Support NeoGAF

[Smiles and Cries]

wait seems like New Jersery and New York might get it's own Ship

4 passengers on a cruise ship docked near New York City are getting further evaluation for coronavirus | CNN

Passengers on a Royal Caribbean cruise ship that docked Friday morning near New York City will be assessed in port for the coronavirus, an official with the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention with knowledge of the situation tells CNN.

www.cnn.com

I hope they don't have the virus because this is some bullshit if they overeacted out of fear





the bottom video said the ship was suppose to pick up its next batch of passengers to go out on Cruise again at 1PM today
Imagine if you had a ticket for that trop

 

[Croatoan]

Based on what chinese researchers have said this virus has a really long term.

Infection

~5 days later first symptoms (mild fever and cough)

By end of week one - ( feel poopy but not that bad)

By end of week two - ( feeling better (G1), or have been hospitalized(G2)

By end of week three - (G1 (Feel fine but might still contagious), G2 (feeling better, or have developed pneumonia (G3), or have died (G4))

By end of week 4 - (G1 (feel fine and not contagious (cleared)), G2 (Feel fine but still contagious), G3 (are getting better, or have died (G4))

Basically if you are still in ICU after week 3 you have are more likely to pass away. That said it takes a long time to get cleared of the virus and recovering from pneumonia can takes weeks.

This is why the "Recovered" lag behind "the dead". It could take as long as 8 weeks from infection for some to recover.

This also highlights the problem with hospital bed availability. If you do not get care, the death rate probably hovers around 70% -90% for those that develop pneumonia.

 

[Cybrwzrd]

With CES being in early January, and the number of Chinese exhibitors, I am surprised we didn't see a pocket of infections spread from there to be honest.

In other news, Guangzhou is now under quarantine. I'd imagine the rest of the Pearl River Delta cities will follow soon.

 

[Smiles and Cries]

I don't really like the map on CNN showing where the ship is docked in NJ

any map you can zoom out off and see your own little town is a bad map

hope no one tests positive

 

[Ma-Yuan]

As I have said before, all Chinese are compromised due to their air quality alone. At 33 the dudes lungs were probably the same as a 50 year old american smoker.

This is why we won't know anything about this virus until people who haven't spent the majority of their lives in China start dropping dead.



I explained why the CCP has done what they have done a few pages back.

TLDR

-virus takes ~2-5 weeks to clear
- virus puts about 20% of people in the hospital
- Virus has ~2% death rate, >15% if you are hospitalized
- CCP realized early on they didn't have enough hospital beds or ICUs so they shut everything down in order to keep the tragedy in Wuhan from happening all over.
- Wuhan is an example of what happens when you run out of hospital beds. A 2% death rate virus kills WAY more people because they cannot get care.
- The problem with this virus is not death rate it is hospitalization rate
- Other countries are going to try and slow the virus as much as possible to keep hospitals from getting overwhelmed. They also hope to stall the virus until the summer so that heat will help limit its spread (wont last as long on surfaces).
- Respiratory desease is worse for the Chinese because of how horrible their air quality is. It effects men more than women because there are twice as many men in china as there are women and ~60% of men smoke in china (only 1.4% of women smoke).

This should be really easy to understand and completely explains the CCP's reaction without tin foil hat "This virus kills >50% of people" bullshit.

Some stuff makes sense. But there isnt a 2:1 ratio for men to women in China. More men yes but not that much. Fucked up lungs i can also imagine. But this thing wasnt much dangerous then a flu china would be on lock down every year.

 

[Smiles and Cries]

he seems in good spirits after sitting at a dinner table with someone who was carted away to hospital

 

[Captain Zyrain]

3rd Cruise ship off Japan?

Japan to deny entry to foreigners on Westerdam | NHK WORLD-JAPAN News

Japan plans to deny foreign nationals on board a cruise ship from Hong Kong entry into the country due to a suspected case of coronavirus infection within the vessel.

www3.nhk.or.jp

Westerndam - https://www.hollandamerica.com/en_US/cruise-ships/ms-westerdam/5.html

No one is letting them dock!

Cruise ship denied entry at Guam port

Guam has become the latest to reject the cruise ship MS Westerdam which sought entry into the island's only civilian seaport after the Philippines and Japan rejected its requests for

www.postguam.com

I hope no one on board is seriously sick. That'd be a death sentence (in 12 systems).

 

[synchronicity]

I know some may scoff at this, but if you want to help maximize your immunity, it's not a bad idea to add a couple cloves of crushed, raw garlic to your daily diet. Garlic can be a very effective antiviral agent.

