Captain Smirk
Member
Tories + UKIP or Labour + SNP coalition
Pick your poison
Pick your poison
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May 7th | UK General Election 2015 OT - Please go vote!
- Thread starter Volotaire
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I think Sturgeon successfully allayed the fears that Cameron had tried to present about this possibility with his SNP boogeyman bullshit. Labour have veered too close to the right in recent years. A coalition with SNP could cure some of that.
But UKIP got 13% on the poll last week above all the other smalr parties.
Oh excellent, thanks!
They've won, like, 2 by-elections. When it comes down to the proper election, I will be absolutely stunned if they hit double figures.
WayneMorse
Banned
What's the likelihood of Carswell going back to the Tories if Reckless loses his seat and Farage doesn't win?
MrS
Banned
Prepare to be stunned because they are on the rise, popular in the North and Farage's straight-talking will be a hit with the 'common man' who is fed up of Labour and Tory shit-rhetoric and tittle-tattle. This would be disastrous, obviously, but the alternatives aren't exactly great either.
I'd be inclined to say that's a 50/50 between him going back tail-in-legs and running for UKIP leader.
Thats the reason though that they wont get many seats. UKIP support as a percentage maybe quite high but its spread in both the north & south, hitting both Labour & Conservatives in their heartlands. However, it probably wont be enough to overturn a majority in the seats they are likely to challenge for.
Its a problem the Libs have had for decades. Unfortunately for the Libs, they seem to have cured themselves somewhat of that little problem (which would hurt the tories as well, as another con/lib coalition is the best hope for the tories right now)
zomgbbqftw
Banned
UKIP are not going to have more than 10 MPs.
Tory/LD is much more likely than either of those.
ultratruman
Banned
Mama Robotnik
Member
Some more front page reactions to the debate, from Sky News.
Mama Robotnik
Member
Yeah. The Sun was probably going to go with that front page no matter what happened during the debate. David Cameron could have turned up drunk and called the audience plebs, and they still would have gone with that front page.
MrS
Banned
First of all, I think the Liberal Democrats are going to lose a hell of a lot of seats at this election. It has been forecast that even Clegg will lose his seat, so what does that say about the British people's views on that party?
Nobody expects UKIP to stage a complete upset and form a majority. Nobody is saying that. They will have a good election in comparison to 5 years ago though. If they can get 5-10 seats, that is good progress for them and it gives them something to build on.
JonathanEx
Member
Despite my feelings for The Sun, they're going on their voting intentions - rather than the debate.
Ooh hang on, no, leading on polls is terrible reporting.
Ooh hang on, no, leading on polls is terrible reporting.
Mama Robotnik
Member
zomgbbqftw
Banned
YouGov extras:
"Who do you think was **MOST** impressive during the section of the debate on THE ECONOMY?
David Cameron 33
Ed Miliband 22"
The economy is the number one issue. Dave wins pretty well on that with YouGov.
"Who do you think was **MOST** impressive during the section of the debate on HEALTH?
Ed Miliband 25
David Cameron 20"
And not too far behind on the NHS (number two issue).
Wins on best PM with ICM 40-28.
Sturgeon rips lumps out of SLAB.
No more direct Dave/Ed debates. Ed heading into a room with the anti-establishment parties.
The Tories will be happy tonight and so will the SNP. Her final line was killer for her and for Dave. Vote SNP to keep Labour in line will play very well for her in Scotland and very well for the Tories in middle England. The Tories are going to be parroting it to whoever they can and whenever they can (so all the time).
"Who do you think was **MOST** impressive during the section of the debate on THE ECONOMY?
David Cameron 33
Ed Miliband 22"
The economy is the number one issue. Dave wins pretty well on that with YouGov.
"Who do you think was **MOST** impressive during the section of the debate on HEALTH?
Ed Miliband 25
David Cameron 20"
And not too far behind on the NHS (number two issue).
Wins on best PM with ICM 40-28.
Sturgeon rips lumps out of SLAB.
No more direct Dave/Ed debates. Ed heading into a room with the anti-establishment parties.
