Media Create Sales 1/21 - 1/27

SSBB - 800k (95% sell through)
DMC4 - 210k (PS3) 40k (360)
Haruhi PS2 - 113k
Tales of Destiny - 97k
Disgaiea 3 - 56k
Assassin Creed - 37k

Wii - 100K
PS3 - 36K
X360 - 5800
Click to expand...

SSBB is doing even better than I thought.
no significant DMCbump for PS3 and X360 ? DMC series not system seller confirmed ?
Wii # is increased 33% from previous week (M-create's ones, not Famitsu's one).
 
tanod said:
The "theorem of videogame retail" pretty much guarantees 500k for DMC4.

25% of sales in the first week
25% of sales in the rest of first month
50% of sales during the rest of the game's life on retail shelves.
Click to expand...
Have you ever actually tried to apply this to Japan retail or is this an NPD theorem? Japan sales are very heavily front-loaded for hardcore games.
 
test_account said:
Yesterday i mean i read something about that SSBB sold 700k within the first 4 hours, but now i cant find it. Anyone knows anything more about this?
Click to expand...

Check out the page 18 of this very thread. The info about SSBB selling 700k in 4 days was from a totally different source than usual, and the fact is that so far, (which is, admittedly, approximative) we're still waiting for this number to be taken up by any of our usual, proven source.
 
apujanata said:
Wii # is increased 33% from previous week (M-create's ones, not Famitsu's one).
Click to expand...
Not to nitpick, but going by 100k hardware this weeks Famitsu numbers and last weeks MC Wii numbers at 74,544 its an increase of 25.456% to be exact :)


Stormbringer said:
Check out the page 18 of this very thread. The info about SSBB selling 700k in 4 days was from a totally different source than usual, and the fact is that so far, this number hasn't been taken up by any of our usual, proven source.
Click to expand...
Ah ok, thanks :) I was sure i read it here and i did search through some posts, but i didnt find it. I guess i should have checked more closely hehe.


Frillen said:
It was 4 days, not hours.
Click to expand...
Ah ok, that makes more sense, thanks :) I searched for "hour" and i didnt find anything hehe (i tried to search for "700" (or maybe i searched for "700k") too though, but didnt find anything then as well for some reason). I wondered since if it was 700k in four hours i wondered why Sinobi's number were so much lower, but 4 days makes more sense than 4 hours so i guess Sinobi's numbers are very correct and that is good to know :)
 
tanod said:
The "theorem of videogame retail" pretty much guarantees 500k for DMC4.

25% of sales in the first week
25% of sales in the rest of first month
50% of sales during the rest of the game's life on retail shelves.
Click to expand...

Unless if it is FF or DQ games, which usually have 50% - 70% of their LTD sales in Week 1.

In fact, on average, most game sell 40% of their LTD in the first week. Known exception :
Nintendo : The worst game % is 64% in first week, for FE : POR. Only 5 Nintendo (AFAIK) have 50%+ (from worst to not so bad) :
1. FE : POR
2. FE : Sacred Stone
3. Planet Puzzle League
4. Mother 3
5. Custom Robo Battle Revolution

jonnyram said:
Have you ever actually tried to apply this to Japan retail or is this an NPD theorem? Japan sales are very heavily front-loaded for hardcore games.
Click to expand...

I have a database of 664 games in Japan, and the 40% figure is an average for all games that I have first week data for, and whose latest # is at least 60 days AFTER launch date (so a lot of X360 and PS3 game that only show up one week or two week in FAmitsu Top 30 are not counted towards the average).

Fun fact : If I remove Nintendo's games from the database, the number increase from 40.18% to 44.57%
 
donny2112 said:
*moment of silence in respect*


For those that don't get it, "FAX" was the leak for Famitsu data. It's gone.
RIP.
Click to expand...

Well, then we have to wait 10 more days to get the Famitsu Top 30. That's not that bad.
 
DarkMehm said:
Well, then we have to wait 10 more days to get the Famitsu Top 30. That's not that bad.
Click to expand...