In order to get the benefits it must be crushed to release the juices, left to sit for 10 minutes or so (not much longer as it will lose effectiveness) in order to activate the allicin (the compound which garlic uses as a defense mechanism against pests/etc and is responsible for its antiviral properties).

 

[vpance]

Former human rights lawyer Chen Qiushi, who became famous for his citizen journalism during the Hong Kong protests last year, has been posting videos from Wuhan detailing what life is really like in the city that is under lockdown.

Chen’s reporting has shown how taxi drivers in Wuhan knew about the outbreak as early as mid-December, and how medical staff at Wuhan’s hospitals had become infected with coronavirus, despite government claims to the contrary.

Chen’s WeChat account was suspended shortly after he arrived in Wuhan on Jan. 24, and other users were told that sharing Chen’s videos, which included trips to local hospitals and interviews with citizens angry at the government’s slow response, would result in them being banned too.

https://www.vice.com/en_us/article/...stleblower-doctor-li-wenliang?utm_source=dmfb

 

[DunDunDunpachi]

I know some may scoff at this, but if you want to help maximize your immunity, it's not a bad idea to add a couple cloves of crushed, raw garlic to your daily diet. Garlic can be a very effective antiviral agent.

In order to get the benefits it must be crushed to release the juices, left to sit for 10 minutes or so (not much longer as it will lose effectiveness) in order to activate the allicin (the compound which garlic uses as a defense mechanism against pests/etc and is responsible for its antiviral properties).

If the garlic was peeled by a chinese prisoner suffering from coronavirus, though....

 

[Breakage]

World is facing a 'chronic shortage' of protective equipment in the fight against the spreading coronavirus epidemic, World Health Organisation chief reveals

'Chronic shortage' of protective clothing in fight with coronavirus

The UN agency has been sending test kits, masks, gloves, respirators and gowns to every region, Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus told the WHO Executive Board in Geneva today.

www.dailymail.co.uk

 

[xellos2099alpha]

As I have said before, all Chinese are compromised due to their air quality alone. At 33 the dudes lungs were probably the same as a 50 year old american smoker.

This is why we won't know anything about this virus until people who haven't spent the majority of their lives in China start dropping dead.



I explained why the CCP has done what they have done a few pages back.

TLDR

-virus takes ~2-5 weeks to clear
- virus puts about 20% of people in the hospital
- Virus has ~2% death rate, >15% if you are hospitalized
- CCP realized early on they didn't have enough hospital beds or ICUs so they shut everything down in order to keep the tragedy in Wuhan from happening all over.
- Wuhan is an example of what happens when you run out of hospital beds. A 2% death rate virus kills WAY more people because they cannot get care.
- The problem with this virus is not death rate it is hospitalization rate
- Other countries are going to try and slow the virus as much as possible to keep hospitals from getting overwhelmed. They also hope to stall the virus until the summer so that heat will help limit its spread (wont last as long on surfaces).
- Respiratory desease is worse for the Chinese because of how horrible their air quality is. It effects men more than women because there are twice as many men in china as there are women and ~60% of men smoke in china (only 1.4% of women smoke).

This should be really easy to understand and completely explains the CCP's reaction without tin foil hat "This virus kills >50% of people" bullshit.

O please, nothing can and will excuse CCP reaction to the whistle blower. They could have easily stop it right there but no.

 

[Foamy]

It’s a shame it’s not zombies or something we can fight but nope just sitting on a seat in a train/bus is all it takes to become infected.

You just want to show off your headshot skills.

 

[V4skunk]

The truth is if it does come to that if you're not prepared you're asking to be victimized by others looking to survive. Guns,ammo,water & food are going to be the new currency. People that don't have it will take from those who do. You wanna see who someone really is? Take away their food and water and we all revert to our basest instincts which is to survive. Whatever means necessary.

It doesn't cost much as well. £20-30 gets quite a bit of tinned foods.
I recommend every one here to at least do the same!

 

[jason10mm]

I know some may scoff at this, but if you want to help maximize your immunity, it's not a bad idea to add a couple cloves of crushed, raw garlic to your daily diet. Garlic can be a very effective antiviral agent.

In order to get the benefits it must be crushed to release the juices, left to sit for 10 minutes or so (not much longer as it will lose effectiveness) in order to activate the allicin (the compound which garlic uses as a defense mechanism against pests/etc and is responsible for its antiviral properties).

Not for nothing, but how is crushing it and letting it sit for not less than or greater than 10 minutes any different than just eating it and letting the "juices" free in your mouth and stomach? Are you trying to sterilize food on your plate, in your stomach, or 'boost' your immune system?