The Tories will be happy tonight and so will the SNP. Her final line was killer for her and for Dave. Vote SNP to keep Labour in line will play very well for her in Scotland and very well for the Tories in middle England. The Tories are going to be parroting it to whoever they can and whenever they can (so all the time).
jimbobsmells
Member
Those newspaper headlines are ridiculous.
1604 new SNP members tonight.
zomgbbqftw
Banned
Yup. She absolutely killed it tonight. The SNP are now the natural party of government in Scotland and she defended their record well and still tore lumps out of both Ed and Dave.
The Libs will lose seats, no doubt about it. The question is just how many. The data thus far is all over the place, with some showing a drop to around only 20 MP's remaining, while other data points to a lose of no more than 20 MP's (still bad but could still be the king makers)
UKIP though is spread thinly right throughout England, pulling good numbers in alot of constituencies, though doubtful to challenge in anything more than a handful. They will be lucky if they get anymore than 5 MP's.
Especially as they are the perfect protest vote. However, in the final few days before a general election, I wouldn't be surprised if they dropped considerably. When push comes to shove in a GE, the electorate tends to run back to the Devils they know (as it becomes just as much of who you don't want in power question)
Sturgeon and Cameron were the winners tonight. Sturgeon on her ability and Cameron only had to get through tonight looking better than ed and succeeded
why oh why didn't I put money on Sturgeon winning?
e. wait, ICM is different?
Which poll are bookies using?
What were the odds?
ReplacementPelican
Member
Especially The Sun, what a piece of trash that paper is '#massdebate'
As counter-intuitive as it might seem, I wouldn't be surprised if UKIP lose seats at the election.
They've been getting squeezed in the polls as the election approaches, and because of our broken-ass electoral system even getting 10% might leave them with 0-1 MPs, while at the same time the LibDems on 9% could end up with 20-30 MPs. Similarly, the SNP on 6% could get 40-50 MPs while the Greens on the same score would likely keep their 1 MP.
FPTP fucking sucks for the geographically spread smaller parties, and for anyone who cares about reasonable representation in our democracy.
They've been getting squeezed in the polls as the election approaches, and because of our broken-ass electoral system even getting 10% might leave them with 0-1 MPs, while at the same time the LibDems on 9% could end up with 20-30 MPs. Similarly, the SNP on 6% could get 40-50 MPs while the Greens on the same score would likely keep their 1 MP.
FPTP fucking sucks for the geographically spread smaller parties, and for anyone who cares about reasonable representation in our democracy.
D
Deleted member 231381
Unconfirmed Member
It's not like the Lib Dems getting 24 seats on 10% is fair either, given 10% of the UK seats is about 63.
Chemical Rampancy
Banned
But like, he didn't.
Retire from politics.
JesseEwiak
Member
Endorse the Tories.
Pledge to allow huge amounts of lobbying from big business and to raise taxes for the poor?
Marc
Member
Turned out a lot better than I expected considering how many people were involved and how much time, thought all the smaller parties did well considering. These aren't people who are in a major parliament and used to that kind of environment in front of that kind of audience. Clearly nervous but stood up well to the established parties and were the most honest, to a fault mind, but as Ed says... so what. Enough of the bullshit and the scared to actually give an opinion as you might get disliked or some PC/elitist twat puts you down. They showed what they are about, rather than hide it (red ed) or run away (call me dave).
Ed, Cameron and Clegg didn't really stand out for me. Clegg probably doing the best of them IMO, which I kind of expected as he is actually a pretty decent debater.
I know Bennett and Wood are getting flak and I think their policies are batshit insane and rely on some kind of lost treasure discovery, but I liked them. They were different in conduct and had a different view and we got to hear that side of things when we normally wouldn't, so I appreciate that. Also amazing how strong the female influence was, good to see and hope it inspires younger women to get involved.
Just remember though similar things were said with the European elections, and then for the by-elections for which all the tory parties money and might were thrown at and still lost. They can't do that on a national scale. Same with the opinion poll rises, always downplayed and said it'll tail off.
I think you are probably right though and will be maybe 4-5 MP's if they do some amazingly good groundwork.
However, how long are we expecting this new formed government to last? What is their right to mandate a government? It will have little credibility and I doubt will last as long. The smaller parties are in the minds of the voters now, this wasn't a possibility 5 years ago. Who knows what happens in 3-4 years time if it even lasts that long. With them gaining influence and mindshare the issue of PR may be on the cards sooner than people think and maybe we'll actually get a fairer society.
