Reflecting a bit on what happened and what happens next.
(disclaimer my political background is somewhat mixed: my mothers family has been small shopkeepers and Conservative councillors going ever so far back, my fathers family has been manual workers and trades and Labour Councillors going ever so far back, I am at heart an old-fashioned Whig Liberal but have (briefly) been a member of Plaid Cymru and Conservatives in the past. My brothers are staunch Labour. I dont disrespect any of them. You may read in my humble opinion into every remark following.)
Liberal Democrats
The LibDems were always going to lose seats having gone into coalition with the Conservatives. Propping up the Tories didnt go down at all well with the more SDP end of the party and those seats were going anyhow.
But Clegg made an enormous tactical blunder during the campaign when he spoke explicitly of (paraphrasing here) either granting compassion to a minority Tory government or granting fiscal responsibility to a Labour one. That explicit nod to Labour lost him all of the seats in the South West the old Whig arm of the party.
If instead he had stood on the LibDems record in government which was, I think, a good one - and simply said what his policies would be if in government then it is likely he would not have lost those seats, that the Conservatives would not have had an overall majority and that the LibDems would still be in government. Potential LibDem voters (like me for instance) were put off by the prospect of a link-up with minority Labour/SNP.
Thats down to two things: first, Clegg read too much into the polls; and second, he lost sight of the fundamental aim of any political party which is to govern. The long-term aim of the LibDems should be to displace the Labour party as the other party in the UK, and that just might have been possible to make a start on with these results. Thats where Clegg blew it.
Where do they go from here? Its difficult. They are typically strong on civil liberties, recently strong on responsible government, and have considerable passion and ground-level organisation. But it is a long fight. They need a leader who will stand up for their principles for the next 20-odd years and, yes take opportunities.
Dont know where they will find one though. Its a shame. Ive rather enjoyed their time in coalition and I thought they could capitalise on it, but they blew it big time.
Labour
I think Miliband came across well during the short campaign. More himself, more human, more understanding, more sensible. Better under pressure too.
Labour lost it on two things. One of them is the narrative on the economy which was exploited by the Tory press, but I dont think that is the whole story by any means it certainly isnt for me. Everyone I know recognises that the economic problems werent Labours fault and that their immediate reaction to them was actually pretty well done. The other is the toxic Blair/Brown feud background to Labours 13 years in power which has emerged in goodness knows how many books and newspapers since. If a party cant govern itself properly when in government, why the hell should anybody vote for it? Gordon Brown might well have been a good, even a great, Prime Minister at one stage but by the time he got the job he was a paranoid control freak. Maybe he always was. But he was unopposed as party leader. Did nobody have any sense?
Miliband kind of inherited this and should have immediately distanced himself from it. He didnt. He went into the campaign with precious few policies the 35%, the preaching to the converted. He also didnt deal at all well with the SNP upsurge, he should have embraced it. (Remember Comintern?) The SNP is a sister party to Labour and he has a lot to learn from them.
The big question is what Labour does next. It has no monopoly on compassion, it has no monopoly on social mobility (quite the reverse now, with the rise of the Red Princes), and its Union supporters are increasingly irrelevant.
Labour needs to find a new narrative. It has been fighting the battles long ago won (public services, workers rights are now here to stay). It is no good claiming that we have ten minutes to save the NHS when everybody knows that in five years time the NHS will not have been destroyed.
It needs to find a new battle. Its most emphatically not about whether it moves to the left or to the right. Im pretty convinced that if it moves to the right it will lose, on account of the Tories having the centrist position already; Im pretty convinced that if it moves to the left it will lose too, on account of supporting already well-paid public sector workers; Im pretty convinced that the new battle is not over benefit claimants either, you cant do only that and get a majority. If I had the Labour party I would go big for the self-employed and small businesses. They are the new disenfranchised, just like industrial workers in the early 20th century. Excluded from the minimum wage, largely excluded from Working Tax Credits (which incidentally I think is a bit of a stupid idea) and hampered by all manner of employer legislation.
Many areas of the UK are pretty well lost to big business think of Merthyr Tydfil for instance so a boost to small business is about the only thing left.
I dont think any of this is going to hit home to the current leadership contenders. Itll take another change to go for it, so this is a good leadership election for any candidate to lose.
Theres a big change of direction needed.
UKIP
Fucked, thank goodness. Don't change the voting system just yet.
SNP
All power to them. Well done. Proof that a socialist party can win and win big time.
Maybe Labour should take a few lessons from them.
Best bet for Cameron give them enough powers to hang themselves with. Best bet for SNP take those powers but decline the hanging bit. Best bet for Labour, rebrand as the English branch of the SNP.