 

[ThatStupidLion]

https://www.vice.com/en_us/article/...stleblower-doctor-li-wenliang?utm_source=dmfb

this guy has totally been detained

 

[Smiles and Cries]

https://www.vice.com/en_us/article/...stleblower-doctor-li-wenliang?utm_source=dmfb

Unless he was visibly arrested for causing panic, he won't be found
the best you can hope is to be arrested in a public way, dude can be disappeared easily infected isolated in a hospital
People take the leadership in China too lightly, you are in China what are you doing posting facts without permission?

 

[lyan]

Singapore urges calm as virus fears spark panic buying at supermarkets

Widespread stocking up of essentials such as toilet rolls and instant noodles has hit the city state after it raised its alert level on Friday.

www.scmp.com

Panic buying hits Singapore

 

[Evil Calvin]

https://www.vice.com/en_us/article/...stleblower-doctor-li-wenliang?utm_source=dmfb

Why would anyone 'GO' to Wuhan at this point? Stupid.

 

[synchronicity]

Not for nothing, but how is crushing it and letting it sit for not less than or greater than 10 minutes any different than just eating it and letting the "juices" free in your mouth and stomach? Are you trying to sterilize food on your plate, in your stomach, or 'boost' your immune system?

That's how the compound works. The enzyme reaction happens after crushed at room temperature. I assume the digestive process interferes with adequate production of the compound. I just know that the garlic must be crushed to activate the allicin.

 

[DunDunDunpachi]

That's how the compound works. The enzyme reaction happens after crushed at room temperature. I assume the digestive process interferes with adequate production of the compound. I just know that the garlic must be crushed to activate the allicin.

To piggyback off this: the reaction requires exposure to free oxygen.

 

[nush]

Why would anyone 'GO' to Wuhan at this point? Stupid.

Best place to go to interview people to tell you "shits fucked yo" and make a viral name for yourself.

 

[ThatStupidLion]

https://www.vice.com/en_us/article/...stleblower-doctor-li-wenliang?utm_source=dmfb

Another reason why theres bars over all the “hospital” windows...

 

[demigod]

Our dental supplier in TX just told us that the masks and gloves are on backorder.

 

[DunDunDunpachi]

Our dental supplier in TX just told us that the masks and gloves are on backorder.

 

[Smiles and Cries]

soeaking on Freedom of speech in China

 

[Captain Zyrain]

Finally a real medial study.

Clinical Characteristics of Patients With 2019 Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV)–Infected Pneumonia in Wuhan, China

This single-center case series describes the demographics, symptoms, laboratory and imaging findings, treatment, and clinical course of 138 patients hospitalized with 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV)–infected pneumonia (NCIP) in Wuhan, China, highlighting presumed human-to-human...

jamanetwork.com

This report, to our knowledge, is the largest case series to date of hospitalized patients with NCIP. As of February 3, 2020, of the 138 patients included in this study, 26% required ICU care, 34.1% were discharged, 6 died (4.3%), and 61.6% remain hospitalized. For those who were discharged (n = 47), the hospital stay was 10 days (IQR, 7.0-14.0). The time from onset to dyspnea was 5.0 days, 7.0 days to hospital admission, and 8.0 days to ARDS.

Based on the report, R0 from nCoV is 2.2, which estimated that, on average, each patient has been spreading infection to 2.2 other people. One reason for the rapid spread may be related to the atypical symptoms in the early stage in some patients infected with nCoV.

A recent study showed that nCoV was detected in stool samples of patients with abdominal symptoms. However, it is difficult to differentiate and screen patients with atypical symptoms. Nevertheless, the rapid human-to-human transmission among close contacts is an important feature in nCoV pneumonia.

4% death rate in relatively good conditions is bad (compared to seasonal flu, etc), thought not as bad as SARS, but this is infecting a lot more people.

26% need ICU care. I imagine the biggest issue in Wuhan is that people are NOT getting ICU care when they need it. That means a death rate could go up to 26% if all the beds are taken/etc/worst case scenario/3rd world country?

The biggest thing is this seems to be stats from a well controlled hospital and not the wild wild west of these shitty makeshift hospitals we see popping up.

 

[DunDunDunpachi]

Finally a real medial study.

Clinical Characteristics of Patients With 2019 Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV)–Infected Pneumonia in Wuhan, China

This single-center case series describes the demographics, symptoms, laboratory and imaging findings, treatment, and clinical course of 138 patients hospitalized with 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV)–infected pneumonia (NCIP) in Wuhan, China, highlighting presumed human-to-human...

jamanetwork.com

4% death rate in relatively good conditions is bad (compared to seasonal flu, etc), thought not as bad as SARS, but this is infecting a lot more people.

