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[Fafalada]

DVD Wii will probably come when HD is a little more rampant. I suspect the next Wii design will have upscaling capabilities.

Upscaling is the easy part since Wii scans out from main memory like the GC - hence you can trivially do it by software. The problem is the actual CRT chip(which doesn't have HD capability), which is embeded on the GPU, and thus makes any changes to it a rather significant redesign.

That's for DVD/Virtual console upscaling - if you mean Wii game-upscaling, you'll need to add more hw for scaling since resources will already be in use, so yea, that would be a significant hw update in itself.

DSL + 512MB internal flash + DS Channels + Virtual Handheld?

Given the past history of handheld redesigns, it seems much more important what aesthetics and other physical properties will be modified then any functional improvements.

On that note, I suppose Slim success makes my wishes for an Oled PSP really unlikely Especially since Sony doesn't seem likely to adopt multi-Sku strategy on PSP. But there's always hope that the revision 3 is a phone, which could give it price headroom needed for that fancy screen...

 

[Rolf NB]

Given the past history of handheld redesigns, it seems much more important what aesthetics and other physical properties will be modified then any functional improvements.

On that note, I suppose Slim success makes my wishes for an Oled PSP really unlikely Especially since Sony doesn't seem likely to adopt multi-Sku strategy on PSP. But there's always hope that the revision 3 is a phone, which could give it price headroom needed for that fancy screen...

I don't think the PSP will get any slimmer. It's pretty much already hitting the limitations of UMD's physical form-factor, and that medium is going to stay part of the PSP design. They can't push it off to the sides either, because the control fields need some depth under the shell to work.
All bets are off on the proper successor though.

 

[ComputerNerd]

oh PLEASE

money now > money later

Tell that to Japan's used market.

 

[Grecco]

We will get DS Slim before DS2 imo

 

[ethelred]

ethelred's game recommendations have always exceeded my expectations and since he's personally hyping that one up, I'd definitely like to see a state side release but if I recall correctly, the development team's previous efforts have never been localized.

Fragile is going to be fucking awesome, and yes, ethel has exceptional taste when it comes to RPGs.

You both raise very good points.

 

[Rolf NB]

Edit:
Do I need to break out the chart of Media-Create posts over the years? The past two weeks have been really slow.

I think that's a good sign. Things have stopped supporting people's preconceptions. The generation has developed its own shape.

Open challenge to everyone; rank the PSP, the Wii, and the DS for 2008 total sales. The tone in all of the threads this year has been generally assuming that sometime during the year the PSP will overtake the DS on a weekly basis. Does anyone think that the PSP will do better than the DS overall this year? What about the Wii? Will continued software uptake be enough to spike it up or will it lag again after the Wii Fit and Brawl Megatons are over and before Mario Kart is released?

My guess:
1. DS
2. Wii
3. PSP

for the year. I think all three will be pretty close. The DS always has the price drop card open. The Wii is more likely to spike or decline based on major titles being released. The PSP I expect to keep up very strong sales but lacking a major million seller potential this year, I don't expect to actually beat the Wii or DS. Anyone else have a prediction?

PSP=DS=Wii
The DS has to start hitting near market saturation just about now. It will continue to sell on a very respectable level, but overall sales will be down from 2007. Wii will be up somewhat, while the PSP will be up a bit more significantly. They will all end up being tied at about 5 million units total in 2008.

/guess

edited for bonus fun:
2007 will be the DS's peak, i.e. its strongest year of hardware sales. Software sales will remain roughly as strong and start declining only very slowly, at least one year later.
2008 will be the PSP's peak (same definition as above).
2009 will be the Wii's peak year.
2010 will be the PS3's peak year.

This is not supposed to say anything about the ordering of absolute sales figures, just about the shapes of the sales graph for each individual system when looked at in isolation.

Rationale: DS market saturation will be reached very soon. PSP upgrades and delicious third-party exclusives will subside soon, gating the growth of the platform. The Wii is the Wii. The PS3's price can still drop a lot of times, and probably will.

