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Microsoft / Activision Deal Approval Watch |OT| (MS/ABK close)

Do you believe the deal will be approved?


  • Total voters
    886
  • Poll closed .
Status
Not open for further replies.

RickMasters

Member
Per Microsoft’s SEC filings on the merger, regulatory approval must be unanimous. Doesn’t matter if the UK is the lone hold out, it’s still blocked. The only option will be for Microsoft to appeal and hope they can pursuade CAT that the CMA were just being idiots, and kick the ball back to the CMA for round two (or is it three at this point?) of negotiations and concessions.

The CAT appeal process alone may take 12-18 months. Even if it’s successful, which, again, the odds are slim, the CMA could easily decide to block the deal again for similar, or completely different, grounds. Or they could accept the concessions and let it go through.

But you’re still looking at a matter of years. Years that shareholders of either Microsoft or Activision may not want to bother with.
yeah...sounds like a pain in the ass.
 

POKEYCLYDE

Member
They have no bearing on winning the appeal part of the problem - that is the prerequisite for it to get sent back to the CMA for another review, with that as a new (weak) argument.

The "irrationality" appeal has nothing to do with the remedy chosen, the CAT aren't interested in those specifics, merely whether the CMA did the job they are legally charged to do in assessing mergers and acquisitions, whether they need to send them back to do the process again without errors. The EC process being similar - but using EU data/concerns, rather than UK data and concerns - supports the argument by the CMA that the process they used met all the required standards and is immune to " I don't like the result" appeal challenges.

This is all explained on the CMA or CAT website.
Illegality, procedurally impropriety and irrationality.

What does the irrationality cover? What arguments fall under irrationality?

I'll help you out a bit:
79Ghj16.jpg


Irrationality directly includes comparison to other regulators. Which could include remedy chosen, no?
 

jonnyp

Member
Your account is over ten years old, yet you have been active for roughly 15-16 months AND only post to shill Microsoft? Are you a Senjutsu alt? Are you one of Darkmage's many astroturfs or do just believe the sweet sweet kool aid of Phil Spender?

Why is it only Microsoft ‘fans’ that have 50 posts since 2014 who come out of the woodwork only to shill for Microsoft?

Ben, is that you?

Also, none of them can even be arsed to add a profile picture - it’s almost as if they’re not actually here to make organic contributions due to a love of video games.

It's really strange that as soon as one is banned, new ones suddenly pop up... it's like cutting the head off a hydra and two new heads appear...

What did I ever do to you? 😂

robocop-clarence-boddicker.gif
 

Bernoulli

M2 slut
Illegality, procedurally impropriety and irrationality.

What does the irrationality cover? What arguments fall under irrationality?

I'll help you out a bit:
79Ghj16.jpg


Irrationality directly includes comparison to other regulators. Which could include remedy chosen, no?
It's over then for Microsoft because the CMA has reached the same conclusion as the EC
CAT doesn't care about remedies
 

Bernoulli

M2 slut
Per Microsoft’s SEC filings on the merger, regulatory approval must be unanimous. Doesn’t matter if the UK is the lone hold out, it’s still blocked. The only option will be for Microsoft to appeal and hope they can pursuade CAT that the CMA were just being idiots, and kick the ball back to the CMA for round two (or is it three at this point?) of negotiations and concessions.

The CAT appeal process alone may take 12-18 months. Even if it’s successful, which, again, the odds are slim, the CMA could easily decide to block the deal again for similar, or completely different, grounds. Or they could accept the concessions and let it go through.

But you’re still looking at a matter of years. Years that shareholders of either Microsoft or Activision may not want to bother with.
And the only way for Microsoft to "leave" the UK is to make a new deal with Activision that doesn't require the CMA approval , so go over all the regulators for approval again
But just doing that wil raise redflags and will bring more blocks
 

PaintTinJr

Member
Illegality, procedurally impropriety and irrationality.

What does the irrationality cover? What arguments fall under irrationality?

I'll help you out a bit:
79Ghj16.jpg


Irrationality directly includes comparison to other regulators. Which could include remedy chosen, no?
The decision is whether it is an SLC situation or not, not whether the remedies are liked by the merger parties from the decision.
 

POKEYCLYDE

Member
The decision is whether it is an SLC situation or not, not whether the remedies are liked by the merger parties from the decision.
It's over then for Microsoft because the CMA has reached the same conclusion as the EC
CAT doesn't care about remedies
QHIUdQi.jpg


You don't think "decision" covers remedy as well? Why narrowly define it to SLC and disregard remedy chosen?
 

ReBurn

Gold Member
Sure, but clearly he is lumping all regulatory bodies together for effect. Microsoft is obvioulsy not going to stop investing in UK because of this decision.