26% need ICU care. I imagine the biggest issue in Wuhan is that people are NOT getting ICU care when they need it. That means a death rate could go up to 26% if all the beds are taken/etc/worst case scenario/3rd world country?

The biggest thing is this seems to be stats from a well controlled hospital and not the wild wild west of these shitty makeshift hospitals we see popping up.

This seems to track with some of the earliest predictions: that the biggest issue would be the high cost / effort to contain and eradicate the virus. A war of attrition moreso than a war against a lethal virus. While developed countries will be able to overcome without too many deaths (because they have the medical infrastructure to handle it), it may wreck havoc on those third world countries that are advanced enough to have roads, access to cars, and an airport (i.e can receive it and spread it around the country), but not advanced enough to deal with hundreds of thousands of citizens with poor hygiene.

Those countries will need the world's aid once this has passed.

 

[ThatStupidLion]

Our dental supplier in TX just told us that the masks and gloves are on backorder.

......and so it begins

now i cant go to my biannual cleaning.

#firstworldproblems

 

[Furlong]

Those countries will need the world's aid once this has passed.

What again.

 

[Captain Zyrain]

Our dental supplier in TX just told us that the masks and gloves are on backorder.

I would imagine most of these are probably made in China right? Wonder if they can just take over or compel the production for use in China?

 

[Woo-Fu]

Even countries with the medical infrastructure to handle it might have at-risk populations that won't have access to that infrastructure. The homeless, for example. If it gets into the homeless population in any of America's large cities you're looking at 30% or higher mortality rates, probably, and a reservoir of infection that can't be easily contained.

 

[Captain Zyrain]

Since NeoGAF is still a gaming forum, how do we think this will impact the NextGen launches? I've already seen reports that the 2019nCov is impacting Switch production.

When do the nextgen systems need to be in full production to meet a November delivery date? I feel like in the past my launch consoles were usually made in like July?

Also:

 

[demigod]

I would imagine most of these are probably made in China right? Wonder if they can just take over or compel the production for use in China?

Just checked a box. Gloves are made in Malaysia, masks are made in China.

 

[DunDunDunpachi]

What again.

Countries that don't have good medical infrastructure will be hit the hardest. They'll need the world's aid to recover from it.

 

[Doczu]

Since NeoGAF is still a gaming forum, how do we think this will impact the NextGen launches? I've already seen reports that the 2019nCov is impacting Switch production.

When do the nextgen systems need to be in full production to meet a November delivery date? I feel like in the past my launch consoles were usually made in like July?

Also:

I'm sure it will slow down the production of consoles, as Switch already demonstrated. Foxconn is also changing production lines/rates because of it.

 

[SpartanN92]

I’m seeing some supply chain issues already in my field. I work in cellular sales and suddenly the supply of iPhone 11s has plummeted. It’s very difficult to get them right now and we’ve been told it will be a while.

 

[vpance]

Foxconn is actually making masks now. 2M per month soon

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-51410700

 

[Captain Zyrain]

I’m seeing some supply chain issues already in my field. I work in cellular sales and suddenly the supply of iPhone 11s has plummeted. It’s very difficult to get them right now and we’ve been told it will be a while.

"Sir, can I recommend you go with this refurbished Palm Pre?"

 

[flibbertyjibbert]

I’m seeing some supply chain issues already in my field. I work in cellular sales and suddenly the supply of iPhone 11s has plummeted. It’s very difficult to get them right now and we’ve been told it will be a while.

corona-chan is coming for your consoomer goods

 

[SpartanN92]

corona-chan is coming for your consoomer goods

It's coming for my commission check

 

[Croatoan]

Some stuff makes sense. But there isnt a 2:1 ratio for men to women in China. More men yes but not that much. Fucked up lungs i can also imagine. But this thing wasnt much dangerous then a flu china would be on lock down every year.

We have vaccines for the flu, not for this.

Since NeoGAF is still a gaming forum, how do we think this will impact the NextGen launches? I've already seen reports that the 2019nCov is impacting Switch production.

When do the nextgen systems need to be in full production to meet a November delivery date? I feel like in the past my launch consoles were usually made in like July?

Also:

Next gen consoles will be pushed back to 2021 is my prediction. Possibly as far as fall 2021. If the world economy dips we might not even see next gen consoles for a few years (getting food will be way more important for people). They will not exactly be well received during "The Great Depression 2.0".

Finally a real medial study.

