Hard to say IMO until the game is out.
Arc Raiders achieved a much bigger CCU once it was out vs its own server slam , though I think it benefited from a novelty appeal that I'm not sure this game will have.
It could also be one of those games they isn't a massive hit but gets a big enough audience to quietly do decently I'm the background for many years (Like From Honor). Though I doubt Sony would be pleased with that sort of result from a studio they paid multiple billions for.
At launch, 100% won't reach sales metrics. Way too early to call the game a flop, though. Zero chance the game doesn't have a strong userbase to sustain constant updates. GAAS are about the long term.