 

[Redd]

Or they delayed it a week so they would have enough supply to somewhat meet demand.

I love me some Brawl but come on it's pretty obvious they released it in the same week as DMC4 to steal some of its thunder. It's not like Nintendo can't delay it for the week after DMC4 dropped.

 

[Grecco]

I love me some Brawl but come on it's pretty obvious they released it in the same week as DMC4 to steal some of its thunder. It's not like Nintendo can't delay it for the week after DMC4 dropped.

How did the previous DMCs do in Japan?


(The delay has nothing to do with stealing dmcs thunder)

 

[Redd]

How did the previous DMCs do in Japan?


(The delay has nothing to do with stealing dmcs thunder)

I want to believe that grecco seriously but why not wait another week? It makes no sense. Personally if I worked at Nintendo I would do the same thing.

 

[Galactic Fork]

You know what I find amazing? The DS is the craziest, most successful uber-selling system since the forever, and the PSP, the second place system, is somehow also selling rather well, and looks like it could very well break 10m LTD when all is said and done.

What are we looking at here, 35m-ish handhelds sold for this HH gen in Japan? That's insane!

When's the last time, if ever, that one competitor has been so out-and-out in front, and yet the second place system still managed to perform this well in addition?

I think part of the reason this is the first time to see 2 great selling portables is how different they are. Normally, you carry your portables around, and you wouldn't normally want 2 to lug around, you'd choose 1 or the other. But the DS and PSP offer 2 completely different experiences, so it's justified to get both.

On a side note, I'm surprised at how badly Exit DS did, I always thought the play style was more fitting for the DS but it bombed horribly. How did the PSP version do?

6 titles on the chart is OK-ish, though, so maybe its Japan sales are an exception to its WW sale trends, or a harbinger of an eventual turnaround.

Unfortunately I think Japan is the software fluke. Japan has one huge killer app series, and that's MHP. If a lot of people world wide are buying them for MM purposes rather than games, then Japan has a higher % buying them for games, just because of Monster Hunter. So those people specifically are more likely to buy games.

DSL + 512MB internal flash + DS Channels + Virtual Handheld?

I think the Everybody's Nintendo channel is a precursor for this. Getting a feel of how people would take to DS DL content, but I really hope if they do make it, they don't make you access the DS channels through the Wii like Sony did with getting PS1 games on your PSP (I really don't know if you can get them on your psp without a PS3 yet).

 

[Fafalada]

I don't think the PSP will get any slimmer. It's pretty much already hitting the limitations of UMD's physical form-factor, and that medium is going to stay part of the PSP design.

Well I was talking about a new screen tech, not necesserily form factor. Although Oled screen takes significantly less space then LCD.

As for UMD - I think that IF a PSP phone happens, it will be digital distribution only, no more disc.

 

[Busaiku]

On a side note, I'm surprised at how badly Exit DS did, I always thought the play style was more fitting for the DS but it bombed horribly. How did the PSP version do?

The lowest selling game on Moor-Angol's site is at 20,112 (which I assume was from the Famitsu 500 of 2006/2005), so I'd assume less than that, since it doesn't appear on the chart.

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

How did the previous DMCs do in Japan?

Here's what I've got from old Famitsu data.
If you sum them up, they end up higher than SSBM, but lower than SSB.

 

[reilo]

4. PS3 - 34,363 | 38,117 | 175,570

Still holding steady. Really thought it would hit below 30K this week.

Hardware predictions for DMC4 week?

 

[Rolf NB]

4. PS3 - 34,363 | 38,117 | 175,570

Still holding steady. Really thought it would hit below 30K this week.

Hardware predictions for DMC4 week?

55k, including 15k bundle packs.
moderate-expectations.gif
/prediction

 

[Neo C.]

when can we expect SSBX first day sales figure?

 

[Xeke]

Oh come on people. The DS hasn't even seen a price drop in Japan yet.:lol

 

[Tideas]

Oh come on people. The DS hasn't even seen a price drop in Japan yet.:lol

and the PSP is still more expensive than the DS. Think of what happens when the PSP is priced the same as the DS!