Oh, I agree. They won't completely stop investing. But backing a single startup doesn't prove that their overall investment won't be reduced.

Regulatory decisions that are seen by the corporate world as stifling usually play out in reduced overall investment from the companies impacted by regulation. When its time to renew leases or re-evaluate supplier contracts or consolidate operations or hire people it's entirely in the realm of possibility that Microsoft will find alternatives outside of the UK somewhere in the EU that's more friendly to them. The CMA may be doing the right thing for the right reason but it doesn't mean there won't be longer term blowback.
 

GHG

Gold Member
Oh, I agree. They won't completely stop investing. But backing a single startup doesn't prove that their overall investment won't be reduced.

Regulatory decisions that are seen by the corporate world as stifling usually play out in reduced overall investment from the companies impacted by regulation. When its time to renew leases or re-evaluate supplier contracts or consolidate operations or hire people it's entirely in the realm of possibility that Microsoft will find alternatives outside of the UK somewhere in the EU that's more friendly to them. The CMA may be doing the right thing for the right reason but it doesn't mean there won't be longer term blowback.

How are you defining "the corporate world" here?

Because outside of the huge businesses that tend to engage in transactions of a size that require regulatory scrutiny I struggle to see how this is a factor for anyone else.
 

adamsapple

Or is it just one of Phil's balls in my throat?
Illegality, procedurally impropriety and irrationality.

What does the irrationality cover? What arguments fall under irrationality?

I'll help you out a bit:
79Ghj16.jpg


Irrationality directly includes comparison to other regulators. Which could include remedy chosen, no?

Interesting, I didn't know about the "that no reasonable competition authority could have reached the same decision in the same situation" part.

The EU approval, regardless of whether they had the same concerns as CMA, reached a different verdict and is a viable case point for the CAT appeal.
 

PaintTinJr

Member
QHIUdQi.jpg


You don't think "decision" covers remedy as well? Why narrowly define it to SLC and disregard remedy chosen?
Because I'm pretty sure it says on the CAT website they have nothing to do with the remedies, and unfavourable remedies aren't grounds for an appeal.

The CMA is evidence led and makes those decision based on following the process with an expert analysis group. The CMA and CAT are anti-merger as their starting point, so on balance of probabilities as is their methodology, as Cardwell mentioned when speaking to the government committee the other day, if you are already that close to being an SLC issue, the balance is already tipped and any remedies the CMA analysis group deem necessary aren't too much in the CAT's view, at best they'll send it back for a second consideration, but materially the remedies rarely change even on successful appeal.
 

PaintTinJr

Member
Interesting, I didn't know about the "that no reasonable competition authority could have reached the same decision in the same situation" part.

The EU approval, regardless of whether they had the same concerns as CMA, reached a different verdict and is a viable case point for the CAT appeal.
It isn't because Brad's pie chart evidences that it is a completely different market landscape to the UK or US for Microsoft in gaming.

If the EU wasn't 27 nations with an average GDP way below £3T and was instead just one and the 2nd largest gaming country in the world for high-end gaming and expected to be the same for high-end cloud gaming then maybe, just maybe you could use that argument.
 

Bojanglez

The Amiga Brotherhood
They don't directly. But there's tons of empirical evidence that businesses won't invest in places with an unfavorable regulatory or legal environment. The decisions regulators make factor into the decisions of companies that do business there.
The argument for regulation like this is that it gives UK startups a chance to thrive before the market is consumed by 'Big Tech'. This actively encourages investment in UK startups, companies that actually can generate new jobs in the UK which often spawn from our universities (which is a growing sector they wish to keep thriving). I would much rather create an environment where competition is encouraged from the ground up and a natural competitive market is formed which is more likely to keep itself in check, rather than encourage a 'land grab' by bigger companies that then has to be constantly monitored and governed by fines because of abuse.

If you look at the EC (and the EU as a whole), they are incentivised to grow the 'state' apparatus, because it keeps them all in work and the concept of the EU relevant. They can threaten smaller countries making them think they would never be able to stand up to big corporations by themselves and therefore need institutions like the EC to look after them. Each time they fine a company they make a big song and dance about it, as if they are doing such a great job. But it is kind of like a doctor that has a cure for cancer, instead letting it grow so it can then make more money by a patient relying on the medicine. Prevention is better than the cure, and should always be explored first.

I'm not saying there is no merit to the EC and their approach, due to their size they can do things like force companies to adopt standards that can benefit consumers, I just like to keep a healthy level of skepticism.
 