I usually didn't care much about the early partial Top 30 data. It was the new releases that debuted outside of the Top 30 that I was most interested in. Those games typically don't make the Top 500 for the year, so it was the only data we had on those games. For example, we wouldn't know what No More Heroes did first week without this source of data since it debuted outside of the Top 30.
 
donny2112 said:
I usually didn't care much about the early partial Top 30 data. It was the new releases that debuted outside of the Top 30 that I was most interested in. Those games typically don't make the Top 500 for the year, so it was the only data we had on those games. For example, we wouldn't know what No More Heroes did first week without this source of data since it debuted outside of the Top 30.
Click to expand...


I really loved getting that data. Damn it
 
Holy crap at a 95% sell through and 800K. Massively undershipped, people must have been going crazy looking for it to get it to a 95% sell through.

Next two weeks of numbers should be interesting. If it can break 1.5M in under 3 weeks, it has a shot of break 3M fairly easily, possibly 4M. US launch should be the Wii's biggest yet.

Disgaea 3 slowed down a bit, but overall did pretty good, worse than 1 or 2 iirc. Next week I'm not entirely sure it will even be in the top 20, but that's probably nothing new.
 
What everyone else said.

Family Ski did better than I expected. I mean it's not a smash hit, but it did better than a lot of titles and it wasn't advertised at all. I thought it would come in at around 10-15k for the week.

Again, not a smash hit but this one will probably turn a profit.
 
Vinnk said:
What everyone else said.

Family Ski did better than I expected. I mean it's not a smash hit, but it did better than a lot of titles and it wasn't advertised at all. I thought it would come in at around 10-15k for the week.

Again, not a smash hit but this one will probably turn a profit.
Click to expand...
Yep... it actually outsold Disgaea 3 after the first day figures it seems.

Which seems to be a trend for more casual leaning titles, they have more humble first debuts but rather substantial legs... now watch Family Ski go on to move 100k+. :lol
 
Captain Smoker said:
I wonder how many units Brawl is going to manage in the US then. :o

And March is a 5 weeks month, so 4 weeks will be counted.


> 1.500.000 first month?
Click to expand...

Could be more than that first day, based on pre-order numbers and the delay will help too.

jarrod said:
Yep... it actually outsold Disgaea 3 after the first day figures it seems.

Which seems to be a trend for more casual leaning titles, they have more humble first debuts but rather substantial legs... now watch Family Ski go on to move 100k+. :lol
Click to expand...

I think 100K is a guarantee, a more apt stretch would be 400K+ over its lifetime.
 
Jonnyram said:
Have you ever actually tried to apply this to Japan retail or is this an NPD theorem? Japan sales are very heavily front-loaded for hardcore games.
Click to expand...

I just realized I made a mistake. I meant to say:
25% first day
25% rest of week
50% rest of life time

That sound better?

This is just based on my experience in the Japan retail threads, not NPD. We don't get enough information to discern any pattern from NPD but I'm guessing it's at least somewhat similar to retail in Japan.

It works well for estimating most early game sales. Of course, there are a lot of caveats to it. For example, Nintendo and casual titles and games that have supply issues will buck the trend. A game releasing on a day other than Thursday screws it up too. Also, the percentage is more of a +/- 10% range than a specific amount of LTD sales.
 
Minsc said:
Could be more than that first day, based on pre-order numbers and the delay will help too.
Click to expand...
Yes, we´ll see. :)


Does anyone have the Melee US - launch numbers?

I´ve just the japanese number for the first week: 357.101
 
Vinnk said:
What everyone else said.

Family Ski did better than I expected. I mean it's not a smash hit, but it did better than a lot of titles and it wasn't advertised at all. I thought it would come in at around 10-15k for the week.

Again, not a smash hit but this one will probably turn a profit.
Click to expand...

It's also likely to have legs sort of tied to Wii Fit, since those who like the Wii Fit board might ask "which other games can I get that make use of the board?"
 
tanod said:
The "theorem of videogame retail" pretty much guarantees 500k for DMC4.

25% of sales in the first week
25% of sales in the rest of first month
50% of sales during the rest of the game's life on retail shelves.
Click to expand...

That worked really well for Mario and Sonic...And Brain Training...And Mario Kart...And Animal Crossing...And NSMB...And Wiifit....And Wiispots...
 