 

[The Faceless Master]

Juiced 2?

really???

 

[Tenbatsu]

and the PSP is still more expensive than the DS. Think of what happens when the PSP is priced the same as the DS!

I predict the DS will have new colors and a price drop when that happens.

 

[Xeke]

and the PSP is still more expensive than the DS. Think of what happens when the PSP is priced the same as the DS!

Considering that Sony isn't going to make much money off software on the PSP there is no real reason for them to lower the price to make less profit on the hardware.

 

[dr3upmushroom]

17th

Sorry, I mean't to say in the top 10.

 

[Shiggy]

So where are the new Dragon Quest and the third Pokemon game? The DS needs them

 

[Ristlager]

Do you think the PSP actually will compete with the DS this year? Inthinkable as it is...

EDIT: Beaten several times, damn

 

[HyperionX]

Do you think the PSP actually will compete with the DS this year? Inthinkable as it is...

It's already competing with the DS this year. The only question is whether it will beat the DS this year.

 

[AnimeTheme]

Or they delayed it a week so they would have enough supply to somewhat meet demand.

It's more like there were really some bug issues for Nintendo to fix. Shinobi reported that there were issues with the system update on the Brawl disc.

 

[Innotech]

the PSP wont beat the DS, but it might continue to sell well.
the DS has DQ9 coming. in Japan thats like dropping an Hbomb on Sony HQ.

 

[AnimeTheme]

http://ameblo.jp/sinobi/

First-day sales:

Wii SSBB - 500k (80% sell-thru)
Wii Family Ski - 10k

PS3 DMC4 - 140k (60% sell-thru)

XB360 DMC4 - 30k (60% sell-thru)

Not all new games are reported (yet) it seems.

 

[Weisheit]

http://ameblo.jp/sinobi/

First-day sales:

Wii SSBB - 500k (80% sell-thru)
Wii Family Ski - 10k

PS3 DMC4 - 140k (60% sell-thru)

XB360 DMC4 - 30k (60% sell-thru)

Not all new games are reported (yet) it seems.

:lol Holy shit.

 

[_Alkaline_]

http://ameblo.jp/sinobi/

First-day sales:

Wii SSBB - 500k (80% sell-thru)

:O

 

[Kurosaki Ichigo]

That 170k for DMC4 first day nearly beats DMC3 first week already (183k).

 

[reilo]

http://ameblo.jp/sinobi/

First-day sales:

Wii SSBB - 500k (80% sell-thru)
Wii Family Ski - 10k

PS3 DMC4 - 140k (60% sell-thru)

XB360 DMC4 - 30k (60% sell-thru)

Not all new games are reported (yet) it seems.

500 FUCKING K?

Wow.

Good sales all around. PS3 DMC4 exceeding expectations, no? Didn't Donny predict 90k for the entire WEEK?

Question: Will DMC4 exceed Gundam or HSG5 [whichever is the best selling PS3 title right now] for PS3 in lifetime sales in Japan?

 

[nextgeneration]

http://ameblo.jp/sinobi/

First-day sales:

Wii SSBB - 500k (80% sell-thru)
Wii Family Ski - 10k

PS3 DMC4 - 140k (60% sell-thru)

XB360 DMC4 - 30k (60% sell-thru)

Not all new games are reported (yet) it seems.

Holy crap at SSBB and holy crap at DMC4 as well!

 

[AnimeTheme]

That 170k for DMC4 first day nearly beats DMC3 first week already (183k).

It's very likely that DMC4 LTD will outsell DMC3. Maybe even the PS3 version alone can achieve that.