Ogbert

Member
Because I'm pretty sure it says on the CAT website they have nothing to do with the remedies, and unfavourable remedies aren't grounds for an appeal.

The CMA is evidence led and makes those decision based on following the process with an expert analysis group. The CMA and CAT are anti-merger as their starting point, so on balance of probabilities as is their methodology, as Cardwell mentioned when speaking to the government committee the other day, if you are already that close to being an SLC issue, the balance is already tipped and any remedies the CMA analysis group deem necessary aren't too much in the CAT's view, at best they'll send it back for a second consideration, but materially the remedies rarely change even on successful appeal.
The CAT process is effectively a form of judicial review.

The best way to think of it is a ‘legal audit’. So rather than the substance of the decision, it’s looking to ensure that process was followed and the facts of the case were correct.

You’re right that the remedies, in and of themselves, aren’t up for discussion. But MS will be probably be looking to demonstrate that CAM was mistaken in points of fact and that led to the unreasonable decision.

So they’re reviewing the chicken rather than the egg.
 

Topher

Identifies as young
Oh, I agree. They won't completely stop investing. But backing a single startup doesn't prove that their overall investment won't be reduced.

Regulatory decisions that are seen by the corporate world as stifling usually play out in reduced overall investment from the companies impacted by regulation. When its time to renew leases or re-evaluate supplier contracts or consolidate operations or hire people it's entirely in the realm of possibility that Microsoft will find alternatives outside of the UK somewhere in the EU that's more friendly to them. The CMA may be doing the right thing for the right reason but it doesn't mean there won't be longer term blowback.

Sure, but a single decision on an acquisition isn't impacting overall investment either. We all know there are a plethora of real regulations that impact existing business and investment. Labor and environmental regulations impact investment on a greater scale than this decision. There is a bit of grandstanding going on here from politicians, I think.
 

PaintTinJr

Member
Last edited:

Topher

Identifies as young
  • Appeals on the merits in respect of decisions made under the Competition Act 1998 by the Competition and Markets Authority ("the CMA") and the regulators in the telecommunications, electricity, gas, water, railways, air traffic services, payment systems, healthcare services and financial services sectors.

Also....not finding specifics about what decisions this is talking about, but.....

Which decisions may be appealed under the Competition Act?
Sections 46(3) and 47(1) of the Competition Act contain lists of decisions taken by the CMA (or sectoral regulator) which may be subject to an appeal to the Tribunal. These include any decision as to:

Whether the Chapter I prohibition has been infringed;
Whether the prohibition in Article 101 of the TFEU has been infringed;
Whether the Chapter II prohibition has been infringed;
Whether the prohibition in Article 102 of the TFEU has been infringed;
The acceptance, release, non-release or variation of commitments under section 31A of the Competition Act;
The imposition of any penalty under section 36 of the Competition Act or as to the amount of any such penalty.

The Tribunal's powers in respect of appeals under the Competition Act

The Tribunal has wide powers to determine most appeals under the Competition Act on their merits and may:

-Confirm or set aside all or part of the decision;
-Remit the matter to the CMA (or the sectoral regulator);
-Impose, revoke or vary the amount of any penalty;
-Give such directions, or take such other steps as the CMA (or sectoral regulator) could have given or taken, or
-Make any other decision which the CMA (or sectoral regulator) could have made.
-If the Tribunal confirms the decision which is the subject of the appeal it may nevertheless set aside any finding of fact on which the decision was based.

 
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PaintTinJr

Member
Reluctant is a key word.
You are just being obtuse when you know this is paraphrasing what is definitely written on the CAT website somewhere in a document explaining the appeals process and what outcomes to expect.

If you think that is real wiggle room, then it feels like you are astroturfing a narrative like Florian is to keep the idea of a CMA U-turn appeal alive, when it is long since dead.

After seeing the frustrated look on Cardell and her colleagues face when MP Bim was asking all the questions Microsoft would have wanted asked at the committee meeting to apply pressure for business. Any CAT appeal asking the CMA to review the case is just going to see the CMA follow the same procedure and conclude the same (or worse as xcloud/GPU is growing) result again.
 
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ReBurn

Gold Member
How are you defining "the corporate world" here?

Because outside of the huge businesses that tend to engage in transactions of a size that require regulatory scrutiny I struggle to see how this is a factor for anyone else.
You struggle to see it because you can't seem to see beyond this one acquisition. The corporate world doesn't need quotes around it. It is literally every company in existence. But if that's too large for you we can limit it to tech companies. Companies don't flock to areas that are unfriendly to their business. They tend to reduce their investments or just leave because there's usually some other city, town, region, etc. that will allow what the other won't.