Ed, Cameron and Clegg didn't really stand out for me. Clegg probably doing the best of them IMO, which I kind of expected as he is actually a pretty decent debater.
I know Bennett and Wood are getting flak and I think their policies are batshit insane and rely on some kind of lost treasure discovery, but I liked them. They were different in conduct and had a different view and we got to hear that side of things when we normally wouldn't, so I appreciate that. Also amazing how strong the female influence was, good to see and hope it inspires younger women to get involved.
Just remember though similar things were said with the European elections, and then for the by-elections for which all the tory parties money and might were thrown at and still lost. They can't do that on a national scale. Same with the opinion poll rises, always downplayed and said it'll tail off.
I think you are probably right though and will be maybe 4-5 MP's if they do some amazingly good groundwork.
However, how long are we expecting this new formed government to last? What is their right to mandate a government? It will have little credibility and I doubt will last as long. The smaller parties are in the minds of the voters now, this wasn't a possibility 5 years ago. Who knows what happens in 3-4 years time if it even lasts that long. With them gaining influence and mindshare the issue of PR may be on the cards sooner than people think and maybe we'll actually get a fairer society.
Whatever government comes from this election, I can't see it lasting more than a year, as the gap will be wafer thin. Meaning no margin for error for any party.
Con/Lib will quickly fold as both sets of backbench MP's will try to force their leaderships down different paths (as party whips will be less effective). Think that will spell the end for Cameron, and as he is quite a liberal conservative, I cant see a coalition surviving without him.
Lab/SNP (not in coalition) maybe will fall to the New Labour MP's. They know that the SNP will force the Labour leadership to the left, well out of the zone where the middle class in England will find acceptable. Lose them and the English map turns blue (apart from the northern strongholds) and Labour wont see power again for at least a decade. So they will decapitate Miliband at the first opportunity, which will be quite soon as he isn't popular with the electorate and the pact with the SNP will breakdown.
If its not that, it will be the first time an English only law is on the agenda. If you bring SNP MP's down for that, then you can guarantee the beast no one wants to wake up will raise its ugly head and its got one hell of a ferocious bite.
That beast is English Nationalism, which will leave Labour MP's scrambling for the nearest exit.
DeFiBkIlLeR
Banned
That's the sort of arrogance that killed Labour in Scotland.
What goes around comes around.
Miles Quaritch
Member
Ah, The Sun.
Are they going to try and pretend they are relevant in this election by claiming they 'wot won it' after the election?
I still remember reading how crazy some people were over how much perceived power The Sun had over winning the election for a certain party...shit was hilarious and embarrassing to read about years later.
I would have loved to have been old enough to be interested in politics around that time, but alas...I was more interested in not catching cooties.
Are they going to try and pretend they are relevant in this election by claiming they 'wot won it' after the election?
I still remember reading how crazy some people were over how much perceived power The Sun had over winning the election for a certain party...shit was hilarious and embarrassing to read about years later.
I would have loved to have been old enough to be interested in politics around that time, but alas...I was more interested in not catching cooties.
Miles Quaritch
Member
Hah, it really does.
industrian
will gently cradle you as time slowly ticks away.
The arrogance that killed Labour in Scotland was changing into a neoliberal centre-right party while still claiming to be a party for the working man. That and having no policies in Scotland outside of "it's us or the Tories."
One of the few things - possibly the only thing - that would kill the SNP is either giving up or being too strong with the quest for independence. By that I mean either demanding another referendum within the next 5 years or giving it up completely in order to to get a seat at the table with other members of the UK's political elite.
The Sun always backs who they think will win. They supported the SNP in 2011 for fucks sake:
Wrestlemania
Banned
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/apr/03/nigel-farage-hiv-claim-criticised
So they all (well, other than Cameron) came out against Farage's horrendous HIV treatment for foreigners comments on Twitter afterwards rather than during the debate. Well done, guys!
So they all (well, other than Cameron) came out against Farage's horrendous HIV treatment for foreigners comments on Twitter afterwards rather than during the debate. Well done, guys!
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