 

[Rolf NB]

http://ameblo.jp/sinobi/

First-day sales:

Wii SSBB - 500k (80% sell-thru)

Holy fucking shit!
*hugs Japan*

Wii Family Ski - 10k

...
*hugs Japan*

PS3 DMC4 - 140k (60% sell-thru)

XB360 DMC4 - 30k (60% sell-thru)

Oo!
*huuuuugs Japan*

edit: almost nailed it, too

I'd assume it will sell to much of the same base that also bought Ninja Gaiden Sigma, but then that was in the middle of last year and the install-base has grown significantly (doubled? tripled? too lazy to check, shoot me) since then, and the 360 version will probably contribute another 20~40k, and a guesstimated 15k from bundles.
Combining everything, I call 165k first week, 250k within the quarter.

 

[Nutter]

It's very likely that DMC4 LTD will outsell DMC3. Maybe even the PS3 version alone can achieve that.

That Gundam game opened at 170k, and I think its still under 350k?
So no. I do not see DMC hanging on.

 

[wazoo]

the PSP wont beat the DS, but it might continue to sell well.
the DS has DQ9 coming. in Japan thats like dropping an Hbomb on Sony HQ.

Do you expect DQIX having a significant impact on sales ??

DS is already at 20M+ sales, what portion of the DQ market is not already on board ??

 

[Baron Doggystyle von Woof]

hardcore games win.

 

[Tenbatsu]

Impressive for Smash!!

 

[Neo C.]

So basically, donny was right.

 

[reilo]

So basically, donny was right.

Well, not to call out donny or anything, but he was quite wrong - at least in DMC4s case:

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=9453537&postcount=92

 

[Weisheit]

Do you expect DQIX having a significant impact on sales ??

DS is already at 20M+ sales, what portion of the DQ market is not already on board ??

Why do people keep saying this, there are 120m+ people in Japan. Big game releases (like DQ) tend to cause large spikes in hardware sales, it's not that difficult to comprehend.

 

[AnimeTheme]

More first-day sales:

Sega Rally REVO - 5k (PS3:2k, XB360:1.6k, PSP:1k, 10% sell-thru)

PS2 Haruhi - 100k
PS2 Tales of Destiny DC - 70k

 

[Neo C.]

Well, not to call out donny or anything, but he was quite wrong - at least in DMC4s case:

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=9453537&postcount=92

He underestimated the userbase of PS3, it seems the fanbase of DMC is bigger than expected.

Though he was right about SSBX. After SMG, I didn't expect such a high sellthrough.

 

[Rancid Mildew]

Very very impressive on all fronts.

Smash will probably have long legs. 500k and 80% sell through are way over my expectations shortly after Mario Galaxy. I guess 40/40 from Famitsu and everything Sakurai has done actually makes a huge difference. I hope this joins Nintendo's pantheon of consistent and big sellers and makes them think hiring over thirty composers is essential .

Also, I am sure Capcom is very happy with these DMC4 numbers as well. One would think Brawl's tremendous success would have somewhat dented those numbers but obviously, it didn't. It won't have legs anywhere near Brawl's though. And it's pretty clear going multi-plat was the right decision.

 

[Kurosaki Ichigo]

More first-day sales:

Sega Rally REVO - 5k (PS3:2k, PSP:1.6k, XB360:1k, 10% sell through)

PS2 Haruhi - 105k (LE 80k (over 80% sell through), Normal 25k)
PS2 Tales of Destiny DC - 70k (LE 60k, Normal 10k, 60% sell through)

fixed

sinobi comments that Tales shipment was 100k although Namco previously said 200k. I think you all remember me saying what the hell were they thinking shipping that much.

 

[mabuza]

disgaea 3

 

[Laguna]

DMC4 did well compared to DM3 but it isn´t that surpring looking at Capcoms very big marketing push. What expectations did Namco have for Tals of again? I remember they were very high (again).

 

[Kurosaki Ichigo]

PS3 Disgaea 3 - 40k (LE 20k, Normal 20k)
PS3 Assassins Creed - 20k

Disgaea 2 first day was 70k and Creed PS3 over Creed 360 despite 2 months delay.

 

[Loudninja]

500k is very very good,and thats only day One, 140,000k for DMC4 on the PS3 is great as well.

PS3 Disgaea 3 - 40k

Not bad as I thought, but not great