Xeke said:
That worked really well for Mario and Sonic...And Brain Training...And Mario Kart...And Animal Crossing...And NSMB...And Wiifit....And Wiispots...
Click to expand...

Those have higher than usual legs.

The VAST VAST VAST majority of games subscribe to the following formula, in my experience:
First day * 2-4 = First week
First week * 2-4 = Lifetime
 
Minsc said:
Next two weeks of numbers should be interesting. If it can break 1.5M in under 3 weeks, it has a shot of break 3M fairly easily, possibly 4M. US launch should be the Wii's biggest yet.
Click to expand...

New Super Mario Bros fell short of 1.5M in its first three weeks, and it opened higher than SSBB. It would have to perform significantly better than NSMB to hit the 1.5M target in 3 weeks. I still think people are getting carried away with their Smash Bros predictions. After an 800k opening, and considering this is a Nintendo title, I think 2.5M is a good bet. Anything higher than that though is still very much up in the air.
 
Minsc said:
Disgaea 3 slowed down a bit, but overall did pretty good, worse than 1 or 2 iirc.
Click to expand...
No. It did better than 1 in first week sales I think. Of course, the franchise is now established. What's important is that it didn't fail in any way at all, as many predicted (ZOMG MUCH SMALLER USERBASE). And that in this week.


Also, making some kind of formula for sales distribution over time and applying it to all games doesn't make any sense. Niche games will always have a completely different sales curve from more mainstream titles, and even more different from casual titles.
 
800,000. Nice. So could they have sold over a million if they'd had the stock available? I mean, 95%? That must've been quite an easter egg hunt.
 
I'm beginning to wonder whether there will be ANY titles for the PS3 will that will bump hardware, other than MGS4 / FFXIII.
 
Culex said:
I'm beginning to wonder whether there will be ANY titles for the PS3 will that will bump hardware, other than MGS4 / FFXIII.
Click to expand...

Really? I'm beginning to wonder whether MGS4 / FFXIII will bump it overly much. I mean, Metal Gear isn't a huge seller anyway, is it?
 
kswiston said:
New Super Mario Bros fell short of 1.5M in its first three weeks, and it opened higher than SSBB. It would have to perform significantly better than NSMB to hit the 1.5M target in 3 weeks. I still think people are getting carried away with their Smash Bros predictions. After an 800k opening, and considering this is a Nintendo title, I think 2.5M is a good bet. Anything higher than that though is still very much up in the air.
Click to expand...
Did NSMB sell 95% of its shipment?
 
kswiston said:
New Super Mario Bros fell short of 1.5M in its first three weeks, and it opened higher than SSBB. It would have to perform significantly better than NSMB to hit the 1.5M target in 3 weeks. I still think people are getting carried away with their Smash Bros predictions. After an 800k opening, and considering this is a Nintendo title, I think 2.5M is a good bet. Anything higher than that though is still very much up in the air.
Click to expand...

Was NSMB sell through also around 95% in its first week?

Edit: Beaten like an idiot shooting lions at a zoo. Maybe not that bad, but first thing that comes to mind.
 
Even if FFXIII does give PS3 a boost, the lead the Wii has built up to this point is far to big for any single game to have a major impact.

Brawl has put the PS3 in a permanent second in Japan.
 
Vinci said:
Really? I'm beginning to wonder whether MGS4 / FFXIII will bump it overly much. I mean, Metal Gear isn't a huge seller anyway, is it?
Click to expand...

Metal Gear Solid is a bigger seller than DMC4. However I don't expect PS3 sales to explode over it. They'll go up a fair amount, but nothing absolutely crazy.

On the other hand, there aren't even enough PS3s in Japan to cover the sales numbers that Final Fantasy games have typically achieved in the last 15 years. I find it hard to believe that fans of that series won't be buying consoles in force to play FFXIII and VSXIII. However, even those games aren't going to push more than a million or so PS3s. Not nearly enough to change Sony's fortunes in Japan. They need to improve their library all around. Not just rely on a couple awesome games. N64 had a few games that posted huge sales, yet that system never broke 6M.
 
donny2112 said:
This seems like another case of Famitsu going back and adjusting numbers. Disgaea 1 had sold 93K when it fell off the Top 30 in February 2003. It did not appear on the 2003 Top 100 which went down to 130920. It's possible it was #101 and was still selling some 10 months after it dropped off of the Top 30, though.