Clinical Characteristics of Patients With 2019 Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV)–Infected Pneumonia in Wuhan, China

This single-center case series describes the demographics, symptoms, laboratory and imaging findings, treatment, and clinical course of 138 patients hospitalized with 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV)–infected pneumonia (NCIP) in Wuhan, China, highlighting presumed human-to-human...

jamanetwork.com

4% death rate in relatively good conditions is bad (compared to seasonal flu, etc), thought not as bad as SARS, but this is infecting a lot more people.

26% need ICU care. I imagine the biggest issue in Wuhan is that people are NOT getting ICU care when they need it. That means a death rate could go up to 26% if all the beds are taken/etc/worst case scenario/3rd world country?

The biggest thing is this seems to be stats from a well controlled hospital and not the wild wild west of these shitty makeshift hospitals we see popping up.

4% of hospitalized patients would make the death rate well below 2% of all cases. From other numbers only ~20% require hospitalization.

 

[Captain Zyrain]

4% of hospitalized patients would make the death rate well below 2% of all cases. From other numbers only ~20% require hospitalization.

Hopefully. We don't know the # during this date range that were in other hospitals.

As of 1/28 (the end date of the survey in question), there were 5,974 confirmed cases in China. There were 132 deaths by that date at that time, which I assume includes these 6 deaths.

The 6 deaths noted here are 0.1% mortality compared to the whole, but the 132 at that point would have been 2.2%.

Also, I feel like the cases ramped up on 1/27 onward, so the #s are likely going to be different from before that (when people were probably getting better care) and afterwards, since hospitals like this likely started getting swamped with cases.

 

[jason10mm]

Since NeoGAF is still a gaming forum, how do we think this will impact the NextGen launches? I've already seen reports that the 2019nCov is impacting Switch production.

This is a good question. I'm waiting to see the impact in smaller circles like boardgames. From what I've heard, it is about a month of lead time between printing in china and arrival in a distribution center ready to go. So any games announced for February through april may be impacted. Some companies like GMT are very open about supply issues so they will let us know. Not sure if Panda or other printers are in impacted areas though.

Anyone outside of china agile enough to snatch workload is gonna do very well I think. If this thing stretches out more than a few more months I'm not sure china will recover as this type of thing is becoming a regular occurence.

Food delivery into china is my biggest worry. Most american cities only have a few days of stores on hand, given the population density in china I gotta think it is even worse there. If they cant ship, they are gonna starve.

 

[cryptoadam]

"Sir, can I recommend you go with this refurbished Palm Pre?"

OMG I had a palm pre back in the day. I thought that thing was so high tech. 240 P videos FTW.

 

[Ma-Yuan]

We have vaccines for the flu, not for this.

You ignore what I wrote is wrong about your assumptions.

Plus we have a vaccine for a flu every year. But that doesn't mean it helps. Flu changes every year. The vaccine can be hit or miss and the general population isn't immune i assume based on low vaccine consumption rates. Only a certain percentage is. So I don't count that as valid. I never had a flu in my life nor did I ever get a vaccine. That think spread a cluster of 14 people now in Germany from one Chinese woman with no symptoms.

 

[Captain Zyrain]

This is a good question. I'm waiting to see the impact in smaller circles like boardgames. From what I've heard, it is about a month of lead time between printing in china and arrival in a distribution center ready to go. So any games announced for February through april may be impacted. Some companies like GMT are very open about supply issues so they will let us know. Not sure if Panda or other printers are in impacted areas though.

Anyone outside of china agile enough to snatch workload is gonna do very well I think. If this thing stretches out more than a few more months I'm not sure china will recover as this type of thing is becoming a regular occurence.

Food delivery into china is my biggest worry. Most american cities only have a few days of stores on hand, given the population density in china I gotta think it is even worse there. If they cant ship, they are gonna starve.

I know I saw a report somewhere, I think it was one of the Chinese mouthpieces, that they were trucking in untold tons of food to Wuhan for the people in quarantine. But I've also seen a bunch of (unverified) videos of farm/livestock animals dead/starved because they couldn't get the grain/feed for them due to the lock down. I think China has reserve stores of food/etc in case stuff like this happens, and as long as it sticks to one main province, they should be able to do OK. If 2 or 3 other provinces started showing signs of Wuhan.. I'd be a lot more grim.

OMG I had a palm pre back in the day. I thought that thing was so high tech. 240 P videos FTW.

I could type so fast on that keyboard. I miss it every time I have to use a stupid touchscreen.

 

[Stouffers]

any map you can zoom out off and see your own little town is a bad map

Well, shit.

 

[DESTROYA]

What’s wrong with octopus?

love it myself

 

[Captain Zyrain]

2841 new cases in Hubei
80 new deaths

My 10 day model would be holding for it starting to spike in the next couple of days

Also not good.