtime.
 
A

Ace Harding

Member
Philly checking in. I'm looking forward to this. We have had basically no snow this winter. I'm going to head home early maybe 6pm tomorrow, try to pick up some beers, make a fire and kick back and assume I'm working from home on Tuesday.
 
J

jamesinclair

Banned
Mully said:
They're not in agreement. I was not clear there. That's my mistake.

I should have said (like Sinclair) that American models have shown an eastward trend and that's something we should think about when the Euro model comes out at 1:45AM.

Whether this pans out or not come Wednesday morning, there's certainly a glaring problem with the models; we just don't know which one is having the problem.
Click to expand...

People talk about self driving cars being here any day now, and yet twelve hours before a storm, the models can't agree on anything.

Makes one think

I just wish we could pull a billion from the Pentagon a give it to weather models.
 
K

Knoxcore

Member
With the recent model runs it's looking less like 2-3 feet and more like 6"-12" for NYC. What a difference a few hours make. I know people who really want a big Blizzard is waiting for the European model but if that shifts its track East I think we can safely call this a major snowstorm and not a bibical snowstorm.

jamesinclair said:
People talk about self driving cars being here any day now, and yet twelve hours before a storm, the models can't agree on anything.

Makes one think

I just wish we could pull a billion from the Pentagon a give it to weather models.
Click to expand...

I don't think it is fair to compare something as complicated and unpredictable as the weather with autonomous vehicles.
 
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