Disgaea (BEST) sold 17K by the time it dropped out of the Top 30 (~4K in its last week) after the third week of November 2004. We have the Top 500 for 2005, and it didn't show up. If it was #31 for all the remaining weeks of the year and #501 in 2005, it could've only gotten up to 89K. I find it quite unlikely that it got up to 100K without some backfitting going on.
Click to expand...

Think Disgaea 3 will have legs and top 93K like the first did inside the top 30?

Sales projections/hopes were 100K, which is basically guaranteed, but to top 93K in the top 30 would probably mean staying for another 2 weeks.
 
Vinci said:
Really? I'm beginning to wonder whether MGS4 / FFXIII will bump it overly much. I mean, Metal Gear isn't a huge seller anyway, is it?
Click to expand...

Not sure about Japan, but worldwide (rough numbers):

MGS: 6 million
MGS2: 7 million
MGS3: 4.6 million
 
_leech_ said:
Not sure about Japan, but worldwide (rough numbers):

MGS: 6 million
MGS2: 7 million
MGS3: 4.6 million
Click to expand...

The last two games in japan sold around 800k, not counting the expanded editions. MGS games sell best in Europe if I'm not mistaken.
 
_leech_ said:
Not sure about Japan, but worldwide (rough numbers):

MGS: 6 million
MGS2: 7 million
MGS3: 4.6 million
Click to expand...
MGS2 and 3 sold around 900k in Japan.

It's a much bigger franchise than DMC.
Very nice sales though for DMC, considering DMC3 sold around 300k in Japan.
 
Kastrioti said:
Even if FFXIII does give PS3 a boost, the lead the Wii has built up to this point is far to big for any single game to have a major impact.

Brawl has put the PS3 in a permanent second in Japan.
Click to expand...

jeez and Animal crossing wii and mario kart aren't even out yet not to mention wii music :D
 
Minsc said:
Think Disgaea 3 will have legs and top 93K like the first did inside the top 30?

Sales projections/hopes were 100K, which is basically guaranteed, but to top 93K in the top 30 would probably mean staying for another 2 weeks.
Click to expand...
After the first day figures, I thought 100k would be easy and it may even metriculate to 150k lifetime... but looking at the severe drop off, I sort of doubt it now. Even cracking 75k is going to be a push if sales continue as is...
 
jarrod said:
After the first day figures, I thought 100k would be easy and it may even metriculate to 150k lifetime...
Click to expand...
Your expectations surprise me -- I'm not a sales-ager at all but even I know that this type of game (a niche hardcore title in an established franchise) is always exceedingly front-loaded.
 
gogogow said:
MGS2 and 3 sold around 900k in Japan.

It's a much bigger franchise than DMC.
Very nice sales though for DMC, considering DMC3 sold around 300k in Japan.
Click to expand...
But MGS is also "smaller" than Musou, Mingol or WE. DMC4's performance is impressive no doubt, but lets not forget it's basically the only HD release this gen to buck the overall trend of falling sales. Mingol, Musou, WE, VF, GT, ACore, Genji, R&C... literally nothing else on PS3 has managed to "come close" like DMC4 did.
 
Durante said:
Your expectations surprise me -- I'm not a sales-ager at all but even I know that this type of game (a niche hardcore title in an established franchise) is always exceedingly front-loaded.
Click to expand...
I didn't think they'd be *that* front loaded. Actually, I don't think anyone did, most were projecting 70k-ish for first week after the 40k 1st day came in.

I'm one of the few who thought D3 wouldn't be impacted much at all when we got the original PS3 announcement actually. Guess I was wrong. :lol
 
jarrod said:
But MGS is also "smaller" than Musou, Mingol or WE. DMC4's performance is impressive no doubt, but lets not forget it's basically the only HD release this gen to buck the overall trend of falling sales. Mingol, Musou, WE, VF, GT, ACore, Genji, R&C... literally nothing else on PS3 has managed to "come close" like DMC4 did.
Click to expand...
When you have a small userbase, it's easier to get 300.000 sales for a game than 1M.
 
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