With the CMA targeting large tech companies like Microsoft and Meta primarily because they are large it sets a precedent that the UK is not friendly to tech. Most tech startups happen with the expectation that at some point there will be a big payout when a larger company acquires them or they IPO. That's how they secure funding. Most don't make it to IPO. If acquisitions by large tech companies are off the table in the UK then someone with an idea to sell will incorporate somewhere else and those nascent markets will manifest elsewhere.
 

93xfan

Banned
Like it or not, it is not the CMA that is bundling their cloud service with Game Pass. That decision is exclusively Microsoft's. If you are a subscriber to Game Pass Ultimate, you have access to xCloud, and therefore you are also a cloud user. If this explanation does not help, see below.

If I subscribe to Netflix and don't use it, what would you call me? Am I not a subscriber of Netflix since I am not using the service?
It’s more like saying all Amazon Prime subscribers are music and game streamers, since it give you access to their music and game streaming.

Most people don’t use these extra features regularly if at all.

It’s up to the CMA to have the intelligence to understand this.
 
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Thirty7ven

Banned
It’s more like saying all Amazon Prime subscribers are music and game streamers, since it give you access to their music and game streaming.

Most people don’t use these extra features regularly if at all.

It’s up to the CMA to accurately understand the situation.


Comparisons to Amazon prime are specially bad because Gamepass is specifically a games subscription nothing else.
 
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Pelta88

Member
Soon... Rishi Sunak will have a quiet word with the CMA because Microsoft sent him a threat about business in the UK. If they don't let XBOX get COD.




How am I doing?
 

PaintTinJr

Member
You struggle to see it because you can't seem to see beyond this one acquisition. The corporate world doesn't need quotes around it. It is literally every company in existence. But if that's too large for you we can limit it to tech companies. Companies don't flock to areas that are unfriendly to their business. They tend to reduce their investments or just leave because there's usually some other city, town, region, etc. that will allow what the other won't.

With the CMA targeting large tech companies like Microsoft and Meta primarily because they are large it sets a precedent that the UK is not friendly to tech. Most tech startups happen with the expectation that at some point there will be a big payout when a larger company acquires them or they IPO. That's how they secure funding. Most don't make it to IPO. If acquisitions by large tech companies are off the table in the UK then someone with an idea to sell will incorporate somewhere else and those nascent markets will manifest elsewhere.
Have I lost the thread somewhere? Are we now saying that ATVI @$70b is a young start-up that had a killer idea and now can't get their pay day?

Please tell me you see the difference between a company like Oxford University start-up AudioMotion that was successfully acquired for lots of money to ATVI, that is being blocked?
 

wolffy66

Member
Per Microsoft’s SEC filings on the merger, regulatory approval must be unanimous. Doesn’t matter if the UK is the lone hold out, it’s still blocked. The only option will be for Microsoft to appeal and hope they can pursuade CAT that the CMA were just being idiots, and kick the ball back to the CMA for round two (or is it three at this point?) of negotiations and concessions.

The CAT appeal process alone may take 12-18 months. Even if it’s successful, which, again, the odds are slim, the CMA could easily decide to block the deal again for similar, or completely different, grounds. Or they could accept the concessions and let it go through.

But you’re still looking at a matter of years. Years that shareholders of either Microsoft or Activision may not want to bother with.
Sec agreements can be amended by simply agreement in writing between the original signees
 

reinking

Gold Member
So far there isn't any fun info. Boring as usual.
The only real fun we have to look forward to is the CAT ruling on appeal and CMA decision if it goes back to them. Regardless of the fantasies about MS pulling out of the UK, or some how going around the CMA , that is currently the end of the deal.
 

feynoob

Banned
I wonder how Sony is gonna prepare itself for future cloud gaming.
It's inevitable that cloud gaming is going to replace consoles in the future as it's the most effective way to reach a lot of customers. Especially now that we have smart tvs and the ability to have your own streaming app.
 

Nydius

Member
Sec agreements can be amended by simply agreement in writing between the original signees
Please, for the love of Christ, leave these braindead responses on Twitter where they belong with the rest of the low IQ Xbox shills.

This agreement cannot be amended until it reaches its conclusion in July at which point both parties have to decide whether to extend the agreement or not.
 
Like it or not, it is not the CMA that is bundling their cloud service with Game Pass. That decision is exclusively Microsoft's. If you are a subscriber to Game Pass Ultimate, you have access to xCloud, and therefore you are also a cloud user. If this explanation does not help, see below.

If I subscribe to Netflix and don't use it, what would you call me? Am I not a subscriber of Netflix since I am not using the service?

If you are a subscriber to Amazon Prime, you have access to Luna and therefore you are also a cloud user.
 
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